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G5/FCS Trickledown Realignment…
- Thread starter Kadeezy
- Start date
HornetFootballFan
Active member
Rumor: Big 10 will be adding UW & Oregon from PAC12 and Clemson and Florida St from the ACC. WoW!!!
A move this big would certainly force PAC12 to thoroughly take top echelon of MWC (SDSU, Boise St, Fresno St, Colorado St, Texas (SMU or Rice?) BOTH? Maybe add to 14? UNLV?
A move this big would certainly force PAC12 to thoroughly take top echelon of MWC (SDSU, Boise St, Fresno St, Colorado St, Texas (SMU or Rice?) BOTH? Maybe add to 14? UNLV?
HornetFootballFan
Active member
Rumor: Big 10 will be adding UW & Oregon from PAC12 and Clemson and Florida St from the ACC. WoW!!!
A move this big would certainly force PAC12 to thoroughly take top echelon of MWC (SDSU, Boise St, Fresno St, Colorado St, Texas (SMU or Rice?) BOTH? Maybe add to 14? UNLV?
A move this big would certainly force PAC12 to thoroughly take top echelon of MWC (SDSU, Boise St, Fresno St, Colorado St, Texas (SMU or Rice?) BOTH? Maybe add to 14? UNLV?
Kadeezy
Active member
HornetFootballFan said:
It seems like the Pac-12 officially died today. UW and Oregon to the Big 10 (18?) and Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah to the Big 12 (15?).
Stanford and/or Cal might have the backing to go Indy a la Notre Dame, but not sure. Wazzu and Oregon State might have to beg to get into the MWC.
OR, probably least likely... The Pac-8 comes back with:
Wazzu
OSU
Stanford
Cal
San Diego State
UNLV
SMU
Boise State
The buyout to leave the MWC before 2025 is $35M, a price tag none of those schools could afford. Maybe the MWC waives the fee in the interest of long-term stability, and locks in Sac State, UCD, Montana and Montana State through 2030 or something?
iSac
Active member
The Pac-12 shakeup is amazing to watch. Last year's UCLA/USC departure announcement was a big shift and now these even bigger losses. The "Conference of Champions" has been such a pillar on the NCAA landscape for years that always had good geographic pairings of teams. Cal/Stanford, UCLA/USC, UA/ASU, etc. Checked in on OSU and WSU boards and there's definitely a feeling a desperation. Between major conference changes like this, wild transfer portals, and NIL $ it's definitely weird times. Will be interesting to see where things go over the coming months.
HornetFootballFan
Active member
This played out as expected. PAC12 floundered once usc & UclA announced. Instead of making strategic moves that sat idle with arrogance and they got picked apart., lesson to all!
HornetHope
Active member
Kadeezy said:
This is a train wreck. Possible a PAC 4 MWC merger. I do not see PAC 4 paying buyout clause fees. I think Orr saw this mess coming and said let’s hold tight for the shake out. I think the losers are the G 5 conference teams, no way these teams make the playoff rankings, but hey they can become champs of the Swirlee Bowl, against Southeast northwest school of mines and rocks or some other G5 nobody knows. These moves are designed to kill off G5 football.
HornetHope said:
I’m gonna take a shot and predict Stanford and Cal will not accept MWC membership. I see them going Indy and waiting to see if Big 10 goes 20. I can even see them getting Big 12 looks when the conference is ready to move again. Maybe ACC gives a look if FSU drama continues??? I can see them doing football Indy and then going WCC or even American (total shot in the dark) for in Olympic sports. Maybe they will go MWC for Olympics? I see them having no interest in Big West.
OSU and WSU will most likely go MWC. I’m interested to know if they can, and would, bring the Pac name along to the MW? The name itself has a lot of importance and clout.
This whole situation leaves the MWC as the only western based FBS conference. Will there be demand or opportunity to create another one? It’ll be interesting to see. I wonder if this causes the WAC to look more westward or open a door for the BSC or another to “move up” with NCAA permission. Could also just be me overthinking things (most likely it’s me overthinking things).
Kadeezy
Active member
Interesting note, if 9 of the 11 schools decide to leave the MWC, the $35M exit fee is waived. So that would leave the MWC with at most 2 existing members, maybe the least desirable ones (San Jose State and New Mexico?).
I don’t think the Pac has enough smarts or $ to break up the MWC. It would be funny though.
I don’t think the Pac has enough smarts or $ to break up the MWC. It would be funny though.
Crazy how all this is shaking out. I was wrong on the Pac. I didn't think they would have a mass exodus out the door. The Athletic had a good article on the Pac. They were atop the college FB world in '09/'10 and pissed it all away. The Pac has only themselves to blame for the situation they are in. The implosion of the Pac is a testament of what arrogant and short sighted leadership can lead to.
The good news is we are finally seeing the power conferences consolidate. The faster that happens, the faster everyone else can sort out their final spots on the hierarchy of college FB.
