The way I've figured it we could finish anywhere between 3-9 to 8-4. Games we SHOULD win: Western OR, Davis, N. Dakota, Weber, Idaho State. If we blow one or more of those, its way down the list we go. The Davis game (home) will be the toughest challenge of those 5 but the two away games (UND, Weber) always make me nervous even though those two teams aren't very good.
Games we MUST win to get over the hump: Cal Poly (away), N. Arizona (home), and Sac State (away). Win all of those (and the should win games) and its an 8-4 season at worst, lose all 3 and its likely 5-7 or worse. Finally, any win against the big 4 (OSU, WSU, MSU, EWU) would be big and unless we dump one of the easier games should get us in the 7-5, 8-4 range.
I don't mind being the underdog. Until we start beating the good teams regularly and the average teams consistently, any ranking from 8 of 13 up to 5 or 6 in league is pretty accurate. At this point everything except the top 4 (EWU, MSU, Mont, N. Ariz), and bottom 4 (ISU, Weber, N. Dak, N. Colo), is a guessing game anyway.