Let the playoff speculation begin

[clawman1]

Now we are in the fun time of the season. My question is, if Big Sky teams keep beating up on each other and the conference ends up with several teams with multiple FCS losses and none ranked in the top 5 in the polls, is there still a top 5 seed from the west?

 

[kalm]

Now we are in the fun time of the season. My question is, if Big Sky teams keep beating up on each other and the conference ends up with several teams with multiple FCS losses and none ranked in the top 5 in the polls, is there still a top 5 seed from the west?

Wofford and GSU still face impossible FBS teams. Illinois State, Indiana State, SDSU and NDSU will be beating each other up over the next three weeks. SHSU still has to play Texas A&M which will be their 3rd loss and CAU doesnt have a great resume even if they get to 9-2. With the exception of UNH, all of the CAA elite s have tough games remaining.

The best two loss team from a conference that's likely to place 4, and maybe even 5 teams in the playoffs is a lock for a top 4 seed. Might even see two 9-2 BSC teams with seeds.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I think we'd still get a seed at 9-2. A lot of teams will still take each other out. I think NDSU will go 10-1 and almost certainly take the #1 seed. The weirdness will be if NAU goes 10-1, and I don't think they will, because they got such an easy conference slate. Outside of Cal Poly, it looks like they may wind up without any of the other top 3 teams in the conference on the sked.

We can only control what we can control, but 9-2 with our slate is probably going to look mighty attractive. However, one more loss would seal no seed. I don't think 7-4 will get anyone in this year, although ultimately you can't be sure until the dust settles.

 

[flyingnail]

I think we'd still get a seed at 9-2. A lot of teams will still take each other out. I think NDSU will go 10-1 and almost certainly take the #1 seed. The weirdness will be if NAU goes 10-1, and I don't think they will, because they got such an easy conference slate. Outside of Cal Poly, it looks like they may wind up without any of the other top 3 teams in the conference on the sked.

We can only control what we can control, but 9-2 with our slate is probably going to look mighty attractive. However, one more loss would seal no seed. I don't think 7-4 will get anyone in this year, although ultimately you can't be sure until the dust settles.

And if they continue on this course it will be a 7-4 season !

 

[ewueagle2010]

Yesterday, I was upset with this loss and don't get me wrong, I still am. EWU is a better team than SUU but just like MSU fans still believe from their game against us, the better team beat themselves.

Here is the bright side, it's one loss. EWU has never gone undefeated in the Big Sky before, and they had a 9-2 regular season the year they won the NC. This team has some things to figure out and I just don't believe EWU is or ever was the #1 team in the nation. :| At least not yet...

This loss could hurt the playoff seeding, but oh well. Getting into the playoffs is what matters and from there, it's a whole new season. I think this loss will motivate the team and make them realize they can't expect the ball to bounce their way every week. Now Montana fans (of both schools) seem to think EWU is horrible and overrated...I know everyone is shocked that they don't wanna give credit where it's due. Fact is were 2-0 against them and 5-1 in the Big Sky. Make a statement this weekend against Cal Poly and win out and were talking about at least 1 or 2 home playoff games. Lose another game this year and we'll probably have a tough road to travel and more than likely all on the road.

 

[kalm]

Wofford, Georgia Southern, and Indiana State losing yesterday really improved our position.

WC and GSU have South Carolina and Georgia left on their schedule so it doesn't look like anyone from the SoCon will finish with less than 3 losses.

In the MVFC, it's one loss NDSU with tough games remaining against 9-2 SDSU and @ 9-2 Illinois State. If the Bison win out the MVFC is a one-seed conference. If SDSU or ISU pick off the Bison it could be a two seed conference.

In the CAA you have 7-2 JMU with tough games left at 6-3 Villanova and 8-1 ODU at home. ODU plays Bill and Mary next week before traveling to JMU. UNH seems to have the easiest path to a seed hosting Towson and Bill and Mary.

The only other team outside the BSC I see getting a possible seed is 8-2 Central Arkansas (SHSU has two losses and finishes with Texas A&M). The Bears host an interesting final game with a solid Eastern Illinois who will be playing for their playoff lives. The Southland gained some cred with the committee last year with SHSU's run, so a 9-2 UCA might be in line for a seed.

Regardless, the BSC is in good shape for earning two seeds. If we keep the pedal down, and especially if Poly trips up NAU, one of those will be ours. :nod:

If NAU and MSU win out, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Wofford, Georgia Southern, and Indiana State losing yesterday really improved our position.

WC and GSU have South Carolina and Georgia left on their schedule so it doesn't look like anyone from the SoCon will finish with less than 3 losses.

