2015 Sac State Predictions
The Hornets are picked 7th in the BSC coaches poll and there are plenty of tough match-ups on the schedule. If players can step up and fill the voids on the offensive line and if the Hornets can get some consistent play with minimal mistakes/turnovers from Kniffin at quarterback then I think the offense will be able to move the ball and put up some points. Couple that with improved defensive play from last season along with a solid kicking game (both kickers return) then there is an outside chance that this team can be in playoff contention.
The returning starter information is based off of whatever materials I could find online. The NCAA website, game notes and online rosters were most commonly used. If a player started half or more games the previous season then I consider that player to be a returning starter. Players that previously started but missed last season due to injury or other reasons are not considered returning starters.
Week 1 - 9/5 - vs Eastern Oregon - Win
Eastern Oregon (8-3, 7-3 Frontier) finished 2014 on a 4 game wining streak and knocked off multiple top ranked NAIA teams. Offensively the Mountaineers were well balanced last season and put up over 36 ppg behind dual threat QB Zach Bartlow. EOU lost a few of its skilled starters and graduated a lot of their size up front but return leading rusher and receiver Jace Billingsley. Defensively EOU runs a 3-4 and graduated 4 of their front 7 that held opponents to under 26 ppg.
Week 2 - 9/12 - @ Washington - Loss
Washington (8-6, 4-5 Pac12) is looking to rebound from a disappointing 2014 season and will have to do so by filling a lot of voids. For the Huskies, it starts with finding a new QB following the retirement of Cyler Miles due to injury. The Huskies also graduated a lot up front but return leading receiver Jaydon Mickens and leading rusher Dwayne Washington. Defensively, UW was decimated by graduation and the draft and doesn’t return many starters for their 3-4 defense. The Huskies graduated their entire DL and with the early departure to the NFL by Shaq Thompson, only return 1 starter in the front seven. UW does return everyone in the secondary which is led by Budda Baker.
Week 3 - 9/19 – at Weber State – Win
Weber State (2-10, 2-6 BSC) enters their 2nd season under Head Coach Jay Hill as he continues the rebuilding process. The Wildcats were competitive in many games last season, but they struggled to find a QB that was able to lead the offense as both Billy Green and Jadrian Clark split starts. WSU returns play makers Cameron Livingston at WR and Zach Smith at RB along with most of their OL to fill out their single back offense. Defensively the Wildcats lose some players up front but return leading tackler Felix Woods at LB as well as all but one starter in the secondary of their 4-3 base defense.
Week 4 - 9/26 – vs. Eastern Washington – Loss
Eastern Washington (11-3, 9-1 BSC) won the BSC last season and advanced to the semi-finals of the playoffs and look to continue their dominance in the BSC. Standout QB Vernon Adams transferred to Oregon for his final season of eligibility; however the Eags still return a standout trio at WR comprised of Cooper Kupp, Kendrick Bourne, and Shaq Hill for their spread attack. Defensively, EWU graduated 3 of their top 4 tacklers and has some voids to fill in their 4-3 system.
Week 5 - 10/3 – vs. Northern Colorado – Win
Northern Colorado (3-8, 2-6 BSC) returned to their dumpster fire status last season and could not build off of an improved 2013 campaign. The Bears gave the Hornets a run for their money last season and arguably should have pulled off their first ever win against the Hornets…but they didn’t. UNC doesn’t return many skilled players to their 2-back offensive set. QB Sean Rubalcaba left in the offseason leaving Jonathan Newsom as the only QB on the roster with any experience. The only returning playmaker of note is WR Stephen Miller, but the entire OL does return. The Bears lost a lot of their starting DL, but return 3 of their top 4 tacklers from their 4-3 defense.
Week 6 - 10/10 – at Montana State – Loss
Montana State (8-5, 5-3 BSC) had a good 2014 season but failed to live up to expectations with a blowout loss to Montana and a loss in the first round of the playoffs, both at home. Offensively MSU is stacked. Dual threat QB Dakota Prukop returns to lead the single back offense along with a slough of WRs led by Mitch Griebel. All but one OL starter returns so MSU shouldn’t have an issue finding a RB that can produce. Defensively, the Bobcats graduated everyone from a 4-3 defense that had plenty of struggles a season ago.
