Big Sky race

[flyingnail]

The Big Sky will likely benefit from the Colonial having what appears to be a down year... Towson is at the top of that heap with Maine. Scary... who'da thunk it?

Anyone out of the Big sky that goes 7-4 is probably in, with the exception of Portland State who'll need 8 wins since they play a D-III and a D-II. The real dilemma would be if Montana goes 7-4 and/or Sac State goes 7-4 and we also go 7-4. Montana beat us and would probably go in front of us on head-to-head and even if we went 7-4 with a win over Sac State, they'd have "marquee" wins over Montana and Oregon State that we don't have.

Everything is irrelevant regarding Eastern unless we win out, starting with this weekend.

Another interesting feature of our lousy schedule, we play Sac State with them coming off a bye week. We also played NAU off their bye week. Also, we got Montana State after they played Minot State at home and we'll get Portland State coming off a home destruction of D-III Willamette. For all practical purposes, we play or played 4 teams coming off a scrimmage weekend instead of a big game.

We, unfortunately, drew a two week bye from conference play at the end of the season. That doesn't make much sense to me that we play 7 conference games in a row and then get two weeks off from Big Sky play before getting Idaho State.

Montana would be at only 6 DI wins. That's a dagger even considering their head to head win IMHO. Noticed and agree on the bye week thing though.

Doesnt help much with a bye week with only 2 games left in the season ! W T F !!

 

[flyingnail]

The Big Sky will likely benefit from the Colonial having what appears to be a down year... Towson is at the top of that heap with Maine. Scary... who'da thunk it?

Anyone out of the Big sky that goes 7-4 is probably in, with the exception of Portland State who'll need 8 wins since they play a D-III and a D-II. The real dilemma would be if Montana goes 7-4 and/or Sac State goes 7-4 and we also go 7-4. Montana beat us and would probably go in front of us on head-to-head and even if we went 7-4 with a win over Sac State, they'd have "marquee" wins over Montana and Oregon State that we don't have.

Everything is irrelevant regarding Eastern unless we win out, starting with this weekend.

Another interesting feature of our lousy schedule, we play Sac State with them coming off a bye week. We also played NAU off their bye week. Also, we got Montana State after they played Minot State at home and we'll get Portland State coming off a home destruction of D-III Willamette. For all practical purposes, we play or played 4 teams coming off a scrimmage weekend instead of a big game.

We, unfortunately, drew a two week bye from conference play at the end of the season. That doesn't make much sense to me that we play 7 conference games in a row and then get two weeks off from Big Sky play before getting Idaho State.

The other thing that has pissed me off about the Big Sky schedule is that we have been playing the Montana schools back to back for a while now. I think Sac State also has it this way. They need to shake up the conference schedule some. Montana doesn't play EWU and MSU in back to back weeks, nor does MSU play EWU and UM in back to back weeks. What gives?

Its a freaking joke ! The odds of winning both those games back to back are non-existent ! W T F !!!

 

[kalm]

Montana at 7-4 would almost certainly be in the playoff race over a 7-4 Eastern... although, ideally, both would be in. Remember, the NCAA says 7 D-I wins gives you "preference," but it really has no concrete bearing on selections. There will be teams from crappy conferences with 9 D-I wins this season who won't get in, because even the East Coast hacks on the selection committee know that beating Monmouth or St. Francis is a weaker win than Western Oregon or Central Washington.

There were 5 other 7-4 teams selected at large instead of Montana last year. The 7 win bar is set very high. When was the last time a 6 D1 win team got an at large?

 

[kalm]

Here is my take on the big sky race and playoff picture.

MSU - cats are in, they have 2 games against ISU and UNC they should win easily and play at Weber and host the griz to end the year. Both WSU and the Griz will be tough games, and MSU may drop one of those games, but I don't see them losing more than one, if any, of their remaining games. If MSU wins out, they will win the big sky.

GRIZ - The griz have a difficult schedule, they play at NAU and MSU and still host Weber, they have to win 2 of those games to make the playoffs because they can't finish 7-4. Even if we finish 7-4 and they finish 7-4, we should get the bid. They beat us head to head, but will only have 6 wins against FCS opponents, just like last year, the committee will see there record as 6-4 not 7-4. I do think the Griz beat NAU and WSU , but lose to the Cats and still make the playoffs, but NAU will be a big game this weekend. If the Griz win out, they will win the big sky.

PSU - I think PSU is done already. They can only finish the season with 6 FCS wins even if they win out because they played 2 drop down games this year.

WEBER - Weber can most likely lose 1 game and still make it, but they still have both Montana schools, NAU, SUU, and PSU left. If weber finishes the season 7-4 they are in, because if they go 4-1 in their last 5 they earned it. We would most likely get in to the playoffs over weber if we were both 7-4 as we won head to head. If weber wins out, they will win the big sky.

