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Weekly prediction thread | Game 5

F

Franko

Active member
Idaho State (2-2) at Portland State (1-3)
Providence Park, Portland, Oregon
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. MST

My prediction …

Portland State 51, Idaho State 39

Last week …

Final score: Idaho State 42, Sacramento State 34

Winning prediction: clawsout had the top prediction when he picked Idaho State to win 38-24.

Worst prediction: Nothing too bad. Some folks, including myself, didn’t expect as many points on Saturday as we ended up with, but most thought it’d be a competitive matchup.
 
35-31 BENGALS!!! With the rain, we RUN all over their weaker run defense. (And we get one more starter on O-line back.) 200 yard in the air 250 on the ground!
 
ISU 38
Portland St 31

Another very exciting game with some really exciting plays. Bengals start out conference play at 2-0.
 
Not too many predictions this week. C'mon, folks, the prizes are fantastic. :mrgreen:

Taking a step back and analyzing this game is pretty interesting. Both teams have played one DII team, two FBS opponents and a single Big Sky Conference game. How much do we really know about either?

Certainly, Portland State doesn’t look like the defensive juggernaut it was a season ago. Southern Utah gouged the Vikings for 292 rushing yards on 32 carries, and PSU gave up big play after big play. SUU scored on a 37-yard run, a 90-yard pass, a 71-yard run, a 24-yard pass and an 87-yard run.

Yikes!

Think about this: Southern Utah scored 45 points, but only had 16 first downs. Really an odd game.

Obviously, Idaho State has shown the ability to score on big plays, too. Jakori Ford, Michael Dean, KW Williams, Josh Cook, these are guys who can really punish a defense that makes a mistake … and, actually, Dean just needs an open crease. AND THEN BAM! Unreal speed on that guy.

But I actually have to imagine that the Bengals cannot rely on long TD runs or explosive 50-yard scoring plays if they’re going to win Saturday in Portland. What this game, for me, comes down to is two things …

1) Turnovers.

Skyline Sports did a nice job recapping Portland State’s turnover issues the fast few weeks. The Vikings have had a combined 15 turnovers in their last three games, and their minus-13 turnover ratio is dead last in the FCS (http://skylinesportsmt.com/big-sky-power-rankings-week-of-october-1/).

Idaho State, meanwhile, has had its own problems with giveaways dating back to the 2015 season. But the offense did a nice job avoiding mistakes in the win against the Hornets.

Turnovers are finicky from season to season, game to game, quarter to quarter. But if the Idaho State defense can jump on a loose ball or grab a tipped pass, and the Bengal offense can dodge making too many mistakes of their own, ISU will be in position to pull off the road upset.

2) Idaho State’s ability to contain Portland State quarterback Alex Kuresa.

If you’ve watched any of the games from this season, then you know how the Idaho State defense has struggled with quarterbacks who can move around, scramble and extend plays. Kuresa, a Utah native, is the absolute embodiement of that type of playmaker.

How can the Bengals handle his athleticism? When it’s third and long, should they only rush three or four guys and keep a spy on him? Are they focusing on trying to keep Kuresa in the pocket?

Either way, tough task for the ISU defense. The Bengals will give up some points. Idaho State fans just have to hope that their offense can keep up.

OK … more predictions … please. Let’s hear what y’all think.
 
I'm not positive but I think ISU did not have a turnover last Saturday. That's probably why we won.
Portland St seems to have a balanced offensive attack. They run and throw the ball equally I think.
The Bengals will score a lot of points I believe. The question for me is, can we score more than them? I have predicted we will score one more touchdown.
 
I really hate to pick the Vikings in this one but....

PSU - 49
ISU - 17

I just don't see how we stop a running/throwing quarterback, we haven't yet, and this guy Kuresa is the real deal.
I hope I'm wrong, I really do. If the Bengals, win I'll be the happiest loser on the board.
 
Unfortunately I agree with Bengalguy. Until we can contain a mobile running QBs
We will not win, at least on a consistant basis. It is what it is in college football for a long time
Now, that consistently successful programs have a mobile running quarterback with various option attacks
That keep defenses guessing on every single play. Houston, Oregon, etc have proven that athletic QBs work at the college
Level on a consistant basis. I realize a few (Kramer included) disagree with this philosophy for various reasons (injury, etc)
However the QB at least MUST run the ball when required to keep the chains moving especially if he has some room downfield to run.
This keeps the defense honest so they don't mug our receivers every single play. Unfortunately Kramer has demanded his QBs to NOT run at all so we will live and die by the NFL pro set "stay in the pocket" at all costs which results in too many 3 and outs that I care to count.
In my opinion if you have smart mobile QBs on your roster then they know when to run and slide down for positive yardage in order to keep the chains moving all the way down field. We can't rely on our running backs making those big plays all the time in every game, it's just not going to happen. The bottom line, is our offense must get more creative in its play calling to sustain drives and give our defense a break. Yes, if the QBs run too much then statistically they are more prone to injury. Thus, run smart and if needed, next man up. What amazes me is when Kramer was at MSU his QB RAN the ball ALOT and they were very successful. So why the strategy / philosophy change ????? So until we fix this the same results (yes we did get lucky in 2014 with Arasis a 5th year senior) will continue. The players deserve better coaching to consistently put them in a position to win.
PSU 38 ISU 24. I hope I am wrong on the score.
 
