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Week 11 - Sac State at #2 Montana State

SDHornet

SDHornet

Moderator
Staff member
Week 11 - Sac State at #2 Montana State

The Hornets (3-6, 1-4 BSC) head to Bozeman to face the 2nd ranked Montana State Bobcats (9-0, 5-0 BSC). The Bobcats are having a stellar season and are looking to make amends from last season with a BSC Title and deep run in the playoffs under 4th year Head Coach Brent Vigen. This ‘24 season for MSU is very reminiscent of the Hornets ‘22 season by its week to week domination.

It’s FCS Championship or bust for the Bobcats who opened the season with a week 1 come from behind 35-31 win at FBS New Mexico that featured 21 4th quarter points. MSU hasn’t looked back since and have outscored opponents 375 to 158 on the year. The most notable win aside from their FBS win over UNM is a week 8 thrashing of 7th ranked Idaho, 38-7. Last week, Eastern Washington kept the game close late in the 3rd quarter until the Bobcats put it away with a couple of scores for a 42-28 victory.

The Bobcat offense has a lot of weapons at their disposal. MSU runs the ball about 66% of the time in their read option attack. Quarterback Tommy Mellott (118/170, 1623 yds, 19 TD, 1 INT, 55 car, 546 yds, 8 TD) can do it all and his efficiency is off the charts. Alongside Mellott in the backfield are running backs Scottre Humphrey (146 car, 1062 yds, 12 TD) and Adam Jones (84 car, 518 yds, 6 TD, 12 rec, 136 yds, 1 TD), both of whom are big playmakers. When the Bobcats do throw the ball, it is distributed pretty evenly amongst their receivers. Rohan Jones (21 rec, 339 yds, 6 TD) leads the receivers in production, but Taco Dowler (18 rec, 298 yds, 6 TD) and Ty McCullouch (22 rec, 290 yds, 3 TD) also have big play potential. For MSU’s offense, it all starts up front and this is one of the best offensive lines in the BSC, if not the FCS.

Offensive Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 41.7 (1st BSC / 1st FCS)
  • Total Offense: 510.2 ypg (310.8 rushing ypg / 199.4 passing ypg) - 1st (1st / 10th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 8 (2nd BSC)
  • Turnovers: 1/6 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 38/40 - 31/7 (TD/FG) - 1st BSC
MSU’s 4-2-5 defense has been dominant this entire season and leads a lot of the statistical categories in the BSC. They are very aggressive and physical up front and lead the BSC in scoring defense. There’s not much to say about this defense other than they have taken care of business every week. Linebacker McCade O’Reilly (50 tkl, 6.5 TFL, 2 sac) lead the defense in tackles and defensive end Brody Grebe (24 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 6 sac) has been a wrecking ball on the defensive line. The MSU secondary is also well rounded with strong safety Rylan Ortt (39 tkl, 1 TFL, 1 INT) leading the unit.

Defensive Team Stats
  • Points allowed per game: 17.6 (1st BSC / 9th FCS)
  • Total Defense: 293.2 ypg (115.0 rushing ypg / 115.7 passing ypg) - 1st (1st / 2nd) BSC
  • Sacks: 16 (T-5th BSC)
  • Turnovers Forced: 6/5 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 17/21 - 14/3 (TD/FG) - 3rd BSC
MSU found a kicker this season as Myles Sansted (9/12 FG, 48/49 PAT) had been solid this season. Sansted has a long of 45 this season. Punter Brendan Hall (20 pnt, 45.3 ypp) has 6 punts of over 50 yards and has dropped 12 punts inside the 20. MSU has a couple of kick returners that average over 20 yards a return.

