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2013 Sac State Preview

SDHornet

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2013 Sac State Preview

Time to dust off the tailgate gear and get ready for another season of Hornet football. The Hornets will be looking to build off of a so-so 2012 campaign that featured a new spread no-huddle offense and an aggressive defense that ultimately resulted in a middle of the road finish of 6-5 (4-4 BSC). Coach Sperbeck enters his seventh season with the Hornets and will be looking to finally get this program over the hump and into a playoff berth. A lot of players are returning so the potential is there for a breakthrough season, the question is whether or not the Hornets can finally do it.

If anyone wants to review what the team did last season, feel free to read up on last season’s recaps as I won’t be reposting many 2012 stats in this preview:

2012 Overall Recap: http://www.bigskyfans.com/hornets/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1837
2012 Special Teams Recap: http://www.bigskyfans.com/hornets/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1847
2012 Offense Recap: http://www.bigskyfans.com/hornets/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1857
2012 Defense Recap: http://www.bigskyfans.com/hornets/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1866
2012 Stats: http://www.hornetsports.com/sports/fball/2012-13/teams/sacramentost

There are some areas to address and the coaches brought in a lot of players to meet those needs. There was also some turnover on the coaching staff and it remains to be seen how much of an impact it will have. Not a whole lot needs to be said, its time for the program to breakthrough to the next level.

All projected starters listed below are based off of what I have seen in camp and the first scrimmage. The experience listed are career numbers, non-D1 experience is not included. The revamped Hornetsports website has the updated player classes listed but I also provide an abbreviations legend at the end of this preview for reference. As always everything is up for discussion so feel free to point out any errors or provide your opinions.

Offense
The offense will be looking to build off of a respectable showing last season as OC Peterson enters his second season with the Hornets. The offense seemed to play with more confidence as they became more familiar with the new system and with a lot of key players returning the hope will be to see increased production and scoring. The pressure is on here, the Hornets really need to hit the ground running on offense. Just as last season, I expect a bunch of different receivers to be targeted as well as touches by multiple running backs. The biggest improvement needs to be seen in the turnover category. Reduced turnovers coupled with modest production/scoring improvement should be more than enough for the Hornet offense to succeed.

Quarterback
I don’t anticipate a change at quarterback as Garrett Safron enters his fourth season with the Hornets and second as the starting QB. Depth was an issue in spring camp, however Marcus McDade transferred in from Fresno State to add depth behind Safron. Beyond those two it will all be about developing the young QBs for the future. Jihad Vercher is getting solid reps in during camp but it remains to be seen whether or not he is redshirted this season. With the recent departure of Nolan Sorensen, the coaches might be hard pressed to redshirt both freshmen.

Starter:
  • • (#12) Garrett Safron, RJR (14 starts, 19 appearances)
Bench:
  • • (#14) Marcus McDade, T-RSO (2 appearances at Fresno State)
    • (#6) Jihad Vercher, FR (possible redshirt)
    • (#16) Daniel Kniffin, FR (probable redshirt)
Wide Receivers
The receivers will be led by senior standout Morris Norrise, and have a host of other receivers returning. Last season this group lacked a playmaker that could go up and make the big play and the coaches brought in JC transfers Joey DePalma, Kyle Greenwood, and Dalton Hunkle to address this need. Someone will need to step up to complement Norrise. The offensive scheme calls for the ball to be distributed all over the field so there will be plenty of opportunities for someone to step up.

Starters:
  • • (#13) Morris Norrise, RSR (22 starts, 34 appearances, leading receiver last season, Preseason All-BSC Team)
    • (#2) DeAndre Carter, JR (10 starts, 18 appearances)
    • (#15) Shane Harrison, RSO (10 appearances)
Bench:
  • • (#81) Blake Robertson, RSO (11 starts)
    • (#87) Justin Cox, RSO (1 start, 9 appearances, injured and out thru week 6)
    • (#86) Nnamdi Agude, RSO (8 appearances)
    • (#10) Austin Dotson, SR (6 appearances)
    • (#11) Joey DePalma/ (#84) Kyle Greenwood/ (#5) Dalton Hunkle, all T-JR
    • (#36) Devin Hardy, RSO
    • (#19) JB Blackwell, (#82) Aaron Maher, (#86) Bakari Smith, all FR (probable redshirts)
Tight Ends
There is some experience returning at tight end and more than likely will feature a constant rotation of players throughout the season. It appears that Chris Broadnax will be the starting tight end as he has seen the most reps with the first team in camp. Broadnax is the better receiver of the bunch while DJ Maciel is the better run blocker while some of the underclassmen may also see some action from time to time. Freshman recruit Stone Sander is getting significant reps in camp and may also be in the mix if he isn’t redshirted.

