Week 15: Sac State vs Austin Peay - FCS PLAYOFFS / RD2 (ROAD TO FRISCO!)

[GreenArmySwarm]

Here we go....
I know it's only Monday but I can't wait for this game!

Carrying over some thoughts from the AP vs Furman blow out last week.

AP got athletes. I guess that's the "SEC water" for ya lol. Their QB is also incredibly accurate (even in the rain) last week, so I'm monitoring the weather back in Sacramento on a daily basis. Ideally, we'd want a perfect day for both Thomson's sake but as well as attendance. Lord knows we need those tix sales money lol.
AP WRs are also huge, which attacks our biggest weakness, DB play.
AP also plays "after the whistle" quite a bit as others on this board have noticed.

And with all of that...SAC opened as a 13 points favorite with the bookmakers. :lol: Personally, I don't think this game is going to be quite as easy as the bookmakers would have it...

...thoughts away :dunce:

 

[Kadeezy]

Here we go....
I know it's only Monday but I can't wait for this game!

Carrying over some thoughts from the AP vs Furman blow out last week.

AP got athletes. I guess that's the "SEC water" for ya lol. Their QB is also incredibly accurate (even in the rain) last week, so I'm monitoring the weather back in Sacramento on a daily basis. Ideally, we'd want a perfect day for both Thomson's sake but as well as attendance. Lord knows we need those tix sales money lol.
AP WRs are also huge, which attacks our biggest weakness, DB play.
AP also plays "after the whistle" quite a bit as others on this board have noticed.

And with all of that...SAC opened as a 13 points favorite with the bookmakers. :lol: Personally, I don't think this game is going to be quite as easy as the bookmakers would have it...

...thoughts away :dunce:

I think AP is going to come into Hornet stadium completely out of their minds. They have their version of Tennessee-hyphy which includes a lot of sideline dancing, turnover chains, skull necklaces for the OL, and a lot of chippy stuff on the field, trying to get reactions. We're been pretty good at avoiding that crap this year, let's keep it going...

I know their DL is huge, but honestly, it looks like they got the biggest fattest dudes they could find to stuff the run. They were gassed in the win last week and I think we can take advantage with the RPO, and the dumpoffs to the flats or over the middle will definitely be open and these guys aren't going to track down anyone.

Their QB and deep pass game looked exceptional (yep, our weak point defensively). They played about three different QBs last week with all varieties of run/Pass out of many different formations. It actually didn't look all that different from our offense. They have some bruising RBs, which we also have trouble with.

I don't know if Andy Thompson will turn of the heat as much on this QB as he seems to thrive when he's being hurried. I don't thing Furman even touched him...

Overall, I like our athletes on the OL and DL to be the difference in this one. We also don't know if Pierre Williams will be able to suit up - missing him would be huge. Hopefully Thomson is healed up and is more comfortable for this game too. HERE. WE. GO.

Hornets 48
AP 38

 

[VintageHornet]

Didn't watch their game, but looking at stats/roster, their offense seems very similar to ours.

SR QB who is their second leading rusher. 60% with around 3000 yards, 25/10 TD/INT
Leading rusher is 3rd in receptions

Also, leading receiver is not huge - 5-8/165. Probably one of those slippery slot type guys...

I prefer this type of match-up over a physical ball-control offense.

Should be fun! Hoping the students/community shows up.

 

[Kadeezy]

I have four tickets, but may only use two. Would someone be interested if my buddies back out? Can email the tickets friday (should know by then).

 

[SDHornet]

Week 15 - 2nd Round Playoffs - Sac State vs Austin Peay

The 4th seeded Hornets (9-3, 7-1 BSC) hosts the Austin Peay Governors (10-3, 6-1 OVC) in a 2nd round matchup in the FCS Playoffs. The Govs come to Sacramento off of a win at home over 16th ranked Furman, 42-6 in the first round of the playoffs. It was a close weather delayed game through the first half, then it was all AP as they ran away with it in the first 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter. AP also has back to back ranked wins over 11th ranked Jacksonville State, 52-33, in week 5 and over 20th ranked Southeast Missouri, 28-24, in week 7.

The Govs run a spread option offense very similar to what the Hornets run and it is very potent. AP’s offense is currently ranked 26th/1st in FCS/OVC: 35.8 ppg (14th/1st), 430.2 ypg, 184.7 rush ypg (32nd/2nd), 245.5 pass ypg (40th/1st). JaVaughn Craig (198/341, 2831 yds, 25 TD, 10 INT, 113 car, 567 yds, 8 TD) is a dual threat QB that runs this high powered offense. He is an excellent athlete and throws a really good ball. His main targets at WR are DeAngelo Wilson (75 rec, 1314 yds, 13 TD) and Baniko Harley (46 rec, 819 yds, 6 TD). Coming out of the backfield is playmaking RB Kentel Williams (156 car, 830 yds, 10 TD, 30 rec, 295 yds, 3 TD). The OL is big with 4 of the 5 listed starters exceeding 300 pounds. This offense is loaded with playmakers that can do big damage in the open field.

