NBA draft and Dame

[cheesus]

Now that the season is more or less over, I thought I'd give my thoughts on Dame and update his draft status. First of all nobody for sure knows whether he is going to declare for the draft or not. Maybe not even Dame his self could give you an answer for sure. Personally my opinion hasn't changed since the beginning of the year. I think it is pretty silly to think he would ever was going to come back next year (except for injury or other extreme example)

The latest update from my two favorite draft sites

NBAdraft.net - http://nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (updated 3/7/12) - has Dame going 11th overall

draftexpress.com - http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (updated 3/8/12) has him going 13th overall.

It is important to note that neither of these websites take team needs into consideration when making their mock drafts, and only place players based on a number of different factors outside of the team at that spot (player's NBA potential, strength of player's position in the draft, gut feelings, etc). Only after NBA season ends and draft order is decided will team needs be taken into account (for example jazz, Suns, and Portland need a PG, Chicago, Cleveland, Golden State are most likely not going to draft a PG)

also espn's chad ford made a mock draft for lottery teams only depending on what teams finish where. http://espn.go.com/nba/lottery2012/mockdraft" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (this is a database that gets updated daily) - in almost every situation he has the Jazz taking Dame. As of today He goes as high as 10th overall.

Also at the end of the season NBA teams will start working out players they are interested in drafting. there is a league wide pre draft camp where measurements are taken as well as other speed, strength, and agility tests will be administrated amoung the NBA hopefuls.

some other tweets about Dame:

Chad Ford - ”Damian Lillard's season may be over, but his 29 pts, 10 reb, 7 assts impressed scouts again. I think he'll be a Top 10 pick in the NBA Draft”

”I think both the Jazz and the Suns would be natural fits for Lillard on draft night.”

Draft Express - I asked a GM if Damian Lillard will go lottery. "He should but no one will have the balls to take a guy who played at Weber State that high" Utah is a very important exception for Lillard. Need a PG, know him intimately, and GM does not give a damn what anyone thinks.

Jazz fans should be happy with this. A lot of people think he will be a mid to late lottery pick. Jazz should have two picks in the 10 - 14 range and need a PG that can score and shoot the 3 pointer.

Also the latest NBA scout's take on Dame was written today (3/8/12) http://nbadraft.net/players/damian-lillard" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We all want Dame to stay at Weber, but if he does declare the good news is, as of now, there is a good chance he will stay in Utah for the foreseeable future.

 

[Waldo2]

From a very selfish point of view, I hope he stays at Weber.

But, he will be playing in the NBA next year. Good for him and I hope he has a long and successful career in the NBA. I hope he goes in the top 10 and gets a big, fat contract

 

[weberwildcat]

This is also the explanation as to why we see the jazz in the mock draft as taking both sullinger and zeller, both bigs. they are just the best players listed in order even if the jazz wont take or need 2 bigs.

 

[weberwildcat]

i will take the role of why dame should leave. who will take the role of why he should or will stay? good cop/bad cop

 

[cheesus]

There are not really any good reasons for him to stay. He will get his degree this semester. One of the biggest knocks on him is he plays for a sub-par conference and against weaker opponents. I can't imagine coming back will help his stock in the draft at all. Some people think he can come back to Weber and develop into a better player, but that's actually very bad logic. Think about it, in the NBA he will focus on basketball a lot more. He will have access to better equipment, he will practice against better players, etc. There is a sports economics book I read called "Stumbling on wins" here is the website - http://stumblingonwins.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. There is a section about the NBA draft. It says, by there calculations, a player will drop about 10 spots in the draft for every year they stay in school. that is why the lottery is filled with freshmen and sophomores. I recommend this book to anyone who is interested in sports economics.

also on a side note, I was just listening to the Gordon Monson show on 1280 and he said that the Jazz were very interested in Dame and have scouted him heavily.

 

[WeberSki]

I'll play devil's advocate,

We've seen Andrew Luck stay at Stanford, & Barkley at USC because they enjoyed college life & wanted to make another run. The chances of injury as a Pac12 quarterback versus basketball are quite a bit higher.