Starter:
  • • (#80) Chris Broadnax, RJR (6 starts, 16 appearances)
Bench:
  • • (#47) DJ Maciel, RSR (8 starts, 28 appearances)
    • (#89) Marcus Mosi, RSO
    • (#85) Cole Hikutini, RFR
    • (#41) Stone Sander, FR (probable redshirt)
Running Backs
A couple of talented running backs return and some newcomers are added to the mix as well. Ezekiel Graham is the clear cut favorite to start but everything else beyond that is fair game. De’Jon Coleman returns and he made some good plays last season. Much like all the other skilled positions, I anticipate that the RBs will be rotated in so there will be plenty of opportunities for different players to get touches both through the air and on the ground.

Starter:
  • • (#8) Ezekiel Graham, SR (5 starts, 11 appearances, leading rusher last season)
Bench:
  • • (#9) De’Jon Coleman, SO (9 appearances)
    • (#4) Demetrius Warren, RFR
    • (#40) Brandon Kellermann, T-JR (fullback)
    • (#25) Jordan Robinson, FR (probable redshirt)
Offensive Line
The offensive line has a new coach with Bill Laveroni coming on board. The OL has been one of the more consistent units on the offense and hopefully things remain that way. The Hornets had some young linemen in Lars Hanson and Aleksandar Milanovic step up at the tackle spots last season and alongside seasoned veteran Tyler Worthley will look to have another solid season in the trenches. There were some voids due to graduation which will be filled by UMass transfer John Wallace as well as lineman Derek Stickney and Dan Stournaiuolo who are both returning from injury. The three returning linemen will most likely retain their starting roles from last season and Wallace and Nielsen have seen the most reps with the first team in camp. There is a hoard of linemen on the roster to add depth when needed.

Starters:
  • • LT: (#76) Lars Hanson, RSO (7 starts, 10 appearances)
    • LG: (#50) Derek Nielsen, T-RJR (2 starts, 10 appearances at Oregon State)
    • C: (#51) John Wallace, T-RSO (4 starts, 10 appearances at UMass)
    • RG: (#73) Tyler Worthley, RSR (33 straight starts, Preseason All-BSC Team)
    • RT: (#61) Aleksandar Milanovic, RSO (10 starts, 11 appearances)
Bench:
  • • (#74) Derek Stickney, RJR (8 starts, 10 appearances)
    • (#79) Dan Stornaiuolo, RSO
    • (#75) Adam Murray, T-RSR
    • (#70) Casey Dakin, RFR
    • (#72) Andrew Admire, (#65) Pailake Bade, (#68) Jonathan Bade, (#77) Kyle Evanski, (#67) Rajaee Jordan, (#62) Justin Maxwell, (#71) Pu’e Togia, all FR (most are probable redshirts)
Defense
Coach Parker is entering his fourth season as the defensive coordinator (fifth season total). The defense is looking to improve from an up and down season. The front six was the strength of the defense last season and there are some open spots heading into this season. The defensive secondary was not very good and needs to drastically improve this season. The Hornets play an aggressive style of defense that features various blitz packages to pressure opposing quarterbacks and I don’t expect that to change. There are starting spots open at every level of the defense and filling them will be vital for a successful season.

Defensive Line
The defensive line has a lot returning. Nathan Castro will be anchoring this unit on the interior and there will be a platoon of Ben Cowger, Jaycee Totty, and Trent Eskew rotated in at the ends. The interior looked thin with the loss of some previously projected returners, but it looks like the coaches brought in some additional size and depth to fill that need. The coaches rotated in a lot of players along the line throughout last season and will probably do the same this season as well.

