Big Sky projection (guess)

[clawman1]

NAU 5-0 conf 7-1 overall
@ Id St -w
vs SUU- w
vs CP- L
end of season 7-1 conference, 9-2 overall with one of those wins vs Fort Lewis

Cal Poly 5-1 conf 7-1 overall
@ EWU- L (non conf game)
vs Id St - w
@ NAU- w
end of season 7-1 conf 9-2 overall with one of those wins vs San Diego

EWU 5-1 conf 6-2 overall
vs CP- w (non conf game)
Vs UCD- w
@ Portland St -w
end of season 7-1 conf, 9-2 overall 2 out of conference wins no cupcakes, 1 Pac 12 loss

MSU 4-1 conf 7-1 overall
@ Sac St- L
vs Portland St- w
@ Montana - L
end of season 5-3 conf, 8-3 overall one win vs Chadron St

Sac St 4-2 conf, 6-3 overall
vs MSU- w
@ UDC- w
end of season 6-2 conf, 8-3 overall beat Colorado and No Col out of conference


So, in my opinion the Eagles record will be the most impressive given their out of conference games do not include any cupcakes and non conference wins against an FBS team and ranked FCS team. It would seem reasonable to expect a seed and hopefully #2 or #3.

 

[marceagfan5]

That scenario is definitely a possibility. Looking at those games, the only upsets you have predicted are Sac over MSU and Poly over NAU and those are really 50/50 games anyways. That MSU/Sac game this weekend is huge...If MSU loses to Sac and the Griz, they would finish 5th in the conference and a 7-3 record (Chadron doesn't count towards a win). Would the committee take them in this case as the 5th team from the Big Sky?

I think the Big Sky winner, as long as they finish 9-2, should receive a pretty good seed, i'd guess 3 or 4, and if the 2nd place team in the Big Sky also finishes 9-2 they have a shot at the 5th seed.

The Big Sky has 5 teams that can make the playoffs this year, now that Sac has thrown a wrench in the mix, really glad we beat them. I highly doubt that we get 5 teams in the playoffs, we will most likely get 3, possibly 4. We really need to win these next 2 home games and get to 8 wins.

 

[clawman1]

This year, 8 is the new 7 as far as wins go. Under my scenario, the Eagles are the only team with 9 wins because the others have wins against dII teams

 

[LDopaPDX]

We'll see how good Montana State is this weekend, playing against a desperate Sac State team in Sacramento. It's the toughest road game they've played so far. If MSU goes 10-1, they'll be seeded above us even if we finish 9-2.

The truth is Eastern has a monster game this weekend and Cal Poly is a bad matchup for us on paper, as we've traditionally struggled with anyone committed to running the football. That said, we have done well against the rush since the Montana debacle. A big priority will be getting some of the guys that have been sitting out back onto the field... we really need all hands on deck right now for Cal Poly.

It's hard to look beyond that, but if we beat Cal Poly, I'd feel pretty good about the last two. If we lose, the whole thing goes back into the air as we'd be facing elimination from playoff contention with a loss and that can totally inspire a team, but other teams get unnerved and rattled.

You really can't overestimate the importance of the Cal Poly game to our future and the psyche of the team.

 

[LDopaPDX]

This year, 8 is the new 7 as far as wins go. Under my scenario, the Eagles are the only team with 9 wins because the others have wins against dII teams

While it's true that the committee will prefer a 9-2 team with 9 wins against DI opponents to a 9-2 team with 8, a 9-2 team with 8 DI wins is still going to be preferred to an 8-3 team with 8.

I don't see much chance of a Big Sky team finishing 7-4 getting in unless everything breaks in that favor between now and the end of the season.

 

[EWURanger]

I think Sac has a decent shot of beating MSU at home this Saturday. Even if MSU wins that one, I think Montana is still capable of beating the Cats. Montana is after all playing for a winni g season at this point.

 

[SloStang]

This year, 8 is the new 7 as far as wins go. Under my scenario, the Eagles are the only team with 9 wins because the others have wins against dII teams

All of Cal Poly wins are DI wins. Under your scenario Cal Poly would have 9 DI wins.

 

[kalm]

We'll see how good Montana State is this weekend, playing against a desperate Sac State team in Sacramento. It's the toughest road game they've played so far. If MSU goes 10-1, they'll be seeded above us even if we finish 9-2.

The truth is Eastern has a monster game this weekend and Cal Poly is a bad matchup for us on paper, as we've traditionally struggled with anyone committed to running the football. That said, we have done well against the rush since the Montana debacle. A big priority will be getting some of the guys that have been sitting out back onto the field... we really need all hands on deck right now for Cal Poly.

