I admit it, I am looking ahead...

[Waldo2]

Coach Rahe will not do this and won't allow the players to do this, but I am a fan and can do what I want so I am going to look ahead and speculate a little.

Lets be honest, the next two games for Weber (UTA and UNC) won't matter in the grand scheme of things. If Weber wins out, then that is fun for fans and keeps momentum going. But, it won't matter in terms of determining who hosts the conference tournament. It probably won't make any difference in NCAA seeding (Big Sky winner will get a 15 seed).

The games for Montana likewise won't matter in the grand scheme of things unless UM loses to both UNA and MSU. I don't see them losing both of those games at home. They have to win at least one of those games to stay alive in the conference championship hunt. If UM wins out against UNA, MSU, and UH, then it is fun for them. But it won' matter in terms of determining who hosts the conference tournament or NCAA seeding, etc... They just have to win 1 more conference game (at home) against two of the worst teams in the conference.

It looks like it will come down to one game for the regular season conference championship and the right to host the tournament.
How does this impact preparation and planning? Do you rest some players? Do you start game prep for Montana now? Would it be detrimental to look ahead? :blah: :blah: :blah:

 

[WSUfan1]

Waldo, how long have you followed WSU basketball or the BIg Sky?/ Every game does matter!! I can guarantee you that the coaches are not over looking any teams. Every game counts. Mark my words, if either WSU or Montana wins out from Saturday forward, they will get a 14 seed at worst. Even in Rahes first year, we got a 15 seed. We had some pretty bad losses and still managed a 15 seed. However, this year our RPI is at 87, and if we win out, I don't see why it won't be in the 70s. Having said that, even year the one bid leagues send a sub .500 team and a few other teams that win their conference tourney. All that does is help WSU to get a higher seed. I would love nothing more than for both WSU and Montana to pay Feb. 28 both with one conf. loss.

 

[n.ogdencat]

I'm pretty excited to see two teams play for all the marbles on Feb 28. It would make it that much more special if both teams had 14-1 records.

Waldo, you might be right though, I really don't see the Sky rep in the NCAA's getting a great seed. I think there is a strong chance that the rep will be a 14 or maybe even a 13, but in all likelihood, its gonna be a 15. Catcat wants us in a play-in game...huh??

 

[weberwildcat]

I'm pretty excited to see two teams play for all the marbles on Feb 28. It would make it that much more special if both teams had 14-1 records.

Waldo, you might be right though, I really don't see the Sky rep in the NCAA's getting a great seed. I think there is a strong chance that the rep will be a 14 or maybe even a 13, but in all likelihood, its gonna be a 15. Catcat wants us in a play-in game...huh??

YES....

if we cant get better than a 14 give me a 1st rd game. there is no longer a play in game. the first round is 4 games. i would rather get an ncaa tourney win then take on a 1 seed than be a 14 or 15 seed. :yikes:

weber has never been a 16, a 15 once, a 14 twice.

of course we might want to win the big sky tourney first but i always look ahead and count my kangaroos before the hatch.

 

[WSUProf]

Actually, if UM loses to either UNA or MSU and WSU beats UNC then Weber will clinch the 1 seed. Right? After head-to-head, isn't record against BIg Sky opponents in descending order the next tie breaker? And Weber's loss to ISU would give them the edge over a Montana loss to either Montana St or Northern Arizona (provided ISU stays ahead of Montanta St).
So a Weber win against UNC could mean a lot. Of course, if Montana wins out then the UNC is meaningless conference tourney-wise for Weber.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Actually, if UM loses to either UNA or MSU and WSU beats UNC then Weber will clinch the 1 seed. Right? After head-to-head, isn't record against BIg Sky opponents in descending order the next tie breaker? And Weber's loss to ISU would give them the edge over a Montana loss to either Montana St or Northern Arizona (provided ISU stays ahead of Montanta St).
So a Weber win against UNC could mean a lot. Of course, if Montana wins out then the UNC is meaningless conference tourney-wise for Weber.

Weber's loss to ISU gives UM the tiebreaker edge, since UM swept ISU. The only game that really matters anymore (assuming Montana doesn't lose to both NAU and MSU, which definitely won't happen) is that last game in Missoula.

 

[talhadfoursteals]

Weber just needs to continue winning. Take one game at a time!!

 

[WSUProf]

That's right, SWebercat. My bad.