Week 7 - 10/17 - @ Southern Utah – Win
Southern Utah (3-9, 3-5 BSC) had a down 2014 season; however the offense moved the ball well through the air but struggled to put up points. Most of that Thunderbird offense returns as QB Ammon Olsen leads a pass happy attack. Leading WR Chris Robinson graduated; however Olsen will still target WRs Justin Brown and Mike Sharp as well as RB Malik Brown out of the back field. The SUU defense returns some starters for their 4-3 defense and 4 of their top 5 tacklers from a season ago, including standout DE James Cowser and solid DB’s LeShaun Sims and Miles Killebrew.
Week 8 - 10/24 – vs. Idaho State – Loss
Idaho State (8-4, 6-2 BSC) had a breakout 2014 season and would been in the playoffs had they done a better job of scheduling. Offensively the Bengals are known for throwing the ball all over the field in their spread attack; however last year they hurt teams on the ground as well. ISU lost QB Justin Arias to graduation so they will need to find a new QB, but they return a top notch RB in Xavier Finney and all their WRs led by Madison Mangum and KW Williams as well as TE Josh Cook. Defensively the Bengals lost a lot of starters from their 4-3 defense, but they return 3 of their top 4 tacklers which are led by LB Mario Jenkins and DB Taison Manu.
Week 9 – 10/31 - Bye
Week 10 - 11/7 – @ Cal Poly – Loss
Cal Poly (7-5, 5-3 BSC) would have made the playoffs last season if they wouldn’t have had an embarrassing loss to the dungpilers. The Mustangs could be in the playoff hunt this season if they can overcome a brutal early season schedule. CP’s triple option attack will be led by returning QB Chris Brown and RB Kori Garcia. CP will have to find a FB and a slotback, but almost the entire OL returns so expect this offense to move the ball at will on the ground. Defensively, CP graduated their entire LB group from their 4-3 defense. That will be their biggest hole heading into the 2015 season. The Mustangs return 2 of their top 5 leading tacklers which include DB Chris Fletcher and DE Josh Letuligasenoa.
Week 11 - 11/14– at Northern Arizona – Win
Northern Arizona (7-5, 5-3 BSC) had some shocking wins last season and countered that with some shocking losses as well. The Lumberjacks would have been a fringe playoff team last season had they not lost some games late in the season. NAU split starts at QB last season and Kyren Poe returns and will be trying to lock down the starting role this offseason. The Lumberjacks have plenty of holes at the skilled positions as WR Alex Holmes is the only playmaker returning. Defensively NAU graduated a lot from their 4-2-5 defense, especially at LB and in the secondary. However 2 of their top 5 tacklers return including safeties Eddie Horn and Darius Lewis.
Week 12 - 11/21 – vs. the farm extension – Win
The farm extension (2-9, 1-8 BSC) had their most embarrassing D1 season ever last year but have nowhere to go but up. Coach Gould is in his 3rd season and will start relying solely on his recruits from this point on. They return a capable QB in Ben Scott who will have leading WR Ramon Vargas to target, but lost playmaking RB Gabe Manzanares. With both of their starting RBs gone from their 2 RB set, I expect defenses to have a more balanced approach as opposed to a run first defensive scheme. Defensively almost everyone returns to their 4-3 defense, however last season they were a mess and couldn’t stop anyone. Their defensive unit should improve; it just can’t be that bad 2 years in a row.
Conclusion
I have the Hornets pegged at a somewhat successful (and optimistic) 6-5 (4-4 BSC) record. The 2015 schedule is tougher than last season; however there are still some teams on the schedule that the Hornets have no business losing to. If Coach Sears has this team ready every week, there is no reason this team shouldn’t finish in the middle of the BSC.
Depending on how the voids on OL are filled and how that unit can protect Kniffin impacts the range of wins the Hornets are capable of (between 3 and 7 IMO). The good news is the Hornets will be facing a lot of defenses that have question marks up front; this bodes well for a team that is replacing 3 starters on the OL and breaking in a new QB. Defenses in the BSC are very porous and generally speaking, aren’t very good. The Hornet offense should be able to get things going if this unit can get on the same page.
Defensively the Hornets will have some high powered offenses to try and slow down, but history tells us this unit will struggle once again. I would like to believe that the Hornet defense will improve from last season if Sankey stays healthy and the secondary continues to improve. We’ll just have to see how it plays out. My biggest concern will be the inability to get pressure on opposing QBs. The Hornets are young and inexperienced at DE so that will probably be an issue. The Hornet coaching staff might have to get creative to get pressure.