Luck went from a top 10-15 pick, to the sure fire #1.

David Locke had a show one time where the #'s show it's usually only the top 5 or 6 picks in the lottery that can really become superstars, & franchise type changing players. After that the #'s are quite sporadic on guys success rates, & even being able to stick in the league.

What are the risks of sliding to a late 1st rounder, now that the spotlight is completely off, & will be on others shining in March madness. Some guys make their names in March.

Reading the scouts report dated 3/8/12 on nbadraft.net, there is the concern about him playing at Weber State. If the scouts are that concerned about it, does it make them that much more nervous that he was never able to reach the NCAA's & dominate out of the Big Sky? I heard Kevin O'Connor after the Jazz drafted Gordon Hayward say the biggest reason they drafted him is because he's won everywhere he goes, including taking Butler to the title game.

Finally, Weber has a lot of talent coming back, & in, including 3 friends he helped lure to WSU in Berry, Otis, & Richardson. They could make some serious noise next year...

 

[purpleandwhite]

I've been interested in this thread, but as of yet, no one has mentioned what I consider the most obvious reason why he should leave. Heaven forbid that it should happen again, but Dame knows painfully well how quickly your season can end due to injury (as do quite a few of our players this year). Why would he come back and risk an injury that could derail him and his hopes when right now getting drafted is a sure thing?

If he didn't have his degree yet, that might be enough to say stay and finish. But I can't think of any other reason that would be worth taking the risk of getting injured and being passed over in the next because he couldn't play enough to retain interest and no one knows what his capability would be when he recovered. Or even worse, an injury that is bad enough to end a career. (Now I'm going to find something wooden to knock on).

 

[cheesus]

I'll play devil's advocate,

We've seen Andrew Luck stay at Stanford, & Barkley at USC because they enjoyed college life & wanted to make another run. The chances of injury as a Pac12 quarterback versus basketball are quite a bit higher.

Luck went from a top 10-15 pick, to the sure fire #1.

David Locke had a show one time where the #'s show it's usually only the top 5 or 6 picks in the lottery that can really become superstars, & franchise type changing players. After that the #'s are quite sporadic on guys success rates, & even being able to stick in the league.

What are the risks of sliding to a late 1st rounder, now that the spotlight is completely off, & will be on others shining in March madness. Some guys make their names in March.

Reading the scouts report dated 3/8/12 on nbadraft.net, there is the concern about him playing at Weber State. If the scouts are that concerned about it, does it make them that much more nervous that he was never able to reach the NCAA's & dominate out of the Big Sky? I heard Kevin O'Connor after the Jazz drafted Gordon Hayward say the biggest reason they drafted him is because he's won everywhere he goes, including taking Butler to the title game.

Finally, Weber has a lot of talent coming back, & in, including 3 friends he helped lure to WSU in Berry, Otis, & Richardson. They could make some serious noise next year...

just curious, do you personally think he will stay or go? Some good points you mentioned, but historically college football players are always more likely to stay in school and help there draft status more than college basketball players are. Also there is quite a bit of difference in a player getting drafted in the lottery compared to a late first round pick. any first round pick in the NBA gets two guaranteed years plus two years of team options. So they already have there salary decided for 4 years and it changes depending on draft position. Also worth knowing is the average NBA player plays about 5 years in the league. the difference in that 4 year span of say the 12th pick and the 22nd pick could be millions of dollars. Also another big reason the Jazz drafted Hayward is because they thought they'd have an easier time re-signing him long term, even though Paul George (drafted right after hayward) was probably the better prospect. this is a good reason for lillard to come out this year. there are 3 teams that have late lottery picks who have been mentioned as good fits for Lillard. one of the best things about lillard is he is very loyal and wouldn't be a problem player (think demarcus cousins) combine that with the fact this is a very weak draft for PG's makes me hink he'll enter the draft this year. teams wouldnt worry about him leaving them in free agency as much as other players. lets face it most NBA players want to play in New york, LA, or chicago. I don't think Lillard cares as much where he plays. lastly i too heard Lock talk about only top 5 or 6 players end up being superstars. i think that helps the argument of him leaving this year. His draft stock will not be highrer than it is now. As much as I love Dame as a player I think it's a little too much to expect him to be a superstar or top 6 pick in any draft.
The best argument for him staying is being able to come back and play one more year with his friends. Which in my opinion is a pretty weak reason to come back to school.

