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FCS Playoffs Round 2 - #8 Sac State vs #11 South Dakota State

SDHornet

SDHornet

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FCS Playoffs Round 2 - #8 Sac State vs #11 South Dakota State

The 8th ranked and 4th seeded Hornets (9-2, 8-0 BSC) host a 2nd round game in the playoffs against the 11th ranked South Dakota State Jackrabbits (9-3, 5-3 MVFC) of the Missouri Valley Football Conference. SDSU came into the season as runners-up in the FCS title game in the spring season and finished 3rd in the MVFC this past season. This game will be their 11th straight game without a bye. The Jacks were a poorly defended Hail Mary loss to South Dakota, 20-23, from being seeded in the playoffs but have a very impressive 27-19 win over FCS juggernaut North Dakota State. In the first round of the playoffs, the Jacks humiliated the dungpilers with a 56-24 win in Brookings.

Statistical Comparison
Category: SDSU - Sac State
Scoring Offense: 38.8 ppg (1st MVFC/6th FCS) -- 31.4 ppg (2nd BSC/31st FCS)
Total Offense: 448.8 ypg (1st MVFC/10th FCS) -- 462.5 ypg (2nd BSC/9th FCS)
Rushing Offense: 214.8 ypg (2nd MVFC/10th FCS) -- 178.4 ypg (2nd BSC/25th FCS)
Passing Offense: 234.1 ypg (5th MVFC/38th FCS) -- 284.1 ypg (3rd BSC/14th FCS)
Red Zone Offense: 89.1% (3rd MVFC/12th FCS) -- 82.4% (4th BSC/47th FCS)
Sacks Allowed: 1.00 spg (2nd MVFC/7th FCS) -- 1.36 spg (2nd BSC/21st FCS)
Turnovers Lost: 9 (1st MVFC/5th FCS) -- 13 (3rd BSC/23rd FCS)

Scoring Defense: 18.8 ppg (3rd MVFC/18th FCS) -- 18.6 ppg (3rd BSC/17th FCS)
Total Defense: 333.0 ypg (3rd MVFC/29th FCS) -- 326.6 ypg (4th BSC/21st FCS)
Rushing Defense: 105.0 ypg (3rd MVFC/12th FCS) -- 114.0 ypg (4th BSC/21st FCS)
Passing Defense: 228.0 ypg (7th MVFC/68th FCS) -- 212.6 ypg (4th BSC/50th FCS)
Red Zone Defense: 72.2% (3rd MVFC/15th FCS) -- 68.8% (2nd BSC/8th FCS)
Sacks: 2.67 spg (5th MVFC/26th FCS) -- 1.91 (11th BSC/68th FCS)
Turnovers Gained: 23 (4th MVFC/12th FCS) -- 21 (4th BSC/22nd FCS)

Offensively the Jacks line up in a lot of shotgun and Pistol formations with loads of different packages. They also sneak in some swanky “wild rabbit” (I made that formation name up) looks with direct snaps to the RBs. This offense wants to ground and pound behind their massive OL and big TEs and let their two headed monster rushing attack run wild. QB Chris Oladokun (192/305, 2539 yds, 22 TD, 5 INT, 55 car, 117 yds, 2 TD) is very good. He makes great reads, takes care of the ball, has a great arm and is very mobile even though he doesn’t have much rushing stats. This will be the most versatile QB the Hornets will have faced up to this point. SDSU has a pair of RBs in Pierre Strong (209 car, 1502 yds, 16 TD, 21 rec, 144 yds) and Isaiah Davis (42 car, 406 yds, 2 TD). Strong is atop the FCS in rushing and Davis has missed 8 games this season but is just as big of a playmaker as Strong. Both RBs can take it the distance if they get into open space. The SDSU WRs are led by the Janke Bros, Jaxon and Jadon. Both Jaxon Janke (55 rec, 894 yds, 3 TD) and Jadon Janke (34 rec, 535 yds, 8 TD) have good hands and are big targets, but for their seize it pales in comparison to their TEs. TE Tucker Kraft (53 rec, 612 yds, 6 TD) is a matchup nightmare but TE Zach Heins (19 rec, 202 yds, 6 TD) is even bigger with both playing key roles in the running and passing game.

