TSN Prediction:
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No. 12 Weber State (10-3) at No. 5 Montana (12-1), 2:05 p.m.
You have to go all the way back to 1987 to find Weber State's last win over Montana in Missoula, as the Wildcats scored a 29-26 triumph over the Grizzlies. The Wildcats went on to tie Idaho for the league's top spot, though Big Sky Conference rules at the time gave Idaho the title, because of a 41-38 regular-season win against WSU.
But the Wildcats earned revenge, scoring a 59-30 win at Idaho in the first round of the playoffs. Weber State hopes the trend will be reversed in 2008, as the Wildcats look to become just the second team in Big Sky history to knock off Montana in the same season. The only the other school to accomplish that feat was Idaho, which defeated the Grizzlies twice in the postseason (1982 and 1988).
In the regular-season meeting in Ogden, UT. (Oct. 4), Weber State scored a resounding 45-28 win over Montana on a rain-soaked day to end a nine-game losing streak to the Grizzlies.
A versatile offense that averaged 429 yards per game (237 yards passing, 192 yards rushing), is led by quarterback and Payton Award candidate Cameron Higgins (286-of-425 passing, 4,207 yards, 36 TDs, 12 interceptions, 172.8 passing efficiency rating). Higgins connected on 21-of-30 throws for 237 yards, with four TDs and an interception in the win over the Grizzlies. Though Higgins has played a major role in one of the country's top offenses (fifth in FCS) this season, he's not alone in an offense that puts up an average of 461 yards per game.
The most versatile running back in the Big Sky over the past three seasons has been Trevyn Smith (1,228 yards, 17 TDs). He has not only led the Big Sky in rushing the past three years, he has been one of Higgins' favorite targets in the passing game (55 catches, 11.8 average, seven TDs). Smith was hard for Montana's defense to account for in the initial meeting, rushing for a game- high 158 yards and a TD, while catching four passes for 54 yards and a score to expose the Grizzlies' young defense in both areas. Marcus Mailei is one of the top fullbacks as a lead-blocker for Smith.
Not only do the Grizzlies have to account for Higgins and Smith, they also must deal with one of the best receiving corps' in the FCS. Leading the charge is wide receiver Tim Toone (77 catches, 18.6 average, 1,429 yards, seven TDs), who had a field day in WSU's 49-35 win at Cal Poly last week. Toone was able to haul in 10 passes for 199 yards and a TD for one of his best individual performances of the season.
Cody Nakamura (46 catches, 15.6 yards per catch, 716 yards, 10 TDs) is one of the nation's elite tight ends and like Toone, he was able to take advantage of a suspect Cal Poly secondary in last week's road triumph, catching passes for 34 yards and a TD. Nakamura also turned in a solid effort in the first meeting with Montana, catching three passes for 35 yards.
Mike Phillips (36 catches, 19.2 average, six TDs) and Bryant Eteuati (44 catches, 11.1 average, five TDs) are two other receiving options. Eteuati is also one the best returnmen in the country and sparked Weber State to a 28- point second-period outburst with a long kickoff return after the Wildcats had fallen behind 21-10. Eteuati averages 12.1 per punt return (17th in FCS) and 23.3 on kickoff returns, even though opposing teams try to play keep-away from him.
A major story of the first encounter between the Wildcats and Grizzlies was the play of the Weber State defense, especially in the second half. WSU sacked Montana signal-caller Cole Bergquist six times in the second half alone and seven times overall. Leading that staunch Weber State pass-rush is Kyle Linehan (72 tackles, 10.5 sacks).
Weber State's defense is buoyed by its secondary, which was able to contain Cal Poly's Ramses Barden for the most part in last week's win, holding the Payton Award candidate to six catches, 108 yards and two TDs. Cornerback Josh Morris was the primary coverman against the talented Barden. The rest of the Mustangs' passing game was rendered ineffective, holding the Mustangs to just 185 yards passing. The secondary is anchored by safety Beau Hadley (115 tackles, four interceptions) and Scott Goodloe (52 tackles, five interceptions), who had a fumble recovery in the first meeting.
No. 4 seeded Montana, which has won eight-straight games since its only loss of the season, is led by senior quarterback Cole Bergquist (2,634 yards, 25 TDs, seven interceptions). Bergquist struggled in the first meeting between the two clubs, completing 14-of-26 passes for 273 yards, with two TDs and two interceptions.
Bergquist's most-reliable options through the air have been Marc Mariani (57 receptions, 18.6 average, 1,058 yards, 10 TDs) and Mike Ferriter (45 catches, 787 yards, nine TDs, 17.5 average). Montana's running game was still gaining its footing when the teams first met back in early October. Since then, the Grizzlies have been paced on the ground by Chase Reynolds (1,228 yards, 17 TDs), and have fielded a successful ground game (176 yards per game). Reynolds was limited to 30 yards on 13 carries with one TD in the first game. Overall, the Grizzlies field an offense that averages 405 yards per game, 20th in FCS.
Montana brings an impressive defense into the rematch with the Wildcats (17 points per game, eighth in FCS in scoring defense). Leading the charge up front are defensive ends Jace Palmer (37 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks) and Mike Stadnyk (50 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks), while Tyler Corwin (87 tackles) is the team's top tackler. Buck Buchanan Award candidate Colt Anderson leads the Grizzlies in tackles, with 94 stops from his strong safety position. He has also produced five tackles for loss and intercepted two passes.
The Grizzlies have allowed just 68 points total and an average of 121 yards per game on the ground since losing to WSU and are 7-1 in quarterfinals in the past 16 years, losing only to McNeese State on the road in 2002, and are 23-6 all- time at home in postseason play.
Montana struggled early against Texas State in the first round of the playoffs, particularly on offense, but the Grizzlies persevered on defense to allow the team to recover from a 10-0 deficit for a 31-13 victory.
This game comes down to Montana's traditional dominance against Weber State's burgeoning confidence. The Grizzlies will need to keep the ball out of Higgins' hands with their running game and to ultimately score plenty of points. Montana must also avoid turnovers. Weber State has shown it can score, even against Montana's tough defense, but the Wildcats will need to play as well on both sides of the line as they did in the first win.
Weber State 35, Montana 28