2010/11 Recap
The Hornets were coming into the 2010-11 season off of a much improved 2009-10 campaign that saw this program become competitive in almost every game. Expectations were high for a team that had 3 returning starters, 2 players coming off of a redshirt season, and another full offseason of recruiting to continue to build on. Unfortunately the season got off to a tough loss in overtime which set the tone for the season. The Hornets struggled to find some wins and it didn’t take long before the losses started to mount. The improvement that fans hoped to see didn’t happen and the program continued to struggle under Coach Katz.
When Big Sky play began, the Hornets did look as they were poised to get off to a good start but couldn’t win games in the late moments and lost some close games in overtime. The Hornets then struggled against the top teams and didn’t find victory until they faced the struggling conference teams at home. When it was all said and done, the Hornets were only able to improve upon last season’s BSC win total by 1 and the Hornets failed to qualify for the BSC Tournament.
The season had its ups and downs and the Hornets did have some moments where they played well and really looked like they were finally getting things together. However the Hornets weren’t able to find a breakthrough and couldn’t sustain the successful team play on the road. Overall the Hornets fell short of the expectations. The Hornets finished with a 7-21 overall record and went 5-11 in conference play.
Key Wins (in chronological order)
Team Stats (Rankings based on per game averages from regular season play, stats taken from the BSC website)
Individual Stats (averages less than 0.5 xpg are not listed, stats taken from espn.com)
Offensively we are not seeing Katz’ make adjustments to exploit in-game advantages the Hornets may have. Very few plays are called to open up something inside (like a back door cut along the baseline or screens to mix up defensive assignments and create a mismatch) and the ball is just dumped inside to someone in the post for either a forced shot or a pass back to the perimeter. The team offense is not aggressive and the typical game plan has been a perimeter attack in which the Hornets have struggled. A guard that can drive to the hoop and create a scoring chance is needed, but without this Katz should have some plays that have the chance to give players some looks at a good shot by using screens, pick and rolls, give and go’s, or anything to make the opposing defense rotate and adjust to defend the play/shot. The Hornets have struggled to score under the current game plan and unless the perimeter shooting improves, these struggles will always persist under this scheme.
Defensively the Hornets have struggled to stop an opponent’s key player. I don’t know if that is due to the lack of athleticism on the roster or just poor preparation and scouting by the coaching staff; but time after time the defense has failed to lock in on a key player and force the ball out of their hands. The Hornets did have some success with a full court press but this was used infrequently. I would hope to see more traps, press, and double teams to try and force the ball out of the key players’ hands and force other opponent’s players to step up and beat the Hornets.
Players Leaving
Starters:
On the recruiting side of things, this is the first time Katz has an experienced and athletic roster returning. He only has a limited number of roster spots/scholarships so hopefully he used this opportunity to focus on some good high school talent that will contribute sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the handful of incoming players be about a 50-50 split between HS guys and JC guys. Katz has been good about increasing the amount of HS players on the roster and I hope this continues.
Potential Opponents
Coming off another season filled with struggles, Katz will need to schedule teams who finished in the middle or near the bottom of their conference. I thought this season’s schedule was pretty good in that it had a lot of winnable OOC games on them. My issue with this season’s schedule was that it had a lot of travel and there weren’t a lot of regional games and few home games. Here is my list of pipe dream programs to schedule, I kept it regional and hopefully a SoCal road trip is scheduled so Katz can develop an in with recruiting down here:
WAC:
I expected this program to be around .500 for the season and show some significant progress in performance and production. The Hornets had a very manageable out of conference schedule that featured other struggling programs and I expected more wins. I also expected the Hornets to significantly exceed last season’s BSC win total and be in contention for a BSC Tournament berth especially since PSU was ineligible for post season play and the Hornets only needed to be better than two other BSC programs. The Hornets finished 1 win better in BSC play but had a deplorable OOC showing. With 5 returning players who were familiar with his schemes and coaching style, and the close games in the 2009-10 season in which Katz should have learned a lot from, there is no excuse for the lack of improvement this season.
