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#22 North Dakota @ #3 Weber State

W

WSUWildcat

Active member
Weber State returns home in first place and controls it's own destiny in the Big Sky conference race. North Dakota is likely playing for a possible playoff bid. Sure will be nice to send North Dakota out of the conference with one last loss.

5dimes has Weber as a 17 point favorite.
 
I haven't really seen a lot of ND. I've seen their scores and know that they have some good wins. They have played several BSC teams, so we should have some comparisons. Can anyone give a little rundown on what their strengths and weaknesses are?

I would think that having them travel out of Grand Forks to anywhere is a big deal, let alone to the Rockies for a high altitude game. It should be good weather, so they probably won't be used to that. :lol:

We seem to be getting better each week. Let's hope that continues. I don't think that our coaches will let our guys take their eyes off of the goal of getting better each and every week. We will not be looking past these guys. We may play this one on the conservative side of things, but if ND loads the box, we may be forced to go long on them. I'm really just hoping everyone is healthy and stays healthy this week. :coffee:
 
Loss to Idaho State is a head scratcher but they've beaten Davis and Montana State so definitely no slouch. It's a game we should win. But everyone is gonna be gunning for us. Take care of business no looking ahead to next week. Thankfully this team seems mentally focused and I doubt Hill will allow that to happen
 
oldrunner said:
I haven't really seen a lot of ND. I've seen their scores and know that they have some good wins. They have played several BSC teams, so we should have some comparisons. Can anyone give a little rundown on what their strengths and weaknesses are?
...
Click to expand...

Here's a link to some comparative stats to chew on. For the most part, the individual stats are per game averages and based on FCS away games for UND and FCS home games for Weber.

http://wxvue.com/Temp/WSU/BSC-FB-UNDatWSU.pdf
 
Game Notes
https://weberstatesports.com/documents/2019/11/5//Game_10_North_Dakota.pdf

No changes to the depth chart. Not that the depth chart means anything until after the game is over.
 
SWWeatherCat said:
oldrunner said:
I haven't really seen a lot of ND. I've seen their scores and know that they have some good wins. They have played several BSC teams, so we should have some comparisons. Can anyone give a little rundown on what their strengths and weaknesses are?
...
Click to expand...

Here's a link to some comparative stats to chew on. For the most part, the individual stats are per game averages and based on FCS away games for UND and FCS home games for Weber.

http://wxvue.com/Temp/WSU/BSC-FB-UNDatWSU.pdf
Click to expand...
Thanks. I think this is going to be a fun game. The weather is supposed to be great, so hopefully we get a good crowd. I hope the students show up in big numbers. :coffee:
 
I don’t think I really appreciated how young this Wildcat team is.

QB - Junior
RBs - Junior, Soph, Freshman
WRs - Junior and Soph
OL - Senior, 3 Juniors, and a Soph. Plus Downs is presumably back next year
TE - Soph and Freshman
DE - Two seniors but Mitton and Tarlas have shined in limited time
DT - Junior and Soph
LB - Tesch is a Senior, the other two are a Soph and Junior
DB - Two sophomores, a Junior and a Freshman
Kicker - Junior
Punter - Senior

Both the present and future are bright!
 
The Dan said:
I don’t think I really appreciated how young this Wildcat team is.

QB - Junior
RBs - Junior, Soph, Freshman
WRs - Junior and Soph
OL - Senior, 3 Juniors, and a Soph. Plus Downs is presumably back next year
TE - Soph and Freshman
DE - Two seniors but Mitton and Tarlas have shined in limited time
DT - Junior and Soph
LB - Tesch is a Senior, the other two are a Soph and Junior
DB - Two sophomores, a Junior and a Freshman
Kicker - Junior
Punter - Senior

Both the present and future are bright!
Click to expand...

Yep, program is showing that it can reload, instead of rebuild, which is hard to do at the FCS level.
 
This game has me more nervous than a pregnant nun. I fear that this could be a trap game. UND is a solid team. Weber just crushed the #6 team and plays at #6 Montana next week. UND is playing for their playoff life. I do think Weber wins, but it will be uncomfortably close.
 
I don't know, UND looks like a dog on the road. On paper they fair worse @SAC than @WSU, and we know what just happened in Cali.

