Great write up about the upcoming game from the Montana fan board
It’s mid-October and games are starting to get critical for all teams with playoff hopes. Montana currently is in the driver’s seat for a good run of games and can find themselves in great shape when the season concludes, if they can handle business with the schedule ahead. The one game that many of us see as a large one to how that plan shapes out is this weekend’s game against Sacramento State. Sac State put it to Montana when we last played them in 2019 and has a crew of solid playmakers that has them in the hunt again this season. They’re 2-0 in conference, 3-2 overall, and on a 2 game winning streak.
While Sac is on a bit of a hot streak, Montana is reeling from injuries yet still playing strong. We saw a real sluggish half of football against Dixie State before UM opened it up and got going, and we’re just not sure how a few positions look when we consider depth and health at this point.
For both teams this is a big game, Montana cannot afford two conference losses and Sac wants/needs that signature win to show they’re for real. We’re going to need a packed house and maximum support for the Griz this weekend. Let’s get into it…
Sacramento State Hornets, 3-2
19-7 win vs Dixie State: Right out the bat we’ve got a common opponent this season, granted it was week 1 where sometimes teams aren’t playing at their best pace, but still. Sac was pretty balanced on the day, just about 200 passing and a little over 200 rushing. Dixie, just like when they played us, couldn’t run the ball, 50 total rushing, and passed for a bit, about 160. Sac really controlled the clock and had a lot of longer drives, some ended with no points though as they missed a fieldgoal and had a turnover on downs.
16-34 loss @ UNI: Sac was up 9-7 at the half in what looked to me like a very sloppy first half by both teams. Sac had two turnovers, UNI lost a fumble and missed a field goal – neither team was playing great football. In the 3rd quarter, UNI got it together, scoring 4 TDs on their next 4 possessions – 2 of which came off two more Sac turnovers and suddenly UNI is now up 34-9. Sac put up 350 in the air, they actually out-gained UNI in total by over 100 yards, but they had 6 total turnovers, 3 fumbles lost and 3 interceptions, that’s a killer.
30-42 loss @ Cal: Cal lead the whole game, they just couldn’t put Sac away. Looking at the box score it was 14-6 Cal at the end of the 1st quarter, 21-6 at the half, and 35-13 in the middle of the 3rd. Sac just kept it within a reasonable distance and Cal was able to secure still their only win of the season. (Worth noting Cal took UW to OT but lost). Cal passed for 290, ran for 250 and had just 1 turnover in the game. Sac had a huge day in the air, 408 passing to just 60 rushing. They just had a slower start and too many punts early – which didn’t allow them to keep pace with Cal.
23-21 win vs Idaho State: Quite the back and forth game with ISU who as we all know just knocked off UC Davis. ISU tied it at 7-7 on a kick return TD, Sac took the lead back, then ISU closed out the 2nd quarter with 14 unanswered to go up 21-14. In the 2nd half Sac kept ISU out of the endzone and kicked 3 field goals to set the final score. Looking at ISU’s 2nd half drives, it’s bleak, Sac really locked them down, lost interception, 3 and out, 3 and out, lost interception, game over. Sac’s defense was pretty great, they held ISU to under 300 total yards, sacked ISU 4 times, and grabbed 2 picks. I think this was the game where ISU’s returning QB Tyler Vanderwaal was knocked out of the game. Sac on offense, pretty similar stats to their other games, 350 passing and about 100 rushing.
41-20 win vs Southern Utah: Sac was the next team with SUU adieu with a conference beatdown, it was never a close game, Sac was up 17-0 in the first quarter alone. Sac balanced out a bit for this game, 175 passing, 250 rushing. SUU did have 300 in the air but had 3 picks and 1 lost fumble.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game SAC (293 for SAC vs 211 for UM)
Rushing yards per game Montana (144 for SAC vs 169 for UM)
Total offense SAC (437 for SAC vs 380 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game SAC (258 for SAC vs 260 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (175 for SAC vs 60 for UM)
Total defense Montana (433 for SAC vs 320 for UM)
3-3 tie, although Sac and UM are just 2 yards apart in passing yards allowed per game. Interestingly enough, we know Montana’s big outlier in that field was the EWU game, although as we see, Sac is a pass heavy program too.
Offense points scored Montana (25.8 for SAC vs 30.6 for UM)
Defense points allowed Montana (32 for SAC vs 13.8 for UM)
Turnover margin Montana – (+1 for SAC / +3 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % SAC (77% for SAC vs 50% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (10.8 yards for SAC vs 12.6 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (18.1 yards for SAC vs 35 yards for UM)
T.O.P. SAC (32:38 for SAC vs 29:11 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (86% SAC / 47% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (52% SAC / 55% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (32% for SAC / 38% for UM)
3rd down defense Montana – (47% allowed for SAC vs 28% allowed for UM)
Montana piles up 9 while Sac only adds 2, total being Montana 12, Sacramento 5. Fascinating how when you look just at yards on offense/defense they’re pretty even, but then when you dive into other stats things really come apart. I’m pretty surprised at Sac’s offense having such strong numbers but then generally poor RZ and 3rd down numbers.
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Players to Watch:
#84 Pierre Williams, WR – Williams statistically is the 4th best WR in the Big Sky right now, behind only Limu-Jones, McCutheon, and Kelly @ PSU. He’s got 476 yards this season so far and 2 TDs, he’s 6-1 and about 215 pounds. Big possession WR.