Hornet Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 31.3 (5th BSC / 27th FCS)
  • Points allowed per game: 33.3 (3rd BSC / 103rd FCS)
  • Total Offense: 423.2 ypg (165.5 rushing ypg / 258.2 passing ypg) - 4th (7th / 3rd) BSC
  • Total Defense: 396.4 ypg (152.4 rushing ypg / 244.0 passing ypg) - 7th (7th / 9th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 9 (T-3rd BSC)
  • Sacks: 22 (1st BSC)
  • Turnovers: 11/9 (INT/Fum)
  • Turnovers Forced: 9/8 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone Offense: 34/41 - 25/9 (TD/FG) - 8th BSC
  • Red Zone Defense: 27/36 - 21/6 (TD/FG) - 1st BSC
Position Advantage
  • Quarterback: Bobcats. Tommy Mellot is a complete quarterback on the ground and through the air whereas Carson Conklin is still early in his development.
  • Running Backs: Bobcats. Even if Elijah Tau-Tolliver plays, Scottre Humphrey will be the best running back on the field.
  • Wide Receivers: Hornets. The Hornet offense is more beneficial to the receivers, but Jared Gipson and Anderson Grover have the edge over Rohan Jones and Taco Dowler.
  • Tight Ends: Hornets. Coleman Kuntz plays a bigger role in the Hornet offense compared to Ryan Lonergan. The edge goes to MSU if Kuntz is unable to play this week.
  • Offensive Line: Bobcats. The Bobcat offensive line has been dominant this season, the Hornets offensive line has held up well considering the health issues encountered.
  • Defensive Line: Bobcats. The MSU defensive line has been more consistent throughout the year compared to the Hornets and does a better job at getting after the quarterback.
  • Linebackers: Hornets. Will Leota and Nakian Jackson make more plays and get to the ball more than McCade O’Reilly and Bryce Grebe.
  • Defensive Backs: Bobcats. The Hornet secondary is an absolute disaster, not many secondaries are worse than the Hornets, and MSU certainly isn’t.
  • Punters: Bobcats. Brendan Hall has been more effective in his limited amount of punts compared to Cal McGough.
  • Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schreiner has been more accurate and has hit from farther out compared to Myles Sansted.
  • Kick Returners: Push. Pedestrian return numbers by both teams.
This game shouldn’t be close as the Bobcats are a much better and more complete team compared to the Hornets. Defensively, the Hornets have no chance at stopping the MSU offense. The Hornets may be able to take away a player or two, but the Bobcats just have too many playmakers for the Hornets to keep tabs on all game. The Bobcats should have a big day on offense, especially considering how poorly the Hornets handled a dual threat quarterback just a week ago.

Offensively, we’ll see if Carson Conklin can be effective against a competent defense. Conklin and the Hornet offense struggled at NAU (statistically 2nd best defense in the BSC) in week 5, and we could see similar struggles in another hostile environment against a stout defense. This game will be a true measuring stick as to how far Conklin has come this season. I am hopeful that the Hornets will see some success, however with ETT and Kuntz questionable for this game the Hornets will need other players to step up. The key will be the play calling and if Coach Fresques can put these players in a position to be successful. Given what we have seen these past few weeks on the offensive side, I am optimistic that the Hornets will be able to move the ball this week.

Special teams seem like a bit of a push, however the Hornet kick coverage team has struggled the past few weeks.

Hornets will lose big this week as MSU is a clear cut above everyone in FCS this season.

Stingers Up!

MSU at EWU Highlights:
 
SDHornet said:
Week 11 - Sac State at #2 Montana State

The Hornets (3-6, 1-4 BSC) head to Bozeman to face the 2nd ranked Montana State Bobcats (9-0, 5-0 BSC). The Bobcats are having a stellar season and are looking to make amends from last season with a BSC Title and deep run in the playoffs under 4th year Head Coach Brent Vigen. This ‘24 season for MSU is very reminiscent of the Hornets ‘22 season by its week to week domination.

It’s FCS Championship or bust for the Bobcats who opened the season with a week 1 come from behind 35-31 win at FBS New Mexico that featured 21 4th quarter points. MSU hasn’t looked back since and have outscored opponents 375 to 158 on the year. The most notable win aside from their FBS win over UNM is a week 8 thrashing of 7th ranked Idaho, 38-7. Last week, Eastern Washington kept the game close late in the 3rd quarter until the Bobcats put it away with a couple of scores for a 42-28 victory.

