I’ll try to carry over my egriz posts more often here!
So, I took a quick peek at my picks on GGG’s site, 6/6! Alright! I actually didn’t think I got them all, but my scores weren’t that accurate, although I was hoping I’d be close with the Griz game, my prediction was 35-21, unfortunately when it was 35-24 CWU didn’t feel like cooperating with my point spread!
MSU @ ISU: This one is TOUGH to call. ISU battled like heck against EWU, however EWU’s defense is becoming increasingly suspect, giving up 312 passing yards to ISU. ISU really shot themselves in the foot though, with almost 150 penalty yards, only 81 yards rushing, and an int taken back for 6. MSU looked incredibly steady in their win, again I had them holding USD without a TD which was good until late. MSU’s D was pretty darn good, quite frankly I’m surprised USD scored 3 times even late. We have a matchup of ISU’s horrid defense (almost 500 ypg) but good passing offense (277 ypg passing) and MSU’s great defense (less than 300 ypg / 176 ypg passing allowed) and their not-so-great offense (327 ypg). MSU is 2-0 in their last two trips to Holt one game was close and low scoring, the other was a bit of a shoot-out. However, for some reason I’m thinking the ISU passing game will be just a little more crisp at home and eek out a win 28-24 ISU.
Sac @ NAU: NAU has really not lived up to their hype, intercepting a pass in the endzone to beat SUU and then last week – they intercepted a UNC 2-point conversion at the end of the game and took it the other way for 2 points. UNC scored late, went for the win but wound up throwing the pick that went the other way. Meanwhile Sac St welcomed back QB Jason Smith and RB Bryan Hilliard who both had big games against a porous PSU defense. Sac is surprisingly good on offense and very strong on rush defense (75 ypg). Meanwhile NAU only has allowed an average of 9 ypg rushing (last two games against SUU and UNC were netting negative yards). NAU’s offense is wicked good, over 475 ypg. Sac is better than UNC and SUU, I like their team now that they’re more healthy, and I think that NAU’s luck-streak is going to run out, Sac wins 31-20.
EWU @ PSU: Mwwahahaha, buh-bye PSU, right? Well… maybe. What’s happened to EWU’s defense? They’re giving up an AVERAGE of 371 ypg passing – that’s insane!!! Add in another 103.5 ypg in rushing, their defense is baaad right now. Meanwhile PSU is passing for almost 360 ypg. Granted PSU’s defense is equally as poor (allowing 482 ypg total, compared to EWU’s 474.5 ypg allowed). This game has the makings of an aerial shootout much like last year’s PSU/Weber game. EWU has one good advantage, they can run the ball, PSU doesn’t believe in running it. I like EWU with a more balanced attack in a game where there might be hardly any punts, Eags win 52-42.
UNC @ UC Davis: A head-scratcher for sure. The Bears are the heartbreak kids, they’re 0-3 but two of those losses came just as time expired. They actually have a decent looking passing game, however their defense seems awfully weak still (410 ypg allowed). UCD came out flat and beat up this last week in a loss to Northeastern – however Northeastern lost to Georgia Southern in overtime and to Syracuse by just 9. I think Davis rebounds at home, and passes all over UNC, winning 38 – 21.
UM @ Weber: Jury’s out – I can see this going either way. Looking at Weber, they flat out get it done on offense, passing for more than 300 ypg, and with a rock solid work-horse RB in Trevyn Smith. Their WR corps are these short little guys that just burn up the field. Their defense hasn’t shown anything incredible though, only 4 turnovers in 4 games. They allow over 350 ypg. Meanwhile the Griz love the nail-biters, if they go -4 in turnovers against Weber that game won’t only be a loss for the Griz, it’ll be a blowout. Montana’s rush D is darn good, the pass D… well, uh… it’s ok. That’s where they get beat deep, but keep in mind all of the WRs that have beat the Griz secondary have been big tall possession WRs. Does height make all the difference? No, but it matters. Our corners will have to keep up with these guys, I’m expecting a lot more of the 3-4 with the 3-saftey package out there. Also Weber gives up close to 135 rushing per game, if the Griz OL can cut down the penalties and open gaps, I see a big night for Chase. Game plan will be to keep Weber off the field, I say in a very tight and hard-hitting game the Griz escape once again 21-20.