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Sat: Weber State vs Montana Griz - Predictions

Weber 42
Montana 35

Weber goes up big and then rides out a huge win.

Any word if this game is going to be on an ESPN channel?
 
Da Griz said:
Back to normal:

Griz - 26
Cats - 14

14 points, back to normal, your UM haze is clouding your thinking. WSU will have 14 points before the end of the 2nd quarter, and probably before the 1st quarter. And if we hold the Griz to 26 points we will win.
 
TSN Prediction:
http://64.246.64.33/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4195723

No. 12 Weber State (10-3) at No. 5 Montana (12-1), 2:05 p.m.

You have to go all the way back to 1987 to find Weber State's last win over Montana in Missoula, as the Wildcats scored a 29-26 triumph over the Grizzlies. The Wildcats went on to tie Idaho for the league's top spot, though Big Sky Conference rules at the time gave Idaho the title, because of a 41-38 regular-season win against WSU.

But the Wildcats earned revenge, scoring a 59-30 win at Idaho in the first round of the playoffs. Weber State hopes the trend will be reversed in 2008, as the Wildcats look to become just the second team in Big Sky history to knock off Montana in the same season. The only the other school to accomplish that feat was Idaho, which defeated the Grizzlies twice in the postseason (1982 and 1988).

In the regular-season meeting in Ogden, UT. (Oct. 4), Weber State scored a resounding 45-28 win over Montana on a rain-soaked day to end a nine-game losing streak to the Grizzlies.

A versatile offense that averaged 429 yards per game (237 yards passing, 192 yards rushing), is led by quarterback and Payton Award candidate Cameron Higgins (286-of-425 passing, 4,207 yards, 36 TDs, 12 interceptions, 172.8 passing efficiency rating). Higgins connected on 21-of-30 throws for 237 yards, with four TDs and an interception in the win over the Grizzlies. Though Higgins has played a major role in one of the country's top offenses (fifth in FCS) this season, he's not alone in an offense that puts up an average of 461 yards per game.

The most versatile running back in the Big Sky over the past three seasons has been Trevyn Smith (1,228 yards, 17 TDs). He has not only led the Big Sky in rushing the past three years, he has been one of Higgins' favorite targets in the passing game (55 catches, 11.8 average, seven TDs). Smith was hard for Montana's defense to account for in the initial meeting, rushing for a game- high 158 yards and a TD, while catching four passes for 54 yards and a score to expose the Grizzlies' young defense in both areas. Marcus Mailei is one of the top fullbacks as a lead-blocker for Smith.

Not only do the Grizzlies have to account for Higgins and Smith, they also must deal with one of the best receiving corps' in the FCS. Leading the charge is wide receiver Tim Toone (77 catches, 18.6 average, 1,429 yards, seven TDs), who had a field day in WSU's 49-35 win at Cal Poly last week. Toone was able to haul in 10 passes for 199 yards and a TD for one of his best individual performances of the season.

Cody Nakamura (46 catches, 15.6 yards per catch, 716 yards, 10 TDs) is one of the nation's elite tight ends and like Toone, he was able to take advantage of a suspect Cal Poly secondary in last week's road triumph, catching passes for 34 yards and a TD. Nakamura also turned in a solid effort in the first meeting with Montana, catching three passes for 35 yards.

Mike Phillips (36 catches, 19.2 average, six TDs) and Bryant Eteuati (44 catches, 11.1 average, five TDs) are two other receiving options. Eteuati is also one the best returnmen in the country and sparked Weber State to a 28- point second-period outburst with a long kickoff return after the Wildcats had fallen behind 21-10. Eteuati averages 12.1 per punt return (17th in FCS) and 23.3 on kickoff returns, even though opposing teams try to play keep-away from him.

A major story of the first encounter between the Wildcats and Grizzlies was the play of the Weber State defense, especially in the second half. WSU sacked Montana signal-caller Cole Bergquist six times in the second half alone and seven times overall. Leading that staunch Weber State pass-rush is Kyle Linehan (72 tackles, 10.5 sacks).