The Bobcat offense has a lot of weapons at their disposal. MSU runs the ball about 66% of the time in their read option attack. Quarterback Tommy Mellott (118/170, 1623 yds, 19 TD, 1 INT, 55 car, 546 yds, 8 TD) can do it all and his efficiency is off the charts. Alongside Mellott in the backfield are running backs Scottre Humphrey (146 car, 1062 yds, 12 TD) and Adam Jones (84 car, 518 yds, 6 TD, 12 rec, 136 yds, 1 TD), both of whom are big playmakers. When the Bobcats do throw the ball, it is distributed pretty evenly amongst their receivers. Rohan Jones (21 rec, 339 yds, 6 TD) leads the receivers in production, but Taco Dowler (18 rec, 298 yds, 6 TD) and Ty McCullouch (22 rec, 290 yds, 3 TD) also have big play potential. For MSU’s offense, it all starts up front and this is one of the best offensive lines in the BSC, if not the FCS.

Offensive Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 41.7 (1st BSC / 1st FCS)
  • Total Offense: 510.2 ypg (310.8 rushing ypg / 199.4 passing ypg) - 1st (1st / 10th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 8 (2nd BSC)
  • Turnovers: 1/6 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 38/40 - 31/7 (TD/FG) - 1st BSC
MSU’s 4-2-5 defense has been dominant this entire season and leads a lot of the statistical categories in the BSC. They are very aggressive and physical up front and lead the BSC in scoring defense. There’s not much to say about this defense other than they have taken care of business every week. Linebacker McCade O’Reilly (50 tkl, 6.5 TFL, 2 sac) lead the defense in tackles and defensive end Brody Grebe (24 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 6 sac) has been a wrecking ball on the defensive line. The MSU secondary is also well rounded with strong safety Rylan Ortt (39 tkl, 1 TFL, 1 INT) leading the unit.

Defensive Team Stats
  • Points allowed per game: 17.6 (1st BSC / 9th FCS)
  • Total Defense: 293.2 ypg (115.0 rushing ypg / 115.7 passing ypg) - 1st (1st / 2nd) BSC
  • Sacks: 16 (T-5th BSC)
  • Turnovers Forced: 6/5 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone: 17/21 - 14/3 (TD/FG) - 3rd BSC
MSU found a kicker this season as Myles Sansted (9/12 FG, 48/49 PAT) had been solid this season. Sansted has a long of 45 this season. Punter Brendan Hall (20 pnt, 45.3 ypp) has 6 punts of over 50 yards and has dropped 12 punts inside the 20. MSU has a couple of kick returners that average over 20 yards a return.

Hornet Team Stats
  • Points scored per game: 31.3 (5th BSC / 27th FCS)
  • Points allowed per game: 33.3 (3rd BSC / 103rd FCS)
  • Total Offense: 423.2 ypg (165.5 rushing ypg / 258.2 passing ypg) - 4th (7th / 3rd) BSC
  • Total Defense: 396.4 ypg (152.4 rushing ypg / 244.0 passing ypg) - 7th (7th / 9th) BSC
  • Sacks Allowed: 9 (T-3rd BSC)
  • Sacks: 22 (1st BSC)
  • Turnovers: 11/9 (INT/Fum)
  • Turnovers Forced: 9/8 (INT/Fum)
  • Red Zone Offense: 34/41 - 25/9 (TD/FG) - 8th BSC
  • Red Zone Defense: 27/36 - 21/6 (TD/FG) - 1st BSC
Position Advantage
  • Quarterback: Bobcats. Tommy Mellot is a complete quarterback on the ground and through the air whereas Carson Conklin is still early in his development.
  • Running Backs: Bobcats. Even if Elijah Tau-Tolliver plays, Scottre Humphrey will be the best running back on the field.
  • Wide Receivers: Hornets. The Hornet offense is more beneficial to the receivers, but Jared Gipson and Anderson Grover have the edge over Rohan Jones and Taco Dowler.
  • Tight Ends: Hornets. Coleman Kuntz plays a bigger role in the Hornet offense compared to Ryan Lonergan. The edge goes to MSU if Kuntz is unable to play this week.
  • Offensive Line: Bobcats. The Bobcat offensive line has been dominant this season, the Hornets offensive line has held up well considering the health issues encountered.
  • Defensive Line: Bobcats. The MSU defensive line has been more consistent throughout the year compared to the Hornets and does a better job at getting after the quarterback.
  • Linebackers: Hornets. Will Leota and Nakian Jackson make more plays and get to the ball more than McCade O’Reilly and Bryce Grebe.
  • Defensive Backs: Bobcats. The Hornet secondary is an absolute disaster, not many secondaries are worse than the Hornets, and MSU certainly isn’t.
  • Punters: Bobcats. Brendan Hall has been more effective in his limited amount of punts compared to Cal McGough.
  • Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schreiner has been more accurate and has hit from farther out compared to Myles Sansted.
  • Kick Returners: Push. Pedestrian return numbers by both teams.
This game shouldn’t be close as the Bobcats are a much better and more complete team compared to the Hornets. Defensively, the Hornets have no chance at stopping the MSU offense. The Hornets may be able to take away a player or two, but the Bobcats just have too many playmakers for the Hornets to keep tabs on all game. The Bobcats should have a big day on offense, especially considering how poorly the Hornets handled a dual threat quarterback just a week ago.

