JimMurphy15
Active member
http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2014/04/2014-15-preview-one-bid-conferences_5.html?m=1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It was not a strong year for the Big Sky Conference. Their regular season champion and best team won the conference tournament, but still was only awarded a 16 seed to the NCAA Tournament. The conference was shut out of the NIT and CBI, only to go 0-3 in the first round of the CIT. So it was a fairly miserable postseason performance all around.
It's not obvious that their best team will be better next season, but Weber State does have a nice young core to build around. They lose three starters to graduation, including Big Sky Player of the Year Davion Berry (19.2 ppg, 55.5 eFG%, 4.2 rpg, 3.9 apg). But the rest of their rotation was made up of freshmen and sophomores and includes some really nice talent. Perhaps the most interesting is 6'9" Joel Bolomboy (8.7 ppg, 11.0 rpg), who was top ten in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage as only a sophomore. They also return a good combo guard in Jeremy Senglin (10.9 ppg, 40.4 3P%, 2.2 apg), who was a true freshman this past season. They have a big recruiting class, highlighted by 6'8" Zach Braxton. With a need at point guard (unless Senglin handles the duties), another key recruit is 5'11" Hayden Hunter.
There was a three way tie for second place in the standings, though that's just another sign of how ridiculously even this league was after Weber State. The 2nd through 8th placed teams all finished between 10-8 and 12-6, and all had efficiency margins in conference play between +0.01 PPP and +0.04 PPP. So try separating that bunch, if you dare. I'll start with Montana, since they are probably the traditional power in the Big Sky aside from Weber State. Those two teams have made a combined eight appearances in the last five Big Sky title games (and Montana won the three head-to-head title match-ups). The Grizzlies have a good chance to be better next season. They lose star Kareem Jamar (18.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.0 apg), but return their next four highest minute earners, three of whom will be seniors next year. Their top returners are Jordan Gregory (13.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.0 apg) and Michael Weisner (8.1 ppg, 44.9 3P%, 63.5 eFG%, 2.6 rpg). A player who could grow into a really nice player is Mario Dunn (6.3 ppg, 43.3 3P%, and 2.7 rpg as a true freshman). As Jamar led the team in points, rebounds and assists, the team needs both size and point guard play. The size might come from 6'8" Martin Breunig, who played sparingly over a season and a half with Washington, and they also have a 6'10" recruit in Bryden Boehning. Mario Dunn could potentially take over point guard duties, as it's not clear that they have a better choice.
Of the other two teams tied for second place, North Dakota seems more likely to drop off. They weren't as good as their record to begin with (6-1 in games decided by five points or less against Big Sky opponents), and they lose six of their top seven minute earners to graduation. Northern Arizona is in much better shape, losing only one senior (Max Jacobsen - 12.3 ppg, 59.6 eFG%, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg). Their success was built around a rotating group of bigs that protected the rim, leading the Big Sky in defensive block rate and rebounding rate. None really stand out, honestly, though 6'10" Len Springs was very effective in limited minutes (3.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 15.0 minutes per game), and their top rebounder was Gaellan Bewernick (7.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg). The backcourt should be improved next season. Point guard Kris Yanku (9.7 ppg, 2.8 apg, 1.5 spg) was only a true freshman, and they add shooting KJ Bluford. Bluford played a few games at Iowa State this past season before transferring, but he should be eligible after the end of the fall semester.
Both Northern Colorado and Portland State suffer significant losses. Both lose a pair of starters, including arguably their most important player. Northern Colorado's biggest loss is leading scorer and rebounder Derrick Barden (14.1 ppg, 59.5 eFG%, 7.8 rpg), while Portland State's biggest loss is big man Kyle Richardson (10.0 ppg, 59.3 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 1.1 bpg). If there's a sleeper for next season, it has to be Eastern Washington. The Eagles won 7 of their final 11 games and actually finished with a better efficiency margin in conference play than 12-8 North Dakota, and they return absolutely everybody from their roster. Their leading scorer (Tyler Harvey - 21.8 ppg, 43.2 3P%, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) and their leading rebounder (Venky Jois - 13.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.6 bpg) were both just sophomores this past season. They also get back two key players that redshirted - 6'3" Sir Washington, who was their top 2013 recruit, and 7'1" Frederik Jorg, who still has three years of eligibility left. Their top 2014 recruit is 6'1" combo guard Will Ferris.
Weber State will certainly be a contender again next season. Montana is a team that could compete, but losing do-everything star Kareem Jamar makes them a question mark at best. Of the top contenders to Weber State this past season, Northern Arizona is the one that loses the least to graduation and appears in the best condition to challenge for first. But I think that the top contender to Weber State will actually be Eastern Washington. Weber State was the best team in the Big Sky this past season, but Eastern Washington was not really that far off. They lose significantly less and they get more back (if you include the players coming off redshirt). Eastern Washington has only made the NCAA Tournament once before, earning a 15 seed in 2004, but I think things are set up perfectly for them to make a run next season. Eastern Washington is my pick.
I see this roster making big steps next season! With Kyle Reid adding some athletic ability down low along side Jois, and Frederik Jorg coming back, that duo inside should be unstoppable in the Big Sky.