SAC ST - Sac can most likely still lose 1 and make it in as they will finish 7-4 and have an FBS win under their belt. If we win this weekend and finish 7-4 I think we would get the bid over them due to the head to head matchup.

EWU - we have to win out to make it in. We can do it, but the most difficult game remaining is this weekends game. I think if we pull out the win saturday we will run the table. After this weekend we have PSU at home, then cal poly after a bye followed by an ISU team that seems to be melting down.

Eastern has the easiest remaining schedule and WSU and the GRIZ have the toughest. The next 2 weeks will really clear up the big sky and playoff picture.

Bottom line is we need to win!

Well done. :thumb:

 

[marceagfan5]

quote]

Doesnt help much with a bye week with only 2 games left in the season ! W T F !!

It was the exact same scenario last year...we had a bye with 2 games left, then played a non conf game against SUU. It is much better having a bye late in the season than early so the players can heal up on injuries. I don't like the fact that we have 2 weeks off from conference play, but truth is we are not playing to win the conference right now because the Cats or Griz pretty much have it wrapped up and own the tie breakers over us, we are playing to make the playoffs at this point.

Cal Poly plays a different style, a lot of options, a lot of running. It will be good to have 2 weeks to prepare for it as we don't see that style at all this year, PSU runs a lot, but not the same style as Cal Poly.

and...hopefully we won't have 2 games left in our season after the bye week.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Montana at 7-4 would almost certainly be in the playoff race over a 7-4 Eastern... although, ideally, both would be in. Remember, the NCAA says 7 D-I wins gives you "preference," but it really has no concrete bearing on selections. There will be teams from crappy conferences with 9 D-I wins this season who won't get in, because even the East Coast hacks on the selection committee know that beating Monmouth or St. Francis is a weaker win than Western Oregon or Central Washington.

There were 5 other 7-4 teams selected at large instead of Montana last year. The 7 win bar is set very high. When was the last time a 6 D1 win team got an at large?

The other thing to note was that Montana lost to 4 FCS teams last year, two of which weren't playoff contenders. Montana missed the playoff because of their losses as much of lack of marquee wins. If you play a D-II and a BCS and go 7-4 but 6-3 against FCS, that looks a lot better.

James Madison was heavily considered with only 6 total wins last year.

 

[kalm]

Montana at 7-4 would almost certainly be in the playoff race over a 7-4 Eastern... although, ideally, both would be in. Remember, the NCAA says 7 D-I wins gives you "preference," but it really has no concrete bearing on selections. There will be teams from crappy conferences with 9 D-I wins this season who won't get in, because even the East Coast hacks on the selection committee know that beating Monmouth or St. Francis is a weaker win than Western Oregon or Central Washington.

There were 5 other 7-4 teams selected at large instead of Montana last year. The 7 win bar is set very high. When was the last time a 6 D1 win team got an at large?

The other thing to note was that Montana lost to 4 FCS teams last year, two of which weren't playoff contenders. Montana missed the playoff because of their losses as much of lack of marquee wins. If you play a D-II and a BCS and go 7-4 but 6-3 against FCS, that looks a lot better.

James Madison was heavily considered with only 6 total wins last year.

But they still didn't get in. So has there ever been a 6 D1 win team that received an at-large? I just don't see our 3 point road loss at Missoula tipping the scales in their favor.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Montana at 7-4 would almost certainly be in the playoff race over a 7-4 Eastern... although, ideally, both would be in. Remember, the NCAA says 7 D-I wins gives you "preference," but it really has no concrete bearing on selections. There will be teams from crappy conferences with 9 D-I wins this season who won't get in, because even the East Coast hacks on the selection committee know that beating Monmouth or St. Francis is a weaker win than Western Oregon or Central Washington.

There were 5 other 7-4 teams selected at large instead of Montana last year. The 7 win bar is set very high. When was the last time a 6 D1 win team got an at large?

The other thing to note was that Montana lost to 4 FCS teams last year, two of which weren't playoff contenders. Montana missed the playoff because of their losses as much of lack of marquee wins. If you play a D-II and a BCS and go 7-4 but 6-3 against FCS, that looks a lot better.

James Madison was heavily considered with only 6 total wins last year.

But they still didn't get in. So has there ever been a 6 D1 win team that received an at-large? I just don't see our 3 point road loss at Missoula tipping the scales in their favor.

Eastern has twice gotten in with less than 7 D-I wins, in 1985 and 2005. We were aided by getting the auto-bid in 2005, although we would have gotten in regardless as the field was fairly weak that year. We only had 6 D-I wins for an 8 win team in 1985 and were an at-large team.