Katz will be entering his 4th season as the head coach and imo it will be a make or break season for him. This upcoming season will really tell us what to expect for the remainder of his tenure here. What we do know is that Katz needs to change something in order to find success because what he has been doing the past 3 seasons hasn’t worked. Whether that is some changes on the coaching staff, changes in game preparation, or game style/plan changes; Katz will need to find a way to win and show that he is improving this program.
There is still hope and time for Katz to turn this program around. With a core group of players returning and the roster being such that Katz can focus on quality rather than quantity on the recruiting trail; there will be plenty of opportunity to find success.
As always feel free to add you input and comments.
Go Hornets!
The Hornets were coming into the 2010-11 season off of a much improved 2009-10 campaign that saw this program become competitive in almost every game. Expectations were high for a team that had 3 returning starters, 2 players coming off of a redshirt season, and another full offseason of recruiting to continue to build on. Unfortunately the season got off to a tough loss in overtime which set the tone for the season. The Hornets struggled to find some wins and it didn’t take long before the losses started to mount. The improvement that fans hoped to see didn’t happen and the program continued to struggle under Coach Katz.
When Big Sky play began, the Hornets did look as they were poised to get off to a good start but couldn’t win games in the late moments and lost some close games in overtime. The Hornets then struggled against the top teams and didn’t find victory until they faced the struggling conference teams at home. When it was all said and done, the Hornets were only able to improve upon last season’s BSC win total by 1 and the Hornets failed to qualify for the BSC Tournament.
The season had its ups and downs and the Hornets did have some moments where they played well and really looked like they were finally getting things together. However the Hornets weren’t able to find a breakthrough and couldn’t sustain the successful team play on the road. Overall the Hornets fell short of the expectations. The Hornets finished with a 7-21 overall record and went 5-11 in conference play.
Key Wins (in chronological order)
- • 71-67 vs Cal Poly: The only D-1 OOC victory in a game where 4 Hornets scored double digits. CP finished 2nd in the Big West regular season.
• 57-55 vs EWU: The Hornets finally pulled out a win in a close game. An 11 point lead was squandered but a last second layup by Duro was the difference.
• 74-63 vs ISU: The Hornets had a good all around performance as 4 Hornets scored in double digits.
• 63-55 vs PSU: The Hornets led most of the way but allowed PSU to keep it close. Fortunately the Hornets made some timely shots and dominated the glass in a gutsy performance that resulted in victory.
• 74-72 at MSU: The Hornets got a road win in a game where they led most of the way and had a very good all around team performance.
- • 80-78 vs CSU Bakersfield: The Hornets let a double digit lead melt away and lost in OT. This loss set the tone for the season and got the Hornets off to a terrible start. Bakersfield went on to post a 9-21 overall record.
• 64-60 @ North Dakota: A close road loss to a team that had predominately underclassmen starting. The Hornet road woes only continued throughout the season. UND went on to have a respectable season with an overall record of 16-14.
• 61-54 vs “the farm extension”: Katz’ first lost to them. What makes it worse is their program is in complete meltdown mode under Gary Stewart as they went on to finish at the bottom of the Big West. This loss was a complete embarrassment.
• 65-63 @ McNeese State: Another OT loss in a game where the Hornets had a double digit lead. McNeese went 19-10 on the season.
• 88-79 @ EWU: Hornets battled from behind to turn this foul-fest into a game. The Hornets had a late lead as well as a chance to win the game on their last possession in regulation but had no idea what to do and were blown out in OT.
• 68-60 @ ISU: See above, yes it really played out just like the EWU game minus all the fouls.
• 61-59 vs Montana State: See above. Hornets blow a late lead only this time the loss occurred in regulation time instead of OT.
• 77-72 vs UNC: UNC jumped out to a double digit lead but the Hornets battled back and put forth a solid effort that made this game close at the end.
• 86-80 @ PSU: PSU torched the Hornets from behind the arc and jumped out to a large lead. The Hornets made it a game late but were unable find a win on the road.
• 73-70 vs WSU: The Hornets fell behind early and played catch-up the rest of the way. The Hornets pulled close but were unable to take a late lead.