It's hard to look beyond that, but if we beat Cal Poly, I'd feel pretty good about the last two. If we lose, the whole thing goes back into the air as we'd be facing elimination from playoff contention with a loss and that can totally inspire a team, but other teams get unnerved and rattled.

You really can't overestimate the importance of the Cal Poly game to our future and the psyche of the team.

I've argued this already on other boards, but I don't think the committee would seat the cats ahead of us. We have a much stronger SOS with two FBS games to their none, and their DII game to our none. The SFA win - their one decent OOC matchup is looking less and less impressive. The head to head also helps - especially considering it was on the road.

Imagine placing a team higher than it's own conference champ, with the same amount of DI wins, and who they also lost to at home.

 

[clawman1]

This year, 8 is the new 7 as far as wins go. Under my scenario, the Eagles are the only team with 9 wins because the others have wins against dII teams

All of Cal Poly wins are DI wins. Under your scenario Cal Poly would have 9 DI wins.

San Diego is in a conference that technically plays at the FCS level but is a non scholly conference. I don't know why that is any different than DII, seems like a gymic so they can play D1 basketball. Drake, one of MSU's wins is also in the Pioneer conference. While it is a D1 win I doubt it is viewed as a quality win.

 

[SloStang]

This year, 8 is the new 7 as far as wins go. Under my scenario, the Eagles are the only team with 9 wins because the others have wins against dII teams

All of Cal Poly wins are DI wins. Under your scenario Cal Poly would have 9 DI wins.

San Diego is in a conference that technically plays at the FCS level but is a non scholly conference. I don't know why that is any different than DII, seems like a gymic so they can play D1 basketball. Drake, one of MSU's wins is also in the Pioneer conference. While it is a D1 win I doubt it is viewed as a quality win.

It will not count as a quality win, but it will count as a DI win.

 

[marceagfan5]

I took another look through things, we still have a shot at a pretty good seed.

If we win out, and win the Big Sky auto bid, then I think we receive the #3 seed, possibly #2 if someone ahead of us drops one.

If we win out and don't win the Big Sky auto bid, I think we have a shot at a 4 or 5 seed.

If we drop one of the last 3, no chance at a seed, maybe no chance at a home game.

I don't see any other scenarios taking place, we won't lose more than 1 and shouldn't lose any.

 

[MLEagle]

If MSU wins out they will be the seeded ahead of us. If NAU wins out they will be seeded ahead of us.

Best case scenario for us is us winning out and CP beating NAU with a MSU loss to either Sac St or UM. This scenario gives us the best strength of schedule and gives us the auto bid. But, even in this case we are most likely #4 behind a combination of NDSU, SHSU, Georgia Southern and/or CAA champ.

Remember, we were ranked #1 in 2010 and still got the 5 seed.

 

[kalm]

If MSU wins out they will be the seeded ahead of us. If NAU wins out they will be seeded ahead of us.

Best case scenario for us is us winning out and CP beating NAU with a MSU loss to either Sac St or UM. This scenario gives us the best strength of schedule and gives us the auto bid. But, even in this case we are most likely #4 behind a combination of NDSU, SHSU, Georgia Southern and/or CAA champ.

Remember, we were ranked #1 in 2010 and still got the 5 seed.

I've asked the question before, but why would the committee MSU ahead of their own conference champ, who they lost to at home, who has a clearly superior strength of schedule, and the same amount of DI wins. You can't tell me the extra DI loss trumps the other 4.

 

[marceagfan5]

If MSU wins out they will be the seeded ahead of us. If NAU wins out they will be seeded ahead of us.

Best case scenario for us is us winning out and CP beating NAU with a MSU loss to either Sac St or UM. This scenario gives us the best strength of schedule and gives us the auto bid. But, even in this case we are most likely #4 behind a combination of NDSU, SHSU, Georgia Southern and/or CAA champ.

Remember, we were ranked #1 in 2010 and still got the 5 seed.

Remember, we only have 1 FCS loss. Georgia Southern still plays at Georgia and Sam Houston at Texas A&M, they will both lose and drop a spot or 2 in the polls like we did with an FBS loss. Plus Georgia Southern plays app state this weekend. NDSU still has to play two really good MVC teams and ODU plays JMU so ya never know. We just need to win our games...

Our seeding in 2010 wasn't that bad because we were ranked #1, but didn't win the conference. We had the same record as MSU and they beat us head to head so they had to be seeded higher than us, a lot of weight is put on the conference winners. I think the Big Sky will have 2 seeded teams this year. The champ will be in the 3 or 4 range, with an outside shot at a 2 seed. Another team will be the 4 or 5 seed. I think if MSU finish's 10-1 and we finish 9-2, we may get the nod for a higher seed due to our head to head win in Bozeman and the fact we both have 1 FCS loss and 9 FCS wins.