In fact, just for fun, look at how bad UND compares statistically against themselves (i.e. UND statistically on the road @ UND statistically at home)
http://wxvue.com/Temp/WSU/BSC-FB-UNDatUND.pdf
it's not even remotely close.

Then compare the same to WSU @ WSU
http://wxvue.com/Temp/WSU/BSC-FB-WSUatWSU.pdf
it's very close.

I know the games aren't played on paper and there are other factors to consider but I feel pretty good about Weber's chances Saturday. I really think they would have to lay a huge egg to not send UND home with a L.
 
On paper, it looks like we win convincingly. On the field it's going to be a dog fight. I fully expect us to try to control the ball, control the TOP, control the field position, and by doing all of that, control the game. ISU scored 55 on these guys. I don't expect us to put that many on them. ISU gave them 20 points. I don't expect us to give up that many to them. We all know that Jay does not intentionally run up a score on anyone. We also know that he doesn't like to give up anything until the game is out of reach.

I would expect a score something along the lines of 36-10 for the good guys. We may score more if we get some big returns or pick 6s. I think we run it until they show that they can stop it and I don't think they will. When we do pass, they will be long gainers, chunk plays. :coffee:
 
This does seem like a bit of a trap game since it’s in the middle of 3 long road trips vs ranked teams, but I still feel confident. UND has allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to rush for 200+ yards. They haven’t played well on the road. And the Cats have been rolling.
 
WILDCAT said:
Loss to Idaho State is a head scratcher but they've beaten Davis and Montana State so definitely no slouch. It's a game we should win. But everyone is gonna be gunning for us. Take care of business no looking ahead to next week. Thankfully this team seems mentally focused and I doubt Hill will allow that to happen
Click to expand...

I was at the Idaho State game, and yes, it was a head scratcher. After looking almost unstoppable on offense during the entire first half against Davis in the prior week, UND moved down the field methodically on its first drive for a TD in Pocatello. Then the Hawks gave up a kickoff return to the red zone and held ISU to a field goal. On the second drive they moved the ball easily down the field as well until getting in the red zone. ISU made a few stops and they went for it on 4th and 11 and only got 10 yards. ISU essentially escaped going down 14-3 and the game took a 180 degree turn from there.

The team that played against Montana State looked nothing like the team that had the lackluster performance the week before. I know both games were at home, but the team looked like a fringe top 10 team during the two games against Davis and MSU.

Normally, I wouldn't want to make excuses, but based on performance the week before and after, it appears travel had a major part in this game. The team didn't arrive in Pocatello until Midnight on Friday due to an early winter storm. My only explanation for the way that the game played out is that after the initial adrenaline rush ran out, the team was overcome with exhaustion from the trip.

Let's hope for a great game! See you all tomorrow.
 
Statistically, ISU is even a bigger dog on the road than UND seems to be. In a very simplistic score and statistical rating comparison ISU is favored at home vs UND 34-27 and +402; whereas, UND is favored at home vs ISU 38-20 and +450. I hope this bodes and plays out well for Weber hosting both teams.

There has been a huge difference for UND home vs away in scoring and scoring margin despite not much difference in rush, pass, and total yardage averages. There has also been a big difference in defensive rush, pass, and total yardage, also turnover margin. Most other statistical difference is pretty negligible.

Most importantly: is great to have WEBER home again; it feels longer than it's been and I hope we are treated to the same performances WEBER put on @UCD and @SAC.
 
SWWeatherCat said:
Most importantly: is great to have WEBER home again; it feels longer than it's been and I hope we are treated to the same performances WEBER put on @UCD and @SAC.
Click to expand...

This. Between the two bad weather games and two road games it feels like it has been a month since they have played at home.

What a difference two nice road wins can make. I think we knew we had a pretty good team, but the road games answered a few questions about the offense and showed how good they entire team could play against good competition.

It is game day Wildcat fans. Beautiful weather for another Weber State win.

No real analysis here. North Dakota has been above average at home and not so great on the road. Weber is all business.

Weber 37 - UND 21
 
Stupid play call on the on-sides! It was the equivalent of a turnover, quickly turned in 7 pts. Just make these guys beat you straight up!
 
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