2012 Sac State Outlook
It’s that time of the year again. The kickoff to the 2012 season is four weeks away (Thursday, August 30th) and fall camp begins this Sunday, August 5th. It’s time for us Hornet fans to get excited about this season as there will be quite a few things to keep an eye on. The Hornets will be showcasing a new offense under recently hired Offensive Coordinator Paul Peterson and there will be a lot of opening starting spots up for grabs at every facet of the team. An old rival was permanently added to the schedule and the Hornets will once again work towards winning a Big Sky Championship as well as a highly coveted playoff berth.
If anyone wants to review what the team did last season, feel free to read up on last season’s recaps as I won’t be reposting many 2011 stats in this outlook:
2011 Overall Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1528
2011 Special Teams Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1534
2011 Offense Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1544
2011 Defense Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1556
Coach Sperbeck and the Hornets will be looking to make-up for a disappointing 2011 campaign that featured plenty of highlights and lowlights. Sperbeck will no doubt be feeling the pressure as Hornet fans will be clamoring to see some wins to wipe away the disparaging images resonating from last season. Sperbeck did make some changes in the offseason to address some of last season’s issues, but a lot of talent and leadership graduated from a season ago leaving a lot of question marks on the starting lineups.
All starters listed below are projections based off of player experience or just a flat out guess. The classes listed are for the upcoming season. There is an abbreviations legend at the end of this outlook for reference. The schedule prediction and opponent returning starters is based off of whatever materials I could find online. Some had to go back to last season’s starting lineups and I have no idea if those held up through the offseason. As always everything is up for discussion so feel free to point out any errors or provide your opinions. The smell of football season is in the air so it’s time to dust off the tailgating gear and get ready to support Hornet football.
Offense
As mentioned above an offensive coordinator was finally added to the staff so it will be interesting to see what kind of an impact this will have on offensive production. The Hornets had one of the worst offenses in the BSC from a season ago so it shouldn’t be too hard to show signs of life that should garner improvement. It will take some time for the players to gel in this new system and that coupled with a lot of new starters in key positions should be something to watch for in fall camp and throughout the season.
Quarterback
In my opinion the QB position is wide open. Mason Magleby (FBS transfer from Nevada) and Garrett Safron will be the favorites to fill the void. Safron saw significant time last season when Fleming went down with an injury but did not show much improvement over the course of his playing time. Whoever proves to be more consistent should get the nod; my guess is that Magleby will be named the starter heading into the first game.
Wide Receivers
The Hornets lost playmakers Chase Deadder and Brandyn Reed to graduation, but the cupboard is far from bare. There is a lot of size and talent returning and there should be plenty of opportunities for players to step up and provide an impact with the new spread no-huddle system OC Peterson will be implementing. There are some notable returners with experience (DeAndre Carter and Morris Norrise) but who actually gets the starting nod is anyone’s guess.
Starters:
Tight Ends
With the new offense, I am not sure what role the TE will serve in this system. It was posted here on Sac Buzz (by OG67 ) that the TE will be flexed and not lined up next to the tackle in most cases. The height of TJ Knowles should create some matchup problems for opposing defenses if he can stay healthy. This TE role will be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Starters:
Running Backs
The ever familiar face of Bryan Hilliard and his power running game is gone and so is the scrappy warrior Jake Croxdale. Something to look for will be how the RB will be used in Peterson’s system. The speedy and shifty Sam McGowan is back and will play alongside Fresno State transfer AJ Ellis. With a more spread out and fast tempo offense, the smaller speedy RB’s should thrive in the open space that will be available to them in the new offense.
Starters:
Offensive Line
The OL will need to be the anchor for the offense this season. There is a lot of size and experience returning and even with the departure of the seasoned bookend Nate Doverspike and center Dustin Pfaff, this unit should be solid. With another new system in place, the offense will depend on the OL to serve as the foundation for the retooling process. Here is my best guess at who fills the opening starting spots on the OL, the right side of the line returns and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the huge redshirt freshmen gets the nod on the left side:
Starters:
Defense
The defense was the backbone of this team last season and it will have to step up and deliver again this season. The defense has quite a bit of reloading to do as it enters the 3rd season under Coach Parker’s system. As with the offense, there will plenty to look for here as there will be a lot of starting sports up for grabs in fall camp, but it’s safe to say we can once again expect to see an aggressive and sure tackling defensive unit.
Defensive Line
The DL has a massive void to fill. In addition to the loss of the all-time Hornet sack leader Zach Nash, two other starting linemen graduated. The Hornets struggled to stop opposing rushing attacks last season so depth on the DL, especially the interior spots will be something to watch for. The coaches moved some OL to the other side of the ball in hopes of shoring up this issue. The Hornets have some young but unproven linemen on the roster that will be led by returning NT Matt Lawrence. Here is my guess at who gets the starting DL spots:
Starters:
Linebackers
The Hornets return both starting LB’s from last season, including Preseason All-Big Sky Conference defensive team selection Todd Davis. Between Davis and Jeff Badger and barring injury, the LB position should be solid all season long.
