BSC Championship & FCS Playoffs?

[up for the challenge]

As of today, which team(s) below have the best chance to win the BSC Championship and which team(s) have the best chance of going to the FCS playoffs? I have to assume that Cal Poly 5-2 and Montana 4-2 are done for the season unless EWU, ISU, MSU, and NAU lose their remaining games and Cal Poly and Montana win out.

I maybe wrong but It would appear that NAU has the best chance to win or share the Big Sky Championship and to make the FCS playoffs based on their two remaining games and their win against EWU.

Big Sky Record:

Eastern Washington 6-1 has only one more game with Portland State.
Idaho State 5-1 has two games with Montana State and Weber State
Montana State 5-1 has two games with ISU and Montana
Northern Arizona 5-1 has North Dakota and Southern Utah

Go Bengals!

 

[Skippy]

As of today, which team(s) below have the best chance to win the BSC Championship and which team(s) have the best chance of going to the FCS playoffs? I have to assume that Cal Poly 5-2 and Montana 4-2 are done for the season unless EWU, ISU, MSU, and NAU lose their remaining games and Cal Poly and Montana win out.

I maybe wrong but It would appear that NAU has the best chance to win or share the Big Sky Championship and to make the FCS playoffs based on their two remaining games and their win against EWU.

Big Sky Record:

Eastern Washington 6-1 has only one more game with Portland State.
Idaho State 5-1 has two games with Montana State and Weber State
Montana State 5-1 has two games with ISU and Montana
Northern Arizona 5-1 has North Dakota and Southern Utah

Go Bengals!

NAU is clearly in the driver seat -- if they win out, they get the auto bid, and they are playing two of the worst teams in the conference. Eastern will be favored over PSU, but even if they lose, they will likely also get a playoff bid. ISU must win out to get into the playoffs. MSU might be able to sustain a loss in their last two games against either ISU or Montana. I think Cal Poly and Montana are both still viable if they win out.

 

[PBP]

Jerry Miller absolutely thinks Montana is still in the mix because of their reputation.

I think they are done but we'll find out soon enough.

PBP

 

[bengalguy]

Here’s what Craig Haley, The FCS Executive Director, thinks in his column on The Sports Network.

PLAYOFF FIELD
Looking at where teams may stand in a projected playoff bracket on Nov. 23, and not based on current records or conference standings:
Eastern Kentucky/Montana winner at No. 1 seed North Dakota State
Jacksonville/Richmond winner at No. 8 seed Chattanooga
Cal Poly/Southeastern Louisiana winner at No. 5 seed Eastern Washington
Sam Houston State/Northern Iowa winner at No. 4 seed Illinois State
Bethune-Cookman/Liberty winner at No. 3 seed Coastal Carolina
Fordham/South Carolina State winner at No. 6 seed Jacksonville State
Northern Arizona/South Dakota State winner at No. 7 seed Villanova
Bryant/Youngstown State winner at No. 2 seed New Hampshire
On the at-large bubble: Idaho State, Indiana State, James Madison, Montana State, North Carolina A&T, Stephen F. Austin

I’ve got to go with Jerry on this one.

 

[bengalguy]

Here's the link.

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4736726" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The article was written after the games on Saturday.

 

[Skippy]

The Bengals are knocking on the door of the Top 25, but not quite there. They are 27th in the latest sports network poll:

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2%2Fmisc%2Ftsn-div-1aa-poll.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

And as you can see, Montana is still ranked 16th in this latest poll, which keeps them viable for a playoff berth if they win out.

 

[PBP]

Given what Haley wrote if Montana would have to go to N.D. State that means they are to use basketball terms, "the last one in..."

That's disappointing given that they don't have any quality wins to this point although they have a chance to get one if they beat Montana State.

Personally, I think if NAU and Eastern win out they are in, lock solid.

I think the winner of ISU / Montana State is in (barring either losing the final regular season game)

And I think Cal Poly is in, if they don't lose anymore, because they beat Montana head to head.

I can't see the Big Sky getting more than four teams unless something very strange happens the final few weeks around the country in the FCS.

