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In the FCS Huddle: Will the bubble burst on your team?
By Craig Haley, FCS Executive Director
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - If the bubble burst on your favorite Football Championship Subdivision team on Saturday, sorry about the mess.
Clean up is in Aisle 21, located just outside the 20-team playoff field.
Saturday's action KO'd the hopes of some teams, but others moved into the picture with one week of remaining action, so it's hardly clear at this point.
The FCS playoff field will be announced next Sunday during a 30-minute selection show on ESPNU, beginning at 10 a.m. EST.
Let's try to bring some clarity to this wild season:
10 Automatic Qualifiers
Big Sky: Montana State (8-2) or Eastern Washington (8-2). Whoever doesn't earn the conference's automatic bid expects to get an at-large bid.
Big South: Stony Brook (6-4), Liberty (7-3) or Coastal Carolina (5-5). Stony Brook is 5-0 in conference play and has a one-game lead over both Liberty, which it will visit next Saturday, and Coastal Carolina, which will host Charleston Southern. If there's a two-way tie for first place, it can only be between Stony Brook and Liberty, and that would mean Liberty won the head-to- head meeting to secure the auto bid. If there's a three-way tie, then it's expected to go to a fourth tie-breaker - points allowed in conference games - and Stony Brook has a big lead in that category.
CAA Football: Delaware (9-1) will earn the auto bid with a win over Villanova or a William & Mary loss to Richmond. William & Mary (7-3) would earn the auto bid with a win and a Delaware loss.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: Bethune-Cookman (10-0) is in great shape with a 7-0 record in conference games and a one-game lead over Florida A&M (7-3) and South Carolina State (8-2). The Wildcats will get the auto bid with a win over Florida A&M at the Florida Classic in Orlando. If they lose, they would still get the bid if there's a three-way tie for the title because they own that tie-breaker (a points system for the strength of non-conference wins). If there's a two-way tie for the title for first place, that would mean South Carolina State has been upset by North Carolina A&T, and Florida A&M would hold the head-to-head tie-breaker with Bethune-Cookman.
Missouri Valley Football Conference: Northern Iowa (7-3) has clinched the auto bid.
Northeast Conference: Robert Morris (8-2) has clinched the auto bid.
Ohio Valley Conference: Jacksonville State (9-1) or Southeast Missouri State (9-2). Separated by two points this past Saturday, Jacksonville State will get the auto bid with a win at Tennessee State. SEMO will get the bid if the Gamecocks lose their final regular-season game. Either way, the second-place team expects to get an at-large bid.
Patriot League: Lehigh (8-2) has clinched the auto bid.
Southern Conference: Appalachian State (9-1) has clinched the auto bid.
Southland Conference: Stephen F. Austin (8-2) will get the auto bid with a home win over Northwestern State. McNeese State (6-4) is tied for first place, but lost to Stephen F. Austin, so it needs to win at Central Arkansas and have the Lumberjacks lose to Northwestern State.
10 At-Large Bids
If you figure Montana State or Eastern Washington from the Big Sky, and Jacksonville State or Southeast Missouri State from the OVC will get at-large bids, then that's two of the 10 at-large bids. William & Mary, despite its tumble on Saturday as No. 1 in the nation, has a strong enough resume even with a loss to Richmond, which is trying to play its way into the field. It's pretty much the same for Wofford, which is facing a Chattanooga squad that is trying to force itself into the field. We're assuming Stephen F. Austin earns an auto bid, so that puts us at 14 overall selections.
That would leave six spots for nine teams that believe they are in with a win next Saturday: Villanova (6-4), the defending national champion which has to go to soon-to-be No. 1 Delaware; Montana (7-3), which faces a difficult home game against Montana State; North Dakota State (7-3), which visits Missouri State; New Hampshire (6-4), which hosts Towson; Massachusetts (6-4), which visits Rhode Island; Western Illinois (6-4), which hosts Northern Iowa; Richmond (6-4), which visits William & Mary; Georgia Southern (6-4), which visits Furman; and Chattanooga (6-4), which visits Wofford.
It's asking a lot for all nine of those teams to win next Saturday, so losses by more than three of them could open up the picture for the following teams with flaws on their resume:
Liberty, Jacksonville (10-1), Dayton (10-1), McNeese State (6-4) and South Carolina State (8-2), whose strength of schedule are weaker than the teams who are in with a win.
Sacramento State (6-4), which has to beat UC Davis and hope that only six Division I wins is enough.
Central Arkansas (6-4), which, with a victory over McNeese State, would only have six Division I wins.
Cal Poly (7-4), which has only six Division I wins and seemingly has fallen out of the picture with a loss to UC Davis on Saturday
Jacksonville and McNeese State probably stand the best chance of this next group. But if Florida A&M wins the MEAC auto bid, would Bethune-Cookman, at 10-1, make the field? A MEAC team hasn't won a playoff game since 1999, so it might be tough for the conference to get two bids.
No team with more than four losses has received an at-large bid, so if teams like Villanova, Richmond, UMass, New Hampshire, Western Illinois, Georgia Southern and Chattanooga lose next Saturday, the decisions on final spots will be particularly tight.