Not much about special teams has been discussed, but the Hornets have a quality kicking game returning. So long as these units don’t make major mistakes then we should expect consistent play in this area.
Go Hornets!!!
The Hornets are picked 7th in the BSC coaches poll and there are plenty of tough match-ups on the schedule. If players can step up and fill the voids on the offensive line and if the Hornets can get some consistent play with minimal mistakes/turnovers from Kniffin at quarterback then I think the offense will be able to move the ball and put up some points. Couple that with improved defensive play from last season along with a solid kicking game (both kickers return) then there is an outside chance that this team can be in playoff contention.
The returning starter information is based off of whatever materials I could find online. The NCAA website, game notes and online rosters were most commonly used. If a player started half or more games the previous season then I consider that player to be a returning starter. Players that previously started but missed last season due to injury or other reasons are not considered returning starters.
Week 1 - 9/5 - vs Eastern Oregon - Win
Eastern Oregon (8-3, 7-3 Frontier) finished 2014 on a 4 game wining streak and knocked off multiple top ranked NAIA teams. Offensively the Mountaineers were well balanced last season and put up over 36 ppg behind dual threat QB Zach Bartlow. EOU lost a few of its skilled starters and graduated a lot of their size up front but return leading rusher and receiver Jace Billingsley. Defensively EOU runs a 3-4 and graduated 4 of their front 7 that held opponents to under 26 ppg.
- • 2014 Offense: 36.5 ppg, 212.5 ypg-rushing, 215.0 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 4, (1 QB, 1 WR, 1 RB, 1 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 25.8 ppg, 169.5 ypg-rushing, 195.4 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2 (2 K)
Week 2 - 9/12 - @ Washington - Loss
Washington (8-6, 4-5 Pac12) is looking to rebound from a disappointing 2014 season and will have to do so by filling a lot of voids. For the Huskies, it starts with finding a new QB following the retirement of Cyler Miles due to injury. The Huskies also graduated a lot up front but return leading receiver Jaydon Mickens and leading rusher Dwayne Washington. Defensively, UW was decimated by graduation and the draft and doesn’t return many starters for their 3-4 defense. The Huskies graduated their entire DL and with the early departure to the NFL by Shaq Thompson, only return 1 starter in the front seven. UW does return everyone in the secondary which is led by Budda Baker.
- • 2014 Offense: 30.2 ppg, 188.6 ypg-rushing, 200.1 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 24.8 ppg, 124.1 ypg-rushing, 286.6 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 LB, 4 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
Week 3 - 9/19 – at Weber State – Win
Weber State (2-10, 2-6 BSC) enters their 2nd season under Head Coach Jay Hill as he continues the rebuilding process. The Wildcats were competitive in many games last season, but they struggled to find a QB that was able to lead the offense as both Billy Green and Jadrian Clark split starts. WSU returns play makers Cameron Livingston at WR and Zach Smith at RB along with most of their OL to fill out their single back offense. Defensively the Wildcats lose some players up front but return leading tackler Felix Woods at LB as well as all but one starter in the secondary of their 4-3 base defense.
- • 2014 Offense: 21.8 ppg, 135.6 ypg-rushing, 249.5 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 4 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 30.7 ppg, 214.9 ypg-rushing, 231.3 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 P/K, 1 LS)
• BSC Preseason Team: None
Week 4 - 9/26 – vs. Eastern Washington – Loss
Eastern Washington (11-3, 9-1 BSC) won the BSC last season and advanced to the semi-finals of the playoffs and look to continue their dominance in the BSC. Standout QB Vernon Adams transferred to Oregon for his final season of eligibility; however the Eags still return a standout trio at WR comprised of Cooper Kupp, Kendrick Bourne, and Shaq Hill for their spread attack. Defensively, EWU graduated 3 of their top 4 tacklers and has some voids to fill in their 4-3 system.