Starters:
Defensive Backs
The secondary also has some holes to fill but it sounds like an infusion of FBS transfers will give this secondary the potential to be one of the best in the BSC. The ever present FS Joe Larche was lost to graduation as well as CB Kyle Monson and ultimately there are three vacant starting spots in the secondary. The coaches went out and recruited some FBS transfers to play alongside returners Osagie Odiase (who should have a spectacular season if he stays healthy) and sure tackler and hard hitting Ryan McMahon. We will have to wait and see how this unit comes together through fall camp and into the season.
Starters:
Special Teams
The special teams have plenty of question marks heading into fall camp. The kicking situation will need to get sorted out as that will be under the microscope this season. On the kick return side, the returning teams need to be able to provide a bigger spark this season. With NCAA rule changes going into effect this season (see below), it will be even more difficult to gain an advantage there. We will no doubt continue to see an aggressive stance on punt blocking and I am putting the line for blocked punts this season at 2.5 (any takers?).
Kickers
The kicking was a complete disaster last season so it won’t be hard improving here. Sperbeck has brought in a slew of kickers over the offseason. Bottom line is whoever goes out and wins the job will be named the go to guy; this goes for both the punter and kicker. My guess is Ed Ruhnke wins the place kicking duties and Smith Heath gets it together and retains the punting duties. The botched extra points, blown chip shot field goals and shanked punts have got to stop.
Starters:
Long Snapper
Not much needs to be said here as Jimmy Bobak has held down these duties for the last two years now. What remains to be seen is who will be groomed to take over this role for 2013.
Starter:
Punt/Kick Coverage
With the rule changes I think we will see Coach DePrato pull a few tricks from his sleeve. I think we will see some different looks on kickoffs with possibly more squib kicks or shorter kickoffs with more hang time to try and pin opponents inside the 25. The kickoff coverage teams had some lapses from time to time last season but there are plenty of young players coming off of redshirt years who will be chomping at the bit to make an impact on special teams.
Key Players:
Punt/Kick Return
The return game provided a limited impact last season and it won’t get any easier with the rule changes. John Hendershott led the team in returns last season but both Sam McCowan and DeAndre Carter have some experience returning kickoffs and should be the favorites to fill this role heading into fall camp. With the graduation of Kyle Monson, the punt returning duties are up for grabs. DeAndre Carter was listed behind Monson on last season’s depth chart so I think he will be the favorite to fill in that role as well.
Returners
Schedule/Predictions
There were a lot of changes within the Big Sky Conference this offseason and the complete makeup of the conference is totally different. With the additions of SUU, UND, CP, and the farm extension; the BSC will no longer play a true round robin format to determine a clear cut conference champ. This makes hammering out conference standing predictions damn near impossible. Given the amount of voids left from graduation, I think the Hornets will finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. Starting the season with 2 money games won’t help things and it is more than likely that the Hornets will be digging themselves out of a 2 game hole early in the season.
Week 1 - 8/30 - @ New Mexico State - Loss
NMSU (4-9, 2-5 WAC) lost a lot on the both sides of the ball and are vulnerable in this one; but they still have the depth advantage due to the additional scholarships. Most of their offensive skilled players graduated (or declared for the draft) so they will be in a similar position as the Hornets. NMSU lost a lot of starters on both sides of the trenches and most of their secondary graduated but they will return a few players who have experience from last season. I would like our chances a lot better if we had a proven QB returning, but the fact is this Hornet team will be trying to feel itself out for the first couple of weeks. A win is possible here and I’d love to be wrong on this pick, but I still think NMSU will have the edge in this one.
Week 2 - 9/8 - @ Colorado - Loss
Colorado (3-10, 2-7 Pac12) will look to knock off the Hornets as they were able to sneak up on a Pac12 opponent last season. I have a hard time seeing this seasons’ Pac12 opponent sleeping when the Hornets buzz into Boulder. CU graduated a lot of their skilled offensive players and has some voids to fill on defense as well. No way the Buffs want to be the laughingstock OSU became after they had their asses handed to them by the Hornets last season so I expect CU to come out tough. Colorado has had its struggles but I think they roll the Hornets in this one.
Week 3 - 9/15 – vs. Northern Colorado (OOC game) – Win
The Hornets have yet to lose to UNC (0-11, 0-8 BSC) and I don’t expect that to happen this season. However the winless Bears from a season ago have nowhere to go but up and they return virtually everyone from an offense (including previously ineligible stud WR Jace Davis) that was learning a new system under a new coaching staff. The Bears defense will have plenty of voids to fill, especially up front. The Hornets cannot sleep on UNC this season.