Offensively, we’ll see if Carson Conklin can be effective against a competent defense. Conklin and the Hornet offense struggled at NAU (statistically 2nd best defense in the BSC) in week 5, and we could see similar struggles in another hostile environment against a stout defense. This game will be a true measuring stick as to how far Conklin has come this season. I am hopeful that the Hornets will see some success, however with ETT and Kuntz questionable for this game the Hornets will need other players to step up. The key will be the play calling and if Coach Fresques can put these players in a position to be successful. Given what we have seen these past few weeks on the offensive side, I am optimistic that the Hornets will be able to move the ball this week.

Special teams seem like a bit of a push, however the Hornet kick coverage team has struggled the past few weeks.

Hornets will lose big this week as MSU is a clear cut above everyone in FCS this season.

Stingers Up!

MSU at EWU Highlights:
Click to expand...
Being real, I posted on Twitter when they announced they were heading to Montana, try to hold MSU to under 80 points.

I am pretty confident that we will have this staff back for one more year, I do not think we cut and run since last year was a playoff year.
 
The defense has always been bad in terms points given up. Now we can’t score as well. We won’t have another winning season without adding running threat at QB or different scheme/coaching
 
Wonder how HC AT feels about he and his coaching staffs ability to keep this program on track?

We are being outclassed. Talent. We should have great talent compared to any other BigSky Team.

I saw HC / AT speak to somebody on sideline. Reading lips. Looked like. “Not sure what else to do?” Early 3rd quarter.

Down by 42 points…
 
Phantom Hornet said:
I can’t believe people watch this team and think this coaching staff is worthy of another year.
Click to expand...
I’m a Hornet Fan win or lose. The coaching staff is responsible for 100% of the teams success or lack of.

I still watch even with the frustration of seeing our team get beaten on the field.

I don’t know the contracts that are in effect with this staff. If I were AD I would wait for season finish.

But for research I’d be seeing who is available? Just in case..,

Tough scenario to take over a winning program. If you cannot maintain an inherited winning program it is not good.

I’m wondering if the players have lost confidence in the staff? That would tell us a ton.
 
Coach Thompson and Coach Fresques should get another year. Everyone needs to calm down with the firing talk. Now there should probably be some changes to the staff, but we'll see how that all shakes out in the coming weeks.
 
7-49 Hornet loss. Not an unexpected result, but what was unexpected was the lack of effort on the defensive side of the ball. The Hornet defense was never going to stop this prolific MSU offense, but seeing the starters quit after the first quarter was disheartening.

The other side of the ball didn’t fare much better. The Hornets had two strong drives in the first quarter that stalled on the MSU side of the field. The offense then went quiet and didn’t do much as Coach Fresques failed to countered MSU’s defensive adjustments. The game plan didn’t involve the running game much so it was all on Carson Conklin (12/37, 138 yds, 1 INT) to shoulder the offense.

Special teams had the only thing resembling a bright spot on the day with the punt coverage doing a very good job with covering the long punts with the first cover man getting the tackle almost every time.

