So I just filled out my pre-season ballot for the Big Sky Conference and, while I'm not going to tell you in what order I voted the teams, I will share my thought process about each team, just to stimulate a little conversation during this "dead time." Here are my thoughts about each team, in no particular order:
Idaho State: might as well start with the home team. When I evaluate teams for these pre-season polls, I usually look at these particular factors: coach's track record, schedule, "stars" who are returning, and quarterback situation. Looking at ISU, the Bengals are in good shape with a coach who has won four Big Sky titles over the years, and 55 percent of his league games; their schedule is extremely difficult with only five homes games and two FBS teams on the road; they have some potential impact "stars" returning in Tavoy Moore, Josh Hill and AJ Storms; and their quarterback situation is in flux, with an unproven JC transfer in Kevin Yost and no experienced backups. The real question for me is can the Bengal defense stop folks, particularly since their "fast break" offense is going to ask them to be on the field for large percentages of the game.
Northern Colorado: The Bears have a new coach, Earnest Collins, who was only 8-12 in his two years as head man at Alcorn State; a quarterback who completed only 52 percent of his passes; a decent schedule with six home games and no more than two back-to-back road games; and an excellent pass-catching duo of Jace Davis and Patrick Williams returning. They do lose three defensive stalwards in LB John Eddy, S Matt King and CB Korey Askew.
Portland State: The Vikings' only Big Sky victory last year was over Idaho State under first-year coach Nigel Burton, and yet PSU is something of a shiek pick as a darkhorse this year. Why? Well, they return a whopping 20 starters, including their entire offensive line, a competant QB in Connor Kavanaugh and their entire defensive backfield. PSU led the league in rushing last year (203 yards a game) and Cory McCaffrey, their top runner, also returns. The Vikings play six games in their newly-remodelled downtown stadium, including two winnable contests to start the season against Southern Oregon and NAU.
Montana State: The co-conference champs return one of the best QBs in the league in sophomore DeNarius McGhee, the reigning coach of the year in Rob Ash (66 percent career winning percentage in Big Sky games) and 13 starters on both sides of the football. They also have a favorable schedule, with six home games, including big games against defending national champion Eastern Washington and rival Montana. But there are issues in Bozeman -- star running back Orenzo Davis was dismissed from the team, and McGhee sat out spring ball while recuperating from a foot injury. McGhee's health is critical to this team's success.
Northern Arizona: When you look at NAU and Coach Jerome Souers, there are two thoughts that go through your mind: longevity (Souers is the longest tenured coach at one BSC school in history -- 14 years) and inconsistency (He has won 47 percent of his conference games in those 14 years). The Axers are always safe picks to finish .500 in the league (they were 4-4 again last year), and this year looks pretty much the same. They have stars like RB Zach Baumann (1059 yards and 14 TDS last year) and DE Isaac Bond (first-team all-BSC), but they have to replace Michael Herricks, one of the best QBs in the nation last year. They get six games at home, including against perennial contenders EWU and Montana and three of their last four Big Sky games.
Montana: I will admit this is one of the few times I have NOT voted the Griz No. 1 in the pre-season poll. Montana has an inexperienced head coach heading into only his second season on the job, and they are looking for a starting QB. What will keep them in the race are 1) a favorable schedule with six home games, including EWU in Missoula and no more than 1 road game in a row: and 2) a defense that returns stars like Trumaine Johnson and Jordan Tripp and that led the league in every meaningful statistical category last year.
Eastern Washington: The Eagles have two huge advantages: a coach in Beau Baldwin who has won 75 percent of his league games (18-6), and a quarterback in Bo Levi Mitchell who led his team to a national championship. They also return stars like defensive lineman Renard Williams and the Johnson boys, Matt and Zac, two of the better defenders in the league. But again, all is not perfect in the land of the red turf: EWU loses an All-American on each side of the football (RB Taiwan Jones and LB J.C. Sherritt), and their schedule is horrific. It's almost unbelievable that the defending national champs will have only FOUR home games. They open the season at Washington, South Dakota and Montana and close it with road games at Cal Poly and Idaho State. If EWU wins the conference again this year, they will have EARNED it.
Sacramento State: Another "trendy pick" to move up the ladder this year, the Hornets' high-powered offense averaged almost 37 points a game over their last seven games last year, and lost to EWU on the road by only four points. QB Jeff Fleming, who basically walked on campus the week camp opened and took charge after transferring from New Mexico, will be a key figure again this year, as he tries to rebound from an elbow injury. DE Zach Nash is an all-American and Bengal killer Bryan Hilliard returns at RB. In order to stay in the race, however, the Hornets have to overcome a schedule that puts them on the road for the first three weeks of the season, and five of the first six.
Weber State: The Wildcats lose an experienced QB in Cam Higgins who, mysteriously, saw his career decline over time, rather than improve. Junior Mike Hoke will get the chance to step up and, while he may not provide the same kind of magic Higgins did early in his WSU career, he may be able to give the kind of consistency Higgins could not. WSU also returns two all-BSC defenders in DT Ryan Eastman (who transferred BACK from Hawaii) and LB Nick Webb, and two all-conference OL in Caleb Turner and JC Oram. More importantly, they return a coach in Ron McBride who has won 62 percent of his conference contests.