81Champs said:
Unfortunately I agree with Bengalguy. Until we can contain a mobile running QBs
We will not win, at least on a consistant basis. It is what it is in college football for a long time
Now, that consistently successful programs have a mobile running quarterback with various option attacks
That keep defenses guessing on every single play. Houston, Oregon, etc have proven that athletic QBs work at the college
Level on a consistant basis. I realize a few (Kramer included) disagree with this philosophy for various reasons (injury, etc)
However the QB at least MUST run the ball when required to keep the chains moving especially if he has some room downfield to run.
This keeps the defense honest so they don't mug our receivers every single play. Unfortunately Kramer has demanded his QBs to NOT run at all so we will live and die by the NFL pro set "stay in the pocket" at all costs which results in too many 3 and outs that I care to count.
In my opinion if you have smart mobile QBs on your roster then they know when to run and slide down for positive yardage in order to keep the chains moving all the way down field. We can't rely on our running backs making those big plays all the time in every game, it's just not going to happen. The bottom line, is our offense must get more creative in its play calling to sustain drives and give our defense a break. Yes, if the QBs run too much then statistically they are more prone to injury. Thus, run smart and if needed, next man up. What amazes me is when Kramer was at MSU his QB RAN the ball ALOT and they were very successful. So why the strategy / philosophy change ????? So until we fix this the same results (yes we did get lucky in 2014 with Arasis a 5th year senior) will continue. The players deserve better coaching to consistently put them in a position to win.
PSU 38 ISU 24. I hope I am wrong on the score.
Click to expand...

I agree. Gueller can run but Kramer said he cannot. Kramer is afraid he will get hurt.
 
When I analyse the stats of both teams I think that the game is going to be close. Portland has a little better offense and Idaho St has a better defense. Portland's average yards per game is 414, but their opponents average 508 yards per game against Portland. On the other hand Idaho St averages 367 yards per game, but their opponents average 446 yards per game against Id State. I feel pretty good about my pick.
 
Reborn2010 said:
When I analyse the stats of both teams I think that the game is going to be close. Portland has a little better offense and Idaho St has a better defense. Portland's average yards per game is 414, but their opponents average 508 yards per game against Portland. On the other hand Idaho St averages 367 yards per game, but their opponents average 446 yards per game against Id State. I feel pretty good about my pick.
Click to expand...

I'm worried about three things
1) the wet weather (TOs)
2) our inability to contain their QB
3) getting beat over the top.
 
Fair things to be worried about. But, I think the wet weather helps us. We can run run run, and even our passing game is short and quick which is easier then long passes in the rain. So, the long passes (us getting beat very the top) is less likely to happen. Hopefully our game plan follows that for the weather.
 
BengalBannMan said:
Fair things to be worried about. But, I think the wet weather helps us. We can run run run, and even our passing game is short and quick which is easier then long passes in the rain. So, the long passes (us getting beat very the top) is less likely to happen. Hopefully our game plan follows that for the weather.
Click to expand...


I've been watching the weather pretty closely, I live about 15 miles away from Providence Park, as of right now it looks to be only intermittently drizzly on Saturday Afternoon, not looking like pouring heavy rains, and it should be rather spotty as well, not a solid band of showers, more hit and miss type of thing, of course it is one of the best outdoor fields in the conference, since they play professional Soccer here as well, (defending league champions),, it is meticulously maintained so it will be in great shape as I have said before BOTH teams have to deal with the conditions no matter what. so in that sense it is equal however; another consideration is the fact that PSU does not practice on this field, they have a separate practice facility and only see this field for home games, so they do not have the advantage of being overly familiar with the "feel" of the playing surface, and with such a large facility and the home crowds are typically very sparse the "home field advantage" is really not a factor for them. the stadium is simply too big for the paltry home crowd to be able to make enough noise to create that advantage. for all intents it is more like a "neutral" site type of thing, after all BOTH teams had to travel to the stadium via the BUS....except the Bengals had a slightly longer drive.
 
Washington-Bengal said:
BengalBannMan said:
Fair things to be worried about. But, I think the wet weather helps us. We can run run run, and even our passing game is short and quick which is easier then long passes in the rain. So, the long passes (us getting beat very the top) is less likely to happen. Hopefully our game plan follows that for the weather.
Click to expand...


I've been watching the weather pretty closely, I live about 15 miles away from Providence Park, as of right now it looks to be only intermittently drizzly on Saturday Afternoon, not looking like pouring heavy rains, and it should be rather spotty as well, not a solid band of showers, more hit and miss type of thing, of course it is one of the best outdoor fields in the conference, since they play professional Soccer here as well, (defending league champions),, it is meticulously maintained so it will be in great shape as I have said before BOTH teams have to deal with the conditions no matter what. so in that sense it is equal however; another consideration is the fact that PSU does not practice on this field, they have a separate practice facility and only see this field for home games, so they do not have the advantage of being overly familiar with the "feel" of the playing surface, and with such a large facility and the home crowds are typically very sparse the "home field advantage" is really not a factor for them. the stadium is simply too big for the paltry home crowd to be able to make enough noise to create that advantage. for all intents it is more like a "neutral" site type of thing, after all BOTH teams had to travel to the stadium via the BUS....except the Bengals had a slightly longer drive.
Click to expand...

5 total turnovers from both teams. Over or under?
 
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