Starters:
  • • DE: (#44) Darnell Sankey, SO (11 appearances)
    • NT: (#97) Nathan Castro, JR (6 starts, 20 appearances)
    • DT: (#91) Nicholas Mazza, RSO (9 appearances)
    • DE: (#94) Trent Eskew, SR (6 starts, 31 appearances)
Bench:
  • • (#35) Jaycee Totty, JR (4 starts, 10 appearances, DE, injured?)
    • (#90) Ben Cowger, RJR (5 starts, 21 appearances, DE)
    • (#56) Ronald Ussery, T-RSO (1 appearance at Fresno State, DE)
    • (#59) JJ Castillo, T-RJR (DT)
    • (#92) Antonio Hayes, T-SO (DT)
    • (#93) Noah Johnson, (#95) Nehemiah Mitchell, both RFR (DTs)
    • (#98) Ben Sorensen, (#52) Taka Umufuke, (#96) Jordan Vinson, (#78) Josh Winters, all FR (probable redshirts)
Linebackers
Todd Davis returns at linebacker and will be one of the leaders of this defense. Davis is excellent on the blitz and is a solid run defender but struggles in coverage. Who lines up next to him remains to be seen. Henry Fernandez is the next most experienced returner but quite a few young talented players were brought in to shore up the depth. Given the struggles in pass defense, I hope to see better pass coverage packages rotated in to better compliment the secondary in passing situations.

Starters:
  • • WLB: (#53) Todd Davis, SR (22 straight starts, 33 appearances, leading tackler last 2 seasons)
    • MLB: (#48) Henry Fernandez, SR (30 appearances)
Bench:
  • • (#17) Ofa Fifita, T-RJR (12 appearances at Fresno State)
    • (#55) Max Mathews, RFR
    • (#49) Allen Alvaro, (#54) Cole Hannum, (#27) Russell Smith, all FR (some are probable redshirts)
Defensive Backs
The secondary struggled mightily last season but quite a bit returns. I think every spot is up for grabs but I feel that some of the returners are favored to retain their starting roles. Osagie Odiase and Joshua Armstrong return at CB, Markell Williams returns at NB along with Dijon Washington and Robert Beale who both split time at FS last season. The SS spot is up for grabs and the coaches brought in transfers Robby Kendall, Tyrone Duckett and Mike Sellers to address that void. SS is the crucial component of the secondary. The player who fills that role needs to have the versatility to lineup in the box and stop the run as well as drop back into coverage. Tackling was a major issue last season and the Hornet secondary needs to drastically improve in that regard.

Starters:
  • • CB: (#1) Osagie Odiase, RSR (26 starts, 29 appearances)
    • NB: (#31) Markell Williams, RSR (13 starts, 33 appearances)
    • SS: (#21) Robbie Kendall, T-JR
    • FS: (#3) Dijon Washington, RSR (4 starts, 25 career appearances )
    • CB: (#7) Joshua Armstrong, RSO (10 starts)
Bench:
  • • (#29) Robert Beale, RSR (7 starts, 9 appearances)
    • (#22) Mike Sellers, T-JR (23 appearances at Hawaii)
    • (#32) Tyrone Duckett, T-RJR (11 appearances at Washington State)
    • (#20) Nicholas Payne, RSO (1 start, 9 appearances)
    • (#28) Dexter Alcala, RJR (13 appearances)
    • (#23) Randy Peterson, RJR (18 career appearances)
    • (#24) Anthony Payne, (#37) Tyler Charrette, (#39) Jacob Bowman , all RFR
    • (#33) Nick Crouch, (#38) Cedric Franklin, (#34) Marcus Green, (#46) Aman Jaigat, all FR (some are probable redshirts)

Special Teams
The Hornets are essentially hitting the reset button on special teams. Former Hornet assistant coach Fred Kelley returns but will be taking on a new and unfamiliar role as special teams coach. Almost everything across the board is up for grabs, from long snapping to place kicking and kick returning. It’s safe to say most Hornet fans will be content with consistent and disciplined play every week. This program will not breakthrough to the next level without consistent and well disciplined special teams play.

Kickers
The kicking game found some stability last season but the Hornets will have to find a new place kicker. Fortunately the coaches brought in transfers Jesse Aguilar and Jonathan Leiva to compete with returning kicker Brad Cornish. The punting duties will be held down by Justin Weldon and I randomly selected Cornish as the starting kicker although Aguilar was one of the best kickers in the JC ranks last season. Cornish was used for kickoffs last season.