 

[UtahPirate]

No one has mentioned money. Lillard started the year as maybe a 2nd round pick and has worked all the way up to being the 1st point guard taken in this years draft. He has really come out of nowhere and does not compare with any well known athletes who stuck with school an extra year -- they were all well known commodities when their careers began. GMs and scouts have flocked to games to see if Lillard is for real. And insiders like Chad Ford have documented his meteoric rise often with total surprise. You would be hard pressed to find a similar story of nowhere to lottery pick in recent years. Hard work has gotten him to where he has guaranteed money none of us could dream of.

Here's a 2012 projection of the NBA rookie caps by position drafted (3 year guarantee):

Pick 10: 1st year $1,865,300; 2nd year $1,949,200; 3rd year $2,033,200

Pick 13: 1st year $1,599,300; 2nd year $1,671,300; 3rd year $1,743,200

Pick 20: 1st year $1,134,500; 2nd year $1,185,600; 3rd year $1,236,600

Pick 24: 1st year $963,600; 2nd year $1,007,000; 3rd year $1,050,300

At Pick 10 the 3 year total salary is $5,847,700 At pick 24 the 3 year total salary is $2,114,600

Would anyone seriously advise him to stay and take a chance on injury, or face a stronger draft class next year and slide down the scale?

It has been a thrill to watch him, a great pleasure. I have wonderful memories of games where he constantly surpassed my expectations. But if he can get to a #10 pick and almost $6 million I say good for Lillard, good for his family. Have a great NBA career and I will watch it closely. And my son can finally buy a jersey with your name on it.

I'm just hoping it is the Jazz.

 

[weberwildcat]

Utah Pirate,

you just brought up the number one reason to leave.

also it is worth mentioning as a first round selection the first 2 years are guaranteed contract no matter what happens. the 3rd and 4th year the team as the option to keep the player. so 2 yrs for sure and possible 3rd and 4th year.

so if he is the 24th pick that means he would give up basically 2 million minimum to stay at weber for another season. so no, i doubt anyone advise him to stay. even the last pick in the first rd last year still got 1 mil per year.

also another consideration would be his career time table. the clock is ticking. you can only play so long. my favorite quote about earning income is from Snoop Doggie Dog, "Ball til you fall" which means make all the money you can until you can't anymore. It is a good slogan for anyone in their life.

one can say he could probably get the same contract/draft spot next year but that is still one less year he can earn basketball income. It is essentially giving up 1 million at a minimum to play at weber next year.

if the average nba career is say 4 years then you want to get started as soon as possible or if the average professional basketball career is say 7 years one would want to get started as soon as possible.

 

[n.ogdencat]

Great points.

I think all of us could agree that we want Dame to stay another year. We are fans of Weber State and with Dame we all know that Weber will be a shoe in to contend for the conference title, and help the Cats gain much needed regional and national respect. Another Oqquir Bucket wouldn't be bad either, a victory in Logan, oh wow...

However, Dame is a great player, he has accomplished so much at Weber, and now is the best window of opportunity for him to move on, to achieve his dream, of playing in the NBA. Hell, he is being tabbed as a lottery pick. If Dame means that much to us, then the best way to applaud his current success is by supporting him and being excited about his NBA oppportunities. It would be crazy to not go. Besides, once a Wildcat, always a Wildcat. Because of him, Weber is far better off. Isn't that how we should all look at life? To leave something better than what you found it? He will always be around to help the Cats. Thats just his nature. That is who he is. Come on O'Connor, draft Damian Lillard!!