Defensively the Jacks run a 4-3 defense and are a very good rush defense. Their strength is stopping the run and pass rush. The Jacks secondary is their lone weakness but they make up for it in the red zone. LBs Adam Bock (106 tkl, 9 TFL, 2.5 sack, 2 INT) and Isaiah Stalbird (57 tkl, 4.5 TFL) lead the defense in tackling and NT Caleb Sanders (27 tkl, 12 TFL, 6.5 sack) and DE Reece Winkelman (27 tkl, 11.5 TFL, 4.5 sack) leads the team in TFLs and sacks. The Jacks defense does have 18 picks, but 6 of them (yes, 6, that’s not a typo) came last week against the dungpilers so take it for what it’s worth.

SDSU’s K Cole Frahm (17/26 FG, 55/55 PAT) has had his struggles and is coming into this game off of a forgettable performance in windy conditions in the first round. Frahm has hit from 54 yards out and has had 2 FGs blocked. Most of his misses are from beyond 40 yards. PR/KR Tyler Feldkamp is averaging 19.7 yards a return but he did muff a punt last week that set up a dungpile TD early in the game.

This game is a matchup nightmare for the Hornet defense. While the Hornets have defended the run very well this season, the closest the Hornets have seen to what the Jacks run would be UNI, but the Jack RBs are far better than what the Panthers had in week 2. The Jacks also counter with a very efficient passing attack, so even if the Hornets can slow down the SDSU rushing attack, they’ll have to defend a mobile QB that has several talented and sizable targets at his disposal. This will be a tall order for the Hornets.

On the other side of the ball, I expect the Hornets to have success moving the ball, especially through the air. The Hornets have faced plenty of tough defenses this year in challenging circumstances and have fared well. I think a big key to the game will be the Hornets jumping out to an early lead and getting the Jack offense on their heels a bit. The Hornet offense cannot afford untimely mistakes and penalties and expect to win against a team as experienced and talented as SDSU.

I don’t see home field being much of an advantage for the Hornets as SDSU is a senior laden team with lots of postseason experience. The Hornets are going to need to play a flawless game to have a chance at a win, and even then I am having a hard time seeing the Hornets triumph. However, we haven’t enjoyed the ride this season only to pick against the Hornets when the odds appear stacked against them. I’m going with my emotions and picking a close Hornet win this weekend.

Stingers Up!
 
Excellent detailed write up SD. I made mention before that it looked like a pretty even matchup between teams. Advantage of homefield would probably be not having to travel. Even if you draw 18k it likely won’t match the hostility of the Fargodome where NDSU plays.

Our fan forum is sdsufans.com, team website is gojacks.com, @argusmattz is the Twitter for the beat writer out of Sioux Falls and search Jackrabbit Illustrated for blogs and podcasts. The last one is a fan run site with a lot of knowledge and discussion.
 
They did a pretty nice write up on Sac State, except for calling us a better version of UC Davis.

https://jackrabbitillustrated.com/2021/11/opponent-preview-sacramento-state.html
 
Yeah, I’m not liking this matchup at all. It’s gonna be super tough. Not what you want in a 1st round game.

Hopefully our offense continues to force defenses to “pick their poison” and we destroy them with whatever they ultimately picked.

From a Hornets perspective, this game may very well boil down to the game plan DC Andy Thompson comes up with and how his players execute it. If Thompson musters up one of his gems and his players limit SDST in anyway, I really like our chances.

Lastly, I really hope Pierre Williams is available and healthy for the game because just his presence on the field could give the Hornets offense a huge needed boost against a formidable opponent. Williams is so reliable and usually provides a few key plays.

Adding him to Marshell Martin, our standout frosh receivers and our rushing attack just makes it so hard for the defense to defend.

When the Hornets offense is fully healthy and playing well, I don’t believe there are many FCS offenses out there with as much versatility. They can do a bit of everything well.
 
Sac_hornets said:
They did a pretty nice write up on Sac State, except for calling us a better version of UC Davis.

https://jackrabbitillustrated.com/2021/11/opponent-preview-sacramento-state.html
Click to expand...

It’s a poorly researched piece.

“However, a starting QB switch following UNI seemingly jumpstarted the offense and they have managed to make the two quarterback system work for the remainder of the season.“

Sounds like something Super Hornet would have made up.

We have ran the same QB system all year. Even a lazy look at box scores tells you that.

Of course, the assumption that any of these fan publications actually do journalistic research is a gigantic reach I shouldn’t make.
 
BuckeyeHornetFan said:
Yeah, I’m not liking this matchup at all. It’s gonna be super tough. Not what you want in a 1st round game.

Hopefully our offense continues to force defenses to “pick their poison” and we destroy them with whatever they ultimately picked.

From a Hornets perspective, this game may very well boil down to the game plan DC Andy Thompson comes up with and how his players execute it. If Thompson musters up one of his gems and his players limit SDST in anyway, I really like our chances.

