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An indictment of the playoff committee

L

LDopaPDX

Active member
Final polling for the regular season is out, and just as we all expected, Eastern is pretty much the top rated team left out of the playoffs. This is especially concerning when compared to NAU. I know some of these polls aren't worth the ink they're printed with, but the NCAA has a long history of using RPI ratings when making playoff decisions.

Here's how we stack up:

RPI 139 highest rated playoff eligible team (Not a MEAC/SWAC champ or Ivy League) to be left out of playoffs. Nearest team left out is 6-5 Richmond at 155. Bubble at-large teams below us (noteworthy) Nicholls 150, Monmouth 147, UNI 146, New Hampshire 141, NAU 166

STATS FCS 14 17 highest rated playoff eligible team left out, next closest Illinois State 23. NAU 25.

College Sports Madness 19 highest eligible playoff team left out with 7 wins (notice a trend?) Richmond 11, NAU 27.

FCS Coaches Poll 19 guess what? highest playoff eligible team left out. NAU unranked.

It seems the playoff committee are pretty much the only people on the planet who didn't think we were worthy of a shot. Whatever logic they used to put NAU ahead of us (which, based on their last two in and last two out means they had NAU at least five sports ahead of us) needs to be explained.
 
Just finishing the AD podcast and Bills comment about teams he calls asking about scheduling and their comment about not wanting to get on a plane makes me mad but makes sense regarding scheduling issues he faces.
 
I guess they're putting a *lot* of stock into the win over a 5 loss Illinois State team.

Breaking down some random stats for the year to make the blood boil...

Average Points Given Up:
NAU: 28.6
EWU: 33.4
Advantage: NAU

Average Points Scored:
NAU: 32.1
EWU: 34.5
Advantage: EWU

Average Opponent Losses:
NAU: 5.6
EWU: 4.5
Advantage: EWU

Against Common Opponents
- Accounts for 6 of both teams' schedules.
- Except for PSU and UC Davis, NAU and EWU played the same home/away schedule against these teams. EWU had PSU at Home and UC Davis Away.

Average Points Given Up
NAU: 28.2
EWU: 34.7
Advantage: NAU

Average Points Scored
NAU: 32.7
EWU: 43.2
Advantage: EWU

Average Point Spread
NAU: 4.5
EWU: 8.5
Advantage: EWU

Average Point Spread, regardless of results (NAU to EWU, note that UC Davis is the only team where NAU had a wider margin.
Portland State -4
UC Davis 11
Sac State -1
Montana -9
Montana State -11
Southern Utah -10
Total -24
 
Good analysis from above post. Here is my take on how EWU and the Big Sky Conference (BSC) got left out (screwed):
EWU and NAU both played 6 common opponents in the BSC. EWU won 5 of those 6, and NAU won 4 of the 6. THAT is normally the tie breaker when it comes down to conference standings, which means EWU finished 3rd and NAU 4th due to NAU's loss to the Griz (an away game). EWU BEAT the Griz - also an away game. Advantage EWU! As far as non conference games, EWU and NAU both played 1 FBS team and 2 FCS teams and both went 1-2, so a draw. Now come BSC games vs uncommon opponents. EWU played Weber and North Dakota who were a combined 11-11 records, and NAU played Cal Poly and Northern Colorado who were a combined 4-17 on wins/losses, so advantage EWU in strength of schedule.
Lastly, in the 6 common opponents both teams played in the BSC, EWU was +51 in points to NAU's +27 in points, advantage EWU AGAIN! So no idea what the committee was looking at from head to head.
Lastly, and just a throw in, New Hampshire lost 15-0 to an Albany team who was 2-5 in conference, and South Dakota lost 4 of their last 5 and finished 4-4 in the Missouri Valley, both made the playoffs over EWU?!? What part of this am I not getting?
 
NAU got screwed in Missoula when the refs ejected Case Cookus for blocking. They most likely would have won that game and had a better record than the Eagles. This was the Big Sky Conf. way of making it right to Jerome Sauers in his last year.
 
clawman said:
NAU got screwed in Missoula when the refs ejected Case Cookus for blocking. They most likely would have won that game and had a better record than the Eagles. This was the Big Sky Conf. way of making it right to Jerome Sauers in his last year.
Click to expand...

NAU announced yesterday that Souers is coming back for next year. Funny how a trip to the playoffs can change the mind of an AD.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21494412/northern-arizona-jerome-souers-return-2018
 
ewusigep252 said:
clawman said:
NAU got screwed in Missoula when the refs ejected Case Cookus for blocking. They most likely would have won that game and had a better record than the Eagles. This was the Big Sky Conf. way of making it right to Jerome Sauers in his last year.
Click to expand...

NAU announced yesterday that Souers is coming back for next year. Funny how a trip to the playoffs can change the mind of an AD.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21494412/northern-arizona-jerome-souers-return-2018
Click to expand...

Or when the AD who makes the horrible decision, leaves for another job...

http://www.goutsa.com/news/2017/11/17/utsa-names-lisa-campos-vice-president-for-intercollegiate-athletics-and-athletics-director.aspx
 
More info and some of this will be brought up in this week's FCS Nation interview with committee chair Richard Johnson.

The Socon's best OOC win is over Kennesaw from a conference who's best win is a 2 point victory over the 7th best team from the BSC.

APSU had a OOC win against Moorhead. The OOC games were 3 FBS. What's their record if they play Lehigh, Lafayette, Bucknell, Hampton, and/or Albany OOC like Monmouth did?