So in my scenario that means Montana and someone else (loser of MSU / ISU) is out.

PBP

 

[Skippy]

I can see the Big Sky getting as many as four teams in, and as few as two, depending on how things play out in these final weeks. I think ISU gets in only if they win out -- and then it's not guaranteed. (I still have that feeling in my gut from when they were in a three-way tie for the championship in 2002 -- and didn't get in. Of course, it was a smaller field then). But all the Bengals can control is winning these last two games, and if they do, I like their chances.

 

[up for the challenge]

Like Skippy mentioned, NAU is in the driver seat to win the BSC Championship. ISU has to win out to have a chance at making the playoffs.

Here is my question? If Montana wins out will they have an advantage over ISU if the Bengals win out due to current FCS ranking and stadium size? If so, ISU maybe out unless the FCS selects 4 teams from the Big Sky.

 

[Sniper]

Here is my question? If Montana wins out will they have an advantage over ISU if the Bengals win out due to current FCS ranking and stadium size? If so, ISU maybe out unless the FCS selects 4 teams from the Big Sky.

ISU is in if they win out. Going into Bozeman and knocking off a top 15 team after knocking off a ranked Cal Poly would be hard for a selection committee to ignore.
Who has Montana beat on the road, or even at home? Sac St (2-4 conf) is their best win of the season.

 

[up for the challenge]

It is too close to call right now until the season ends. I agree with all of you, if the Bengals win out they deserve to be in the playoffs.

 

[pocatato]

Five and one is lots of fun. Six and one we still need one. Seven and one we've got it done.

 

[spotter]

Looking at Sagarin ratings, one can derive their ratings for the Big Sky as follows:
EW-------13th
ISU------- 23rd
MT--------27th
MtSt------30th
CP---------31st

Too bad the selection committee doesn't go by their rankings.

 

[mvem]

(Here's something I previously posted on AGS & championshipsubdivision)


Reasons for Optimism & Skepticism

I'm not including EWU in this analysis because they're a lock to get in. The PSU game should only be the difference between seed & no seed.


Cal Poly

Optimism - Playing really well now.

• • - Good wins over Montana, MSU, and a blowout of Sac.
    - No reason they shouldn't win out with Davis & San Diego left.

Skepticism - Lousy early-season performances hurt their resume.

• • - Won't tie for first in the standings.

Idaho St.

Optimism - Won 5 in a row (4 against DI)

• • - Beat CP and hammered Sac.
    - No bad losses.
    - In for sure if they win out.

Skepticism - Didn't play an FCS team out of conference.

• • - Have to play MSU in Bozeman.
    - Probably can't afford to lose with 2 non-D1 wins (one of which ended up close).
    - Have only beaten Weber 2 times in the last 29 meetings.

NAU

Optimism - Will get the auto-bid if they win out.

• • - 2 good wins over EWU & Cal Poly.
    - Won 4 in a row.
    - Easy remaining schedule.

Skepticism - 2 bad losses to SoDak & NoCo.

• • - Multiple close calls against other weak teams.
    - Wins over EWU & Cal Poly came when those opponents weren't at 100%
    - Relatively weak 8-4 resume means it's likely auto-bid or bust.

Montana

Optimism - No bad losses and tough road schedule.

• • - Could end up with 2 wins over winning teams (MSU & Sac).
    - Get MSU at home, where they've played noticeably better.
    - Lone remaining road opponent is weak.

Skepticism - MSU could be their only good win, and they could end up 7-5.

• • - Home team has lost the last 5 Griz/Cat affairs.
    - Won't tie for first in the standings.
    - Lost to Cal Poly, who should end up 8-4.

Montana St.

Optimism - In for sure if they win out.

• • - Beat Montana in Missoula the last 2 tries.
    - No bad losses.
    - Solid chance of getting in even if they split the final 2.

Skepticism - Toughest remaining schedule (vs. ISU, @ UM).

• • - No good wins (though Sac & UCA could end up being decent ones).
    - Lost to Cal Poly, which could be an issue if the Bobcats split.
    - Haven't yet looked good in November.