It was not a strong year for the Big Sky Conference. Their regular season champion and best team won the conference tournament, but still was only awarded a 16 seed to the NCAA Tournament. The conference was shut out of the NIT and CBI, only to go 0-3 in the first round of the CIT. So it was a fairly miserable postseason performance all around.
It's not obvious that their best team will be better next season, but Weber State does have a nice young core to build around. They lose three starters to graduation, including Big Sky Player of the Year Davion Berry (19.2 ppg, 55.5 eFG%, 4.2 rpg, 3.9 apg). But the rest of their rotation was made up of freshmen and sophomores and includes some really nice talent. Perhaps the most interesting is 6'9" Joel Bolomboy (8.7 ppg, 11.0 rpg), who was top ten in the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage as only a sophomore. They also return a good combo guard in Jeremy Senglin (10.9 ppg, 40.4 3P%, 2.2 apg), who was a true freshman this past season. They have a big recruiting class, highlighted by 6'8" Zach Braxton. With a need at point guard (unless Senglin handles the duties), another key recruit is 5'11" Hayden Hunter.
There was a three way tie for second place in the standings, though that's just another sign of how ridiculously even this league was after Weber State. The 2nd through 8th placed teams all finished between 10-8 and 12-6, and all had efficiency margins in conference play between +0.01 PPP and +0.04 PPP. So try separating that bunch, if you dare. I'll start with Montana, since they are probably the traditional power in the Big Sky aside from Weber State. Those two teams have made a combined eight appearances in the last five Big Sky title games (and Montana won the three head-to-head title match-ups). The Grizzlies have a good chance to be better next season. They lose star Kareem Jamar (18.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 4.0 apg), but return their next four highest minute earners, three of whom will be seniors next year. Their top returners are Jordan Gregory (13.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.0 apg) and Michael Weisner (8.1 ppg, 44.9 3P%, 63.5 eFG%, 2.6 rpg). A player who could grow into a really nice player is Mario Dunn (6.3 ppg, 43.3 3P%, and 2.7 rpg as a true freshman). As Jamar led the team in points, rebounds and assists, the team needs both size and point guard play. The size might come from 6'8" Martin Breunig, who played sparingly over a season and a half with Washington, and they also have a 6'10" recruit in Bryden Boehning. Mario Dunn could potentially take over point guard duties, as it's not clear that they have a better choice.
Of the other two teams tied for second place, North Dakota seems more likely to drop off. They weren't as good as their record to begin with (6-1 in games decided by five points or less against Big Sky opponents), and they lose six of their top seven minute earners to graduation. Northern Arizona is in much better shape, losing only one senior (Max Jacobsen - 12.3 ppg, 59.6 eFG%, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg). Their success was built around a rotating group of bigs that protected the rim, leading the Big Sky in defensive block rate and rebounding rate. None really stand out, honestly, though 6'10" Len Springs was very effective in limited minutes (3.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 15.0 minutes per game), and their top rebounder was Gaellan Bewernick (7.3 ppg, 5.9 rpg). The backcourt should be improved next season. Point guard Kris Yanku (9.7 ppg, 2.8 apg, 1.5 spg) was only a true freshman, and they add shooting KJ Bluford. Bluford played a few games at Iowa State this past season before transferring, but he should be eligible after the end of the fall semester.
Both Northern Colorado and Portland State suffer significant losses. Both lose a pair of starters, including arguably their most important player. Northern Colorado's biggest loss is leading scorer and rebounder Derrick Barden (14.1 ppg, 59.5 eFG%, 7.8 rpg), while Portland State's biggest loss is big man Kyle Richardson (10.0 ppg, 59.3 FG%, 6.3 rpg, 1.1 bpg). If there's a sleeper for next season, it has to be Eastern Washington. The Eagles won 7 of their final 11 games and actually finished with a better efficiency margin in conference play than 12-8 North Dakota, and they return absolutely everybody from their roster. Their leading scorer (Tyler Harvey - 21.8 ppg, 43.2 3P%, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) and their leading rebounder (Venky Jois - 13.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.6 bpg) were both just sophomores this past season. They also get back two key players that redshirted - 6'3" Sir Washington, who was their top 2013 recruit, and 7'1" Frederik Jorg, who still has three years of eligibility left. Their top 2014 recruit is 6'1" combo guard Will Ferris.
Weber State will certainly be a contender again next season. Montana is a team that could compete, but losing do-everything star Kareem Jamar makes them a question mark at best. Of the top contenders to Weber State this past season, Northern Arizona is the one that loses the least to graduation and appears in the best condition to challenge for first. But I think that the top contender to Weber State will actually be Eastern Washington. Weber State was the best team in the Big Sky this past season, but Eastern Washington was not really that far off. They lose significantly less and they get more back (if you include the players coming off redshirt). Eastern Washington has only made the NCAA Tournament once before, earning a 15 seed in 2004, but I think things are set up perfectly for them to make a run next season. Eastern Washington is my pick.
I see this roster making big steps next season! With Kyle Reid adding some athletic ability down low along side Jois, and Frederik Jorg coming back, that duo inside should be unstoppable in the Big Sky.