Monmouth's only "quality" wins were within their conference. Nicholl's quality win was within conference. How does the SRS account for conferences that are weak? And again, why is SUU the #8 seed with 3 wins over playoff teams and the #9 SoS vs. Wofford with one win over a playoff team and the 45th SoS or SHSU with one win over a playoff team and the 69th SoS, or JSU with no wins over playoff teams and the 40th SoS?

Nicholl's big OOC win came against PVA&M.
 
kalm said:
More info and some of this will be brought up in this week's FCS Nation interview with committee chair Richard Johnson.

The Socon's best OOC win is over Kennesaw from a conference who's best win is a 2 point victory over the 7th best team from the BSC.

APSU had a OOC win against Moorhead. The OOC games were 3 FBS. What's their record if they play Lehigh, Lafayette, Bucknell, Hampton, and/or Albany OOC like Monmouth did?

Monmouth's only "quality" wins were within their conference. Nicholl's quality win was within conference. How does the SRS account for conferences that are weak? And again, why is SUU the #8 seed with 3 wins over playoff teams and the #9 SoS vs. Wofford with one win over a playoff team and the 45th SoS or SHSU with one win over a playoff team and the 69th SoS, or JSU with no wins over playoff teams and the 40th SoS?

Nicholl's big OOC win came against PVA&M.
Click to expand...
Way to break this down kalm. Just saw this tweet from AD Chaves. Was wondering if we just didn't want to be in the playoff's as a non-seed and was glad to see this.

Bill Chaves‏ @EWUeaglesAD · Nov 19

Last tweet of the day / no one will EVER be able to convince me that we are NOT one of the best at large teams in @NCAA_FCS - NO WAY, NO HOW - ask coaches that are hosting this week if they are ok not seeing the Eags? Major chip in ‘18...#GoEags
Click to expand...

Aside from the committee wanting to make NDSU and JMU's path to the final easier, I cannot fathom the thought's behind several of their choices. Actually like Monmouth, they have a couple of Kaufman type receivers and good QB that could produce a first round win albeit, they won't stop a good team from scoring. Not saying they are a better choice, just fun to watch. A part of me thinks the BigSky commissioner was weak sauce on this. Speculation.
 
Did the Big Sky somehow prop up NAU over Eastern? I wouldn't think the committee would view NAU as stronger than Eastern. Not only do we have a much better playoff pedigree, but our strength of schedule was higher and we finished with equal conference and overall records. Additionally, were coming off two straight wins, so we wouldn't have backed into the playoffs. There are a lot of questionable schools that got at large bids, and most pundits didn't even perceive us as a bubble team as recently as last Saturday evening. We were a virtual lock.

New Hampshire had a shutout bad loss to Albany. And they had the same record. Yet they get in. Just strange all the way around.
 
LDopaPDX said:
Did the Big Sky somehow prop up NAU over Eastern? I wouldn't think the committee would view NAU as stronger than Eastern. Not only do we have a much better playoff pedigree, but our strength of schedule was higher and we finished with equal conference and overall records. Additionally, were coming off two straight wins, so we wouldn't have backed into the playoffs. There are a lot of questionable schools that got at large bids, and most pundits didn't even perceive us as a bubble team as recently as last Saturday evening. We were a virtual lock.

New Hampshire had a shutout bad loss to Albany. And they had the same record. Yet they get in. Just strange all the way around.
Click to expand...

Who is the Big Sky representative on the committee?
 
Idaho State's AD who is a wimp.

tenor.gif
 
LDopaPDX said:
Monmouth sure looked like they belonged in losing 46-7 to UNI.
Click to expand...
Don't be disingenuous, you didn't think Nichols belonged either... I thought Monmouth might put up a better showing, didn't watch the game though. Kennesaw beat a good team today in Samford. Apparently, this was South Dakota's first playoff win today. It's all water under the bridge now. At least one BigSky team will make the semi's.
 
LDopaPDX said:
Monmouth sure looked like they belonged in losing 46-7 to UNI.
Click to expand...

NAU lost to San Diego (SAN DIEGO!!!) 41-10. Looking at a few other teams and yeah the committee did a miserable job. Monmouth? What a joke. I think there's probably one or two teams in addition to EWU that were more deserving.
 
JPN17 said:
LDopaPDX said:
Monmouth sure looked like they belonged in losing 46-7 to UNI.
Click to expand...

NAU lost to San Diego (SAN DIEGO!!!) 41-10. Looking at a few other teams and yeah the committee did a miserable job. Monmouth? What a joke. I think there's probably one or two teams outside of EWU that were more deserving.
Click to expand...

Ha! Beat me to it! Persnonally, I don't think EWU loses to San Diego...and they sure as heck wouldn't get blown out. I seriously do not get why they were picked as the third BSC team. Guess a win against the MVFC has the weight of beating and FBS team in their eyes. Don't know what else it could be.
 
Not sure who was more embarrassing today, NAU getting rolled by San Diego or WSU shitting down their leg again in the Apple Cup.
 
MLEagle said:
Not sure who was more embarrassing today, NAU getting rolled by San Diego or WSU shitting down their leg again in the Apple Cup.
Click to expand...

Putting any faith in WSU year after year is the definition of insanity. They are, and always will be little brother. In fact, right now they're still the middle brother, as the youngest, most promising brother (EWU) still has the last win.

But seriously, the series is 72-32-6. Leach will soon be gone and the Cougs will return to a 4 win step child of the PAC 12.
 
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