Team Stats (Rankings based on per game averages from regular season play, stats taken from the BSC website)
- • Scoring Offense: 61.8 ppg (9th BSC, 312th D-1)
• Scoring Defense: 69.6 ppg (6th BSC)
• Scoring Margin: -7.8 (9th BSC)
• Offensive Field Goal %: 593/1479, 40.1% (9th BSC, 314th D-1)
• Defensive Field Goal %: 688/1562, 44.0% (6th BSC)
• Free Throw %: 388/570, 68.1% (5th BSC)
• Offensive 3-Point %: 155/507, 30.6% (9th BSC)
• Defensive 3-Point %: 198/556, 35.6% (6th BSC)
• Rebounds: 993, 35.5 pg (2nd BSC, 149th D-1)
• Rebounds Allowed: 969, 34.6 pg (6th BSC)
• Rebound Margin: +0.9 (5th BSC)
• Assists: 344, 12.3 pg (5th BSC, 224th D-1)
• Blocks: 96, 3.4 pg (4th BSC)
• Steals: 172, 6.1 pg (T-4th BSC)
• Turnovers: 413, 14.8 pg (9th BSC)
• Turnovers Forced: 332, 11.9 pg (T-8th BSC)
• Turnover Margin: -2.89 (9th BSC)
Individual Stats (averages less than 0.5 xpg are not listed, stats taken from espn.com)
- • Toles-Bey: 28 gp, 36.0 mpg, 12.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.5 spg, 3.6 tpg, 34.0-FG%, 79.6-FT%, 33.3-3%
• Bjegovic: 28 gp, 27.2 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.5 spg, 2.1 tpg, 40.9-FG%, 65.8-FT%, 36.2-3%
• Jackson: 26 gp, 26.8 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.2 tpg, 48.9-FG%, 67.9-FT%, 13.6-3%
• Dickson: 28 gp, 24.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 1.9 tpg, 42.2-FG%, 76.3-FT%, 12.8-3%
• Carbajal: 28 gp, 23.6 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.5 tpg, 40.9-FG%, 59.6-FT%, 30.9-3%
• Hoffman: 27 gp, 20.4 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.9 tpg, 37.9-FG%, 76.5-FT%, 30.6-3%
• N’Diaye: 19 gp, 20.7 mpg, 6.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 0.5 spg, 1.1 bpg, 0.6 tpg, 44.7-FG%, 52.8-FT%, 66.7-3%
• McCarver: 23 gp, 8.0 mpg, 1.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.7 tpg, 72.0-FG%, 38.1-FT%
• Groom: 20 gp, 6.8 mpg, 0.9 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.7 tpg, 25.9-FG%, 27.3-FT%
• Rakocevic: 17 gp, 5.3 mpg, 1.9 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 46.2-FG%, 42.9-FT%
• Nelson: 16 gp, 22.1 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.7 tpg, 33.0-FG%, 72.7-FT%, 27.3-3%
• Proctor: 8 gp, 23.3 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.4 spg, 3.1 tpg, 34.9-FG%, 72.0-FT%, 28.6-3%
Offensively we are not seeing Katz’ make adjustments to exploit in-game advantages the Hornets may have. Very few plays are called to open up something inside (like a back door cut along the baseline or screens to mix up defensive assignments and create a mismatch) and the ball is just dumped inside to someone in the post for either a forced shot or a pass back to the perimeter. The team offense is not aggressive and the typical game plan has been a perimeter attack in which the Hornets have struggled. A guard that can drive to the hoop and create a scoring chance is needed, but without this Katz should have some plays that have the chance to give players some looks at a good shot by using screens, pick and rolls, give and go’s, or anything to make the opposing defense rotate and adjust to defend the play/shot. The Hornets have struggled to score under the current game plan and unless the perimeter shooting improves, these struggles will always persist under this scheme.