Starters:
  • • K: (#60) Jesse Aguilar, T-JR
    • P: (#45) Justin Weldon, SR (9 appearances)
Bench:
  • • K: (#58) Brad Cornish, SO (4 appearances)
    • K: (#63) Jonathan Leiva, T-JR
    • P: (#57) Smith Heath, JR (6 appearances)
Long Snapper
The snapping duties will be handled by either returner Josh Latham or transfer Tim Hernandez. It’s a total coin flip but it looked like Hernandez received more reps in camp.

Starter:
  • • (#64) Tim Hernandez, T-JR
Bench:
  • • (#66) Josh Latham, RSO
Punt/Kick Coverage
The coverage teams had their ups and downs last season. Hopefully these units can be more consistent this season. All of these spots will be up open for the taking among the deep and talented Hornet roster.

Punt/Kick Return
The return game will need to be more effective this season. I think that all of the returner spots are open to competition. DeAndre Carter has some experience returning punts and kicks and should be a front runner to fill those roles. Morris Norrise was the primary punt returner last season and De’Jon Coleman had a couple or kick returns. Any player capable of providing an impact has a shot here. Coleman and Kyle Greenwood have been seeing some return reps during camp.

Returners
  • • PR/KR: (#2) DeAndre Carter, JR (6 punt returns, 15 kick returns)
    • PR: (#13) Morris Norrise, RSR (13 punt returns)
    • KR: (#9) De’Jon Coleman, SO (2 kick returns)
    • PR/KR: (#84) Kyle Greenwood, T-JR

Schedule/Predictions
I’ve linked some previews below. The Hornets are pegged to finish in the middle of the pack and it’s hard to make an argument against those predictions. The Hornets do have the talent and experience to breakthrough into the playoffs but whether or not this program can make it to the next level under Sperbeck remains to be seen. I’ll post a game by game win-loss prediction prior to the first game; I was hoping to get one together but couldn’t find the time to include it here.

The Sports Network: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/...ork&page=cfoot2/writers/infcshuddle/index.htm

College Sports Madness: http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/7020

Go Hornets!!!

Abbreviations:
  • • T – Incoming Transfer
    • R – Redshirt Already Used
    • G – Grayshirt
    • SR – Senior
    • JR – Junior
    • SO – Sophomore
    • FR - Freshman
 
Awesome review like always...

A few things

QB...Vircher is the real deal, may not redshirt. Possibly best in camp though I still thing Safron will and should start.

I think with the OL will be fine, and one of the biggest we have had in a long time. Here is hoping they stay healthy. Stickney and Stornaiuolo will add some depth.

WR - The starting three combined for 15 TD's receptions last year and they all missed games due to iinjury. Hopefully a few of the others can step up to add solid depth.

RB - Small quick and nifty is this group...just like last year they will ride the hot hand.

TE - Broadnax and Macial will handle the bulk of the work though I am hearing good things about Hikutini. Mosi is a very good athlete but a little undersized at the TE spot. Would love to see them move him to a FB position in Red Zone and work with Kellerman.

DL - Agreed this will be an ongoing rotation to keep them fresh and effective, especially when dealing with oversized OL.

LB - Love the two starting returners, but depth concerns me in this area

DB - I think we have solid starters and good depth here....may see us in alot of nickel.

SP - TBD :)
 
Predictions
The schedule prediction and opponent returning starters is based off of whatever materials I could find online. Some had to go back to last season’s starting lineups and I have no idea if those held up through the offseason. The Hornets have a brutal start to the season with two road FBS games, but have a good home-away balance the rest of the way. The BSC schedule is not as tough as recent years but the BSC has some talented and coming programs and the Hornets cannot afford to overlook any of their opponents.

