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2012-13 Men's Hoops Preview

SDHornet

Moderator
Staff member
2012-13 Men’s Hoops Preview

Head Coach Katz will be entering his fifth year as HC and he has this program poised to finally turn the corner in the Big Sky Conference. The Hornets are coming off of a 10-18 (5-11 BSC) season and return all of the leading scorers from a season ago. At a minimum the goal should be to reach the BSC Tournament. The twist to this season is the BSC added 2 additional members (UND & SUU) and only the top 7 out of 11 make the tournament. This means it’s that much harder for Katz to get the BSC Tournament monkey off of his back.

With a significant amount of play makers and experience returning, the key to this season will be winning the close games. Winning the close games has been something that has eluded this program the last few years and the mistakes and missed opportunities typically associated with close losses should be minimized with this returning group. Consistency has been another aspect this program has been lacking. The leadership and experience needs to shine through this season so the Hornets can play a full 40 minutes every time they step out onto the court. If the Hornets play to their potential, this program should be able to meet everyone’s expectations and finally make some noise in the BSC.

Roster
There will be plenty to look forward to heading into the season but the playing time will more than likely be dominated with the familiar faces from last season. Although the starting lineup is pretty much set, the players first off the bench is wide open. Katz landed a good looking recruiting class and it remains to be seen how this coaching staff balances out the redshirts and which players earn minutes coming off of the bench.

As far as who comes off the bench first, there are some depth issues at center and that appears to be the biggest concern heading into the season. Veteto has been prone to foul trouble and there is no telling how incoming recruit Ryan Okwudibonye will fill in as back up. Also depending who redshirts in the back court, there is no telling who might be the go to guy to fill in for Garrity or Carbajal (assuming Carbs is the starter at SG). My inkling is sophomore JC transfer Mikh McKinney is the first off the bench to give Garrity some rest with Estrada or Demps getting some reps as well. According to BSC hoops guru Jon at bigskybball.com (which he learned from the BSC preseason conference call), McKinney, Demps and Quigley will be the first ones off of the bench. I think this makes a lot of sense as the production from some of the returning back court players was lacking. This may also hint at a redshirt for Salley.

Starters
  • • PG – (#5) Dylan Garrity: SO, 6’-2”, 175 lbs. (2011/12 BSC Freshman of the Year, started 27 of the 28 games he played in last season)
    • SG – (#1) Jackson Carbajal: JR, 6’-3”, 190 lbs. (28 career starts and 46 career appearances)
    • SF – (#3) Joe Eberhard: SR, 6’-6”, 210 lbs. (Started 27 of the 28 games he played in last season)
    • PF – (#32) John Dickson: SR, 6’-6”, 200 lbs. (61 career starts and 86 career appearances)
    • C – (#41) Konner Veteto: RSR, 6’-8”, 290 lbs. (17 career starts and 78 career appearances)
Bench
  • • G – (#10) Mikh McKinney: T-RSO, 6’-1”, 165 lbs.
    • G – (#2) Cody Demps: FR, 6’-4”, 185 lbs.
    • F – (#4) Joey Quigley: T-JR, 6’-8”, 210 lbs.
    • C – (#15) Ryan Okwudibonye: T-JR, 6’-8”, 230 lbs.
    • G – (#0) Jordan Estrada: SR, 6’-1”, 190 lbs. (Started 8 of the 22 games he played in last season)
    • G - (#11) Julian Demalleville: SR, 6’-2”, 190 lbs. (Started 2 of the 28 games he played in last season.)
    • G – (#12) Kendell Groom: JR, 6’-3”, 175 lbs. (2 career starts and 39 career appearances)
Redshirt
  • • G – (#20) Dreon Barlett: FR, 6’-3”, 170 lbs.
    • F – (#22) Jordan Salley: T-JR, 6’-6”, 230 lbs.
    • F – (#34) Alex Tiffin: T-JR, 6’-9”, 235 lbs. (59 career appearances)
My redshirts are complete guesses but Tiffin definitely will be sitting out this season due to D-1 transfer rules. I would hope Salley will be redshirted if Katz is dead set on Quigley being the forward off of the bench. A redshirt would give Salley 2 years as a starter when he fills the void left by Dickson after this season. If he won't see significant playing time this season, a redshirt is probably better suited for him. As far as the Barlett redshirt goes, the Hornets have a crowded back court and I would think Katz will redshirt one of the incoming freshman guards to give one of them more time to grow and adjust to D-1 ball.

One thing is for certain; Katz’ recruit classes have come in waves and there isn’t much balance to the amount of graduates/departures from year to year. It would be nice to see if the coaches can spread out the graduations so they don’t have to go out and land a huge class every 2 years.

Stats
As mentioned earlier the Hornets return a lot of players and all of their top scorers. It would be nice to see Garrity score more points but so long as he is running the offense and creating scoring opportunities for others then he is doing fine. Carbajal will be looking to build off of a breakthrough season. He really needs to improve his free throw shooting as it has been absolutely horrid. Dickson will no doubt produce another consistent season. He has been a huge component of this program for the past 3 years. Eberhard has proven to be a solid contributor and has shown some range and Veteto has proved to be a solid post man on both ends of the court when he is not in foul trouble. There are a lot of players that can get it done and they will have to produce results this season.

