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Sorting out Big Sky Tournament

P

Pounder

Active member
Your help is requested here. First off, heck of a conference here.

Weber State !* 13-5 (hosting conference tournament)
North Dakota 11-7
Montana 10-7
Northern Colorado 10-8
Northern Arizona 10-8
Montana State 9-8
Portland State 9-9
Eastern Washington 9-9
Sacramento State 9-9
Idaho State 8-10
Southern Utah 0-18

MONDAY, Montana State @ Montana. Montana won in Bozeman. I'd never put money on rivalry games, but I'd think Montana wins, correct?

TUESDAY, Northern Colorado @ North Dakota. UNC plastered UND in Greeley, but UNC's wheels have fallen off. North Dakota, no?

THURSDAY:
North Dakota @ Southern Utah. Trap game with a wicked travel component? Maybe, still UND.
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington. ISU spanked the Eagles in Pocatello; otherwise it's impossible to read on form here. When in doubt in the Big Sky, pick home team.
Montana State @ Northern Arizona. NAU just followed up a crap home weekend with a killer road swing in Poky and Ogden. Montana State barely beat Southern Utah at home, are not on form, and will have been 3 days out of their game in Missoula. The Bobcats barely beat NAU early in the season in Bozeman. Everything except my sudden surge of spidey sense says NAU here. I'm not Spiderman.
Montana @ Sacramento State. Sacramento's only home conference loss this year was against PSU. Thing is, it's Montana. However, it's not football. Plenty of reason to hedge here, but I'm thinking Sac.
Weber State @ Portland State. Weber comes to Portland rather pissed off, but they've already clinched tournament host. PSU needs to win. This could be ugly, or it could be a close PSU victory. Home team rule applies here.

If this goes according to my uneducated guesswork, the conference enters the last Saturday looking like this:

Weber State 13-6
North Dakota 13-7
Montana 11-8
Northern Arizona 11-8
Northern Colorado 10-9
Portland State 10-9
Eastern Washington 10-9
Sacramento State 10-9
Montana State 9-10
Idaho State 8-11 and out
Southern Utah 0-and-ouch

SATURDAY
Weber State @ Eastern Washington.
Northern Colorado @ Southern Utah
Montana State @ Sacramento State
Montana @ Northern Arizona
Idaho State @ Portland State

Probably Weber, UNC, Sac, NAU, and PSU, no? Am I dumb for picking Montana to go 1-2 this week?

Since my gut says 6 other teams will have at least 11 conference wins, I think Portland State has to win out this coming weekend to be the 7th and play in Ogden. It's doable, too. Of course, if EWU is the tie-up, maybe 10 would work?
 
I was looking at the log jam to make the BSC tourney last night and it made my head spin.

The first thing that came to mind is that if the replay system was working in Missoula on Feb 6th, and we didn't run the worst offensive play with under ten seconds to go against NAU on Feb 13th, we'd be 11-7 and just talking about our potential BSC matchups in Ogden. Something about if's and but's being candy and nuts would apply here.

I see UM and UND winning on Monday/Tuesday setting up what you outlined on Thursday. Four teams at 9-9 fighting for the last two spots. However, an MSU win with have three teams at 10-8, and three at 9-9 with presumably the last five spots. :-|

Beating Weber at home on Thursday is possible, but that little munchkin Randy Rahe seems to have our number as of late. However, we also just took 3 of 4 on the road which is very difficult in the BSC. I would love to see a packed house which really gives us an advantage, but 14-13 (9-9), I don't see that happening. I hope I'm wrong.

Hopefully we can just go 2-0 this week and punch our own ticket.

It's starting to feel like March. :-)
 
Looks like UM eekk'd out a win tonight, so there's four 9-9 teams set for Thursday play, with UNC/UND going tomorrow night.
 
The only games I got wrong: Montana did batter Sac State, and Southern Utah had the pride to not go 0-fer.

BTW, sweet at Stott tonight!