Lastly, I really hope Pierre Williams is available and healthy for the game because just his presence on the field could give the Hornets offense a huge needed boost against a formidable opponent. Williams is so reliable and usually provides a few key plays.

Adding him to Marshell Martin, our standout frosh receivers and our rushing attack just makes it so hard for the defense to defend.

When the Hornets offense is fully healthy and playing well, I don’t believe there are many FCS offenses out there with as much versatility. They can do a bit of everything well.
Click to expand...

I don’t mind the matchup, not guaranteeing a win either. I think it’s also a tough matchup for SDST. We need to prove ourselves in the playoffs, especially after 2019. If we beat SDST, it will give
us a lot of credibility within the FCS. Sac State should also feel very confident going into this game, but not cocky.

In the beginning of year, I think most of us weren’t sure this two quarterback system would work, now we have also seen the issues it causes for the opposition defense. The offensive line has been very solid.

I do think think that SDST will be our biggest test year to date, but absolutely doable. Must win for respect!
 
Sac_hornets said:
I don’t mind the matchup, not guaranteeing a win either. I think it’s also a tough matchup for SDST. We need to prove ourselves in the playoffs, especially after 2019. If we beat SDST, it will give
us a lot of credibility within the FCS. Sac State should also feel very confident going into this game, but not cocky.

In the beginning of year, I think most of us weren’t sure this two quarterback system would work, now we have also seen the issues it causes for the opposition defense. The offensive line has been very solid.

I do think think that SDST will be our biggest test year to date, but absolutely doable. Must win for respect!
Click to expand...

Good point about the QB play. I believe the o-line improvement is the biggest reason why it started working. The line has been this team’s unsung hero. Their improvement aligns with the start of the winning streak. Maybe even kinda started with the loss to CAL.
 
My ticket is bought and paid for, and will be waiting for me at Will Call. I confirmed that possibility with the Ticket Office before I bought it. Sac is still operating a Will Call, though that privilege DOES cost an extra $2. It stinks that CIF has decided to discriminate against people without smart phones; Sac State is NOT doing that.

FYI: The Ticket Office DID confirm that they will check vaxx cards; you can bring the original OR a photo-copy. While I didn't ask, a phone-copy would probably also be acceptable.

I fully expect a hard-fought Hornet victory, and I plan to be there to see every minute of it. I just don't think SDSU will be able to handle the QB shift while simultaneously having to deal with Skattebo AND cover Martin and the other receivers. I also don't think their QB will be able to handle Munchie and the others on our fine defense. And then when you add Sentkowski and Clark on special teams, it's going to be quite difficult for the Rabbits to beat us.
 
If our team is healthy. Hornets will spread out the SDSU defense. The running game needs to move the chains and the passes need to keep the Def Secondary nervous.
 
The two-deep was just released and shows Pierre Williams, BJ Perkinson, and Taylor Powell all returning from injury to start.
 
Kadeezy said:
The two-deep was just released and shows Pierre Williams, BJ Perkinson, and Taylor Powell all returning from injury to start.
Click to expand...

Tremendous news.

Skat should still be our #1 back IMO, but it’ll sure be nice to have Perk back to mix in with Fulcher. Having 2 of the 3 in the game at the same time is a nice option too.

Hopefully Williams isn’t rusty.
 
Kadeezy said:
The two-deep was just released and shows Pierre Williams, BJ Perkinson, and Taylor Powell all returning from injury to start.
Click to expand...

It doesn’t actually. Perkinson is listed as an OR with Skattebo

But thanks for trying.
 
stingthemgood said:
Kadeezy said:
The two-deep was just released and shows Pierre Williams, BJ Perkinson, and Taylor Powell all returning from injury to start.
Click to expand...

It doesn’t actually. Perkinson is listed as an OR with Skattebo

But thanks for trying.
Click to expand...

He wasn’t listed at all for the last two games. I understand what OR means daddy.
 
The Hornetsports preview. I find it interesting that we're currently on the best winning streak (8 games) in the D-I era and matched with our best winning streak of all time (last achieved in 1966). Also on the odd side: we have an 11-0 streak in the last two actually-played seasons when we LOSE the coin toss....

https://hornetsports.com/sports/fball/2021-22/releases/20211129st0i2i?fbclid=IwAR0bUA0KDCKv3iz8x7Jn94VFW2w-IMnITh0hgFP3J_9OoF-kcZDGUkYMk2g
 
We’ll know the outcome right away…

https://twitter.com/fcs_stats/status/1466010607732338691?s=21
 
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