Here are my takeaways from the game:
  • Poor tackling on defense. Lots of poor angles and poor effort on open field attempts, mostly by the secondary.
  • I don’t recall seeing Nakian Jackson on the field and the drop off in talent and ability at linebacker was noticeable with Derek Houston on the field. Houston was terrible on his reads and late to contain the edge. There were countless plays with him a step behind the ball carrier coming around the edge flailing in hopes of making a shoestring tackle. As bad as the overall defensive effort was, Houston’s stuck out the most.
  • At least this week the coaches had sense enough to play a lot of younger players on both sides of the ball. Lots of numbers I didn’t recognize on the defensive side of the ball in the 2nd half and the 4th quarter were mostly reserve players for the offense. This should have been the case last week.
  • Conklin came out of the gates looking confident and capable. The efficiency tailed off and he made a few bad decisions, most of which were under duress. Worst throw of the game was a bad decision on a red zone interception at the end of the 1st half. Conklin also missed on a home run ball to a wide open Danny Scudero (7 rec, 70 yds) in the 3rd quarter.
  • With Coleman Kuntz out, the tight end play saw a noticeable drop off. I was hoping to see more reps from an up and comer Jayden Flaig rather than an ineffective Austin Jarrard.
  • Elijah Tau-Tolliver (13 car, 43 yds) was back but wasn’t an emphasis in the offense.
  • Curron Borders (5 car, 57 yds, 1 TD) had the lone Hornet score with a 43 yard run in the 3rd to break up the shutout.
  • Freshman Ardwon Morris (6 car, 23 yds) got some garbage time runs. I was hoping we’d see him last week.
  • Zach Shreiner (0/1 FG, 1/1 PAT) missed a 52 yard attempt in the 1st quarter. A high snap may have impacted the attempt.
No need to over analyze this game as this was a loss before the season even started, however the lack of effort on the defensive side is concerning. I expected more from the offense, but a no show there after the first quarter wasn’t a big surprise given the competition.

Stingers Up!
 
SDHornet said:
Coach Thompson and Coach Fresques should get another year. Everyone needs to calm down with the firing talk. Now there should probably be some changes to the staff, but we'll see how that all shakes out in the coming weeks.
Click to expand...
If I heard the coaches giving press conference then I might have more patience and optimism.

All I have seen is a declining program.

If HC addressed the fans maybe we would feel he needs another season?

Example: What would be different with extending this staff another season?

Changing roles for some people? Adding extra coaches?

Our Strength & Conditioning might be an urgent change, all I’ve heard in 2 seasons is how everybody is injured?

Coincidence? I have no idea but it seems to be a glaring issue?
 
SDHornet said:
Coach Thompson and Coach Fresques should get another year. Everyone needs to calm down with the firing talk. Now there should probably be some changes to the staff, but we'll see how that all shakes out in the coming weeks.
Click to expand...
I usually agree with you on most things Hornets, but I think you’re way off here. They are trying to build a new facility and make the jump, status quo here is the absolute wrong call.

Now, if they are thinking of keeping this staff around because they think Troy Taylor might get canned after next year at Stanford and might be open to coming back? I can get down with that.

This is honestly one of the worst Hornet teams I’ve seen in a decade
 
SDHornet said:
Coach Thompson and Coach Fresques should get another year. Everyone needs to calm down with the firing talk. Now there should probably be some changes to the staff, but we'll see how that all shakes out in the coming weeks.
Click to expand...

You talk about “calming down”? No, it is you that needs to take things more seriously.

There’s no valid excuse for the fall off to be this hard, this fast. NONE. They haven’t even been competitive the past 2 weeks. That’s unacceptable.

I’m not one that follows the “instant gratification” path. If I was, I wouldn’t have been a Hornets fan for all these decades.

But a winning program was built up and set in place and this new HC has allowed it to fall completely off the map inside of 18 months.

Nobody should be taking that lightly.

Furthermore, if this program is really going to go FBS in the next few years — they’ll need a much better HC and OC than the ones they’ve got now. IDK how anybody can argue otherwise with a straight face.

As I said before, the only coach I can give some leeway to is Kris Richardson. But Andy Thompson is not HC material and never was. Bobby Fresques has proven to be an epic fail as OC.

There simply aren’t enough “positives” to point to in order to justify another season. The only reason I can come up with is to buy time until the promotion to FBS (if it actually happens). But this staff cannot be in charge when the promotion happens. They can’t even compete now at FCS.

8 conference losses (and counting) in less than 2 full seasons after coming off a 23-1 conference record under Taylor should be more than enough to wake up even the most patient of fans.
 
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I think the worse thing that happened to this team thinking success would be easy after last year, they didn’t accelerate. You know the rest of season will suck when not even seeing any true freshman redshirt emerging now. It’s just saying “we’re injured”
 
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