Preview
The Hornets find themselves trying to figure out how they lost another close one at the end of a game as they prepare to take on a smoking hot NAU team who will be coming off of a last second loss in Missoula. NAU will be trying to avoid their ever familiar end of the season collapse and will be fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive as the Hornets head to Flagstaff in a series where the home team has won the last 6 matchups.
Offense:
NAU will be without QB Herrick who had surgery on his thumb last week. Herrick is possibly the best and most experienced QB in the BSC who was 125/198 (63.1%) with 1,231 yards, 9 TD, and 7 INT’s prior to last week’s game. However their backup QB Stangel had a solid showing and went 23/35 for 195 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT’s in Missoula. Overall their offense is ranked 8th in the BSC with 352.1 ypg, 240.0 ypg through the air (4th in BSC) and 112.1 ypg (8th in the BSC) on the ground. These stats don’t tell the whole story of this offense. They have been very efficient the past few weeks and I feel like they are in full stride and in position to make a playoff run. Their leading RB is Bauman who has 676 yards on 164 carries with 9 TD’s as well as 22 catches for 218 yards and 1 TD. The NAU OL is not huge but they have respectable size and athleticism to go along with their experience (3 SR’s). NAU has a solid tandem at WR and the receptions and yards are well balanced between Shanks (48 catches for 457 yards and 1 TD) and Curry-Chapman (40 catches for 375 yards and 3 TD’s).The numbers don’t reflect their potent offense. I was able to catch their rout win over MSU and they love to spread the field and make some quick strikes. NAU typically lines up in the shotgun with a multiple WR set, and then goes to town. They love to use the quick slants and short intermediate routes and then go for a big strike down the field. NAU also runs a lot of bubble screens to the WR’s and has quite a bit of success with screens to the RB’s as well as a sneaky delayed shovel pass right over the center. Their running game is capable and this team is well balanced and has the capability to move the ball effectively through the air and on the ground.
The Hornet defense is going to have to be on their toes if they want to stop the NAU attack. The Hornets will have to stay aggressive and try to get to the young QB. MSU went the route of dropping back into a zone and they were completely obliterated. The style of attack that NAU uses means that sitting back will do no good. The Hornets should be able to shut down the NAU rushing attack; however the defense will have to find a way to counter the screens and short passes that essentially subsidizes the NAU running game. The defense will need to make the open field tackles and force a couple of turnovers for the Hornets to have a chance in this one.
Defense:
The NAU defense is the best in the BSC. No other defense comes close. They are ranked 1st in total defense with only allowing a stingy 260.7 ypg with 182.0 ypg (2nd BSC) allowed through the air and an eye popping 78.7 ypg (1st BSC) on the ground. NAU runs a 4-3 base and has talent, experience, and depth at pretty much every position. The NAU DL is not huge, but they are supported by a very stout linebacking group that has a knack for getting to the ball and cleaning up the garbage at the line of scrimmage. LB Worthington is the leading tackler with only 43 tackles. 3 other players (LB McKeever, FS Estrada, and LB Dowd) have 31 or more tackles and SS Taylor leads the team in INT’s with only 2 (5 other players have 1 INT). This defense is stout with different players having the capability to step up and making a play. It is truly a team effort on defense and this is by far the most well rounded defense in the conference. This defense has no weakness.
The Hornets offense is going to have a tough task ahead of them. Sperbeck went away from the strength of this team last week and the Hornets fell behind early. The Hornets cannot afford to dick around with trick plays early in this one. The Hornets are going to have to line up and take it straight at NAU. The OL is going to have to be at their best to open up some lanes for Hilliard. The only advantage I see is the bigger Hornet OL against the slightly smaller NAU DL. If the Hornets can get some long drives together via a solid rushing attack with some success passing to keep the NAU defense honest, they might be able to wear down the NAU DL and control the tempo. I don’t see how else the Hornets can win this game if that cannot be accomplished. The NAU secondary will have a field day if Fleming is inaccurate so he will have to bring his “A” game. It is vital that this offense pull it together and not turn the ball over.
Special Teams:
NAU has not been explosive with their return game. NAU averages 16.2 yards per kick return and only 9.5 yards per punt return. Their punter Zamora is averaging 42.5 yards per punt and has 11 punts downed inside the 20. NAU has allowed 2 blocked punts. NAU’s kicker Myers is a respectable 9/12 with a long of 51 yards with a perfect 8/8 on FG’s of 39 yards or less. NAU has not allowed a blocked FG.
If the Hornets play solid coverage they should keep the NAU return game in check. The Hornets have blocked quite a few punts so look for the Hornets to go after a few in this one. Their kicker is solid from short to moderate range but has struggled to hit the long range FG’s. I have to think the Hornets hold s slight advantage in the kick game this week.
Intangibles:
NAU is a very disciplined team as they have much experience at pretty much every position. They are the 2nd least penalized team in the BSC with 46 penalties for 373 yards. NAU is about even in the turnover category. They have thrown 7 INT’s but have put the ball on the ground 12 times but only losing 5 of them. This team is not sloppy with the ball so turnovers will be tough to come by.
This game has the potential to turn into a defensive battle, but in all honesty I have a hard time seeing the Hornets pulling out a win in Flagstaff. They will be battling a huge elevation change as well as a hostile and loud environment if the NAU fans make it out to the game. That coupled with an inconsistent offensive attack going against the best defense in the conference leaves my wondering how the Hornets will respond to the challenge. The one thing the Hornets have shown week in and week out is the hunger and never quit attitude that has kept the Hornets competitive in every game this season. The thing that remains to be seen is if this team can finally put it all together and pull out a win against an above average team. The Hornets will need to keep their heads up and fight all game long and hope for the best.
GO HORNETS!!!
