RPI/BPI ranking puts us at #25. I don't know what the difference between Sagarin is, but 25 or 29 I get your point. Here are a few things I think factor in.
The PAC is a turd and drags down the whole West. As the region's "elite" conference, unfortunately its incompetence reflects on everyone else. Ask pundits and they'll instantly tell you that except for a couple of teams, the whole West is awful. That is usually based solely on the fact that the PAC is so bad and they don't know much else. Eastern bias when it comes to basketball is always alive and well -- and I think that's reflected in the way these ratings are put together. How do you really rate the conferences from #18 on? Seems like a real crap shoot to me.
Other conferences have a marquee team that wins games. Gonzaga and Nevada lead their conferences and have national reputations. The WAC has two teams that are winning both at home and on the road -- UVU and New Mexico State (and Seattle has played well too). The Horizon league (#18), which I don't think would be any better than the Sky, has Northern Kentucky at 12-3 with some decent wins, the rest of the conference is pretty bad. Leaders pull the whole conference up. Based on preseason results, the Sky is leaderless.
Except for 3 teams, the Sky really isn't very good this year. Lots of leagues look the same, but they have that marquee team that at least grabs some attention. Did the Sky have one surprise win in the preseason (besides us beating the Y and then looking so bad after that)?
Much of the angst about Weber's yearly mundane preseason results gets reflected in conference rankings. We used to seem to build a little momentum from one season to the next, which I think is key to getting recognition (and higher than #16 seed) when trying to lead a small mid-major. Carry-over is huge and we seem to start from scratch every year.
As far as moving conferences ... is the Big West really (#22 BPI) that much better? The WAC (#16) has several good basketball teams this year, but what is the future of that conference? As Tal pointed out, who knows. I think all the conferences from 18 on are pretty fluid from year-to-year. Hopefully with some rebuilding teams, and new conference leadership, better days are ahead for the league.
In the meantime, I'm glad we're back home tonight!