Week 1 - 8/29 - @ San Jose State - Loss
San Jose State (11-2, 5-1 WAC) is a program on the upswing and moving into the MWC this season. They had a breakout season last year which resulted in a top 25 ranking and a bowl win but ultimately led to their head coach being hired away by Colorado. How the returning players respond to the coaching shakeup remains to be seen but the Spartans return a deep and talented roster led by one of the best FBS quarterbacks in David Fales along with both leading receivers returning as well. Defensively it sounds like SJSU will be transitioning into a 3-4 but are returning their leading tacklers from last season. I think the Hornets will hang with SJSU for a while but eventually lose to the more talented team.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 7, (1 QB, 2 WR, 4 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 7, (2 DT, 3 LB, 2 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 3, (1 K, 1 P, 1 LS)
Week 2 - 9/5 - @ Arizona State - Loss
Arizona State (8-5, 5-4 Pac12) will look to end the Pac 12’s two year embarrassment at the hands (wings?) of the Hornets as this game marks the Sun Devil’s season opener. ASU is coming into the season following a middle of the pack finish a year ago. Similarly to the Hornets, ASU had a hot start last season only to drop 4 of the last 6 regular season games but finished the season with a bowl win. ASU returns a stellar QB in Taylor Kelly but offensively will have to find some new targets at WR. Some solid dual threat RBs in Marion Grice and DJ Foster return. Defensively ASU looks stacked in the front 7 and returns 3 of their top 5 tacklers. I haven’t picked the Hornets to pull any of the past Pac 12 upsets and I’m not going to ruin that streak here.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 QB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (4 DL, 2 LB, 1 CB, 1 S)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 LS)
Week 3 - 9/14 – vs. Southern Oregon – Win
Southern Oregon (9-3, 8-2 Frontier) enters the season ranked at #14 at the NAIA level after reaching the 2nd round of the playoffs last season. SOU likes to spread the field out with multiple receiver sets and air it out so this game will really test the secondary. SOU’s stud QB Austin Dodge returns but all of his weapons graduated, including the top rusher and top five receivers. Defensively the Raiders don’t return much up front so the Hornet OL should dominate. This game needs to be a decisive victory for the Hornets. It could be tough coming into this off of back to back road FBS money games, but there is no excuse for struggling in a play down game.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 QB, 4 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 DL, 3 LB, 4 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (2 K)
Week 4 - 9/21 – vs. Southern Utah (OOC) – Win
Southern Utah (5-6, 4-4 BSC) will be entering the season looking for a new QB and a rebound from a disappointing 2012 campaign. The Thunderbirds have a lot of voids to fill on both sides of the ball. The offense will have a foundation on which to rebuild which features some good size up front and some weapons to throw to. The Thunderbird defense will have to find 5 new starters in the front 7 but do return a talented and experienced secondary. The Hornets finally got a win in the state of Utah at SUU’s expense and will be looking for another win over SUU at Hornet Stadium. I think the Hornets can make it 2 in a row against SUU.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (3 WR, 3 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 DL, 1 LB, 4 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
Week 5 - 9/28 - @ Weber State – Win
Weber State (2-9, 2-6 BSC) had a horrific season last year. A lot of which was a result of their head coach bailing weeks before the season started and it only got worse from that point on. WSU filled its coaching ranks with some of the ousted Montana coaching staff and will be looking to rebuild a program that is only a handful of years removed from a BSC co-championship. WSU returns almost the entirety of their OL but will need to find pretty much everything else on offense. Defensively they have a few holes to fill but return some talent at LB and in the secondary. The good news for the Wildcats is that they have never lost to the Hornets in Ogden. The bad news for ‘Cat fans is the Hornets finally got the Mormon State monkey off their back last season and will be looking to keep that going this season. I think the Hornets can keep the Utah streak alive.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 WR, 4 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 7, (2 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
Week 6 - 10/5 – vs. Northern Colorado – Win
Northern Colorado (5-6, 4-4 BSC) had a breakthrough season last year and has a lot of players returning. They will be looking to continue their progress with their first ever win against the Hornets. If the Bears offense can patch together an OL, they should be able to have some good offensive production this season. Defensively the Bears return two of the best LBs in the BSC but have a few holes to patch up front and in the secondary. I think the Hornets keep the unbeaten streak against UNC alive, but the Hornets have struggled against UNC in recent years and this may be another one of those games.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 7, (1 QB, 2 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 2 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 1, (1 K)
Week 7 - 10/12 – vs. Northern Arizona – Loss
Northern Arizona (8-3, 6-2 BSC) had an amazing season a year ago which ended with some disappointing losses late in the season that ultimately cost them a playoff berth. The Lumberjacks return almost everyone on both sides of the ball including standout RB Zach Bauman who is one of the best RBs in FCS. The ‘Jacks will need to find a QB but will have the key components to make another run at a BSC championship and playoff berth. I think the Hornets will struggle to slow Bauman down and that will be the difference.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 7, (2 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 9, (3 DL, 2 LB, 4 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
Week 8 - 10/19 - @ North Dakota – Win
North Dakota (5-6, 3-5 BSC) had an up and down season last year and will have a lot of question marks entering the season. UND does return some potent weapons on offense including standout WRs Greg Hardin and Jameer Jackson as well as talented RB Jake Miller. However UND does not have an experienced QB returning and has a lot of voids to fill on the OL. Defensively UND has to find some players to step up on the DL but do return almost all of their LBs and DBs on a defense that was very porous last season. This is a winnable game if the Hornets can get over the long travel and not pull a total no-show as they did against UND last season.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (2 WR, 1 RB, 2 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 7, (4 LB, 3 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 1, (1 K)
Week 9 – Bye