Stanford and Cal have a lot to lose by going Indy. Indy teams don't get a cut of the playoff monies. It might not be a big deal to Stanford, but Cal has a huge stadium note to pay off, they probably can't pass on any revenue streams. Of the 4 Pac leftovers, Cal has to be in the worst position.
Not buying into the last Pac teams to the MW narrative, their arrogance won't allow it. If the B12 or B1G doesn't throw them a lifeline, they have an opportunity to be a "best of the rest" conference and poach the best of the AAC and MW. Even a mortally wounded Pac has more positives than the MW. The Pac brand will always trump the MW brand on the west coast, the Pac will maintain its autonomy status until the next playoff contract, the Pac will retain all the NCAA payouts (assuming they find a way to stay alive) and I've seen internet claims that the Pac is sitting on $100M. To top it off, any TV/streaming deal they can muster together could pass the current AAC ($8M/school) and MW ($5M/school) TV deals. The reality is the top programs in the AAC and MW have a lot to gain by going to a revamped Pac. A "best of the rest" conference likely gets a bid to the expanded playoffs. Totally worth the risk for those AAC and MW programs with high aspirations.
How this all pertains to Sac State? I have mixed feelings on going to the MW. It really all depends on who would still be there when the dust settles. If Fresno, SJSU and Nevada can't get into the revamped Pac, then I think it is worth the investment to go to the MW. If the MW has no geographic benefits/in state rivals then I see no point. Why play in a more expensive version of the BSC and swap trips to Pocatello, Flagstaff, and Bozeman for Laramie, Albuquerque, and Logan?
Interesting times ahead.
The good news is we are finally seeing the power conferences consolidate. The faster that happens, the faster everyone else can sort out their final spots on the hierarchy of college FB.
Stanford and Cal have a lot to lose by going Indy. Indy teams don't get a cut of the playoff monies. It might not be a big deal to Stanford, but Cal has a huge stadium note to pay off, they probably can't pass on any revenue streams. Of the 4 Pac leftovers, Cal has to be in the worst position.
Not buying into the last Pac teams to the MW narrative, their arrogance won't allow it. If the B12 or B1G doesn't throw them a lifeline, they have an opportunity to be a "best of the rest" conference and poach the best of the AAC and MW. Even a mortally wounded Pac has more positives than the MW. The Pac brand will always trump the MW brand on the west coast, the Pac will maintain its autonomy status until the next playoff contract, the Pac will retain all the NCAA payouts (assuming they find a way to stay alive) and I've seen internet claims that the Pac is sitting on $100M. To top it off, any TV/streaming deal they can muster together could pass the current AAC ($8M/school) and MW ($5M/school) TV deals. The reality is the top programs in the AAC and MW have a lot to gain by going to a revamped Pac. A "best of the rest" conference likely gets a bid to the expanded playoffs. Totally worth the risk for those AAC and MW programs with high aspirations.
How this all pertains to Sac State? I have mixed feelings on going to the MW. It really all depends on who would still be there when the dust settles. If Fresno, SJSU and Nevada can't get into the revamped Pac, then I think it is worth the investment to go to the MW. If the MW has no geographic benefits/in state rivals then I see no point. Why play in a more expensive version of the BSC and swap trips to Pocatello, Flagstaff, and Bozeman for Laramie, Albuquerque, and Logan?
Interesting times ahead.
Latest rumor is 3 or all 4 of the Pac schools considering a merger with MWC. Stanford debating whether to go independent. However, they would look to cut out 3-4 schools. Schools mentioned are Nevada, Hawaii and sigh… San Jose State.
Should this happen, a host of scenarios bloom in the realignment game.
Should this happen, a host of scenarios bloom in the realignment game.
HornetFootballFan
Active member
We are seeing 100 yrs of college football being completely re-shuffled. Hoping we find a way into the mix. I’d like Sac State to play those home / road exchange games w other FBS locals. Fresno St, Reno, San Jose St. That would be fun to finally get to host those local games.
Hoping the AD and new Pres are doing their work behind the scenes through all of this mess. Though PAC 4 or whatever it is now is a pipe dream, it really shouldn't be. Not if you consider the size of the Sacramento market and most of the realignment being about tv money for football. Sac State already better at football and a bigger market than the bottom feeders in the MW.
Most likely scenario is the MWC for Sac State if they do move up though. If for nothing else, CAL and Stanford probably not wanting to be in a conference with a bunch of CSU schools. But thinking their academics was enough to make them important in the football/NCAA world is the reason they got left behind.
Most likely scenario is the MWC for Sac State if they do move up though. If for nothing else, CAL and Stanford probably not wanting to be in a conference with a bunch of CSU schools. But thinking their academics was enough to make them important in the football/NCAA world is the reason they got left behind.
