Week 7 - #5 Sac State at Northern Colorado
The 5th ranked Hornets (4-1, 1-1 BSC) hit the road after the bye to face a Northern Colorado Bears (0-5, 0-2 BSC) team that is looking for its first win under Head Coach Ed Lamb. UNC is also coming into this game off of a bye. The Bears have had a rough first half of the season, but they have looked much better in their first 2 BSC games and are not far from coming into this game undefeated in conference play. UNC was tied at Idaho State midway through the 3rd quarter until things slipped away from them in a 21-35 loss. The following week against Weber State, the Bears dominated WSU for 50 minutes until a 4th quarter, 14 point implosion resulted in a 21-28 loss at home.
Offensively, UNC primarily runs from the shotgun with multiple tight end sets and are evenly split on pass-run play calls. UNC wants to establish the running game to set up the play action. The Bears mix in some tempo to keep opposing defenses on their heels. Quarterback Jacob Sirmon (97/157, 901 yds, 5 TD, 6 INT) has a good arm and vision and is quick to hit his check down target. Blake Haggerty (26 rec, 296 yds, 1 TD) is the leading receiver and had a big 75 yard catch and run against Idaho State. On the ground, David Afari (73 car, 376 yds, 2 TD, 6 rec, 38 yds) is a strong runner that is shifty in open space and Darius Stewart (44 car, 217 yds, 1 TD, 9 rec, 80 yds, 1 TD) is a north-south runner that is quick to the hole. Both running backs have shown to be more than capable of sustaining the running game behind an offensive line that does well on the running game but struggles to keep a clean pocket.
Offensive Team Stats
UNC’s defense lines up in a 4-2-5 and has had a lot of struggles this season in keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone. The Bears defense did have an impressive showing against a physical Weber State front in their last game, however they struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. UNC has good size on the interior of the defensive line but they have shown to be susceptible to the hard count. Strong safety Dustin Johnson (34 tkl, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT) is the leading tackler with linebackers Jordan Knapke (29 tkl, 1.5 TFL) and Tama Tuitele (29 tkl, 1.5 TFL) rounding out the top 3. The last couple of weeks, UNC has displayed solid open field tackling and the secondary makes plays on the ball.
Defensive Team Stats
The Bears special teams have not had many notable moments on the season thus far. Kicker/punter Hunter Green (1/3 FG, 8/9 PAT) has struggled with field goals and has a long of 31 yards this season. However he has shined during his punting duties (33 pnt, 42.2 ypp) as he has boomed 6 for over 50 yards and dropped 9 inside the 20.
Hornet Team Stats
Position Advantage
I wouldn’t read too much into the statistical differences between these two teams, UNC’s are skewed due to tough non-conference schedule. The Hornets have more talent across the board compared to UNC, however the UNC has shown improvement early on in conference play. Add to that, the Hornets traditionally struggle in Greely and I don’t think this will be the cakewalk most are hoping for. The Hornets haven’t won in Greely by more than one possession since the Garrett Safron-led Hornets in 2012 (5 games at UNC since then). With a big ESPN 2 showdown against Montana State in 2 weeks, the Hornets can’t afford to overlook this trip to Greely against this scrappy Bears team. I’m going with the Hornets using the bye to recalibrate and refocus on the task at hand and they take care of business in Greely for a win.
Stingers Up!
UNC at Idaho State Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-EXd0HjsE8&t=32s
Weber State at UNC Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6_w3iRHbRU
The 5th ranked Hornets (4-1, 1-1 BSC) hit the road after the bye to face a Northern Colorado Bears (0-5, 0-2 BSC) team that is looking for its first win under Head Coach Ed Lamb. UNC is also coming into this game off of a bye. The Bears have had a rough first half of the season, but they have looked much better in their first 2 BSC games and are not far from coming into this game undefeated in conference play. UNC was tied at Idaho State midway through the 3rd quarter until things slipped away from them in a 21-35 loss. The following week against Weber State, the Bears dominated WSU for 50 minutes until a 4th quarter, 14 point implosion resulted in a 21-28 loss at home.
Offensively, UNC primarily runs from the shotgun with multiple tight end sets and are evenly split on pass-run play calls. UNC wants to establish the running game to set up the play action. The Bears mix in some tempo to keep opposing defenses on their heels. Quarterback Jacob Sirmon (97/157, 901 yds, 5 TD, 6 INT) has a good arm and vision and is quick to hit his check down target. Blake Haggerty (26 rec, 296 yds, 1 TD) is the leading receiver and had a big 75 yard catch and run against Idaho State. On the ground, David Afari (73 car, 376 yds, 2 TD, 6 rec, 38 yds) is a strong runner that is shifty in open space and Darius Stewart (44 car, 217 yds, 1 TD, 9 rec, 80 yds, 1 TD) is a north-south runner that is quick to the hole. Both running backs have shown to be more than capable of sustaining the running game behind an offensive line that does well on the running game but struggles to keep a clean pocket.