APs defense operates in a 4-2-5 and is one of the best in FCS, especially against the run. AP’s defense is currently ranked 7th/1st in FCS/OVC: 19.8 ppg (13th/1st), 294.0 ypg, 91.0 rush ypg (6th/1st), 203.0 pass ypg (T-36th/1st). They have excellent size up front and have a ball hawking secondary that has 15 INTs on the year. The defense is led by LB Jack McDonald (101 tkl, 9.5 TFL, 1 sack, 1 INT) and FS Juantarius Bryant (95 tkl, 1.5 TFL). DT Josephus Smith has 7.5 sacks and NB Kordell Jackson has 7 INTs on the year.

AP’s kicker, Logan Birchfield (11/18 FG, 60/60 PAT) has struggled from anything beyond 30 yards but has hit a long of 48 on the season. They also have a kickoff specialist that boots a touchback about 20% of the time. AP’s net punting numbers are pretty average at (35.2 ypp).

I’ve only seen them in last weeks first round win and they looked very impressive. The Govs have racked up video game numbers all season long and have a very good defense on the other side of the ball. AP is a team loaded with size and talent so the Hornets will have their hands full in this one. Rain is forecast so that is an added variable (plan accordingly for those attending). AP is coming off of a wet weather game and the Hornet offense has yet to play in any weather this season.

This should be a tough game and I’m going with the Hornets in a close one.

Stingers Up!

 

[Kadeezy]

In the just released depth chart, Pierre williams is WR1, phew!

 

[BuckeyeHornetFan]

AP WRs are also huge, which attacks our biggest weakness, DB play.

Which is why the DL / front 7 needs to play extremely well. They need to pressure and stop the run as they did against the Montana programs.

 

[Kadeezy]

One thing of note, there's little to no coverage of fan content for AP. We are very lucky with our SID, this board, social media, even the Bee.

 

[Kadeezy]

I re-watched the second half of the AP/Furman game, and it really affirmed my thoughts on this game...

JaVaughn Craig will be a handful in this matchup, like I said, pretty much an Eric Barriere "light." He's not as explosive, but he was very accurate (18 for 23) in crazy weather conditions. There are four RBs with varrying styles that get major touches. Kentel Williams is the primary back, but Harley and Momodu are playmaking backs.

NG #90 John Whiteside and DT #44 Josephus Smith (love the name) just absolutely controlled the LOS for the AP D. They freed up LBs to make easy tackles, and pretty much abused the interior of the Furman OL. As I've said, I will be very interested to see us take action into the flats and the wide sides of the field to negate their presence and get our superior OL athletes out in front on some toss sweeps, speed option, screens, etc. Overall, this D is extremely aggressive, and I found myself thinking about all the notes Troy Taylor was probably taking during the game as well.

 

[BuckeyeHornetFan]

Good analysis and insight guys! Appreciate and enjoyed the read.

 

[BuckeyeHornetFan]

Found this and thought I share.

It’s a teleconference from yesterday with AP HC Mark Hudspeth, discussing the upcoming game. JoeD from the SacBee is one of the media members on the call asking questions.

http://ovcsports.com/news/2019/12/1/ovc-football-previews-fcs-playoffs-second-round.aspx

 

[Green Cookie Monster]

If it is rainy weather, turnovers will determine the winner.
This could be where our up/down kicking game comes into play. Which Thompson shows up? Rifle sharp EWU, UM & MSU games or off like the Weeb and NAU game?

AP coach is the Tennessee version of TT. First year, magician turning around an ugly duckling. Hudspeth(sp) came from UL-Lafayette (FBS) and UNA (FCS) but was a D2 power. I believe the D2 championship was played at UNA. So the coaching will be top notch.

Hoping for a break in the wet and a nice game weather kickoff. Finicky Sacramento fans melt when water is involved.

 

[GreenArmySwarm]

Hoping for a break in the wet and a nice game weather kickoff. Finicky Sacramento fans melt when water is involved.

I previously predicted that this game will see about 13-14K fans. With the weather being 100% rain, 91% humidity, wind at 17mph, that might be a pipe dream...even with it being the first D1 playoff game and all. I'm thinking it will be around 8-9k fans with this forecast. That might even be a lil aggressive but I hope Hornets fan prove me wrong.

Run game. Run game. Run game. Quarterback options. Wild cat. I think that's what we'll be seeing this weekend. I think they will do the exact same thing. After one game, I think their QB is a better run than Thomson, but we have Perkinson and Dotson to back our QB up, and that might be the advantage here.

In addition, our run D has been slowing down quite a bit after the tremendous start to the season. It's just simple wear and tear, so I REALLY REALLY hope TT had the players using their bye-week wisely.

 

[Kadeezy]

Hoping for a break in the wet and a nice game weather kickoff. Finicky Sacramento fans melt when water is involved.