Weber State's defense is buoyed by its secondary, which was able to contain Cal Poly's Ramses Barden for the most part in last week's win, holding the Payton Award candidate to six catches, 108 yards and two TDs. Cornerback Josh Morris was the primary coverman against the talented Barden. The rest of the Mustangs' passing game was rendered ineffective, holding the Mustangs to just 185 yards passing. The secondary is anchored by safety Beau Hadley (115 tackles, four interceptions) and Scott Goodloe (52 tackles, five interceptions), who had a fumble recovery in the first meeting.

No. 4 seeded Montana, which has won eight-straight games since its only loss of the season, is led by senior quarterback Cole Bergquist (2,634 yards, 25 TDs, seven interceptions). Bergquist struggled in the first meeting between the two clubs, completing 14-of-26 passes for 273 yards, with two TDs and two interceptions.

Bergquist's most-reliable options through the air have been Marc Mariani (57 receptions, 18.6 average, 1,058 yards, 10 TDs) and Mike Ferriter (45 catches, 787 yards, nine TDs, 17.5 average). Montana's running game was still gaining its footing when the teams first met back in early October. Since then, the Grizzlies have been paced on the ground by Chase Reynolds (1,228 yards, 17 TDs), and have fielded a successful ground game (176 yards per game). Reynolds was limited to 30 yards on 13 carries with one TD in the first game. Overall, the Grizzlies field an offense that averages 405 yards per game, 20th in FCS.

Montana brings an impressive defense into the rematch with the Wildcats (17 points per game, eighth in FCS in scoring defense). Leading the charge up front are defensive ends Jace Palmer (37 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks) and Mike Stadnyk (50 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks), while Tyler Corwin (87 tackles) is the team's top tackler. Buck Buchanan Award candidate Colt Anderson leads the Grizzlies in tackles, with 94 stops from his strong safety position. He has also produced five tackles for loss and intercepted two passes.

The Grizzlies have allowed just 68 points total and an average of 121 yards per game on the ground since losing to WSU and are 7-1 in quarterfinals in the past 16 years, losing only to McNeese State on the road in 2002, and are 23-6 all- time at home in postseason play.

Montana struggled early against Texas State in the first round of the playoffs, particularly on offense, but the Grizzlies persevered on defense to allow the team to recover from a 10-0 deficit for a 31-13 victory.

This game comes down to Montana's traditional dominance against Weber State's burgeoning confidence. The Grizzlies will need to keep the ball out of Higgins' hands with their running game and to ultimately score plenty of points. Montana must also avoid turnovers. Weber State has shown it can score, even against Montana's tough defense, but the Wildcats will need to play as well on both sides of the line as they did in the first win.

Weber State 35, Montana 28
 
wildkyle said:
you keep dreaming that montana beat weber earlier in the year
Check the stats - it's unusual for this kind of rematch to result in one team winning twice. Odds are also against you in Vegas and because it's here.

----------------------------

2:00 PM Playoff Quarterfinal: Weber State at Montana (TV: ESPN Gameplan PPV, internet streaming on ESPN360, where available, for free)

Montana’s Washington-Grizzly stadium, routinely packed during football season with more than 20,000 souls to cheer on their Griz, was built in 1986.

When the Weber State Wildcats first visited the stadium in 1987 they defeated the 3-3 Griz 29-26.

More than twenty years later, they’re still waiting for their second victory in the venerated FCS venue.

Forget for a moment that the Wildcats won the Big Sky conference and autobid this year, thanks to their 45-28 victory in Ogden, Utah. Forget for a moment that Weber State quarterback Cameron Higgins (4,207 yards passing, 38 TDs) could arguably be called the greatest pure passer in FCS right now (although, strangely, he’s not a Payton Award finalist). Forget the double-trouble that runningback Trevyn Smith (1,481 yards rushing, 27 TDs) and wideout Tim Toone (1,429 yards, 7 TDs) face for the Griz.

Forget the fact that they have the No. 1 passing offense in all of FCS. Paradoxically, while the Wildcats proved to be the better team during the regular season, Weber State needs to prove themselves all over again in the venue they haven’t been able to figure out in twenty years.

