Wk 4 Prediction thread UC Davis eags win 27-24

[LDopaPDX]

Eagles 27
Davis 24

Ba-zing. Winna winna, chicken dinna.

 

[Atomic Eagle]

Can't say I liked Bests interview yesterday where he is imploring the defense to create more TO's. Stops are as good as to's so want to continue the good tackling over tackling the ball. What do I know though?

I couldn't agree with this more. IMO, turnovers are the most overrated stat in football. A turnover is just a mistake by the offense that the D capitalizes on. The more plays an opposing offense runs, the more opportunities the defense has to create a turnover. A defense that smothers the offense and forces a bunch of 3-and-outs is organically going to have far fewer opportunities for a turnover than a defense that gives up 5 first downs on every drive. I'm happy with every forced punt, and no one will knock a defense that does that every time on the field.

This game may have proved this theory wrong.

 

[Atomic Eagle]

Eagles 27
Davis 24

Ba-zing. Winna winna, chicken dinna.

Wow spot on.

 

[KJEagle]

Eagles 27
Davis 24

Hey, whatya know? :lol:

 

[LDopaPDX]

Can't say I liked Bests interview yesterday where he is imploring the defense to create more TO's. Stops are as good as to's so want to continue the good tackling over tackling the ball. What do I know though?

I couldn't agree with this more. IMO, turnovers are the most overrated stat in football. A turnover is just a mistake by the offense that the D capitalizes on. The more plays an opposing offense runs, the more opportunities the defense has to create a turnover. A defense that smothers the offense and forces a bunch of 3-and-outs is organically going to have far fewer opportunities for a turnover than a defense that gives up 5 first downs on every drive. I'm happy with every forced punt, and no one will knock a defense that does that every time on the field.

This game may have proved this theory wrong.

Perhaps. However, another way to look at that might be that if we had five 3-and-outs, we'd have shut them out.

 

[WazzuEag]

Can't say I liked Bests interview yesterday where he is imploring the defense to create more TO's. Stops are as good as to's so want to continue the good tackling over tackling the ball. What do I know though?

I couldn't agree with this more. IMO, turnovers are the most overrated stat in football. A turnover is just a mistake by the offense that the D capitalizes on. The more plays an opposing offense runs, the more opportunities the defense has to create a turnover. A defense that smothers the offense and forces a bunch of 3-and-outs is organically going to have far fewer opportunities for a turnover than a defense that gives up 5 first downs on every drive. I'm happy with every forced punt, and no one will knock a defense that does that every time on the field.

In my research it seems that a turnover is worth about 4.5 points per so using the Davis game we gained about 12.5 points due to turnovers and a team that does not win the third down battle seems to only lose 15% more often while these are really directly comparable a turnover is probably more worth it. While stopping on 3rd downs are always a good thing going for it on 4th has become more and more common especially with more and more metrics.
https://www.footballperspective.com/third-down-performance-how-much-is-a-3rd-down-worth/
http://sportsquant.com/turnovers.htm