Idaho State: might as well start with the home team. When I evaluate teams for these pre-season polls, I usually look at these particular factors: coach's track record, schedule, "stars" who are returning, and quarterback situation. Looking at ISU, the Bengals are in good shape with a coach who has won four Big Sky titles over the years, and 55 percent of his league games; their schedule is extremely difficult with only five homes games and two FBS teams on the road; they have some potential impact "stars" returning in Tavoy Moore, Josh Hill and AJ Storms; and their quarterback situation is in flux, with an unproven JC transfer in Kevin Yost and no experienced backups. The real question for me is can the Bengal defense stop folks, particularly since their "fast break" offense is going to ask them to be on the field for large percentages of the game.
Northern Colorado: The Bears have a new coach, Earnest Collins, who was only 8-12 in his two years as head man at Alcorn State; a quarterback who completed only 52 percent of his passes; a decent schedule with six home games and no more than two back-to-back road games; and an excellent pass-catching duo of Jace Davis and Patrick Williams returning. They do lose three defensive stalwards in LB John Eddy, S Matt King and CB Korey Askew.
Portland State: The Vikings' only Big Sky victory last year was over Idaho State under first-year coach Nigel Burton, and yet PSU is something of a shiek pick as a darkhorse this year. Why? Well, they return a whopping 20 starters, including their entire offensive line, a competant QB in Connor Kavanaugh and their entire defensive backfield. PSU led the league in rushing last year (203 yards a game) and Cory McCaffrey, their top runner, also returns. The Vikings play six games in their newly-remodelled downtown stadium, including two winnable contests to start the season against Southern Oregon and NAU.
Montana State: The co-conference champs return one of the best QBs in the league in sophomore DeNarius McGhee, the reigning coach of the year in Rob Ash (66 percent career winning percentage in Big Sky games) and 13 starters on both sides of the football. They also have a favorable schedule, with six home games, including big games against defending national champion Eastern Washington and rival Montana. But there are issues in Bozeman -- star running back Orenzo Davis was dismissed from the team, and McGhee sat out spring ball while recuperating from a foot injury. McGhee's health is critical to this team's success.
Northern Arizona: When you look at NAU and Coach Jerome Souers, there are two thoughts that go through your mind: longevity (Souers is the longest tenured coach at one BSC school in history -- 14 years) and inconsistency (He has won 47 percent of his conference games in those 14 years). The Axers are always safe picks to finish .500 in the league (they were 4-4 again last year), and this year looks pretty much the same. They have stars like RB Zach Baumann (1059 yards and 14 TDS last year) and DE Isaac Bond (first-team all-BSC), but they have to replace Michael Herricks, one of the best QBs in the nation last year. They get six games at home, including against perennial contenders EWU and Montana and three of their last four Big Sky games.
Montana: I will admit this is one of the few times I have NOT voted the Griz No. 1 in the pre-season poll. Montana has an inexperienced head coach heading into only his second season on the job, and they are looking for a starting QB. What will keep them in the race are 1) a favorable schedule with six home games, including EWU in Missoula and no more than 1 road game in a row: and 2) a defense that returns stars like Trumaine Johnson and Jordan Tripp and that led the league in every meaningful statistical category last year.
Eastern Washington: The Eagles have two huge advantages: a coach in Beau Baldwin who has won 75 percent of his league games (18-6), and a quarterback in Bo Levi Mitchell who led his team to a national championship. They also return stars like defensive lineman Renard Williams and the Johnson boys, Matt and Zac, two of the better defenders in the league. But again, all is not perfect in the land of the red turf: EWU loses an All-American on each side of the football (RB Taiwan Jones and LB J.C. Sherritt), and their schedule is horrific. It's almost unbelievable that the defending national champs will have only FOUR home games. They open the season at Washington, South Dakota and Montana and close it with road games at Cal Poly and Idaho State. If EWU wins the conference again this year, they will have EARNED it.
Sacramento State: Another "trendy pick" to move up the ladder this year, the Hornets' high-powered offense averaged almost 37 points a game over their last seven games last year, and lost to EWU on the road by only four points. QB Jeff Fleming, who basically walked on campus the week camp opened and took charge after transferring from New Mexico, will be a key figure again this year, as he tries to rebound from an elbow injury. DE Zach Nash is an all-American and Bengal killer Bryan Hilliard returns at RB. In order to stay in the race, however, the Hornets have to overcome a schedule that puts them on the road for the first three weeks of the season, and five of the first six.
Weber State: The Wildcats lose an experienced QB in Cam Higgins who, mysteriously, saw his career decline over time, rather than improve. Junior Mike Hoke will get the chance to step up and, while he may not provide the same kind of magic Higgins did early in his WSU career, he may be able to give the kind of consistency Higgins could not. WSU also returns two all-BSC defenders in DT Ryan Eastman (who transferred BACK from Hawaii) and LB Nick Webb, and two all-conference OL in Caleb Turner and JC Oram. More importantly, they return a coach in Ron McBride who has won 62 percent of his conference contests.
