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Bold Prediction: Sac Will Make the Playoffs...

Kadeezy

Kadeezy

Active member
IF!!! They win out...

7 DI wins is NOT a requirement to make the FCS playoffs. As a general rule of thumb, it holds true... BUT, a 7-4 team with it's 3 FCS losses by a combined 10 points (in which SAC held a 4th quarter lead in each) makes a strong case to get one of the 20 spots. I think if we win out convincingly we can find ourselves in the 18-22 range in the national polls and have a 50/50 shot of getting a chance to travel east for some postseason football...

Big Sky Bids:

MSU (Auto)
UM (At-Large)
EWU (At-Large)
SAC (At-Large)

WEB (OUT)
NAU (OUT)
 
Nah, it will be given to a Robert Morris or Bethune Cookman who have a $400K budget and split 12 schollies among the team. Or SUU as they are the defacto champs of the now defunct Great Worst.

Gotta win out, nothing else matters except for W's.
 
Correction - There will be one more year for the grand-daddy of all FCS conferences, the Great West! or as it will be known next year the Great Big Western Sky!

If SUU beats EWU at the end, it might be hard to ignore them. They would have wins over Poly and EWU, 3-point loss to NAU, 2 FBS losses, and one not-so-great loss to Texas State.

You need to Weber to finish strong, but lose to Texas Tech, and NAU to finish strong. If Sac finishes 7-4, 3rd place in the BigSky, they have a chance. If EWU, Montana and Montana State finish in front, they will go...and....someone like Poly or SUU will sneak in.

You also need some of the Southland and Eastern teams to continue to stumble, so that the committee will have to go to teams with 7 D1 wins.
 
EWU will get the auto bid. Of the 3 top teams, they are playing the best right now and their last BSC game is at home against ISU in the final game of the regular season. They also have the luxury of a bye this week. They also host SUU before the ISU game. That outcome won’t affect the BSC race.

MSU has tough games against WSU and then at UM.
UM after a bye this week, hosts a pathetic UND team then hosts MSU.
WSU has to go to MSU, NAU and finishes with a FBS game at TX Tech.
NAU is @ UNC, hosts WSU, and hosts PSU.
And finally we finish the BSC by hosting PSU and travelling to ISU before the Causeway.

If WSU wins their final BSC games, they are in as they will have 7 D-1 wins.
EWU is pretty much a lock at this point imo.
UM needs to win out or they will only have 6 D-1 wins. If a school with only 6 D-1 wins is invited, I guarantee it will be UM as they NCAA makes truckloads of cash when Missoula hosts a playoff game.
NAU needs to win out to have 7 D-1 wins.
We will only have 6 D-1 wins if we win out. See my UM explanation above as to why we won’t get an invite if the selection committee does consider 6 D-1 win teams.
SUU will only have 6 D-1 wins if they beat EWU. They are out, see above.

Still a lot to be settled, but there is little to no chance SUU and/or Sac State gets an invite. I do think 4 BSC teams will get invites, 3 will obviously be at-large bids.
 
MSU is at UM, not the other way around.

Here's how I see it:

WSU loses to MSU and Texas Tech and will beat NAU.
NAU will beat UNC and PSU and lose to WSU.
UM will beat UND and lose to MSU.
MSU will WSU and UM.
EWU will beat ISU and SUU.
SAC will beat PSU, ISU and ucd.

WSU will finish 6-5 overall, 5-3 in the Big Sky.
NAU will finish 6-5 overall, 4-4 in the Big Sky.
UM will finish 7-4 overall, 5-3 in the Big Sky.
MSU will finish 9-2 overall, 7-1 in the Big Sky, winning the AQ by their win over EWU.
EWU will finish 9-2 overall, 7-1 in the Big Sky.
SAC will finish 7-4 overall, 5-3 in the Big Sky.

MSU 9-2, 7-1
EWU 9-2, 7-1
UM 7-4, 5-3
SAC 7-4, 5-3
WSU 6-5, 5-3
NAU 6-5, 4-4

MSU, EWU, UM, and SAC will all receive bids.
 
Nice catch, I edited my post.

I like your run down. Sac would only get a bid if there is no one else with 7 wins available. And if they do consider a 6 win team, aside from UM, it will go to an east coast school (specifically the 5th or 6th ranked CAA team :roll: ).
 
you guys will probably also need to have Poly lose to either South Dakota (up there) or Davis (home). Else, they finish 8-3 (7 D1 wins), with wins over Montana and (the over-rated) McNeese State. I'd be really surprised to see 5 western teams, although I believe they took 4 (3 BigSky and Poly) in 2008.

also, if NAU has a late-season collapse at WSU and PSU, that win won't have the impact it originally. but, the win over WSU looks much better than it did a few weeks ago.
 
Normally, I'd say yeah 7-4 has no shot with 6 D1 wins... But with the expansion from 16-20 teams in the playoffs this year, I think we'll be seeing plenty of "firsts"!
 
One more thing... Are the criteria for selection posted anywhere? Do they use any ranking systems (i.e. Sagarin), take into consideration SOS, margin of victory (loss)?
 
I'm pulling for the Hornets or Wildcats to sneak in the back door to the playoffs. Neat to see someone new make it. Best of luck, Sac State.
 
I hate to say it folks, but we need UC Dungpile to beat Cal Poly this week to have any chance at an at-large...
 
4 BSC teams will not get playoff bids. Everyone needs to drop the idea of the Hornets getting a bid, it just will not happen with only 6 D-1 wins. If anything, this is a perfect reason why burning a game on a D-II team should be eliminated from our scheduling philosophy. We could very well find ourselves in this same situation next year if the folks who make the schedule (my guess is it’s a collaboration between Sperbeck and Wanless) fvck up and schedule a non-D-1 opponent.