Offensive Team Stats
- Points scored per game: 16.2 (12th BSC / 100th FCS)
- Total Offense: 333.4 ypg (135.0 rushing ypg / 198.4 passing ypg) - 10th (9th / 8th) BSC
- Sacks Allowed: 10 (T-6th BSC)
- Turnovers: 6/2 (INT/Fum)
- Redzone: 9/11 - 8/1 (TD/FG) - 7th BSC
UNC’s defense lines up in a 4-2-5 and has had a lot of struggles this season in keeping opposing offenses out of the endzone. The Bears defense did have an impressive showing against a physical Weber State front in their last game, however they struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. UNC has good size on the interior of the defensive line but they have shown to be susceptible to the hard count. Strong safety Dustin Johnson (34 tkl, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT) is the leading tackler with linebackers Jordan Knapke (29 tkl, 1.5 TFL) and Tama Tuitele (29 tkl, 1.5 TFL) rounding out the top 3. The last couple of weeks, UNC has displayed solid open field tackling and the secondary makes plays on the ball.
Defensive Team Stats
- Points allowed per game:40.0 (11th BSC / T-116th FCS)
- Total Defense: 527.4 ypg (202.8 rushing ypg / 324.6 passing ypg) - 12th (10th / 12th) BSC
- Sacks : 4 (T-11th BSC)
- Turnovers Forced: 6/1 (INT/Fum)
- Redzone: 21/26 - 20/1 (TD/FG) - 5th BSC
The Bears special teams have not had many notable moments on the season thus far. Kicker/punter Hunter Green (1/3 FG, 8/9 PAT) has struggled with field goals and has a long of 31 yards this season. However he has shined during his punting duties (33 pnt, 42.2 ypp) as he has boomed 6 for over 50 yards and dropped 9 inside the 20.
Hornet Team Stats
- Points scored per game: 32.0 (4th BSC / 28th FCS)
- Points allowed per game: 23.8 (4th BSC / 34th FCS)
- Total Offense: 423.0 ypg (179.4 rushing ypg / 243.6 passing ypg) - 3rd (4th / 2nd) BSC
- Total Defense: 351.6 ypg (158.8 rushing ypg / 192.8 passing ypg) - 3rd (7th / 6th) BSC
- Turnovers: 4/1 (INT/Fum)
- Turnovers Forced: 5/2 (INT/Fum)
- Redzone Offense: 22/24 - 16/6 (TD/FG) - 2nd BSC
- Redzone Defense: 13/17 - 9/4 (TD/FG) - 3rd BSC
Position Advantage
- Quarterback: Hornets. Kaiden Bennett is the better playmaker compared to Jacob Sirmon. Sirmon has a better arm.
- Running Backs: Push. Assuming Marcus Fulcher is good to go, he is the most versatile running back on the field, however David Afari and Darius Stewart are a solid combo.
- Wide Receivers: Hornets. The Hornets have better playmakers that can stretch the field compared to UNC.
- Tight Ends: Hornets. Coleman Kuntz has emerged as the Hornets go to tight end, while Alec Pell got hurt at Idaho State and hasn’t played since.
- Offensive Line: Bears. UNC is coming off of a dominating game against a physical opponent, while the Hornet offensive line hasn’t had an impressive showing since Stanford.
- Defensive Line: Hornets. Slight edge to the Hornets here. Hornets are facing an offensive line that struggles to protect their quarterback, they should wreak havoc in this one. Comparatively the Bears front kept the power rushing game of Weber State in check their last time out. If UNC had a defensive end that was capable of getting pressure this unit would be notable.
- Linebackers: Hornets. Impressive performance against Weber State aside, Aarmon Bailey and Brock Mather have much better stat lines than Jordan Knapke and Tama Tuitele, especially on the blitz.
- Defensive Backs: Push. Both secondaries make plays on the ball and force turnovers.
- Punters: Bears. Hunter Green has had a lot more opportunities to shine this season.
- Kickers: Hornets. Zach Schriener has a much more impressive resume this season compared to Hunter Green.
- Kick Returners: Push. Neither team has done anything notable in the kick return game this season.
I wouldn’t read too much into the statistical differences between these two teams, UNC’s are skewed due to tough non-conference schedule. The Hornets have more talent across the board compared to UNC, however the UNC has shown improvement early on in conference play. Add to that, the Hornets traditionally struggle in Greely and I don’t think this will be the cakewalk most are hoping for. The Hornets haven’t won in Greely by more than one possession since the Garrett Safron-led Hornets in 2012 (5 games at UNC since then). With a big ESPN 2 showdown against Montana State in 2 weeks, the Hornets can’t afford to overlook this trip to Greely against this scrappy Bears team. I’m going with the Hornets using the bye to recalibrate and refocus on the task at hand and they take care of business in Greely for a win.
Stingers Up!
UNC at Idaho State Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-EXd0HjsE8&t=32s
Weber State at UNC Highlights
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6_w3iRHbRU