By Craig Haley, FCS Executive Director
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - If the bubble burst on your favorite Football Championship Subdivision team on Saturday, sorry about the mess.
Clean up is in Aisle 21, located just outside the 20-team playoff field.
Saturday's action KO'd the hopes of some teams, but others moved into the picture with one week of remaining action, so it's hardly clear at this point.
The FCS playoff field will be announced next Sunday during a 30-minute selection show on ESPNU, beginning at 10 a.m. EST.
Let's try to bring some clarity to this wild season:
10 Automatic Qualifiers
Big Sky: Montana State (8-2) or Eastern Washington (8-2). Whoever doesn't earn the conference's automatic bid expects to get an at-large bid.
Big South: Stony Brook (6-4), Liberty (7-3) or Coastal Carolina (5-5). Stony Brook is 5-0 in conference play and has a one-game lead over both Liberty, which it will visit next Saturday, and Coastal Carolina, which will host Charleston Southern. If there's a two-way tie for first place, it can only be between Stony Brook and Liberty, and that would mean Liberty won the head-to- head meeting to secure the auto bid. If there's a three-way tie, then it's expected to go to a fourth tie-breaker - points allowed in conference games - and Stony Brook has a big lead in that category.
CAA Football: Delaware (9-1) will earn the auto bid with a win over Villanova or a William & Mary loss to Richmond. William & Mary (7-3) would earn the auto bid with a win and a Delaware loss.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference: Bethune-Cookman (10-0) is in great shape with a 7-0 record in conference games and a one-game lead over Florida A&M (7-3) and South Carolina State (8-2). The Wildcats will get the auto bid with a win over Florida A&M at the Florida Classic in Orlando. If they lose, they would still get the bid if there's a three-way tie for the title because they own that tie-breaker (a points system for the strength of non-conference wins). If there's a two-way tie for the title for first place, that would mean South Carolina State has been upset by North Carolina A&T, and Florida A&M would hold the head-to-head tie-breaker with Bethune-Cookman.
Missouri Valley Football Conference: Northern Iowa (7-3) has clinched the auto bid.
Northeast Conference: Robert Morris (8-2) has clinched the auto bid.
Ohio Valley Conference: Jacksonville State (9-1) or Southeast Missouri State (9-2). Separated by two points this past Saturday, Jacksonville State will get the auto bid with a win at Tennessee State. SEMO will get the bid if the Gamecocks lose their final regular-season game. Either way, the second-place team expects to get an at-large bid.
Patriot League: Lehigh (8-2) has clinched the auto bid.
Southern Conference: Appalachian State (9-1) has clinched the auto bid.
Southland Conference: Stephen F. Austin (8-2) will get the auto bid with a home win over Northwestern State. McNeese State (6-4) is tied for first place, but lost to Stephen F. Austin, so it needs to win at Central Arkansas and have the Lumberjacks lose to Northwestern State.
10 At-Large Bids
If you figure Montana State or Eastern Washington from the Big Sky, and Jacksonville State or Southeast Missouri State from the OVC will get at-large bids, then that's two of the 10 at-large bids. William & Mary, despite its tumble on Saturday as No. 1 in the nation, has a strong enough resume even with a loss to Richmond, which is trying to play its way into the field. It's pretty much the same for Wofford, which is facing a Chattanooga squad that is trying to force itself into the field. We're assuming Stephen F. Austin earns an auto bid, so that puts us at 14 overall selections.
That would leave six spots for nine teams that believe they are in with a win next Saturday: Villanova (6-4), the defending national champion which has to go to soon-to-be No. 1 Delaware; Montana (7-3), which faces a difficult home game against Montana State; North Dakota State (7-3), which visits Missouri State; New Hampshire (6-4), which hosts Towson; Massachusetts (6-4), which visits Rhode Island; Western Illinois (6-4), which hosts Northern Iowa; Richmond (6-4), which visits William & Mary; Georgia Southern (6-4), which visits Furman; and Chattanooga (6-4), which visits Wofford.
It's asking a lot for all nine of those teams to win next Saturday, so losses by more than three of them could open up the picture for the following teams with flaws on their resume:
Liberty, Jacksonville (10-1), Dayton (10-1), McNeese State (6-4) and South Carolina State (8-2), whose strength of schedule are weaker than the teams who are in with a win.
Sacramento State (6-4), which has to beat UC Davis and hope that only six Division I wins is enough.
Central Arkansas (6-4), which, with a victory over McNeese State, would only have six Division I wins.
Cal Poly (7-4), which has only six Division I wins and seemingly has fallen out of the picture with a loss to UC Davis on Saturday
Jacksonville and McNeese State probably stand the best chance of this next group. But if Florida A&M wins the MEAC auto bid, would Bethune-Cookman, at 10-1, make the field? A MEAC team hasn't won a playoff game since 1999, so it might be tough for the conference to get two bids.
No team with more than four losses has received an at-large bid, so if teams like Villanova, Richmond, UMass, New Hampshire, Western Illinois, Georgia Southern and Chattanooga lose next Saturday, the decisions on final spots will be particularly tight.