Week 10 - 11/2 – vs. Montana – Win
Montana (5-6, 3-5 BSC) is coming off of their worst season in almost two decades. UM is trying to put their off the field issues behind them and rebound in the 2nd year under head coach Mick Delaney. Montana returns quarterback Jordan Johnson from a year off due to off the field issues in hopes he can lead this program back to BSC prominence. Offensively UM has to replace all their leading receivers and leading rusher but return their a lot up front. Defensively the Grizzlies return a lot but will need better play from their secondary to have an effective effort. The Hornets last played UM in 2011 and completely spanked them; I think the Hornets pull off another win over the Grizzlies at Hornet Stadium this season.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 QB, 4 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (3 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K. 1 P)
Week 11 - 11/9 – @ Cal Poly – Loss
Cal Poly (9-3, 7-1 BSC) is looking to follow up a playoff win and co-BSC Championship from a season ago with another similar run this season. The Hornets got the best of the Mustangs last season but this season the Hornets will head to their home to face a CP team that will be looking for revenge. CP has a lot to replace on offense but did land former touted HS recruit Dano Graves who transferred from Air Force. Defensively the Mustangs return a lot, specifically six of the front seven starters from last season. The Mustang defense will be key if they are to make another playoff appearance. This game is late in the season and I think the Mustangs will work out a lot of their shortcoming by the time this game is played, so I have this as a loss for the Hornets.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 FB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (4 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
Week 12 – 11/16 - @ Portland State - Win
Portland State (3-8, 2-6 BSC) will be searching for answers this season. The Vikings followed a resurgent 2011 season with an abysmal 2012 season that left the PSU program with more questions than answers. Offensively the Vikings do return some talent at QB and RB in hopes that their pistol attack gets back on track. Defensively they return a lot from a porous defense and will look to see if some development has occurred from the young talent that struggled last season. I think the Hornets can win this game if they take care of business.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 8, (3 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 1, (1K)
Week 13 - 11/23 – vs. the farm extension – Win
The farm extension (4-7, 3-5 BSC) will be breaking in a new coaching staff and there is no telling how the returning players respond to this change. They return some key players on both sides of the ball but it remains to be seen if this team can be consistent enough to pull this program out of the bottom rung of the BSC. Their defense will need to find some LBs to replace their top two tacklers. The Hornets cannot have a successful season without winning the Causeway. Hopefully poor special teams play and blown calls TD calls won’t cost the Hornets a win this season.
  • • Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 QB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB, 3 OL)
    • Defensive Starters Returning: 7, (3 DL, 1 LB, 3 DB)
    • Specialists Returning: 1, (1 K)
Conclusion
I have the Hornets pegged at an overly optimistic 8-4 (6-2 BSC) record. This can easily vary from anywhere from 5 wins to maybe 9 if the stars align and the Big Man up stairs comes to reclaim this shithole called Earth. Marginal improvements on offense coupled with significantly improved pass coverage and consistent special teams should be enough to propel this middle of the road Hornet program into the playoffs. The Hornets have the talent to generate a breakthrough season, however I’ve been a Hornet fan long enough to know that something will go wrong somewhere; maybe this is the season where that doesn’t happen. Is that asking too much?

Go Hornets!!!
 
I would swap the NAU and UND outcomes. But agree with everything else. 8-4 overall, 6-2 in The Sky.

Incidentally, Poly is starting neither one of the Folsom kids at QB. Be really interesting to see how that plays out.
 
SactoHornetAlum said:
I would swap the NAU and UND outcomes. But agree with everything else. 8-4 overall, 6-2 in The Sky.

Incidentally, Poly is starting neither one of the Folsom kids at QB. Be really interesting to see how that plays out.
Yeah, I think there is a good chance both will be losses. If UND finds a QB their offense should be good and if they have a defense this season then they will be a team to watch in the BSC.