Kadeezy
Active member
https://twitter.com/expansionrumors/status/1691008069587861505?s=42
Best possible outcome for us is on the horizon if the Pac-4 helps MWC negotiate a big group buyout. For those that want to move up (like me), this is the best case scenario for us to be solid candidates to jump up with the Montanas and Maybe Davis.0
Best possible outcome for us is on the horizon if the Pac-4 helps MWC negotiate a big group buyout. For those that want to move up (like me), this is the best case scenario for us to be solid candidates to jump up with the Montanas and Maybe Davis.0
Agree that our only hope at FBS is for the Pac to survive and poach a few MW teams to make room for us. Best case would be a landing spot in the MW with FSU, SJSU, and Nevada. 2 of those 3 will definitely not be poached.
That said, I don't see Stanford and Cal relinquishing their academic arrogance and allowing themselves to be in the same conference as Fresno and especially Boise State. I could see them swallowing their pride if the bag man says they have to take Fresno for some TV money, but no way in hell will they agree to share a conference with Boise State.
The buyout costs are overblown. The MW buyout halves in one year and is virtually nothing after 2 years. This means any MW team can join the Pac for the '25 season at a discount. The AAC buyout costs aren't as exorbent as the MW, which means Pac survival occurs by poaching the AAC for '24 and poaching the MW for '25. Pac will have a waiver to remain a conference while they await their desired candidates for the '25 season so being below the FBS minimum of 8 full members won't be an issue.
The way I see it, ironically enough any possibility of a Pac rebuild depends on how committed Stanford and Cal are in the short term and how willing interested Pac members will be to join a conference whose 2 biggest names will bolt at the first inkling of an invite to the B1G or Big12.
SI listed some targets here:
https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/multiple-programs-have-asked-to-join-the-pac-12-following-colorado-departure#gid=ci02c56e7fb0012467&pid=smu
That said, I don't see Stanford and Cal relinquishing their academic arrogance and allowing themselves to be in the same conference as Fresno and especially Boise State. I could see them swallowing their pride if the bag man says they have to take Fresno for some TV money, but no way in hell will they agree to share a conference with Boise State.
The buyout costs are overblown. The MW buyout halves in one year and is virtually nothing after 2 years. This means any MW team can join the Pac for the '25 season at a discount. The AAC buyout costs aren't as exorbent as the MW, which means Pac survival occurs by poaching the AAC for '24 and poaching the MW for '25. Pac will have a waiver to remain a conference while they await their desired candidates for the '25 season so being below the FBS minimum of 8 full members won't be an issue.
The way I see it, ironically enough any possibility of a Pac rebuild depends on how committed Stanford and Cal are in the short term and how willing interested Pac members will be to join a conference whose 2 biggest names will bolt at the first inkling of an invite to the B1G or Big12.
SI listed some targets here:
https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/multiple-programs-have-asked-to-join-the-pac-12-following-colorado-departure#gid=ci02c56e7fb0012467&pid=smu
If CalFord, OSU and WSU remain in Pac, I can see them being associated with Air Force academically and only SDSU because of their new stadium/BBall run.
There is no way CalFord would be in the same league as Boise, SJSU, Fresno, Utah State, Nevada's, Wyoming, New Mex. Wont happen.
The only MWC benefit of adding Sac State would be TV market and a potential travelling partner for Davis. We all are aware of the laughable facility deficiency. I dont see that improving. Davis would be chosen all day, any day if they are looking only for the Sac market.
Cal Poly is screwed if that happens.
There is no way CalFord would be in the same league as Boise, SJSU, Fresno, Utah State, Nevada's, Wyoming, New Mex. Wont happen.
The only MWC benefit of adding Sac State would be TV market and a potential travelling partner for Davis. We all are aware of the laughable facility deficiency. I dont see that improving. Davis would be chosen all day, any day if they are looking only for the Sac market.
Cal Poly is screwed if that happens.
I'm sure if Sac State were invited to the bigs, it would be contingent upon them using Golden 1 for basketball and partnering with Republic FC on that downtown stadium. There are already rumblings of Sac State playing football at the new stadium when built.
Moving to a bigger conference may also give the president the courage to pull the trigger on raising fees to pay for an on campus basketball arena.
Also, Davis would have to expand their football stadium to play FBS. Hornet Stadium is already large enough. So Davis has the basketball facility, but not football. Sac State has football, but not basketball.
Moving to a bigger conference may also give the president the courage to pull the trigger on raising fees to pay for an on campus basketball arena.
Also, Davis would have to expand their football stadium to play FBS. Hornet Stadium is already large enough. So Davis has the basketball facility, but not football. Sac State has football, but not basketball.
Hornet25 said:
There has to be some investment by the school into something permenant. Leasing stadiums is like leasing a car, you have no equity and all it takes is a couple of bad years and attendance wanes to have the school pull the plug and walk away. If the school is serious longterm, they will need some skin in the game, ie. on campus facilities. Meanwhile with leasing elsewhere the current on campus facilities fall into disrepair ala UOP.
People see this investment and take you seriously. Otherwise, it is just another half ass attempt.