Some may not think it’s right - Montana’s achievement of a seed in the playoffs, and, therefore, a home game - even though Weber State was the better team during the regular season. But you won’t find anyone in the Missoula area that thinks so.

They’re too busy looking at their team - one that appeared to be rebuilding at the beginning of the year, with ten starters to replace on defense - and seeing they just may be able to get back to Chattanooga.

After the Weber State loss, it’s Montana’s offense that has emerged as a major factor in Griz success. Quarterback Cole Bergquist (2,634 yards passing, 32 TDs), runningback Chase Reynolds (1,228 yards rushing, 17 TDs) and wideout Marc Mariani (1,058 yards, 15 TDs) have emerged to allow the Grizzlies to put serious points on the board.

Montana head coach Bobby Hauck and Weber State head coach Ron McBride have been saying all the right things: that conference rematches in the FCS playoffs are rare, that the de-facto “Big Sky Championship Game” doesn’t affect game preparation, that the players don’t pay it any mind.

But it’s hard to escape the fact that Motnana’s home-field advantage is indeed a huge factor. The Grizzlies will bring their lunatic fans to the game - it will have an effect. And the Grizzlies development since early October will be evident too: with a point to prove in Big Sky conference superiority, Montana will ride their home field advantage to a hard-fought victory.

Montana 37, Weber St 35
 
Montana's advantage
Weber football: Grizzlies are a bear at home
Weber's next game will be at one of the nation's toughest stadiums

By Maggie Thach
The Salt Lake Tribune
Updated: 12/04/2008 08:51:10 AM MST

At the time, in 1986, there didn't seem to be much reason for Montana to build a new football stadium. The school was much better known for basketball than football, and the Grizzlies seldom filled their old football facility, Dornblaser Stadium.

But they built it. The fans came, and they continue to come.

Today, Montana boasts what may be the premier football program in the Football Championship Subdivision. The Grizzlies on the field have built a winning tradition that includes two national titles, a Big Sky Conference championship or co-championship in each of the last 11 seasons, and 16 straight playoff appearances.

With that winning tradition has evolved a large, passionate fan base - the stadium has been expanded three times since 1995 - that has turned Washington-Grizzly Stadium one of the loudest and most raucous stadiums in its division, if not all of college football.

For all those reasons, a trip to Missoula can be intimidating for opponents. For Weber State, which will play at Montana on Saturday in the second round of the FCS playoffs, it will at least match the loud,
intimidating atmosphere the Wildcats faced earlier this season in major college visits to Hawaii and Utah.

"It's a fun atmosphere, a fun environment," Weber State coach Ron McBride said. "I've been in a lot of loud stadiums, and that ranks up there."

A customary sellout crowd will be on hand when the Wildcats and Grizzlies kick off at noon. During the regular season, the Grizzlies averaged 24,891 fans a game at home, second only to Appalachian State (just over 28,000 per game) in the division.

With that kind of tradition and fan enthusiasm, the Grizzlies don't lose much at home, going 148-20 in the new stadium.

And Washington-Grizzly has an ambiance that is all its own.

Every section of the crowd has its own tradition. One section throws around Hostess Twinkies after touchdowns. One part counts off the number of false starts committed by the other team. One side of the stadium yells, "Montana" and the other yells, "Grizzlies." Everybody yells "Montana" after the the public address announcer declares a Grizzly first down.

And the fans are close to the field. So close that the noise level can be deafening.

When Weber State athletic director Jerry Graybeal was coaching at Eastern Washington, the offensive linemen would hold hands on passing plays. When the ball was snapped, a guard would let go, signaling to the others that the play had begun. It was the best form of communication when conventional quarterback signals were drowned out.

"The noise level is a factor and it can create problems for communicating," Graybeal said. "I don't think opposing players get intimidated. They feed off of it."

WSU senior receiver Bryant Eteuati remembers his first trip to Missoula and loved playing in front of that many fans, even if they were cheering against him. "That's the closest you're going to get to USC or Florida in this division," Eteuati said. "I thought to myself, 'This is the big time.' "
 

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