In the MVFC, it's one loss NDSU with tough games remaining against 9-2 SDSU and @ 9-2 Illinois State. If the Bison win out the MVFC is a one-seed conference. If SDSU or ISU pick off the Bison it could be a two seed conference.

In the CAA you have 7-2 JMU with tough games left at 6-3 Villanova and 8-1 ODU at home. ODU plays Bill and Mary next week before traveling to JMU. UNH seems to have the easiest path to a seed hosting Towson and Bill and Mary.

The only other team outside the BSC I see getting a possible seed is 8-2 Central Arkansas (SHSU has two losses and finishes with Texas A&M). The Bears host an interesting final game with a solid Eastern Illinois who will be playing for their playoff lives. The Southland gained some cred with the committee last year with SHSU's run, so a 9-2 UCA might be in line for a seed.

Regardless, the BSC is in good shape for earning two seeds. If we keep the pedal down, and especially if Poly trips up NAU, one of those will be ours. :nod:

If NAU and MSU win out, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

The SoCon is the likely power conferencer that won't get a seed. It doesn't look like anyone will have less than 3 losses. There could easily be two CAA teams seeded if Old Dominion and New Hampshire win out. NDSU probably runs the table and gets the #1 seed. San Houston State has been looking great, but with 3 losses, they don't get a seed. That means 2 seeds are on the table for the Big Sky.

Probably the worst case scenario is NAU and Montana State each winning out and only having one loss. Eastern with two could potentially look unfavorable. But even with 2 losses, our resume is stronger and I'd still suspect we get the #3 seed and Montana State #4. If Montana beats MSU, the NAU probably gets the #4 or 5.

All speculative, of course, with a lot of football to be played and variables outstanding.

 

[EWURanger]

The best case scenario for us it to win out, and then for MSU to lose to Montana and NAU to lose to Cal Poly. That would put Eastern tied for 1st place with NAU in the Big Sky. Since we don't play, I think it would come down to the tie-breaker scenario and EWU has a better Sagarin rating. What a mess this is right now, but all EWU can do is control what it can. Gotta win out, one game at a time.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I know it is all academic and no one can blame NAU for their easy schedule this year, but what an abomination that they get a conference schedule that doesn't include Eastern, Montana State, or Sac State.

Frankly, I'm not really sure Cal Poly deserves to be in that top 1/4 of the conference conversation either, and that's the toughest team NAU plays all season except Arizona State who knocked the shit out of them and then smushed their face in it.

I'd love to see Eastern get NAU in the second round and just take a friggin hammer upside their head. Playing Montana State gives me a bit of fear, NAU gives me very little. Unless Eastern comes out and lays an egg, I think NAU is a fairly easy win,

 

[Obzerver]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf

MSU getting a #2 seed at 9-1, a weak-ass schedule, and a loss to us head to head is downright laughable.

 

[LDopaPDX]

That bracket is as bad as any you could come up with. No seeded teams at all from the Colonial. 3 of the first 4 seeds to Big Sky, and one to a likely 3-loss Southland team. Can you imagine the East Coast power brokers bitching if a 2-loss James Madison got sent to a first round game?

Plus, this would be about as rough a road as Eastern could get. Honestly, while I think NDSU is the best team in the FCS, at this exact moment I'd say Sam Houston State is playing the absolute best. I'd like to avoid those two at all cost for as long as possible.

Plus, we'd get the winner of a play-in game between two teams that have been in the top 7 or 8 all season long.

 

[marceagfan5]

Right now I think the Big Sky has a shot to get 4 teams in the playoffs but i would be surprised to see 3 of the 5 seeds go to Big Sky teams, although it is a possibility.

- NAU controls their Big Sky destiny and I don't think they are getting enough credit. If they win out, they finish 9-1 (Fort Lewis doesn't count), they beat an FBS team, and their only loss is to a decent Pac 12 school. I just don't see how they are seeded behind us or MSU. The have 1 loss and would have wins at Montana, at UND, Cal Poly, and at UNLV, not a difficult schedule, but tougher than MSU's. They would own the outright Big Sky title. I think everyone is underestimating where they will be seeded. They could have the same record as MSU, with better wins, and a conference title. I don't care where teams are ranked, pretty sure NAU takes the best seed if they win out.

- MSU is a difficult one for me. If they win out, they finish 9-1 (Chadron doesn't count) and they are probably ranked #1 or #2 in the country depending on how NDSU finishes. You would think they would have a high seed, but I just don't see it. If we win out, we would have the same amount of FCS wins as them, 9, and we would have a head to head win against them, not sure how the committee could seed them ahead of us if we both win out. In 2010 we were ranked #1 to end the year, but MSU received the higher seed for owning the head to head win and conference auto bid over us, those roles could be reversed this year if we both win out. MSU still has a really tough game left. The Griz have 2 weeks to prepare for the Cats and that will be a monster game. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to the Griz in Missoula because the Griz will have a lot to play for. If MSU wins out they are deserving of a seed, just not sure how you give them a better seed than EWU or NAU.