Week 4 - 9/22 – vs. North Dakota – Win
UND (8-3, 3-1 GWC) had a breakthrough season last year, but they will have their work cut out for them this year as they make their transition into the BSC. I don’t know much about UND but their team stats from last season indicate that they have a well balanced offense. Defensively they defended the run well but struggled against the pass. This will be an issue for them as the Hornets will be looking to air it out early and often under Peterson’s offense. The Hornets will have the home field advantage in this one which I think will be a significant issue considering the distance separating these two universities.
Week 5 - 9/29 - @ Idaho State – Win
ISU (2-9, 1-7 BSC) will be in its second season under Coach Kramer. The Bengals return everyone on offense; however they touted one of the worst OL’s in FCS. On the defensive side of things, the Bengals lost some key players at LB and will have a lot of holes to plug. I expect ISU to continue to improve its program but the Hornets should win this game.
Week 6 - 10/6 - @ Southern Utah – Loss
SUU (6-5, 1-3 GWC) boasts the best QB in the BSC in Brad Sorensen and he should lead the T-Birds to a home victory over the Hornets. Even with the graduation of some key WR’s and RB’s, SUU returns most of its huge OL which should be plenty for Sorensen to work with. With Peterson switching sidelines in this game, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact that will have on both teams. However the Hornets just do not perform well in the state of Utah and I don’t expect anything to change this time around.
Week 7 - 10/13 – vs. Weber State – Win
WSU (5-6, 5-3 BSC) should have a solid team, but I am going with the homer pick in this one. WSU underwent some turmoil this offseason when its newly hired HC John L Smith bailed on his alma mater to fill in for the disgraced Coach Petrino at Arkansas. This game is later in the season and some of the early season kinks should be worked out for both teams. WSU had the best OL in the BSC last season but lost a few players to graduation and a few others no longer show up on the roster. Defensively WSU is pretty balanced and returns their entire secondary. If WSU can fill their voids in the front 7, they should do well this season.
Week 8 - 10/20 - @ Eastern Washington – Loss
EWU (6-5, 5-3 BSC) will be looking to rebound from an utter disappointing season last year. EWU returns a lot but will be fully dependent on SMU QB transfer Kyle Padron. He will have plenty of weapons to work with as EWU is loaded with talent at WR and RB. Defensively the Eagles will have to replace the DL but return pretty much everything else. EWU has proven to do a good job at replacing key players over the past few years and I think they will be fine if they can get solid play from their QB. The Hornets have played EWU tough the past few times but I think they get edged out once again.
Week 9 - 10/27 – vs. Cal Poly – Win
With CP (6-5, 3-1 GWC) back on the schedule again, an old rivalry is renewed. This will be the highest attended home game for the season so the atmosphere should be enjoyable. The Mustangs have been a well balanced team in recent years and they will look to build off of that as they join the BSC. Unfortunately for CP they lost a ton of players on both sides of the ball to graduation. Their entire backfield graduated so the Mustangs will have to reload their triple option attack. Defensively the Mustangs lose a lot on the DL and in the secondary but their saving grace will be a more than manageable BSC schedule. With this game being in the later half of the season, it’s too hard to say how this game will be played, however I am hoping that the Hornets will have things in order and can take advantage of an inexperienced CP secondary.
Week 10 - 11/3 – vs. Montana State – Loss
MSU (10-3, 7-1 BSC) is coming off of a deep run in the playoffs and returns a lot of key players from a season ago. The Bobcat defense should be stout and the offense will need to find an OL to ensure that QB DeNarius McGhee can lead his team to success this season. The Hornets have been in some tough matchups with MSU in recent years but MSU will be stacked and looking to make another deep run in the post season. I think MSU will be too much for the Hornets this season.
Week 11 - 11/10 – Bye
Week 12 - 11/17 - @ the farm extension – Win
The farm extension (4-7, 1-3 GWC) is coming off of a bad season and Coach Biggs will be wrapping up his coaching career in this game. They did have a young team a season ago and they will be looking to improve this season, but they face a brutal schedule as they enter the BSC. Aside from regular cellar dweller ISU, they will be facing all middle of the road or better BSC teams which won’t bode well for an offense that struggled to find consistency and points last season (sound familiar?). The Hornets will be fully rested coming into this game and will be looking to reclaim Causeway Classic glory. I’ve got this game as a win.
Conclusion
So after all that, I have the Hornets pegged at an optimistic 6-5 (5-3 BSC) record. This can easily vary +/- 2 games in either direction depending on how things come together and if the Hornets can finally find a season where key players can stay healthy (knock on wood). If the offense can get up and running in fall camp, I think there is a legitimate chance the Hornets can knock off another FBS program. Even with the reloading that needs to occur in the Hornets starting lineup; there are a couple of opponents on the schedule that should and need to be wins regardless. The schedule is well balanced between road and home locations, and Sperbeck has proven that this Hornet team can beat anyone when everything is in gear. If this team keeps its focus and shows up to play every week; the Hornets should have no problem putting together a respectable 2012 season.
Go Hornets!!!
Abbreviations:
Rule Changes
I’ve reviewed the rule changes and here is what I was able to gather:
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect...roves+rules+changes+in+football,+other+sports
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect...ERES&CACHEID=ae50a0004b568515984ebd98b2d2e5a1
It’s that time of the year again. The kickoff to the 2012 season is four weeks away (Thursday, August 30th) and fall camp begins this Sunday, August 5th. It’s time for us Hornet fans to get excited about this season as there will be quite a few things to keep an eye on. The Hornets will be showcasing a new offense under recently hired Offensive Coordinator Paul Peterson and there will be a lot of opening starting spots up for grabs at every facet of the team. An old rival was permanently added to the schedule and the Hornets will once again work towards winning a Big Sky Championship as well as a highly coveted playoff berth.
If anyone wants to review what the team did last season, feel free to read up on last season’s recaps as I won’t be reposting many 2011 stats in this outlook:
2011 Overall Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1528
2011 Special Teams Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1534
2011 Offense Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1544
2011 Defense Recap: http://hornets.bigskyfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1556
Coach Sperbeck and the Hornets will be looking to make-up for a disappointing 2011 campaign that featured plenty of highlights and lowlights. Sperbeck will no doubt be feeling the pressure as Hornet fans will be clamoring to see some wins to wipe away the disparaging images resonating from last season. Sperbeck did make some changes in the offseason to address some of last season’s issues, but a lot of talent and leadership graduated from a season ago leaving a lot of question marks on the starting lineups.
All starters listed below are projections based off of player experience or just a flat out guess. The classes listed are for the upcoming season. There is an abbreviations legend at the end of this outlook for reference. The schedule prediction and opponent returning starters is based off of whatever materials I could find online. Some had to go back to last season’s starting lineups and I have no idea if those held up through the offseason. As always everything is up for discussion so feel free to point out any errors or provide your opinions. The smell of football season is in the air so it’s time to dust off the tailgating gear and get ready to support Hornet football.
Offense
As mentioned above an offensive coordinator was finally added to the staff so it will be interesting to see what kind of an impact this will have on offensive production. The Hornets had one of the worst offenses in the BSC from a season ago so it shouldn’t be too hard to show signs of life that should garner improvement. It will take some time for the players to gel in this new system and that coupled with a lot of new starters in key positions should be something to watch for in fall camp and throughout the season.
Quarterback
In my opinion the QB position is wide open. Mason Magleby (FBS transfer from Nevada) and Garrett Safron will be the favorites to fill the void. Safron saw significant time last season when Fleming went down with an injury but did not show much improvement over the course of his playing time. Whoever proves to be more consistent should get the nod; my guess is that Magleby will be named the starter heading into the first game.
- 1. Mason Magleby,T-RJR (10/11 for 109 yards and 4 TD’s, 10 carries for 36 yards)
2. Garrett Safron, RSO (3 starts and played in 5 games last season)
3. Colin Burnett, RFR
4. Nolan Sorensen, FR (probable redshirt)
Wide Receivers
The Hornets lost playmakers Chase Deadder and Brandyn Reed to graduation, but the cupboard is far from bare. There is a lot of size and talent returning and there should be plenty of opportunities for players to step up and provide an impact with the new spread no-huddle system OC Peterson will be implementing. There are some notable returners with experience (DeAndre Carter and Morris Norrise) but who actually gets the starting nod is anyone’s guess.
Starters:
- • Morris Norrise, RJR (13 career starts, leading receiver last season)
• DeAndre Carter, SO (5 starts and played in 8 games last season)
• Justin Cox, RFR
- • Nnamdi Agnde, Blake Robertson, Shane Harrison, Devin Hardy, all RFR
• Ashton Collins, RSO
• Austin Dotson,T-JR (possible redshirt)
• Kyle Roberts, Tyler Amick, Kyi Thomas, all FR (probable redshirts)
Tight Ends
With the new offense, I am not sure what role the TE will serve in this system. It was posted here on Sac Buzz (by OG67 ) that the TE will be flexed and not lined up next to the tackle in most cases. The height of TJ Knowles should create some matchup problems for opposing defenses if he can stay healthy. This TE role will be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Starters:
- • TJ Knowles, RSR (played in 5 games last season)
• Chris Broadnax, RSO (2 starts and played in 9 games last season)
- • DJ Maciel, RJR (7 starts and played in 10 games last season , probable short yardage TE)
• Marcus Mosi, RFR (probable short yardage TE)
• Cole Hikutini, FR (probable redshirt)
Running Backs
The ever familiar face of Bryan Hilliard and his power running game is gone and so is the scrappy warrior Jake Croxdale. Something to look for will be how the RB will be used in Peterson’s system. The speedy and shifty Sam McGowan is back and will play alongside Fresno State transfer AJ Ellis. With a more spread out and fast tempo offense, the smaller speedy RB’s should thrive in the open space that will be available to them in the new offense.
Starters:
- • Sam McCowan, SR (2 starts last season, played in 33 straight games)
• AJ Ellis, T-RSR (injury plagued 2010 season, saw minimal playing time last season)
- • Gary Ferman, RFR (probable short yardage RB)
• Ezekiel Graham, Clark Partridge, T-JR (possible redshirts)
• De’jon Coleman, Demetrius Warren, FR (probable redshirts)
Offensive Line
The OL will need to be the anchor for the offense this season. There is a lot of size and experience returning and even with the departure of the seasoned bookend Nate Doverspike and center Dustin Pfaff, this unit should be solid. With another new system in place, the offense will depend on the OL to serve as the foundation for the retooling process. Here is my best guess at who fills the opening starting spots on the OL, the right side of the line returns and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the huge redshirt freshmen gets the nod on the left side:
Starters:
- • LT: Vince Weaver, RSR (4 career starts and 23 career appearances)
• LG: Dan Stornaiuolo, RFR
• C: Clay DePauw, RSR (22 straight starts at LG entering this season)
• RG: Tyler Worthley, RJR (22 straight starts at RG entering this season)
• RT: Derek Stickney, RSO (8 straight starts at RT entering this season)
- • Aaron Gasper, RSR (1 career start and 7 career appearances)
• Aleksandar Milanovic, Lars Hanson, Spencer Klew, all RFR
• Dylan Woodfill, RSO
• RJ Melgar, T-JR (possible redshirt)
• Jessie Brown, T-SO (probable redshirt)
• Matt Sawickis, T-FR (probable redshirt)
• Mark Knapp, Sapule Ta’amilo, Casey Dakin, all FR (probable redshirts)
Defense
The defense was the backbone of this team last season and it will have to step up and deliver again this season. The defense has quite a bit of reloading to do as it enters the 3rd season under Coach Parker’s system. As with the offense, there will plenty to look for here as there will be a lot of starting sports up for grabs in fall camp, but it’s safe to say we can once again expect to see an aggressive and sure tackling defensive unit.
Defensive Line
The DL has a massive void to fill. In addition to the loss of the all-time Hornet sack leader Zach Nash, two other starting linemen graduated. The Hornets struggled to stop opposing rushing attacks last season so depth on the DL, especially the interior spots will be something to watch for. The coaches moved some OL to the other side of the ball in hopes of shoring up this issue. The Hornets have some young but unproven linemen on the roster that will be led by returning NT Matt Lawrence. Here is my guess at who gets the starting DL spots:
Starters:
- • DE: Ben Cowger, RSO (played in 10 games last season)
• NT: Matt Lawrence, RSR (19 straight starts at DT & NT entering this season)
• DT: Nathan Castro, SO (played in 9 games last season)
• DE: Trent Eskew, JR (20 career appearances)
- • John Bloomfield, RSR (played in 11 games at DE last season)
• Avery White, RSR (3 career starts, 17 career appearances, DE)
• Devonte Martin, RSO (played 10 games at OL last season, DT)
• Trevor Kelley, RFR (likely DT)
• Josh Latham, Nicholas Mazza, all RFR (likely DE)
• Patrick Scroggins, FR (possible redshirt, likely DT)
• Noah Johnson, Nick Kristofors, Mark Meyer, all FR (probable redshirts, likely DE)
• Edmund Faimalo, Nehemiah Mitchell, all FR (probable redshirts, likely DT)
Linebackers
The Hornets return both starting LB’s from last season, including Preseason All-Big Sky Conference defensive team selection Todd Davis. Between Davis and Jeff Badger and barring injury, the LB position should be solid all season long.
Starters:
- • MLB: Jeff Badger, SR (22 straight starts entering the season)
• WLB: Todd Davis, JR (11 straight starts entering the season, leading tackler last season)
- • Cody Allen, RJR (1 career start, 21 career appearances)
• Henry Fernandez, JR (20 career appearances)
• Keenan Coogler, RSO
• Alejandro Valencia, T-RSR
• Josh Lauese, Bryce Henderson, all FR (probable redshirts)
Defensive Backs
The secondary also has some holes to fill but it sounds like an infusion of FBS transfers will give this secondary the potential to be one of the best in the BSC. The ever present FS Joe Larche was lost to graduation as well as CB Kyle Monson and ultimately there are three vacant starting spots in the secondary. The coaches went out and recruited some FBS transfers to play alongside returners Osagie Odiase (who should have a spectacular season if he stays healthy) and sure tackler and hard hitting Ryan McMahon. We will have to wait and see how this unit comes together through fall camp and into the season.