 

[weberwildcat]

if we can start an endowment and raise 2 million i bet we can get him to stay. we just create a contract that he cant get the dough until the 2013 season ends and lets keep this on the downlow from weber compliance. :lol:

 

[qwerky1]

No one has mentioned money. Lillard started the year as maybe a 2nd round pick and has worked all the way up to being the 1st point guard taken in this years draft. He has really come out of nowhere and does not compare with any well known athletes who stuck with school an extra year -- they were all well known commodities when their careers began. GMs and scouts have flocked to games to see if Lillard is for real. And insiders like Chad Ford have documented his meteoric rise often with total surprise. You would be hard pressed to find a similar story of nowhere to lottery pick in recent years. Hard work has gotten him to where he has guaranteed money none of us could dream of.

Here's a 2012 projection of the NBA rookie caps by position drafted (3 year guarantee):

Pick 10: 1st year $1,865,300; 2nd year $1,949,200; 3rd year $2,033,200

Pick 13: 1st year $1,599,300; 2nd year $1,671,300; 3rd year $1,743,200

Pick 20: 1st year $1,134,500; 2nd year $1,185,600; 3rd year $1,236,600

Pick 24: 1st year $963,600; 2nd year $1,007,000; 3rd year $1,050,300

At Pick 10 the 3 year total salary is $5,847,700 At pick 24 the 3 year total salary is $2,114,600

Would anyone seriously advise him to stay and take a chance on injury, or face a stronger draft class next year and slide down the scale?

It has been a thrill to watch him, a great pleasure. I have wonderful memories of games where he constantly surpassed my expectations. But if he can get to a #10 pick and almost $6 million I say good for Lillard, good for his family. Have a great NBA career and I will watch it closely. And my son can finally buy a jersey with your name on it.

I'm just hoping it is the Jazz.

:thumb: Thank you from the family. Is your son the one in the photo that he was signing in Sacramento?

 

[UtahPirate]

That wouldn't be my son, but my grandson (3) has an after game picture with him that we need to get signed. Damian knows my daughters who were both WSU Spirit Squad dancers and he graciously posed with my grandson after a recent game.

The son I was talking about is 16 and a big fan. At his high school he and his friends invented Thursday is Jersday this year and it has totally caught on with the boys and the girls at his high school. NBA jerseys everywhere on Jersday, old players, new players, all kinds of stuff. He just got a Jerry West jersey from China and I told him that is the only Lakers jersey he'll ever be allowed to wear -- Ha! But he would love to add a Lillard one to his collection, no matter where he goes. We have both had a great time watching him play.

 

[oldrunner]

qwerky1;

My wife and I met you and your family at St Mary's. I knew right away, why Damian is such nice, thoughtful person. The fruit doesn't fall far from the tree. We, at Weber State, are blessed to be connected to your family, through your son, Damian. Where ever life takes you from here, you are part of us and we are part of you. Where ever life finds you in the future, I hope it finds you well and prosporous.

 

[CatBasketballFan]

That wouldn't be my son, but my grandson (3) has an after game picture with him that we need to get signed. Damian knows my daughters who were both WSU Spirit Squad dancers and he graciously posed with my grandson after a recent game.

The son I was talking about is 16 and a big fan. At his high school he and his friends invented Thursday is Jersday this year and it has totally caught on with the boys and the girls at his high school. NBA jerseys everywhere on Jersday, old players, new players, all kinds of stuff. He just got a Jerry West jersey from China and I told him that is the only Lakers jersey he'll ever be allowed to wear -- Ha! But he would love to add a Lillard one to his collection, no matter where he goes. We have both had a great time watching him play.

I agree, Damian is "good stuff!" Dame, go pro, you have nothing left to do here... you gave your all this season and we appreciate that! God bless you!

 

[cheesus]

http://www.nba.com/2012/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/03/20/mock-draft/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

nba.com says Dame best PG prospect in draft as well. 12th best overall

 

[maddawg89]

Personally in my opinion i think he should go. next year there will be much better talent in the ncaa of PGs. if rivers stays there is one for sure better than him.

 

[cheesus]

Personally in my opinion i think he should go. next year there will be much better talent in the ncaa of PGs. if rivers stays there is one for sure better than him.

Lillard = PG at 12
Rivers =SG at 14

They are close this year as prospects and staying one year would probably help Rivers. Although they are different positions. I think Lillard will have a better NBA career.

 

[maddawg89]

rivers and curry kinda flip flop dont they?