I previously predicted that this game will see about 13-14K fans. With the weather being 100% rain, 91% humidity, wind at 17mph, that might be a pipe dream...even with it being the first D1 playoff game and all. I'm thinking it will be around 8-9k fans with this forecast. That might even be a lil aggressive but I hope Hornets fan prove me wrong.

Run game. Run game. Run game. Quarterback options. Wild cat. I think that's what we'll be seeing this weekend. I think they will do the exact same thing. After one game, I think their QB is a better run than Thomson, but we have Perkinson and Dotson to back our QB up, and that might be the advantage here.

In addition, our run D has been slowing down quite a bit after the tremendous start to the season. It's just simple wear and tear, so I REALLY REALLY hope TT had the players using their bye-week wisely.

BSC fan can verify, but I believe Taylor gave the team four days off (Thursday to Sunday) for thanksgiving.

I think attendance will be more like 5k with the downpour of rain expected.

Hopefully ESPN can put their cameras on the East grandstand to avoid a completely pathetic look on TV...

 

[josephpoint]

Would b thrilled with 5,000 with the current indicator being at 90 percent chance of rain. And be glad
to have a little more than that or a heck of lot more than that.

And the game will be on national TV with anyone across the country with ESPN 3. And the last game of the FCS playoffs this Saturday to determine the final team moving forward.

Assume the ESPN cameras will do a great job. .

What great exposure for Sac State football and Sacramento State in general.

Just like every game this year the Hornets and everyone behind them will rise to the opportunity and
it is going to be great

Go Hornets

and

Stingers Up!

 

[BSCfan1]

Hoping for a break in the wet and a nice game weather kickoff. Finicky Sacramento fans melt when water is involved.

I previously predicted that this game will see about 13-14K fans. With the weather being 100% rain, 91% humidity, wind at 17mph, that might be a pipe dream...even with it being the first D1 playoff game and all. I'm thinking it will be around 8-9k fans with this forecast. That might even be a lil aggressive but I hope Hornets fan prove me wrong.

Run game. Run game. Run game. Quarterback options. Wild cat. I think that's what we'll be seeing this weekend. I think they will do the exact same thing. After one game, I think their QB is a better run than Thomson, but we have Perkinson and Dotson to back our QB up, and that might be the advantage here.

In addition, our run D has been slowing down quite a bit after the tremendous start to the season. It's just simple wear and tear, so I REALLY REALLY hope TT had the players using their bye-week wisely.

BSC fan can verify, but I believe Taylor gave the team four days off (Thursday to Sunday) for thanksgiving.

Mostly correct, they were back at it early Sunday morning. Should the conditions be rainy, windy and cool, that describes a good portion of the conditions #48 kicked in in high school ball in Blaine, Washington! About the only difference would be this game's on turf and his high school games were mostly on grass fields that mostly tended to be less than ideal. (If something happens and he gets the call, the conditions won't be foreign to him at all)

 

[VintageHornet]

What's up? Not feeling the buzz yet over our first play-off game in 20 years. I was hoping for 10K, but this rain is definitely going to keep a lot of folks home. Hope I'm wrong - an empty stadium on ESPN is not a good look.

Fans need to step up. This team has definitely earned our support.

Maybe the school should hand out cheap Hornet panchos to the first 5K. We need butts in the seats!

 

[GrizFan37]

Great podcast previewing all of the Big Sky playoff games, and it's got good stuff on Sac State taking on Austin Peay.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/4cuaZ2TxcuNBaXKdo2p0nd

 

[GreenArmySwarm]

Hoping for a break in the wet and a nice game weather kickoff. Finicky Sacramento fans melt when water is involved.

I previously predicted that this game will see about 13-14K fans. With the weather being 100% rain, 91% humidity, wind at 17mph, that might be a pipe dream...even with it being the first D1 playoff game and all. I'm thinking it will be around 8-9k fans with this forecast. That might even be a lil aggressive but I hope Hornets fan prove me wrong.

Run game. Run game. Run game. Quarterback options. Wild cat. I think that's what we'll be seeing this weekend. I think they will do the exact same thing. After one game, I think their QB is a better run than Thomson, but we have Perkinson and Dotson to back our QB up, and that might be the advantage here.

In addition, our run D has been slowing down quite a bit after the tremendous start to the season. It's just simple wear and tear, so I REALLY REALLY hope TT had the players using their bye-week wisely.

BSC fan can verify, but I believe Taylor gave the team four days off (Thursday to Sunday) for thanksgiving.

Mostly correct, they were back at it early Sunday morning. Should the conditions be rainy, windy and cool, that describes a good portion of the conditions #48 kicked in in high school ball in Blaine, Washington! About the only difference would be this game's on turf and his high school games were mostly on grass fields that mostly tended to be less than ideal. (If something happens and he gets the call, the conditions won't be foreign to him at all)

We're about 48 hours away and it's safe to say that I'm more nervous than most of our players and coaches :thumb: :rofl:

 

[Kadeezy]

I guess we’ll all be sitting in the middle of an atmospheric river event, buttholes puckered on every single offensive play, NBD.... lol