Starters:
- • CB: Osagie Odiase, RJR (7 starts last season, 15 career starts)
• NB: Markell Williams, RJR (22 career appearances)
• SS: Ryan McMahon, RSR (11 starts at SS last season, 2nd leading tackler last season)
• FS: Dijon Washington, T-RJR (14 career appearances at Nebraska)
• CB: Christopher Lopes, T-RJR (8 career appearances at UConn)
- • Corey Vanderbeek, RJR (22 career appearances primarily on special teams)
• Randey Peterson, JR (18 career appearances)
• Dexter Alcala, RSO (7 appearances last season primarily on special teams)
• Corey Sims, RSO (4 appearances last season primarily on special teams)
• Manasa Kikau, SR (4 appearances last season)
• Robert Beale, RJR (2 appearances last season)
• Eddie Gillies, GSO
• Nicholas Payne, Jacoby Carter, Joshua Armstrong, all RFR
• Brendan Royal, Anthony Payne, Jacob Bowman , Phillip Anspach, all FR (probable redshirts)
Special Teams
The special teams have plenty of question marks heading into fall camp. The kicking situation will need to get sorted out as that will be under the microscope this season. On the kick return side, the returning teams need to be able to provide a bigger spark this season. With NCAA rule changes going into effect this season (see below), it will be even more difficult to gain an advantage there. We will no doubt continue to see an aggressive stance on punt blocking and I am putting the line for blocked punts this season at 2.5 (any takers?).
Kickers
The kicking was a complete disaster last season so it won’t be hard improving here. Sperbeck has brought in a slew of kickers over the offseason. Bottom line is whoever goes out and wins the job will be named the go to guy; this goes for both the punter and kicker. My guess is Ed Ruhnke wins the place kicking duties and Smith Heath gets it together and retains the punting duties. The botched extra points, blown chip shot field goals and shanked punts have got to stop.
Starters:
- • K: Ed Ruhnke, T-SO
• P: Smith Heath, SO (3 appearances last season)
- • K: Edgar Castaneda, T-SO
• P: Justin Weldon, T-JR
Long Snapper
Not much needs to be said here as Jimmy Bobak has held down these duties for the last two years now. What remains to be seen is who will be groomed to take over this role for 2013.
Starter:
- • Jimmy Bobak, RSR (22 straight games at LS)
- • Josh Latham, RFR
Punt/Kick Coverage
With the rule changes I think we will see Coach DePrato pull a few tricks from his sleeve. I think we will see some different looks on kickoffs with possibly more squib kicks or shorter kickoffs with more hang time to try and pin opponents inside the 25. The kickoff coverage teams had some lapses from time to time last season but there are plenty of young players coming off of redshirt years who will be chomping at the bit to make an impact on special teams.
Key Players:
- • Corey Vanderbeek, RJR (punt block specialist)
• Markell Williams, RJR (will be fighting for a starting DB role, might see reduced time on ST)
• Randey Peterson, JR (18 career appearances)
• Dexter Alcala, RSO (7 appearances last season primarily on special teams)
Punt/Kick Return
The return game provided a limited impact last season and it won’t get any easier with the rule changes. John Hendershott led the team in returns last season but both Sam McCowan and DeAndre Carter have some experience returning kickoffs and should be the favorites to fill this role heading into fall camp. With the graduation of Kyle Monson, the punt returning duties are up for grabs. DeAndre Carter was listed behind Monson on last season’s depth chart so I think he will be the favorite to fill in that role as well.
Returners
- • PR/KR1: DeAndre Carter, SO (8 kick returns last season)
• KR2: Sam McCowan, SR (6 kick returns last season)
Schedule/Predictions
There were a lot of changes within the Big Sky Conference this offseason and the complete makeup of the conference is totally different. With the additions of SUU, UND, CP, and the farm extension; the BSC will no longer play a true round robin format to determine a clear cut conference champ. This makes hammering out conference standing predictions damn near impossible. Given the amount of voids left from graduation, I think the Hornets will finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. Starting the season with 2 money games won’t help things and it is more than likely that the Hornets will be digging themselves out of a 2 game hole early in the season.