CP will need to win, and if UM wins out, they will both be sitting with 7 D-1 wins. UM will get selected over CP (regardless of the head to head result), but it is possible both will get a nod. A 6 D-1 win western team WILL NOT get a playoff bid. If SUU beats EWU, they will have 6 D-1 wins and they would be the most impressive team between CP, Sac, and CP. A lot of different scenarios can play out but I don’t think any of them will include a 6 D-1 win team getting a bid. If it does happen, it will be UM as they generate lots of money for the NCAA when they host playoff games.
 
you don't think the committee would take possible revenues into consideration, SD? :o

the NCAA chose money over doing the right thing? i'm shocked!
 
SDHornet said:
4 BSC teams will not get playoff bids. Everyone needs to drop the idea of the Hornets getting a bid, it just will not happen with only 6 D-1 wins. If anything, this is a perfect reason why burning a game on a D-II team should be eliminated from our scheduling philosophy. We could very well find ourselves in this same situation next year if the folks who make the schedule (my guess is it’s a collaboration between Sperbeck and Wanless) fvck up and schedule a non-D-1 opponent.

CP will need to win, and if UM wins out, they will both be sitting with 7 D-1 wins. UM will get selected over CP (regardless of the head to head result), but it is possible both will get a nod. A 6 D-1 win western team WILL NOT get a playoff bid. If SUU beats EWU, they will have 6 D-1 wins and they would be the most impressive team between CP, Sac, and CP. A lot of different scenarios can play out but I don’t think any of them will include a 6 D-1 win team getting a bid. If it does happen, it will be UM as they generate lots of money for the NCAA when they host playoff games.
Click to expand...


If...

SUU loses to EWU (6-5, 5 DI wins)

CPU loses to UCD (7-4, 6 DI wins)

SAC rolls ISU, UCD (7-4, 6 DI wins)

I honestly think that SAC would get the nod over Cal Poly. Sure they beat Montana by two at home, but our close losses, coupled with big wins and momentum from a 5-3 record in a power conference make the difference. I know I'm being optomistic, but I'm hoding out hope that the expansion to 20 teams for 16 will hold at least ONE slot for an at-large from the west to make some noise...
 
The expanded field will allow for 2/3 west teams to make noise. EWU/MSU (whoever isn’t the auto-bid), UM (assuming they win out), and possibly even CP if they win out and are still selected.

The problem with your scenario is if UM doesn’t win out but beats UND (which I think we can all agree is a lock) and loses to MSU, they have 6 D-1 wins. Seeing as UM outdraws all three of those schools combined and can sell tickets for at least $40 a piece, they will easily get the nod over any other 6 D-1 win team. It’s the golden rule Kadeezy; he who has the gold, makes the rules. In this case (schools with 6 D-1 wins) it would be UM.

As of now, the only way we get a bid is if all of the following happen:
1) We win out
2) CP loses to “the farm extension”
3) UM loses to both UND and MSU
4) Lastly and most importantly, a wealthy Sac State alum pays off the playoff selection committee

I’d love to be wrong but we know that isn’t going to happen. :P
 
EWU, MSU, UM or CP will fillout the western selection.

There will be teams like Robert Morris, SE Mizzou St. and a few CAA teams with similar Sac records but will get chosen b/c of bias.

This happened to us many time while in D2, always overlooked. There is no way to beat it except go undefeated then they have to notice.

I bet we get so fed up with the selection process of FCS that we go FBS just to have a shot at the Roto Rooter Bowl. :lol:

Of course drop to ISU or UCFE and all bets are off.
 
Yeah, assuming CP loses and we win out, I think it's a 50/50...

A griz poster thinks we're getting robbed in the polls...

Kadeezy wrote:
I love how Sac State has been rolling and they don't pick up any ground in the polls. We have 3 FCS losses to top 13 teams by a COMBINED 10 points (We gave up a lead in the 4th quarter of each game) this year... They'll be 7-4 with a Top 10 Sagarin FCS Rating and probably on the outside looking in of the polls and the playoffs, sad...

I feel your pain. NOT sarcasm -- I really do.

How ‘bout this -- which will just add to your frustration.

Back East in the CCA, we have the Richmond “Archnids” -- with the same record (5-4) as you guys. Also like you guys, their first lost was to an FBS team. Your point spread in losing was greater, but unlike your opponent (Stanford, currently ranked #6), theirs was a total wimp (Virginia: currently unranked, with a 4-5 record).

As you pointed out, your 3 FCS losses were by a total of 10 points -- and one of those was in OT. Richmond lost by 21, 17 (a shutout), and 21 … 59 points, if my math works.

Seems like a no-brainer, right?

WRONG. Richmond is ranked #21 in the latest poll, while you guys got just 46 votes in the last “others receiving votes” category.

The CAA is a good conference -- no arguing with that. But they're not that much better than the Big Sky (see Sagarin and other evaluations). Yet there are people who seriously argue that there is no CAA/East Coast bias in the polls ...
 
Green Cookie Monster said:
Of course drop to ISU or UCFE and all bets are off.
Click to expand...
This should be the only teams focus right now. With two games to go, both of which will be on the road, the players and coaches should be focused on nothing else other than ISU right now.
 
Kadeezy said:
Yeah, assuming CP loses and we win out, I think it's a 50/50...

A griz poster thinks we're getting robbed in the polls...
Click to expand...
That sounds too logical and straightforward to be coming from someone from egriz. :lol:
 
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