Defensively the Hornets have struggled to stop an opponent’s key player. I don’t know if that is due to the lack of athleticism on the roster or just poor preparation and scouting by the coaching staff; but time after time the defense has failed to lock in on a key player and force the ball out of their hands. The Hornets did have some success with a full court press but this was used infrequently. I would hope to see more traps, press, and double teams to try and force the ball out of the key players’ hands and force other opponent’s players to step up and beat the Hornets.
Players Leaving
- • Sultan Toles-Bey, PG: Was the leading Hornet scorer for his two seasons here. He was a streaky player in that he was either ice cold or red hot. He could hit a shot from anywhere on the floor when he was in the zone and it was a spectacle to see. It’s a shame Katz couldn’t find another guard to take some of the pressure off of TB, he will be missed and his time here is much appreciated.
• Duro Bjegovic, F: Was a solid player for his two seasons here. What he lacked in athleticism and agility he made up for in versatility and consistency. Duro had the ability to step back and drain a 3 as well as score in the paint from the post and grab some boards. He didn’t score a lot of points but definitely contributed. Another solid Katz recruit who consistently contributed.
• Antoine Proctor, G: Was dismissed from the team about a third of the way through the season. He was athletic and had a lot of energy. I have no idea what happened here.
• Zach Nelson, F: Was dismissed from the team about midway through BSC play. He was a big athletic body but had trouble scoring in the paint. I thought he had some potential.
- • John Dickson, G/F: Continued to improve his game and impress us Hornet fans. He will always be tough for opponents to defend and he has the talent and ability to completely take over a game. As good has he has been, there is still room for improvement. He needs to abandon the perimeter shooting mentality and focus more on his midrange and post/paint play. Heaving up 3’s does no one any good. I look forward to watching him play for 2 more seasons.
• Alpha N’Diaye, C: Missed a good amount of time with an injured ankle. His athleticism is amazing but he is pretty light to bang around in the paint and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is moved to the number 4 spot at forward. I’d like to see him work on his midrange jumper to add some versatility to his game so he can give opposing defenses some fits. He also needs to work on his FT shooting and minimize the goal tends. When healthy, he can be an amazing contributor with his shot blocking ability, rebounding, and athleticism.
• Jackson Carbajal, SG: Had an okay season for a true freshman but really didn’t improve as the season progressed. He has a long way to go and really needs to pick up his game and prove he belongs in the D-1 ranks. He needs to work on his ball handling as he dribbled in to trouble quite often. He also needs to dramatically increase his FT shooting and get it near 80%. There were plenty of games where many of his 3’s missed by the slimmest of margins. If he can refine his stroke and improve his ball handling, I think he can make his presence felt.
• Walter Jackson, G/F: He had some solid games and had good production in the latter half of conference play. If he can build off of that success and continue to improve his game, he could see more playing time which will hopefully result in bigger numbers.
• Heath Hoffman, G: Showed he can knock down the 3 but was a streaky shooter. He does shoots well from the charity stripe. His downside is that he is slow off the dribble and is easily exploited on the defensive end and is not too good when it comes to making a drive to the basket. At this stage of his career, I am not sure if that can be improved however he will still see plenty of playing time next season.
• Josh McCarver, C: He didn’t see a whole lot of playing time and I thought he would play a bigger role when Nelson was gone. From what I saw he was not impressive at all; terrible hands inside, struggled to score in the paint and didn’t play aggressively. Significant playing time would have done him wonders, now he is left with one year of eligibility to try and figure it out.
• Kendall Groom, PG: Will be a sophomore next season and spent most of the season on the bench. Frankly a redshirt this season would have better served him. With the lopsided losses and games where TB struggled and/or was overplayed, there is no reason Groom shouldn’t have seen more playing time. Groom will have to get his experience and in-game development next season.
• Pete Rakocevic, C: Will be a sophomore next season. I thought he would have seen more playing time when Nelson was kicked off the team but this didn’t happen either. Katz probably should have redshirted him this season instead of just giving him a few token playing minutes here and there.
• Konner Veteto, C: Transferred in from UCR and assuming he had a redshirt to use, will be a junior next season. He has size and D-1 experience and I hope he can step up and make his presence felt in the paint.
• Magd Owayed, F: Will be a redshirt freshman next season. He has size but I have no idea what to expect from him.