The Hornets find themselves trying to figure out how they lost another close one at the end of a game as they prepare to take on a smoking hot NAU team who will be coming off of a last second loss in Missoula. NAU will be trying to avoid their ever familiar end of the season collapse and will be fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive as the Hornets head to Flagstaff in a series where the home team has won the last 6 matchups.
Offense:
NAU will be without QB Herrick who had surgery on his thumb last week. Herrick is possibly the best and most experienced QB in the BSC who was 125/198 (63.1%) with 1,231 yards, 9 TD, and 7 INT’s prior to last week’s game. However their backup QB Stangel had a solid showing and went 23/35 for 195 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT’s in Missoula. Overall their offense is ranked 8th in the BSC with 352.1 ypg, 240.0 ypg through the air (4th in BSC) and 112.1 ypg (8th in the BSC) on the ground. These stats don’t tell the whole story of this offense. They have been very efficient the past few weeks and I feel like they are in full stride and in position to make a playoff run. Their leading RB is Bauman who has 676 yards on 164 carries with 9 TD’s as well as 22 catches for 218 yards and 1 TD. The NAU OL is not huge but they have respectable size and athleticism to go along with their experience (3 SR’s). NAU has a solid tandem at WR and the receptions and yards are well balanced between Shanks (48 catches for 457 yards and 1 TD) and Curry-Chapman (40 catches for 375 yards and 3 TD’s).The numbers don’t reflect their potent offense. I was able to catch their rout win over MSU and they love to spread the field and make some quick strikes. NAU typically lines up in the shotgun with a multiple WR set, and then goes to town. They love to use the quick slants and short intermediate routes and then go for a big strike down the field. NAU also runs a lot of bubble screens to the WR’s and has quite a bit of success with screens to the RB’s as well as a sneaky delayed shovel pass right over the center. Their running game is capable and this team is well balanced and has the capability to move the ball effectively through the air and on the ground.
The Hornet defense is going to have to be on their toes if they want to stop the NAU attack. The Hornets will have to stay aggressive and try to get to the young QB. MSU went the route of dropping back into a zone and they were completely obliterated. The style of attack that NAU uses means that sitting back will do no good. The Hornets should be able to shut down the NAU rushing attack; however the defense will have to find a way to counter the screens and short passes that essentially subsidizes the NAU running game. The defense will need to make the open field tackles and force a couple of turnovers for the Hornets to have a chance in this one.
Defense:
The NAU defense is the best in the BSC. No other defense comes close. They are ranked 1st in total defense with only allowing a stingy 260.7 ypg with 182.0 ypg (2nd BSC) allowed through the air and an eye popping 78.7 ypg (1st BSC) on the ground. NAU runs a 4-3 base and has talent, experience, and depth at pretty much every position. The NAU DL is not huge, but they are supported by a very stout linebacking group that has a knack for getting to the ball and cleaning up the garbage at the line of scrimmage. LB Worthington is the leading tackler with only 43 tackles. 3 other players (LB McKeever, FS Estrada, and LB Dowd) have 31 or more tackles and SS Taylor leads the team in INT’s with only 2 (5 other players have 1 INT). This defense is stout with different players having the capability to step up and making a play. It is truly a team effort on defense and this is by far the most well rounded defense in the conference. This defense has no weakness.
The Hornets offense is going to have a tough task ahead of them. Sperbeck went away from the strength of this team last week and the Hornets fell behind early. The Hornets cannot afford to dick around with trick plays early in this one. The Hornets are going to have to line up and take it straight at NAU. The OL is going to have to be at their best to open up some lanes for Hilliard. The only advantage I see is the bigger Hornet OL against the slightly smaller NAU DL. If the Hornets can get some long drives together via a solid rushing attack with some success passing to keep the NAU defense honest, they might be able to wear down the NAU DL and control the tempo. I don’t see how else the Hornets can win this game if that cannot be accomplished. The NAU secondary will have a field day if Fleming is inaccurate so he will have to bring his “A” game. It is vital that this offense pull it together and not turn the ball over.
Special Teams:
NAU has not been explosive with their return game. NAU averages 16.2 yards per kick return and only 9.5 yards per punt return. Their punter Zamora is averaging 42.5 yards per punt and has 11 punts downed inside the 20. NAU has allowed 2 blocked punts. NAU’s kicker Myers is a respectable 9/12 with a long of 51 yards with a perfect 8/8 on FG’s of 39 yards or less. NAU has not allowed a blocked FG.
If the Hornets play solid coverage they should keep the NAU return game in check. The Hornets have blocked quite a few punts so look for the Hornets to go after a few in this one. Their kicker is solid from short to moderate range but has struggled to hit the long range FG’s. I have to think the Hornets hold s slight advantage in the kick game this week.
Intangibles:
NAU is a very disciplined team as they have much experience at pretty much every position. They are the 2nd least penalized team in the BSC with 46 penalties for 373 yards. NAU is about even in the turnover category. They have thrown 7 INT’s but have put the ball on the ground 12 times but only losing 5 of them. This team is not sloppy with the ball so turnovers will be tough to come by.
This game has the potential to turn into a defensive battle, but in all honesty I have a hard time seeing the Hornets pulling out a win in Flagstaff. They will be battling a huge elevation change as well as a hostile and loud environment if the NAU fans make it out to the game. That coupled with an inconsistent offensive attack going against the best defense in the conference leaves my wondering how the Hornets will respond to the challenge. The one thing the Hornets have shown week in and week out is the hunger and never quit attitude that has kept the Hornets competitive in every game this season. The thing that remains to be seen is if this team can finally put it all together and pull out a win against an above average team. The Hornets will need to keep their heads up and fight all game long and hope for the best.
GO HORNETS!!!