Only points, assists, and rebounds per game stats listed. Players averaging less than 5.0 ppg not listed.
  • • Dickson: 12.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.1 apg, 43.1-FG%, 73.2-FT%, 26.5-3%
    • Eberhard: 11.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.5 apg, 50.2-FG%, 75.9-FT%, 45.8-3%
    • Carbajal: 11.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.7 apg, 47.5-FG%, 47.8-FT%, 35.8-3%
    • Veteto: 9.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.3 apg, 49.7-FG%, 59.5-FT%, 00.0-3%
    • Garrity: 8.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 6.9 apg, 40.4-FG%, 81.8-FT%, 33.3-3%
Complete individual stats listing:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/stats/_/id/16/sacramento-state-hornets

As much improved as the Hornets were last season, there is plenty of room for improvement.
Here is where the Hornets stood last season:
  • • Scoring Offense: 67.0 ppg (7th BSC, 194th D-1)
    • Scoring Defense: 69.1 ppg (3rd BSC)
    • Scoring Margin: -2.2 (6th BSC)
    • Offensive Field Goal %: 663/1470, 45.1% (5th BSC, 103rd D-1)
    • Defensive Field Goal %: 670/1492, 44.9% (4th BSC)
    • Free Throw %: 397/568, 69.9% (5th BSC)
    • Offensive 3-Point %: 152/448, 33.9% (6th BSC)
    • Defensive 3-Point %: 176/490, 35.9% (4th BSC)
    • Offensive Rebounds: 932, 33.3 rpg (6th BSC, 235th D-1)
    • Defensive Rebounds: 891, 31.8 rpg (3rd BSC)
    • Rebound Margin: +1.5 (4th BSC)
    • Assists: 386, 13.8 apg (3rd BSC, 90th D-1)
    • Blocks: 64, 2.3 bpg (6th BSC)
    • Steals: 130, 4.6 spg (9th BSC)
    • Turnovers: 383, 13.7 tpg (6th BSC)
    • Turnovers Forced: 333, 11.9 tpg (8th BSC)
    • Turnover Margin: -1.79 (7th BSC)
Scoring is still near the bottom of the BSC but the Hornets balanced it out by being near the top of the BSC in defensive scoring. The defensive side of the ball needs to be an emphasis this season. The Hornets did not force many turnovers and they ranked last in the BSC in steals. If the Hornets can get a slight increase in scoring but a much improved effort on the defensive end, the Hornets will win more games.

Schedule
This was touched on quite a bit when the schedule was released. Here is a link to the predictions that multiple posters provided as well as my optimistic prediction of a 16-13 (10-10 BSC) season. As always, the sports book…I mean Kadeezy’s predictions will probably be more in line with what actually happens:

http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1690

The Hornets have a lot of awkward traveling in the early season OOC games and that might take its toll. I think it is completely unacceptable that 2 D-2 opponents were scheduled but I guess Katz/Wanless couldn’t schedule a home and home to get another D-1 opponent into The Nest. We finally avoid being the “lone wolf” member in the conference schedule. That title gets to go to SUU and not being a “lone wolf” will make it such that the Hornets won’t be the sole focus of 2 BSC teams during a weekend of conference play.

Outlook/Expectations
There is finally a legitimate reason to have some optimism heading into a hoops season and now this deep Hornet squad needs to live up to the billing and reach new heights never seen under Katz’ tenure. With another season under their belt, the Hornets should be able to improve upon last season, specifically in the win column. There is a lot to look forward to and with the exhibition game tonight and the regular season tipoff just days away, Hornet hoops fans can ratchet up the excitement.

A few other outlets provide season outlooks as well:

BSC Coaches Poll: http://www.hornetsports.com/sports/mbball/release.asp?release_id=10717

Jon at bigskybball.com is the neighborhood guru: http://rushthecourt.net/2012/10/18/2012-13-rtc-conference-primers-big-sky-conference/

Yahoo! posted one a few weeks back: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=1773

Feel free to post any others I may have missed.

GO HORNETS!
 
Looks like I was dead wrong on the possible redshirts. Salley and Barlett both played in the exhibition, so I assume neither will be redshirted this season.
 
Don't be too hard on yourself. There's precedent for guys playing in the Exhibition game as a reward/teaser for continued hard work, only to be RS'ed for the year. Who knows...
 
SDHornet said:
Looks like I was dead wrong on the possible redshirts. Salley and Barlett both played in the exhibition, so I assume neither will be redshirted this season.
They can still redshirt since it was just an exhibition. I would be surprised if Bartlett didn't redshirt because there just won't be that much playing time because we already have a loaded backcourt, especially with the emergence of McKinney.
 
Great preview SD, just getting to this.

Kind of interesting that Katz seems to be starting McKinney/Quigley with Carbajal/Veteto off the bench... wonder if that is just Katz trying to mess with things and experiment (I think he had 17 different starting lineups last year), or if he is doing it to try to make sure there is some production coming from off the bench.
 

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