Starters:
- • PG – Kendall Groom, 6’-3”, 170 lbs, So
• SG – Jackson Carbajal, 6’-3”, 180 lbs, So
• SF – John Dickson, 6’-6”, 185 lbs, Jr
• PF – Alpha N’Diaye, 6’-8”, 210 lbs, Sr
• C – Konner Veteto, 6’-8”, 270 lbs, Jr
- • G/F – Walter Jackson, 6’-5”, 180 lbs, Sr
• G – Heath Hoffman, 6’-3”, 195 lbs, Sr
• C – Josh McCarver, 6’-9”, 230 lbs, Sr
• C – Pete Rakocevic, 6’-11”, 220 lbs, So
• F – Magd Owayed, 6’-7”, 195 lbs, Fr
On the recruiting side of things, this is the first time Katz has an experienced and athletic roster returning. He only has a limited number of roster spots/scholarships so hopefully he used this opportunity to focus on some good high school talent that will contribute sooner rather than later. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the handful of incoming players be about a 50-50 split between HS guys and JC guys. Katz has been good about increasing the amount of HS players on the roster and I hope this continues.
Potential Opponents
Coming off another season filled with struggles, Katz will need to schedule teams who finished in the middle or near the bottom of their conference. I thought this season’s schedule was pretty good in that it had a lot of winnable OOC games on them. My issue with this season’s schedule was that it had a lot of travel and there weren’t a lot of regional games and few home games. Here is my list of pipe dream programs to schedule, I kept it regional and hopefully a SoCal road trip is scheduled so Katz can develop an in with recruiting down here:
WAC:
- • SJSU (regional matchup, home & home possible)
• Fresno State (regional matchup)
• Idaho (could fill out the weekend road trip on the “lone wolf” BSC scheduling)
- • SDSU (selfish interests, possible money game)
• Boise State (see Idaho)
• UNLV (see SDSU)
• Utah (see Idaho, possible money game)
• Air Force (see Utah)
- • USD (they are terrible, selfish interests, home & home possible)
• LMU (home & home possible)
• Pepperdine (home & home possible)
• Portland (see Idaho)
- • LBSU (selfish interests)
• CP (regional matchup, we probably owe them a visit)
• Pacific (regional matchup, SH wants it, home & home possible)
• UC Irvine (home & home possible)
• UC Riverside (see UCI)
- • Anyone for $$$, preferably not a top tier P-12 team and one that could fit in with a regional road trip
- • CSU Bakersfield (regional matchup, home & home likely)
• North Dakota (probably owe us a home game)
• Utah Valley (see North Dakota)
• SEMO (due to Braketbuster they owe us a home game)
• Seattle (see Idaho, home & home possible)
• Denver (see Idaho, home & home possible)
• Southern Utah (see Idaho, home & home possible)
I expected this program to be around .500 for the season and show some significant progress in performance and production. The Hornets had a very manageable out of conference schedule that featured other struggling programs and I expected more wins. I also expected the Hornets to significantly exceed last season’s BSC win total and be in contention for a BSC Tournament berth especially since PSU was ineligible for post season play and the Hornets only needed to be better than two other BSC programs. The Hornets finished 1 win better in BSC play but had a deplorable OOC showing. With 5 returning players who were familiar with his schemes and coaching style, and the close games in the 2009-10 season in which Katz should have learned a lot from, there is no excuse for the lack of improvement this season.
Katz will be entering his 4th season as the head coach and imo it will be a make or break season for him. This upcoming season will really tell us what to expect for the remainder of his tenure here. What we do know is that Katz needs to change something in order to find success because what he has been doing the past 3 seasons hasn’t worked. Whether that is some changes on the coaching staff, changes in game preparation, or game style/plan changes; Katz will need to find a way to win and show that he is improving this program.
There is still hope and time for Katz to turn this program around. With a core group of players returning and the roster being such that Katz can focus on quality rather than quantity on the recruiting trail; there will be plenty of opportunity to find success.
As always feel free to add you input and comments.
Go Hornets!