Weber State !* 13-6
Montana 12-7
North Dakota 12-8
Northern Arizona 11-8
Northern Colorado 10-9
Portland State 10-9
Eastern Washington 10-9
Montana State 9-10
Sacramento State 9-10
Idaho State 8-11
Southern Utah 1-18

Weber is obviously the 1 seed.

Montana is at Northern Arizona.
- If Montana wins, Montana is 2nd, UND is 3rd, NAU depends on who else is at 11 wins.
- If NAU wins, UND 2, NAU 3, UM 4.

Montana State is at Sacramento State. Loser, along with Idaho State and Southern Utah, is out.

Weber State @ Eastern Washington.
Northern Colorado @ Southern Utah
Idaho State @ Portland State

Let's say PSU, UM, UNC, and EWU win. PSU is in, of course. All 4 would have 11 wins.
PSU 4-2
NAU 3-3
EWU 3-3
UNC 2-4

PSU would be the 4th seed. NAU would be 5th because they swept PSU (of all tiebreakers, it goes down that far) and therefore be the road team against PSU. Juicy, no?

I thought about if PSU loses, but that's a mess. They'd really need Sac State to beat Montana State for starters (not to mention hoping either UNC or EWU lose), and then it depends on who finishes where above both teams. Let's hope it doesn't go there.
 
This is pretty neat:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/bigskybasketball/bigskystandings.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
martymoose said:
With the scores today, am I correct that if we win tonight we'll host a BSC tourney game?
Click to expand...

It's all in Ogden.

http://bigskyconf.com/sports/2008/6/13/MBB09CHAMP.aspx?tab=men%E2%80%99sbasketball" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Because NAU won, PSU will not be a "home team" in the first round. If PSU wins, 5-seed.

Just did the math. I think Montana State can't get in and Portland State can't be eliminated, if I have the tiebreakers correct. Unofficial:

(If) Sac and PSU win: PSU 5th, UNC 6th, Sac 7th (PSU swept UNC, Sac did better against Weber than EWU))

MSU and ISU: UNC 5th, PSU 6th, EWU 7th (3-way tie for 6th-8th, all 2-2, PSU did better against Weber, EWU swept MSU)

MSU and PSU: PSU 5th, UNC 6th, EWU 7th (PSU swept UNC, EWU swept MSU)

Sac and ISU: UNC 5th, PSU 6th, Sac 7th (3-way tie for 6th-8th, PSU went 3-1 against EWU and Sac, Sac and EWU split, Sac did better against Weber than EWU)

So PSU is in and MSU is out. EWU is rooting for Montana State. Sac should want to win for their own reasons.

(PSU plays Montana if 5th, NAU if 6th)
 
My bad.

Looks like it'll be Montana.



Pounder said:
martymoose said:
With the scores today, am I correct that if we win tonight we'll host a BSC tourney game?
Click to expand...

It's all in Ogden.

http://bigskyconf.com/sports/2008/6/13/MBB09CHAMP.aspx?tab=men%E2%80%99sbasketball" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Because NAU won, PSU will not be a "home team" in the first round. If PSU wins, 5-seed.

Just did the math. I think Montana State can't get in and Portland State can't be eliminated, if I have the tiebreakers correct. Unofficial:

(If) Sac and PSU win: PSU 5th, UNC 6th, Sac 7th (PSU swept UNC, Sac did better against Weber than EWU))

MSU and ISU: UNC 5th, PSU 6th, EWU 7th (3-way tie for 6th-8th, all 2-2, PSU did better against Weber, EWU swept MSU)

MSU and PSU: PSU 5th, UNC 6th, EWU 7th (PSU swept UNC, EWU swept MSU)

Sac and ISU: UNC 5th, PSU 6th, Sac 7th (3-way tie for 6th-8th, PSU went 3-1 against EWU and Sac, Sac and EWU split, Sac did better against Weber than EWU)

So PSU is in and MSU is out. EWU is rooting for Montana State. Sac should want to win for their own reasons.

(PSU plays Montana if 5th, NAU if 6th)
Click to expand...
 
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