 

[oldrunner]

I totally agree that the UM game is now the only one that matters, as far as hosting and having a better chance of getting our leagues auto bid. However, all games are a chance to adjust and get better. Satuday's game is a good chance for our starters to play freely and for our bench to get some more experience. I don't think winning or losing means much in this one, so try some new things, use it like a practice, play everyone, run, gun, and have a good time doing all of it. It's senior night with no pressure. Lets use it as a fun chance to get better, top to bottom. The NCU game is a league game and should be treated as such. However, we just need to get through it with no more injuries. A win is nice, but that is all. Use that game as preparation for Montana. Maybe we can mail them UMs play book. :lol: :lol:

 

[Waldo2]

I agree that Weber needs to play their best the next two games - no need to coast and give in. It is best to keep up the intensity and the momentum. They can get better and tighten up a few things.

It would also be great to let Dame rest the foot a little, let Bull get more minutes and shots to get fully back after his elbow injury, etc.
I hope Weber wins all their games - but the game on Feb 28th is THE game.

 

[Dubs1]

Actually, if UM loses to either UNA or MSU and WSU beats UNC then Weber will clinch the 1 seed. Right? After head-to-head, isn't record against BIg Sky opponents in descending order the next tie breaker? And Weber's loss to ISU would give them the edge over a Montana loss to either Montana St or Northern Arizona (provided ISU stays ahead of Montanta St).
So a Weber win against UNC could mean a lot. Of course, if Montana wins out then the UNC is meaningless conference tourney-wise for Weber.

Weber's loss to ISU gives UM the tiebreaker edge, since UM swept ISU. The only game that really matters anymore (assuming Montana doesn't lose to both NAU and MSU, which definitely won't happen) is that last game in Missoula.

I think what he is saying is a loss by Montana will give Weber 1st place because they will have lost to a lesser team than we did in conference. If that's the case then every game still does matter for the conference tourney. I know that it's very unlikely that Montana loses one of the final two games, but you can't rule it out completley. Also, the "first round" four games isn't where I would hope Weber to land. Nobody even pays attention to the 16 vs 16 match-up and if we were to lose that game, then it's almost as if we didn't even make the tourney. Also, no 16 seed has ever beat a no 1 seed. Though we wouldn't beat a 2 or a 3 seed, our odds are much better than beating a no 1 seed. I think if we win out we will make it up to a 14 seed, possibly a 13 seed. We still have 3 quality games left supposing it is us and Montana in the BSC tourney final.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Actually, if UM loses to either UNA or MSU and WSU beats UNC then Weber will clinch the 1 seed. Right? After head-to-head, isn't record against BIg Sky opponents in descending order the next tie breaker? And Weber's loss to ISU would give them the edge over a Montana loss to either Montana St or Northern Arizona (provided ISU stays ahead of Montanta St).
So a Weber win against UNC could mean a lot. Of course, if Montana wins out then the UNC is meaningless conference tourney-wise for Weber.

Weber's loss to ISU gives UM the tiebreaker edge, since UM swept ISU. The only game that really matters anymore (assuming Montana doesn't lose to both NAU and MSU, which definitely won't happen) is that last game in Missoula.

I think what he is saying is a loss by Montana will give Weber 1st place because they will have lost to a lesser team than we did in conference. If that's the case then every game still does matter for the conference tourney. I know that it's very unlikely that Montana loses one of the final two games, but you can't rule it out completley. Also, the "first round" four games isn't where I would hope Weber to land. Nobody even pays attention to the 16 vs 16 match-up and if we were to lose that game, then it's almost as if we didn't even make the tourney. Also, no 16 seed has ever beat a no 1 seed. Though we wouldn't beat a 2 or a 3 seed, our odds are much better than beating a no 1 seed. I think if we win out we will make it up to a 14 seed, possibly a 13 seed. We still have 3 quality games left supposing it is us and Montana in the BSC tourney final.

The tiebreaker will be determined by head to head vs conf opponents, starting at the top of the standing and moving down UNTIL the tie is broken. Since ISU will most likely finish above MSU, and certainly above NAU, head to head vs ISU will be the tie breaker. Any head to head after that won't matter, the tie breaker will have been determined there. The only thing these other games might help with is NCAA seeding. I'm not saying these other games aren't important, but as far as the right to host the conference tournament, the game vs UM is about all that matters anymore (assuming UM doesn't lose to both NAU and MSU at home).

