I can see both sides here - but the thing that keeps me from definitively siding one way or the other is the simple unknown.
I think you should start this conversation back up after we know, without a doubt, that Baldwin and Co. will be back to coach our guys next year. If he goes and takes half his staff with him - I say play down. If he stays - play the $$ game. If he goes and doesn't take staff with him (takes OC job somewhere) and a new coach keeps most, if not all of our staff - then I'm a forced "MAYBE" play $$ game.
The players are reslient, tough and the defense, after losing seniors will still be tough. The "new guys" to the O-Line next year - well, until we see it, we don't know what that's going to look like for the QB. He certainly needs the time our O-Line gave him. If there are seemingly no changes and we are again "blessed" with our linemen, then we're golden there too.
For the sake of argument - if "the" new coach is currently on our staff, does he keep the staff Baldwin doesn't take with him? Does he keep the entire staff if Baldwin takes none? If he brings in new staff - none of us can say how the players will respond to their new position coaches. Unknown.
I know in another thread someone brought up the mention of Baldwin perhaps jumping bigtime, and some think it's not even a remote possibility given the fact that most of this team will be back. IMO - if the guys win this - he'll go. On sportcenter a week ago, they did a report on the "trend" of universities, NFL - going with "younger" coaches. If his aspirations are to climb - he HAS to get out now if there's an opportunity. Put yourself in his shoes. There's no real KNOWN factor next year. You can't say because we have the team we have that we WILL WIN IT ALL again. sh*t happens.
For me - there's too many unknowns at this point to comment on schedule for 2011. Much as I want to, I'm trying to wait this one out. I do think he'll go given the chance. It's business. That much is KNOWN.