- • 2014 Offense: 44.1 ppg, 185.2 ypg-rushing, 328.2 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 7, (1 TE, 3 WR, 3 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 31.3 ppg, 175.4 ypg-rushing, 266.4 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (2 DL, 1 LB, 3 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P/K)
• BSC Preseason Team: OG Aaron Neary, OT Clay DeBord, WR Cooper Kupp, DE Samson Ebukam
Week 5 - 10/3 – vs. Northern Colorado – Win
Northern Colorado (3-8, 2-6 BSC) returned to their dumpster fire status last season and could not build off of an improved 2013 campaign. The Bears gave the Hornets a run for their money last season and arguably should have pulled off their first ever win against the Hornets…but they didn’t. UNC doesn’t return many skilled players to their 2-back offensive set. QB Sean Rubalcaba left in the offseason leaving Jonathan Newsom as the only QB on the roster with any experience. The only returning playmaker of note is WR Stephen Miller, but the entire OL does return. The Bears lost a lot of their starting DL, but return 3 of their top 4 tacklers from their 4-3 defense.
- • 2014 Offense: 19.5 ppg, 107.6 ypg-rushing, 232.0 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 RB, 2 WR, 5 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 30.6 ppg, 209.2 ypg-rushing, 210.0 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 DL, 2 LB, 3 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
• BSC Preseason Team: None
Week 6 - 10/10 – at Montana State – Loss
Montana State (8-5, 5-3 BSC) had a good 2014 season but failed to live up to expectations with a blowout loss to Montana and a loss in the first round of the playoffs, both at home. Offensively MSU is stacked. Dual threat QB Dakota Prukop returns to lead the single back offense along with a slough of WRs led by Mitch Griebel. All but one OL starter returns so MSU shouldn’t have an issue finding a RB that can produce. Defensively, the Bobcats graduated everyone from a 4-3 defense that had plenty of struggles a season ago.
- • 2014 Offense: 38.2 ppg, 244.4 ypg-rushing, 244.2 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 QB, 3 WR, 4 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 33.3 ppg, 192.1 ypg-rushing, 293.8 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 3, (2 DL, 1 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 3, (1 K, 1 P, 1 LS)
• BSC Preseason Team: QB Dakota Prukop, OG JP Flynn, OT John Weidenaar, DT Taylor Sheridan, ST Chad Newell
Week 7 - 10/17 - @ Southern Utah – Win
Southern Utah (3-9, 3-5 BSC) had a down 2014 season; however the offense moved the ball well through the air but struggled to put up points. Most of that Thunderbird offense returns as QB Ammon Olsen leads a pass happy attack. Leading WR Chris Robinson graduated; however Olsen will still target WRs Justin Brown and Mike Sharp as well as RB Malik Brown out of the back field. The SUU defense returns some starters for their 4-3 defense and 4 of their top 5 tacklers from a season ago, including standout DE James Cowser and solid DB’s LeShaun Sims and Miles Killebrew.
- • 2014 Offense: 23.2 ppg, 103.2 ypg-rushing, 320.9 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 4 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 35.6 ppg, 237.8 ypg-rushing, 285.8 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 6, (2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
• BSC Preseason Team: DE James Cowser, CB LeShaun Sims, S Miles Killebrew
Week 8 - 10/24 – vs. Idaho State – Loss
Idaho State (8-4, 6-2 BSC) had a breakout 2014 season and would been in the playoffs had they done a better job of scheduling. Offensively the Bengals are known for throwing the ball all over the field in their spread attack; however last year they hurt teams on the ground as well. ISU lost QB Justin Arias to graduation so they will need to find a new QB, but they return a top notch RB in Xavier Finney and all their WRs led by Madison Mangum and KW Williams as well as TE Josh Cook. Defensively the Bengals lost a lot of starters from their 4-3 defense, but they return 3 of their top 4 tacklers which are led by LB Mario Jenkins and DB Taison Manu.
- • 2014 Offense: 40.3 ppg, 213.9 ypg-rushing, 348.1 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 9, (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR, 4 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 31.4 ppg, 183.7 ypg-rushing, 291.1 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 LS)
• BSC Preseason Team: RB Xavier Finney, C Christian Diehm, WR Madison Mangum, DT Tyler Kuder, OLB Mario Jenkins, S Taison Manu
Week 9 – 10/31 - Bye
Week 10 - 11/7 – @ Cal Poly – Loss
Cal Poly (7-5, 5-3 BSC) would have made the playoffs last season if they wouldn’t have had an embarrassing loss to the dungpilers. The Mustangs could be in the playoff hunt this season if they can overcome a brutal early season schedule. CP’s triple option attack will be led by returning QB Chris Brown and RB Kori Garcia. CP will have to find a FB and a slotback, but almost the entire OL returns so expect this offense to move the ball at will on the ground. Defensively, CP graduated their entire LB group from their 4-3 defense. That will be their biggest hole heading into the 2015 season. The Mustangs return 2 of their top 5 leading tacklers which include DB Chris Fletcher and DE Josh Letuligasenoa.
