We've analyzed Idaho State's defense and special teams heading into the new season, now let's look at the intangible factors which can often determine the difference between a good and a bad -- or a great -- season.
Injuries
Idaho State had a very healthy -- and fortunate -- season in 2014. On offense, the Bengals had 7 players who started all 12 games, and a total of 11 who started at least 9. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals had 4 players who started all 12 games, and 9 who started 9 or more. Most of ISU's most valuable players -- Justin Arias, Xavier Finney, four-fifths of the offensive line, Mitch Beckstead, Austin Graves and Mario Jenkins on defense -- didn't miss a game, or missed no more than one.
Can ISU count on similar good health this year? That is one factor no one can guarantee.
Penalty Yards
Typically, good teams don't commit a lot of penalties, and they draw a lot of penalties against them. But there is also an element of luck in penalties -- refs have bad games, other teams have bad games, etc. The Bengals were not the "cleanest" team in the game last year -- they finished ninth in the Big Sky in penalty yardage given up, getting hit for 61 yards a game. But, ISU offset that by drawing the most penalty yards of any team in the league -- Bengal opponents averaged over 82 yards a game in penalty yardage. A lot of that can be attributed to the Bengals' wide-open, aggressive style of play on offense. But there is still an element of luck, and there are no guarantees the Bengals will get that much benefit of a doubt from the stripes this season.
Red Zone Efficiency
The mark of most good teams is the ability to put the ball in the end zone when they get inside their opponents' 20 -- and to figure out a way to keep their opponents from cashing touchdowns when they drive the field. ISU was pretty good in both areas last season: the Bengal defense was the third best in the conference at keeping opponents from scoring, holding them to 76 percent in the red zone -- and just 29 touchdowns out of 46 red zone opportunities. The Bengals, by contrast, were the third best red zone offense in the league, cashing in on a whopping 87.5 percent of red zone opportunities, including 39 touchdowns out of 56 trips inside the opponents' 20 yardline.
Can ISU continue to generate the kinds of turnovers and sacks -- the big plays -- that helped them generate such a good red zone D? They'll be missing Austin Graves and Mitch Beckstead, two of their biggest "big play" makers. They'll have to find replacements for those two.
Offensively, the key to great red zone offense is typically quarterback execution. Again, ISU will be missing Justin Arias, and will have to count on JC transfer Michael Sanders to be as effective inside opponents' 20s.
Scoring by Quarters
ISU outscored its opponents in every quarter last year -- except the third. The Bengals were outscored 109-84 in the third period, the quarter when teams make their biggest adjustments coming out of halftime. Can ISU execute better after halftime this year?
Time of Possession
Nobody makes a mockery of time of possession statistics more than ISU's high-flying offense. And yet, the Bengals did a much better job of running the football last year than previous seasons under now-departed OC Don Bailey. As a result, ISU's time of possession stats were slightly better -- the Bengals finished 10th in the league with just over 28 minutes of possession a game. The Bengals will probably never be in the top five in the conference in TOP due purely to the nature of their attack, but it's nice to be able to possess the football late in a tight game, especially if your defense has been worn down.
Third Down Conversions
The Bengals were an efficient 44 percent in converting third downs last year -- that's the good news. The bad news is the defense really struggled to get off the field, giving up a 46 percent success rate for opponents. No matter how good your turnover margin and the number of sacks you put up, if you're going to be a good defense you've got to get that third-down success rate down significantly.
Coaching
The Bengals have the most experienced head coach in the conference in Mike Kramer. If anybody knows what needs to be done to be successful in the Big Sky, it's Kramer. But he has a young staff, as do most Big Sky schools, and he'll be breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Sheldon Cross. The offensive play-calling will be heavily scrutinized, particularly with a new quarterback under center. And ISU needs to do a better job across the board on special teams, an area Kramer coaches himself. The Bengals will also be looking to break in several new faces on defense, especially looking to replace big playmakers Graves and Beckstead. How quickly the coaching staff can integrate some of the new junior college and prep talent coming in via what looks like a very good recruiting year will also be critical.
Schedule
There's just no getting around it, this is going to be an incredibly difficult schedule, with only five home games, two FBS opponents, and a stretch of only one home game over a period of six weeks in the middle of the season. And ISU will face the three top-rated teams in the conference -- Montana, Montana State and EWU, although granted all three will be in the Dome. The question is can Idaho State win enough games in that brutal early-season run so that they still have some momentum and confidence by the time the Griz, Bobcats and Eagles arrive?
