clawman said:
On the Big Sky Conference web site they note that Weber is assured a top 4 seed but neither team is recognized at the #1seed yet.
http://www.bigskyconf.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball
Do you know something they don't?
Weber holds the tiebreaker over Montana because of their win on Saturday (they only play once) so Weber has to lose twice and Montana has to win twice for the Griz to get the 1 seed. If Weber beats Idaho on Thursday, expect them to rest their players against us on Saturday as they will have secured the 1 seed.
As for the 3-6 place teams that are all tied. If we beat ISU on Thursday, we will have a one game lead over them and own the tiebreaker over them, so its a huge game, its vice versa if they win. Basically, whoever wins that game will finish ahead of the other, regardless of what happens on Saturday. We need the Griz to beat UND, because if UND beats the Griz and we finish with the same record, I believe they will be ahead of us due to strength of wins (they would have beaten Weber and UM). We also need Weber to beat Idaho for the same reason as the UND/UM game. If UND and IDAHO win on thursday, they would win the tiebreakers over us if we end up tied because they would have beaten the top 2 teams and we all split in head to head games....
Bascially we need to win thursday, and hope either Idaho or UND loses on thursday...which is a strong possibility.
Best case scenario for us is that we win on Thursday and Weber beats Idaho. This would give us a 1 game lead over Idaho and ISU and Weber probably doesn't play their starters on Saturday in Cheney, or at least for any length...
I also don't see UND winning in Missoula, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us in 3rd all by ourselves come Friday, although Idaho is playing damn good right now. Besides their game with us, their losses have all been by 3 points or less, and they did this without their two best players for most of the conference slate, who are now back now. They are a VERY dangerous team come tourney time...