When we played NAU 2 years ago, Bauman ran roughshod on our defense but we still would have won the game if we had a kicker. I think the game will be a total coin flip this season. What concerns me is NAU played better on the road than at home last season.

I haven’t followed any of CP’s offseason changes. They won the schedule sweepstakes last season and have a slightly tougher one this season so I expect them to be in the mix again this season.
 
My thoughts on SD's outstanding schedule predictions:

1. A coaching change AND a change of philosophy for SJSU's defense? Historically, they have never been able to sustain anything from year to year, and those two issues alone exacerbate the issue. Does that guarantee a Hornet win? By no means, but I think the chances are pretty good.

W

2. The same issue (I.e. what I said about SJSU) applies to us. We will be hard-pressed to continue our tenure as Da Pac-12 Killaz against a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 squad (e.g. NOT a bottom feeder like Colorado) who will likely not look past us. A Hornet win is certainly within the realm of possibility (ASU is by no means Alabama), but I'll call this one:

L

3. SOU will be as good a game as we're likely to find from a NAIA/NCAA D-II foe. (Yes, the Raiders have dual membership.) But we have their film, and Coach Sperbeck is not about to allow our Hornets to look past a "lesser" foe. If he plays his cards right, we'll see a decent point spread AND get some lower-tier player development in, similar to an NFL pre-season game.

W

4. SUU will be fighting mad at us as their season of high expectations faded away after we beat them. But that won't be good enough to beat the improved Hornets.

W

5. Weber is always a tough game regardless of relative records. This one will be close, but as they say, no cigar for the Wildcats.

W

6. UNC has the nasty habit of raising expectations with a few phony wins, and then falling back to Earth. Expect that trend to continue.

W

7. This is right about when the Lumberjacks begin their late-season swoon. They missed out on that last season, but I don't think that will last very long.

W

8. UND is another one of those teams with a conglomeration of fans that have an over-inflated sense of where their team really is. No, not every fan is like that, but those who are can be quite vocal. Deflating them will be quite enjoyable.

W

9. We will win the bye. ;-)

10. We ALWAYS have problems with Montana, but I think we just might be over the hump. This will be a close one, but....

W

11. CP is going to make some noise this year. I think this is the game that will make or break the season for us. I'd love to beat them, but this will be a huge test for us. Are our boys up to the challenge?

W

12. As long as we don't look past them or get lazy, we will beat PSU.

W

13. As with any rivalry game, the Manure Pile will be tough regardless of relative record. I think we have enough talent and coaching ability to take them out, though.

W

Yes, I'm being VERY optimistic with this bold 11-1 prediction. Many things will have to break our way, and our guys will have to play at the top of their game. But if there was ANY year for us to break out, THIS is it. The schedule is tailor-made for us to run the table in conference as there are no EWU/MSU to worry about. Posting 11-1/8-0 may or may not be enough to get the auto-bid with those guys involved (the tie-breakers will be huge this year, I think), but we stand a good chance of at least getting an at-large playoff bid. I doubt we get a seed or a bye, however, even with a record like this, because EWU/MSU will snatch them up. Also, since again we don't face EWU/MSU, we will have some leeway for a hiccup or two (i.e. against CP) and still be in the hunt for the auto-bid (if the Big Two ALSO have one) or, more likely, for an at-large. SD's prediction is MUCH more likely than mine (injuries or the lack thereof will also play a key part), but I think this is well within the range of opportunity, much more so than has been the case in the past with my unfortunate myopianism.

What say you?
 
This is how I see the league:

1) MSU: McGhee is the key
2) EWU: How quickly will Eastern's new receivers develop?
3) Poly: Will Poly's new QB's and receivers be any good?
4) NAU: How will NAU's new QB fare?
5) SAC: Will SAC's inexperienced defense rise to the occasion?
6) UND: Will UND capitalize on 7 home games?
7) UM: Is Johnson that much of a difference?
8) UNC: Still developing on both sides of the ball.
9) SUU: SUU will have a tough time breaking in new offensive players.
10) PSU: Will PSU's run game develop?
11) WSU: Can WSU get over all the off-season drama?
12) ucd: How willl the farm extension fare under a coach outside the aggie family?
13) ISU: Showed some improvements last year. Will it continue?
 

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