- Cal Poly probably only has a shot at a seed if they win out and the other top Big Sky teams lose a game and Cal Poly wins the auto bid. If Cal Poly wins one of the next 2, they are in, they win both, they probably have a playoff bye and home game. They do have an FBS win which helps them.

- EWU, I think if we win out we will have a 2-4 seed, depending on how things play out. We definitely have the easiest schedule of the 4 remaining Big Sky teams. We hold tie breakers over MSU and Cal Poly, and if NAU drops one down the stretch, I don't see how we couldn't win the Big Sky auto bid going into the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see NAU & EWU receive the 2 and 3 seeds if both teams win out because we didn't play each other in the season, could also see them giving us the 4 and 5 seeds if it plays out that way. I think we have the best wins of any of the Big Sky teams, and the playoff committee is going to look more at who you beat rather than who beat you and that will help us. We need to win out and I think we should be seeded, and I'd be shocked if we weren't.

I think Sac lost its chance at the playoffs with the loss. They have some good wins, and if they win their last game, they have a shot at the playoffs, but I think this is a year where some 7 win FCS teams are left out. I think Sac is definitely deserving but I don't see the playoff committee thinking the same way...

Looking forward to the next few weeks. We should beat a mediocre UC Davis team at home and we owe PSU an ass kicking in 2 weeks.

Looking forward to a deep playoff run, but we need to take it one game at a time...

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Right now I think the Big Sky has a shot to get 4 teams in the playoffs but i would be surprised to see 3 of the 5 seeds go to Big Sky teams, although it is a possibility.

- NAU controls their Big Sky destiny and I don't think they are getting enough credit. If they win out, they finish 9-1 (Fort Lewis doesn't count), they beat an FBS team, and their only loss is to a decent Pac 12 school. I just don't see how they are seeded behind us or MSU. The have 1 loss and would have wins at Montana, at UND, Cal Poly, and at UNLV, not a difficult schedule, but tougher than MSU's. They would own the outright Big Sky title. I think everyone is underestimating where they will be seeded. They could have the same record as MSU, with better wins, and a conference title. I don't care where teams are ranked, pretty sure NAU takes the best seed if they win out.

- MSU is a difficult one for me. If they win out, they finish 9-1 (Chadron doesn't count) and they are probably ranked #1 or #2 in the country depending on how NDSU finishes. You would think they would have a high seed, but I just don't see it. If we win out, we would have the same amount of FCS wins as them, 9, and we would have a head to head win against them, not sure how the committee could seed them ahead of us if we both win out. In 2010 we were ranked #1 to end the year, but MSU received the higher seed for owning the head to head win and conference auto bid over us, those roles could be reversed this year if we both win out. MSU still has a really tough game left. The Griz have 2 weeks to prepare for the Cats and that will be a monster game. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to the Griz in Missoula because the Griz will have a lot to play for. If MSU wins out they are deserving of a seed, just not sure how you give them a better seed than EWU or NAU.

- Cal Poly probably only has a shot at a seed if they win out and the other top Big Sky teams lose a game and Cal Poly wins the auto bid. If Cal Poly wins one of the next 2, they are in, they win both, they probably have a playoff bye and home game. They do have an FBS win which helps them.

- EWU, I think if we win out we will have a 2-4 seed, depending on how things play out. We definitely have the easiest schedule of the 4 remaining Big Sky teams. We hold tie breakers over MSU and Cal Poly, and if NAU drops one down the stretch, I don't see how we couldn't win the Big Sky auto bid going into the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised to see NAU & EWU receive the 2 and 3 seeds if both teams win out because we didn't play each other in the season, could also see them giving us the 4 and 5 seeds if it plays out that way. I think we have the best wins of any of the Big Sky teams, and the playoff committee is going to look more at who you beat rather than who beat you and that will help us. We need to win out and I think we should be seeded, and I'd be shocked if we weren't.

I think Sac lost its chance at the playoffs with the loss. They have some good wins, and if they win their last game, they have a shot at the playoffs, but I think this is a year where some 7 win FCS teams are left out. I think Sac is definitely deserving but I don't see the playoff committee thinking the same way...

Looking forward to the next few weeks. We should beat a mediocre UC Davis team at home and we owe PSU an ass kicking in 2 weeks.

Looking forward to a deep playoff run, but we need to take it one game at a time...

100% spot on. Well done. :nod: :thumb: