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A 5th Home Game?

K

kalm

Active member
So TSN just released a playoff prediction bracket that has us playing at Indiana State in the first round. Of course there's a lot of football to be played yet, and even if we win out, we're still not a stone cold lead pipe lock to get an at large (althought I think we would). And it's hard telling who we would face. The committee likes to save on travel costs so an at-large out of the MVFC makes sense but Indiana State, Illinois State, and Youngstown who all have 3 losses also still have NDSU or UNI or both left on their schedules.

Anyhoo, if it were to happen, we would almost assuredly be one of the last teams in and playing that first week. Looking at last year's inaugral 20 team field, the first round was littered with 7-4 teams from the power conferences playing against the Patriots and Big Souths of the pool.

My point is that we're not too far away from having to submit bids for hosting first round games. If we did happen to be paired against either of the ISU's out of the MVFC we are ahead of them in attendance this year. If we were paired with a Wofford or Sam Houston State we are ahead of them in attendance as well.

I think Chaves and Co. owe it to us to bid up the crap out of that game even if it means potentially taking a hit. They can use the USD, or two FBS paydays from next year to cover the cost. It's the least they can do to make up for this year's schedule. :nod:

BTW, according to the TSN bracket, the winner of our game would be traveling to Bozeman.

If you're one of those who is averse to premature playoff talk, I apologize. I'm a fan, not a player and reserve the right to think ahead. ;)

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/fcs/FCS_Bracket.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Kalm,

I like your thinking and agree that the admin owes us another home game if they can bid on one if we make the playoffs.

As fans, we don't have to take it one game at a time. As players, don't think they aren't thinking about the playoffs and how much they still have to play for, but I'm sure they are taking it one game at a time.

The first round of the playoffs never draws well regardless of where it is played because it is always that saturday of thanksgiving weekend, if we can make a solid showing this weekend, win out, we may be able to host a home game that saturday.

Would be even better if we had a bye that first weekend, but highly unlikely for a 7-4 at large team.
 
Obviously, nothing matter except winning this weekend... but for speculation's sake, I'd almost bet we get sent on the road for a second-round game. The precedent would be Villanova last year, who went 7-4 with the losses coming early during a campaign full of injuries. They drew Southland champ Stephen F. Austin on the road in the second round.

As a likely 3rd Big Sky team in--- and this would apply to Portland State if they win out as well--- history says we'd probably get sent to whoever is non-seeded, either the Southland champ (almost certainly Sam Houston State) or the loser of Northern Iowa and North Dakota State. Given those alternatives, I'd prefer Sam Houston State. It'd really be beneficial for them to finish 10-1 to ensure they don't get a seed... if they run the table, they almost certainly get seeded.
 
The more I think about this, the less likely I think a first round home game... or any first round game, for that matter would be.

The only chance is the aforementioned 3rd place MVC-type of team or a possible Central Arkansas-type 2nd Southland team. I don't see Stony Brook or Liberty winning the Big South and not getting through with a bye, and it would be shocking to see that conferecne get 2 in.

Therefore, a third Big Sky team would be left with a MEAC winner (Norfolk State or NC A&T, likely), the NEC winner (Albany, without an autobid), the Pioneer winner (likely Drake, without an autobid) or the Patriot winner (probably Holy Cross or Lehigh). Any of those would be doubtful for the NCAA to fly to the West Coast. Unless something from the MVC or Southland opens up, it would be very difficult to schedule us into a first round game.
 
LDopaPDX said:
The more I think about this, the less likely I think a first round home game... or any first round game, for that matter would be.

The only chance is the aforementioned 3rd place MVC-type of team or a possible Central Arkansas-type 2nd Southland team. I don't see Stony Brook or Liberty winning the Big South and not getting through with a bye, and it would be shocking to see that conferecne get 2 in.

Therefore, a third Big Sky team would be left with a MEAC winner (Norfolk State or NC A&T, likely), the NEC winner (Albany, without an autobid), the Pioneer winner (likely Drake, without an autobid) or the Patriot winner (probably Holy Cross or Lehigh). Any of those would be doubtful for the NCAA to fly to the West Coast. Unless something from the MVC or Southland opens up, it would be very difficult to schedule us into a first round game.
Click to expand...
So are you speculating that IF we get in it would be in the second round?
 
If, and it's a big if at this point, we somehow managed to finish the season out at 7-4 with 7 consecutive wins, I don't see the committee leaving us out. Our strength of schedule, coupled with the fact that we are in one of the top four FCS conferences would almost assure us of an at-large. There's also the NC thing in our favor. I suppose it's possible we get to play at home for the play-in game, but it's equally possible we go on the road. Missoula isn't out of the question in that scenario, because if they finish at 8-3 like I think they will, they'll be playing a first round game and will most assuredly out-bid us. They try and keep those first round games as regional as possible.

But anyway, I am more concerned with PSU at the moment. A win this weekend opens up some possibilities with the much needed bye week and the oppourtunity to perhaps get a few more guys healthy for the push into the final stretch of the season. I'll be feeling a lot better about any playoff discussion if we can win tjis weekend.
 
LDopaPDX said:
Obviously, nothing matter except winning this weekend... but for speculation's sake, I'd almost bet we get sent on the road for a second-round game. The precedent would be Villanova last year, who went 7-4 with the losses coming early during a campaign full of injuries. They drew Southland champ Stephen F. Austin on the road in the second round.

As a likely 3rd Big Sky team in--- and this would apply to Portland State if they win out as well--- history says we'd probably get sent to whoever is non-seeded, either the Southland champ (almost certainly Sam Houston State) or the loser of Northern Iowa and North Dakota State. Given those alternatives, I'd prefer Sam Houston State. It'd really be beneficial for them to finish 10-1 to ensure they don't get a seed... if they run the table, they almost certainly get seeded.The more I think about this, the less likely I think a first round home game... or any first round game, for that matter would be.

The only chance is the aforementioned 3rd place MVC-type of team or a possible Central Arkansas-type 2nd Southland team. I don't see Stony Brook or Liberty winning the Big South and not getting through with a bye, and it would be shocking to see that conferecne get 2 in.

Therefore, a third Big Sky team would be left with a MEAC winner (Norfolk State or NC A&T, likely), the NEC winner (Albany, without an autobid), the Pioneer winner (likely Drake, without an autobid) or the Patriot winner (probably Holy Cross or Lehigh). Any of those would be doubtful for the NCAA to fly to the West Coast. Unless something from the MVC or Southland opens up, it would be very difficult to schedule us into a first round game.
Click to expand...

Good thoughts Dopa and you may be right. Because of our isolation it might be just as easy to wait a week and send us packing in the 2nd round. But if you look back to last year, Nova was 1 out of 5 power conference at- larges that were 7-4 who didn't play in the first round. So it depends on how things shake out. I just see the possibility there - especially if, as you suggest, SHSU loses one more and/or does not get a seed.

Right now, all of the power conferences have two teams that are worthy of seeds which could push out the Southland #1. Each power conference also has at least a couple of bubble teams. We need to root for multiple seeds out of at least two of these conferences and for the bubble teams out of the CAA and the Southern to beat each other up. It will be very interesting to keep track of.

And for the 10th time in this thread, yes, we must first take care of business this Saturday. :thumb:
 
EWURanger said:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk[/youtube]

:lol:
Click to expand...

Too soon? :mrgreen:

In all fairness, I seriously doubt that anyone on our coaching staff is concerned with these dynamics. But since we all like to play armchair A.D. I figured a few of you critics might want to begin considering. I would like to think the administration is already crunching the numbers.
 
kalm said:
EWURanger said:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk[/youtube]

:lol:
Click to expand...

Too soon? :mrgreen:

In all fairness, I seriously doubt that anyone on our coaching staff is concerned with these dynamics. But since we all like to play armchair A.D. I figured a few of you critics might want to begin considering. I would like to think the administration is already crunching the numbers.
Click to expand...

yes but we must first take care of business on saturday. ;)
 
eaglesfootball said:
kalm said:
EWURanger said:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3-eavMSBnk[/youtube]

:lol:
Click to expand...

Too soon? :mrgreen:

In all fairness, I seriously doubt that anyone on our coaching staff is concerned with these dynamics. But since we all like to play armchair A.D. I figured a few of you critics might want to begin considering. I would like to think the administration is already crunching the numbers.
Click to expand...

yes but we must first take care of business on saturday. ;)
Click to expand...

Merciless. :ohno:
 
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