- • 2014 Offense: 33.8 ppg, 351.8 ypg-rushing, 130.9 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 8, (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 4 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 28.6 ppg, 179.8 ypg-rushing, 234.0 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 4, (2 DL, 2 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P, 1 LS)
• BSC Preseason Team: RB Kori Garcia
Week 11 - 11/14– at Northern Arizona – Win
Northern Arizona (7-5, 5-3 BSC) had some shocking wins last season and countered that with some shocking losses as well. The Lumberjacks would have been a fringe playoff team last season had they not lost some games late in the season. NAU split starts at QB last season and Kyren Poe returns and will be trying to lock down the starting role this offseason. The Lumberjacks have plenty of holes at the skilled positions as WR Alex Holmes is the only playmaker returning. Defensively NAU graduated a lot from their 4-2-5 defense, especially at LB and in the secondary. However 2 of their top 5 tacklers return including safeties Eddie Horn and Darius Lewis.
- • 2014 Offense: 26.3 ppg, 147.0 ypg-rushing, 272.5 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 6, (1 QB, 1 FB, 1 WR, 3 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 25.7 ppg, 212.9 ypg-rushing, 176.8 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 5, (3 DL, 2 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 2, (1 K, 1 P)
• BSC Preseason Team: FB Nick Butier, TE RJ Rickert, CB Marcus Alford, P Ryan Hawkins
Week 12 - 11/21 – vs. the farm extension – Win
The farm extension (2-9, 1-8 BSC) had their most embarrassing D1 season ever last year but have nowhere to go but up. Coach Gould is in his 3rd season and will start relying solely on his recruits from this point on. They return a capable QB in Ben Scott who will have leading WR Ramon Vargas to target, but lost playmaking RB Gabe Manzanares. With both of their starting RBs gone from their 2 RB set, I expect defenses to have a more balanced approach as opposed to a run first defensive scheme. Defensively almost everyone returns to their 4-3 defense, however last season they were a mess and couldn’t stop anyone. Their defensive unit should improve; it just can’t be that bad 2 years in a row.
- • 2014 Offense: 26.0 ppg, 144.6 ypg-rushing, 232.6 ypg-passing
• Offensive Starters Returning: 5, (1 QB, 1 WR, 3 OL)
• 2014 Defense: 37.8 ppg, 199.7 ypg-rushing, 281.8 ypg-passing
• Defensive Starters Returning: 9, (3 DL, 2 LB, 4 DB)
• Specialists Returning: 3, (1 K, 1 P, 1 LS)
• BSC Preseason Team: None
Conclusion
I have the Hornets pegged at a somewhat successful (and optimistic) 6-5 (4-4 BSC) record. The 2015 schedule is tougher than last season; however there are still some teams on the schedule that the Hornets have no business losing to. If Coach Sears has this team ready every week, there is no reason this team shouldn’t finish in the middle of the BSC.
Depending on how the voids on OL are filled and how that unit can protect Kniffin impacts the range of wins the Hornets are capable of (between 3 and 7 IMO). The good news is the Hornets will be facing a lot of defenses that have question marks up front; this bodes well for a team that is replacing 3 starters on the OL and breaking in a new QB. Defenses in the BSC are very porous and generally speaking, aren’t very good. The Hornet offense should be able to get things going if this unit can get on the same page.
Defensively the Hornets will have some high powered offenses to try and slow down, but history tells us this unit will struggle once again. I would like to believe that the Hornet defense will improve from last season if Sankey stays healthy and the secondary continues to improve. We’ll just have to see how it plays out. My biggest concern will be the inability to get pressure on opposing QBs. The Hornets are young and inexperienced at DE so that will probably be an issue. The Hornet coaching staff might have to get creative to get pressure.
Not much about special teams has been discussed, but the Hornets have a quality kicking game returning. So long as these units don’t make major mistakes then we should expect consistent play in this area.
Go Hornets!!!