#10 Asher O’Hara, QB – Pay attention to which QB is out there and when. O’Harra (#10) is the runner of the group, in fact he leads the team in rushing with 290 yards and has a team best 4 rushing TDs. He will throw too, so he’s not just a wildcat QB, he’s averaging about 117 yards per game, he’s got 2 passing TDs and 3 INTs.
#12 Jake Dunniway, QB – Alright, so when you see #12 out there, he’s the passer. Jake’s averaging about 180 yards passing per game, he’s got 5 TDs to just 1 INT.
#16 Martin Marshall, TE – A TE being 2nd on the team in receiving yards isn’t something we see in the Big Sky much. He’s got 255 yards and a team best 3 receiving TDs.
#21 BJ Perkinson, RB – BJ is the guy that seemingly is maybe part of the reason Elijah Dotson hung it up, he took his job from him. He’s averaging just 35 rushing yards per game but is also 4th highest on the team in receptions. He’s got 111 yards this season receiving.
#9 Marcus Fulcher, RB – Another RB! Fulcher is another all-purpose back, he’s got 130 rushing yards, 140 receiving yards with 1 TD. He’s also Sac’s primary returner and he’s pretty damn good, almost a 23 yard per kick return average and a 10.6 yard per return punt average.
#5 Marcus Hawkins, LB – This guy leads Sac in a ton of defensive categories, the most team tackles with 39, tied for the most sacks with 3, the most TFLs with 8, and the most forced fumbles with 2.
#44 Josh Erickson, LB/Edge – A 6-2, 228 edge rusher he’s got 24 tackles, 3 sacks, and 5.5 TFLs this season so far. Montana’s edges have had a tough go of it of late, he’ll be the primary rusher to account for.
#15 Marte Mapu, CB/Slot – A 6-3, 221 nickel this guy has 3 picks this season already, he’s got 24 tackles and leads the team with 6 pass breakups as well.
#1 Munchie Filer, III, CB – A 6 foot tall corner that’s a pretty good cover guy, his name might be familiar, he was a bobcat for 3 years. He’s got 20 tackles and 2 INTs this season so far.
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Keys to a strong showing
1. Don’t get caught on your heels too much. I said this in our GFP recording, I think the Cal Poly screen attack on Montana’s defense is something Sac is going to use heavily – far more than EWU did. Sac has a stable of great pass catching RBs that are going to get a lot of passes, possibly over a heavy blitz.
2. Ground and pound. Running the ball, successfully, is the key for the Montana offense. The one big thing that didn’t change from Cam to Kris was seeing how the offense runs far better when the ground game is going. If X, Bergen, and whoever else we’ve got can have another good day – then that opens up the passing game far better.
3. +2 or better in turnovers. Both Montana and Sac are a little turnover prone. The team that makes the fewer mistakes on Saturday is going to hold a bit of an advantage here.
4. Win in the red zone. It’s staggering how Sac’s raw numbers on offense are great but then when you drill down to 3rd down and RZ they’re not nearly as good. They’ve got flaws that Montana should exploit. Keeping Sac from scoring TDs and making sure most UM trips in the red zone come away with TDs – statistically – should happen. Need to execute and make that the case.
5. Clean up the small errors from the Dixie game. Some small things can go a long ways, if Keelan doesn’t trip on that punt return, or if Soe doesn’t trip up Robby. If Kris just takes the sack in the 4th quarter instead of tries to extend and fumble. If the Griz make the missed field goal in the 3rd and just kick that one at the end of the 1st half, you’ve got a far more favorable scoreboard. Small improvements could go a long way.
6. Make #10 feel the physical nature of this defense. This mobile QB worries me, if he gets into space he can beat us with his feet – and he can still then throw over the defense and complete a deep bomb of a pass. With some hard hits and good pressure I’d love to see the defense rattle him early.
7. Let Sac hurt themselves. They’re the most penalized team in the Big Sky. Don’t fall into the trap where they get some ticky-tack penalties on us. Make sure that when Sac has a back breaking penalty it kills a drive for sure.
8. Make your possessions count. Sac, despite being a lean to pass heavy team, also controls the clock well. Montana is probably not going to have as many possessions as they’ve had against Dixie and EWU to get points on the board. It’s vital that Montana has more drives that come away with points, or at least a flipped field.
9. Be the better team on ST. Sac is a good returning team, we’re good at coverage. We’re without one of our stud returners but last week showed that our blocking is still on point. Win the day on special teams.
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This is going to be a battle. If Montana’s offense can’t take a few more steps forward this will come down to if the Montana defense can do enough to keep us in the game in the face of a type of offense they’ve not faced yet this season. I’m hoping the crowd is in this and keeps Montana hyped up the whole way here as well, it’ll be needed.
This feels to me that this could be the springboard game that if Montana comes away with a solid win they’ll keep building and have a good stretch where they can start to click in more phases of the game. On the other side, I think Sac has all the tools to win the game on Saturday too. Being that we’re at home and that I honestly do believe this team is starting to get things together, I’m going to say Montana wins it. I think it’ll be tight and people will still have complaints following… I’m going to say 27-17 Montana.
Go Griz!