Injuries
Idaho State had a very healthy -- and fortunate -- season in 2014. On offense, the Bengals had 7 players who started all 12 games, and a total of 11 who started at least 9. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals had 4 players who started all 12 games, and 9 who started 9 or more. Most of ISU's most valuable players -- Justin Arias, Xavier Finney, four-fifths of the offensive line, Mitch Beckstead, Austin Graves and Mario Jenkins on defense -- didn't miss a game, or missed no more than one.
Can ISU count on similar good health this year? That is one factor no one can guarantee.
Penalty Yards
Typically, good teams don't commit a lot of penalties, and they draw a lot of penalties against them. But there is also an element of luck in penalties -- refs have bad games, other teams have bad games, etc. The Bengals were not the "cleanest" team in the game last year -- they finished ninth in the Big Sky in penalty yardage given up, getting hit for 61 yards a game. But, ISU offset that by drawing the most penalty yards of any team in the league -- Bengal opponents averaged over 82 yards a game in penalty yardage. A lot of that can be attributed to the Bengals' wide-open, aggressive style of play on offense. But there is still an element of luck, and there are no guarantees the Bengals will get that much benefit of a doubt from the stripes this season.
Red Zone Efficiency
The mark of most good teams is the ability to put the ball in the end zone when they get inside their opponents' 20 -- and to figure out a way to keep their opponents from cashing touchdowns when they drive the field. ISU was pretty good in both areas last season: the Bengal defense was the third best in the conference at keeping opponents from scoring, holding them to 76 percent in the red zone -- and just 29 touchdowns out of 46 red zone opportunities. The Bengals, by contrast, were the third best red zone offense in the league, cashing in on a whopping 87.5 percent of red zone opportunities, including 39 touchdowns out of 56 trips inside the opponents' 20 yardline.
Can ISU continue to generate the kinds of turnovers and sacks -- the big plays -- that helped them generate such a good red zone D? They'll be missing Austin Graves and Mitch Beckstead, two of their biggest "big play" makers. They'll have to find replacements for those two.
Offensively, the key to great red zone offense is typically quarterback execution. Again, ISU will be missing Justin Arias, and will have to count on JC transfer Michael Sanders to be as effective inside opponents' 20s.
Scoring by Quarters
ISU outscored its opponents in every quarter last year -- except the third. The Bengals were outscored 109-84 in the third period, the quarter when teams make their biggest adjustments coming out of halftime. Can ISU execute better after halftime this year?
Time of Possession
Nobody makes a mockery of time of possession statistics more than ISU's high-flying offense. And yet, the Bengals did a much better job of running the football last year than previous seasons under now-departed OC Don Bailey. As a result, ISU's time of possession stats were slightly better -- the Bengals finished 10th in the league with just over 28 minutes of possession a game. The Bengals will probably never be in the top five in the conference in TOP due purely to the nature of their attack, but it's nice to be able to possess the football late in a tight game, especially if your defense has been worn down.
Third Down Conversions
The Bengals were an efficient 44 percent in converting third downs last year -- that's the good news. The bad news is the defense really struggled to get off the field, giving up a 46 percent success rate for opponents. No matter how good your turnover margin and the number of sacks you put up, if you're going to be a good defense you've got to get that third-down success rate down significantly.
Coaching
The Bengals have the most experienced head coach in the conference in Mike Kramer. If anybody knows what needs to be done to be successful in the Big Sky, it's Kramer. But he has a young staff, as do most Big Sky schools, and he'll be breaking in a new offensive coordinator in Sheldon Cross. The offensive play-calling will be heavily scrutinized, particularly with a new quarterback under center. And ISU needs to do a better job across the board on special teams, an area Kramer coaches himself. The Bengals will also be looking to break in several new faces on defense, especially looking to replace big playmakers Graves and Beckstead. How quickly the coaching staff can integrate some of the new junior college and prep talent coming in via what looks like a very good recruiting year will also be critical.
Schedule
There's just no getting around it, this is going to be an incredibly difficult schedule, with only five home games, two FBS opponents, and a stretch of only one home game over a period of six weeks in the middle of the season. And ISU will face the three top-rated teams in the conference -- Montana, Montana State and EWU, although granted all three will be in the Dome. The question is can Idaho State win enough games in that brutal early-season run so that they still have some momentum and confidence by the time the Griz, Bobcats and Eagles arrive?