 

[weberwildcat]

Actually, if UM loses to either UNA or MSU and WSU beats UNC then Weber will clinch the 1 seed. Right? After head-to-head, isn't record against BIg Sky opponents in descending order the next tie breaker? And Weber's loss to ISU would give them the edge over a Montana loss to either Montana St or Northern Arizona (provided ISU stays ahead of Montanta St).
So a Weber win against UNC could mean a lot. Of course, if Montana wins out then the UNC is meaningless conference tourney-wise for Weber.

Weber's loss to ISU gives UM the tiebreaker edge, since UM swept ISU. The only game that really matters anymore (assuming Montana doesn't lose to both NAU and MSU, which definitely won't happen) is that last game in Missoula.

I think what he is saying is a loss by Montana will give Weber 1st place because they will have lost to a lesser team than we did in conference. If that's the case then every game still does matter for the conference tourney. I know that it's very unlikely that Montana loses one of the final two games, but you can't rule it out completley. Also, the "first round" four games isn't where I would hope Weber to land. Nobody even pays attention to the 16 vs 16 match-up and if we were to lose that game, then it's almost as if we didn't even make the tourney. Also, no 16 seed has ever beat a no 1 seed. Though we wouldn't beat a 2 or a 3 seed, our odds are much better than beating a no 1 seed. I think if we win out we will make it up to a 14 seed, possibly a 13 seed. We still have 3 quality games left supposing it is us and Montana in the BSC tourney final.

our last 4 appearances:

15 seed, lost to 2 seed
12 seed, lost to 5 seed
14 seed, beat 3 seed
14 seed, beat 3 seed

my reasons for actually wanting a 16 seed with the field now being 68 is because i am under the impression would win the new first round game. with the field of 65 i didnt ever want to be a 16. the goal of any weber fan has always (at least in the last 20 yrs) to be a 12 seed. 12's always win and its as high as we can realistically ever expect.

 

[Dubs1]

Agreed I'm really holding out hope that winning at home vs a top 110 school (UTA) and @ Montana and home vs Montana (tourney time) both games top 110 RPI games, that we can jump up to a 13, at the very least should get us a 14 seed.

 

[weberwildcat]

its kinda hard to guess with so many other factors but i also think a 13.

 

[ClarkWGrizwald]

I think what he is saying is a loss by Montana will give Weber 1st place because they will have lost to a lesser team than we did in conference.

While true, you've got it backwards. They start at the TOP of the conference and work down, looking for the first tie-breaker. Since Weber lost to ISU and Montana swept them, Montana would hold the tie-break, even if they should lose to last-place NAU (which ain't happenin').


It's going to come down to the final game for the marbles, but in reality either team could lose one more game other than the final one, and it won't change anything. The winner of the final game is still the regular season champ.

Incidentally, had Montana not inexplicably lost a game late in the season last year to Eastern, the tie break would have come down to RPI and Montana would have hosted the tournament over UNC because UM and UNC had beaten exactly the same teams all the way down the schedule. Pretty rare occurence.

 

[jon]

Right now everywhere is projecting a 15 seed for the Big Sky winner... haven't really seen anyone divert from that at all.

Best case scenario for the Wildcats is for both teams to win until Feb 28, because that would get both RPIs as high as possible. Then obviously, WSU beat MT both at the end of the regular season, and then meet again and beat them in the conference title game. If all of that happens, I think 14 is possible. It seems like 13 would be unlikely at this point, because WSU is low on impressive wins.

 

[Dubs1]

Right now everywhere is projecting a 15 seed for the Big Sky winner... haven't really seen anyone divert from that at all.

Best case scenario for the Wildcats is for both teams to win until Feb 28, because that would get both RPIs as high as possible. Then obviously, WSU beat MT both at the end of the regular season, and then meet again and beat them in the conference title game. If all of that happens, I think 14 is possible. It seems like 13 would be unlikely at this point, because WSU is low on impressive wins.

While that's true, a lot of it will change come conference tourney time. Remember all the teams they have in are the "favorites" to win the conference tourney. So if we can get 1 or 2 teams out of (Iona, Nevada, Belmont, Oral Roberts, Mid Tenn St) to lose a game or two in the regular season or in the conference tourney then we will be jumping up. If we take care of business I think it's almost a sure thing we get 14 seed, and 40% chance we can get a 13 seed.

 

[weberwildcat]

also keep in mind teams that arent supposed to go dancing that win the conf tourney in the bigger conferences or make a deep run and get an at large. these schools basically never get a worse seed than a 12. 13-16 being reserved for the smaller schools.

its hard to predict but i like dubs way of thinking. as 12 seed from the big sky would be a great seed.