Week 1 - 8/30 - @ New Mexico State - Loss
NMSU (4-9, 2-5 WAC) lost a lot on the both sides of the ball and are vulnerable in this one; but they still have the depth advantage due to the additional scholarships. Most of their offensive skilled players graduated (or declared for the draft) so they will be in a similar position as the Hornets. NMSU lost a lot of starters on both sides of the trenches and most of their secondary graduated but they will return a few players who have experience from last season. I would like our chances a lot better if we had a proven QB returning, but the fact is this Hornet team will be trying to feel itself out for the first couple of weeks. A win is possible here and I’d love to be wrong on this pick, but I still think NMSU will have the edge in this one.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 4, (1 WR, 1 TE, and 2 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 3, (1 DT and 2 LB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 3, (2 K’s and 1 P)
Week 2 - 9/8 - @ Colorado - Loss
Colorado (3-10, 2-7 Pac12) will look to knock off the Hornets as they were able to sneak up on a Pac12 opponent last season. I have a hard time seeing this seasons’ Pac12 opponent sleeping when the Hornets buzz into Boulder. CU graduated a lot of their skilled offensive players and has some voids to fill on defense as well. No way the Buffs want to be the laughingstock OSU became after they had their asses handed to them by the Hornets last season so I expect CU to come out tough. Colorado has had its struggles but I think they roll the Hornets in this one.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 4, (1 WR and 3 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 DE, 1 LB, and 3 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 4, (2 K’s and 2 P’s)
Week 3 - 9/15 – vs. Northern Colorado (OOC game) – Win
The Hornets have yet to lose to UNC (0-11, 0-8 BSC) and I don’t expect that to happen this season. However the winless Bears from a season ago have nowhere to go but up and they return virtually everyone from an offense (including previously ineligible stud WR Jace Davis) that was learning a new system under a new coaching staff. The Bears defense will have plenty of voids to fill, especially up front. The Hornets cannot sleep on UNC this season.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 QB, 3 WR’s, 1 TE, 1 RB, and 2 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 DL, 2 LB’s, and 2 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (2 K’s)
Week 4 - 9/22 – vs. North Dakota – Win
UND (8-3, 3-1 GWC) had a breakthrough season last year, but they will have their work cut out for them this year as they make their transition into the BSC. I don’t know much about UND but their team stats from last season indicate that they have a well balanced offense. Defensively they defended the run well but struggled against the pass. This will be an issue for them as the Hornets will be looking to air it out early and often under Peterson’s offense. The Hornets will have the home field advantage in this one which I think will be a significant issue considering the distance separating these two universities.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 9, (1 QB, 2 WR’s, 1 TE, 1 RB, and 4 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (3 DL, 1 LB, and 1 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K and 1 P)
Week 5 - 9/29 - @ Idaho State – Win
ISU (2-9, 1-7 BSC) will be in its second season under Coach Kramer. The Bengals return everyone on offense; however they touted one of the worst OL’s in FCS. On the defensive side of things, the Bengals lost some key players at LB and will have a lot of holes to plug. I expect ISU to continue to improve its program but the Hornets should win this game.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 9, (1 QB, 2 WR’s, 1 TE, and 5 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 4, (2 DL and 2 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 1, (1 K)
Week 6 - 10/6 - @ Southern Utah – Loss
SUU (6-5, 1-3 GWC) boasts the best QB in the BSC in Brad Sorensen and he should lead the T-Birds to a home victory over the Hornets. Even with the graduation of some key WR’s and RB’s, SUU returns most of its huge OL which should be plenty for Sorensen to work with. With Peterson switching sidelines in this game, it will be interesting to see how much of an impact that will have on both teams. However the Hornets just do not perform well in the state of Utah and I don’t expect anything to change this time around.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 QB, 2 WR’s, and 3 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (2 DL, 1 LB, and 2 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 3, (1 K and 2 P’s)
Week 7 - 10/13 – vs. Weber State – Win
WSU (5-6, 5-3 BSC) should have a solid team, but I am going with the homer pick in this one. WSU underwent some turmoil this offseason when its newly hired HC John L Smith bailed on his alma mater to fill in for the disgraced Coach Petrino at Arkansas. This game is later in the season and some of the early season kinks should be worked out for both teams. WSU had the best OL in the BSC last season but lost a few players to graduation and a few others no longer show up on the roster. Defensively WSU is pretty balanced and returns their entire secondary. If WSU can fill their voids in the front 7, they should do well this season.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 7, (1 QB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, 1 FB, and 2 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 7, (2 DL, 1 LB, and 4 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 1, (1 K)
Week 8 - 10/20 - @ Eastern Washington – Loss
EWU (6-5, 5-3 BSC) will be looking to rebound from an utter disappointing season last year. EWU returns a lot but will be fully dependent on SMU QB transfer Kyle Padron. He will have plenty of weapons to work with as EWU is loaded with talent at WR and RB. Defensively the Eagles will have to replace the DL but return pretty much everything else. EWU has proven to do a good job at replacing key players over the past few years and I think they will be fine if they can get solid play from their QB. The Hornets have played EWU tough the past few times but I think they get edged out once again.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 7, (1 DE, 3 LB’s, and 3 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 1, (1 P)
Week 9 - 10/27 – vs. Cal Poly – Win
With CP (6-5, 3-1 GWC) back on the schedule again, an old rivalry is renewed. This will be the highest attended home game for the season so the atmosphere should be enjoyable. The Mustangs have been a well balanced team in recent years and they will look to build off of that as they join the BSC. Unfortunately for CP they lost a ton of players on both sides of the ball to graduation. Their entire backfield graduated so the Mustangs will have to reload their triple option attack. Defensively the Mustangs lose a lot on the DL and in the secondary but their saving grace will be a more than manageable BSC schedule. With this game being in the later half of the season, it’s too hard to say how this game will be played, however I am hoping that the Hornets will have things in order and can take advantage of an inexperienced CP secondary.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 QB, 1 WR, and 3 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 4, (1 DT, 2 LB’s, and 1 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1K and 1 P)
Week 10 - 11/3 – vs. Montana State – Loss
MSU (10-3, 7-1 BSC) is coming off of a deep run in the playoffs and returns a lot of key players from a season ago. The Bobcat defense should be stout and the offense will need to find an OL to ensure that QB DeNarius McGhee can lead his team to success this season. The Hornets have been in some tough matchups with MSU in recent years but MSU will be stacked and looking to make another deep run in the post season. I think MSU will be too much for the Hornets this season.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 QB, 2 WR’s, 1 RB, 1 TE, and 1 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (2 DL, 2 LB’s, and 4 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 1, (1 P)
Week 11 - 11/10 – Bye
Week 12 - 11/17 - @ the farm extension – Win
The farm extension (4-7, 1-3 GWC) is coming off of a bad season and Coach Biggs will be wrapping up his coaching career in this game. They did have a young team a season ago and they will be looking to improve this season, but they face a brutal schedule as they enter the BSC. Aside from regular cellar dweller ISU, they will be facing all middle of the road or better BSC teams which won’t bode well for an offense that struggled to find consistency and points last season (sound familiar?). The Hornets will be fully rested coming into this game and will be looking to reclaim Causeway Classic glory. I’ve got this game as a win.
- • Offensive Starters Returning: 9, (1 QB, 3 WR’s, 1 RB, and 4 OL)
• Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (2 DL, 3 LB’s, and 3 DB’s)
• Specialists Returning: 1, (1 P)
Conclusion
So after all that, I have the Hornets pegged at an optimistic 6-5 (5-3 BSC) record. This can easily vary +/- 2 games in either direction depending on how things come together and if the Hornets can finally find a season where key players can stay healthy (knock on wood). If the offense can get up and running in fall camp, I think there is a legitimate chance the Hornets can knock off another FBS program. Even with the reloading that needs to occur in the Hornets starting lineup; there are a couple of opponents on the schedule that should and need to be wins regardless. The schedule is well balanced between road and home locations, and Sperbeck has proven that this Hornet team can beat anyone when everything is in gear. If this team keeps its focus and shows up to play every week; the Hornets should have no problem putting together a respectable 2012 season.
Go Hornets!!!
Abbreviations:
- • T – Incoming Transfer
• R – Redshirt Already Used
• G – Grayshirt
• SR – Senior
• JR – Junior
• SO – Sophomore
• FR - Freshman
Rule Changes
I’ve reviewed the rule changes and here is what I was able to gather:
- • The kickoffs will be placed at the 35 yard line. Touchbacks from kickoffs (free kicks) will now be brought out to the 25 yard line.
• Touchbacks from punts, fumbles, etc will still be brought out to the 20 yard line (no change here).
• A fair catch can be called on a free kick even if the ball is immediately kicked into the ground first. I take this to mean a one bounce on-side kick can be fair caught. Kickers will have to execute an on-side kick with multiple bounces to avoid a possible fair catch.
• Kick-off coverage teams cannot lineup farther than 5 yards behind the ball (similar to what the NFL implemented last season).
• Players can no longer leap over a blocker in an attempt to block a punt but they can jump straight up and down. Players can also jump through gaps and openings between players in an attempt to block the punt. I do not know how this will be handled if one of the up-backs goes to block at a thigh to waist high level and the blocker jumps over the blocker to avoid contact. I can see the BSC refs completely botching this penalty call often, especially against an aggressive punt blocking team like ours.
• Blocks below the waist are allowed for players who lineup in the box and are not in motion at the snap. I’m not sure if this means chop blocks are fair game but it sounds like they are legit now.
• If a player’s helmet comes off, it is treated like an injury and that player has to sit out a play. This does not take affect if the helmet was yanked off during a facemask penalty.
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect...roves+rules+changes+in+football,+other+sports
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/connect...ERES&CACHEID=ae50a0004b568515984ebd98b2d2e5a1
hno: :thumbdown:
