Fun analysis, ISUNorth.
I would love to predict us going 16-0-0 this season, and heck, while I’m at it, I may as well predict we go all the way in the NCAAs. As much as I love this team, this is far, far from reality. But heck, we may as well dream.
Realistically, we should consider a couple of things. First, the schedule this year is incredibly weak compared to the last two years. Two years ago, we played five teams that were ranked among the top 15 in the west: Arizona State, Cal State Fullerton, Utah, Washington State and Gonzaga, and recorded three ties and two one-goal losses, one in double overtime. Last year we faced BYU and San Diego (who both finished in the top 20 nationally,) Colorado College (who was regionally ranked in the top 15,) and perennially tough Pepperdine and Gonzaga. This year, the only team we are playing who cracked the top 100 last year is New Mexico. This years overall record should be significantly better than last year’s disaster.
To our disadvantage, we have a team decimated with attrition and injuries, and coming off a poor showing last year. Right now, we have more healthy freshman available for the field than veterans. Based on this alone, if I did not know the potential of these players, I would pick ISU dead last in the conference, which we may well see the coaches do later this week. Of course, this may work to our advantage as some teams may underestimate us.
What makes this exercise extremely difficult is that we have no idea how the freshman class will pan out. If they jump in at a dead run, we could far surpass my expectations. If they have a hard time adapting to college play, this will be a long, painful season. Plus, soccer is a crazy sport full of weird breaks… very unpredictable.
Here is what I would consider a reasonable prediction (maybe optimistically reasonable) for the coming season. I, too, will leave out the exhibition game, which should be a cakewalk for the Bengals.
New Mexico – tough start for ISU. Our toughest opponent of the year and we meet them with virtually no game experience for over half the team. 0-1-0.
New Mexico State - a first year team with more freshmen than ISU. We should walk away with a win on the road. 1-1-0
SUU – This team is getting better every year and we missed playing them last year. This team still struggles recruiting. Should be another road win. 2-1-0
Maine - Maine will have a tough road trip and a difficult time at altitude. ISU should be starting to gel by this game and will earn a win in their home opener. 3-1-0
Idaho – Back on the road at a neutral site. ISU needs to pay back Idaho for last year. ISU was the better team but got a couple of bad breaks. (We were their only win on the year for the Vandals.) The Bengals will play this one tough, as a shot at the Governor’s Cup may be their strongest bet for glory this year. ISU wins by two goals. 4-1-0
Boise State – Here are two teams that are evenly matched. We handled them in the spring (two years running) and have won three of four over the past two years (including spring.) Boise has the home field advantage, ISU is fighting for in state respect. Too close to call. 4-1-1 (But beating the Broncos and winning the Governor’s Cup is a very do-able goal for the Bengals.)
Wyoming – This will be an incredibly tough game on the road. We eked out a tie against them in Pocatello last year, and this is a team that may have a shot at the Mountain West. They play physical and they play mean. Plus, these are about the most abusive coaches and fans in the west. Close call, but I give the edge to Wyoming. 4-2-1.
UVU – This is an up and coming Utah team that has improved incredibly over the last two years. I felt they gave us almost as good a game on the road last year as BYU did that same weekend. We may have a home field advantage, but I am not sure we can win this one. I call a tie. 4-2-2
USU – Utah State will be out for blood against ISU after losing to us last year. These two teams are very evenly matched. Both teams will threaten, but defense will prevail. Mark this one as a tie. 4-2-3
Montana - We get to play Montana at home this year, and hopefully in better weather than last. This team has five very talented returning players. This is our conference opener and the team should be solid by now and have some confidence with a winning record. ISU takes a narrow win. 5-2-3
EWU – This team has given ISU troubles over the past two years. It will a be tough road game and they have some strong returning talent. ISU could win this one, but I need to throw in a tie or two, because ISU is so good at producing ties. 5-2-4
Northern Arizona - This will be one of the toughest two teams in the conference this year. After winning the conference championship, they return nine of eleven starters, and eight of those received all conference honors. ISU only lost by one goal last year, but almost the entire game was played on the ISU defensive end of the field, and only a remarkable defense kept this one from being a blowout. Luckily, we get to play them at home, but I do not think that will be a big enough of boost to get us past them. 5-3-4
Northern Colorado. – Last year was a complete fluke. N Colo launched five shots on goal in the first half, and scored on every one. Most (if not all) of the shots were stoppable and it looked like we did not even have a player in goal. I think either Bailey Williams or Kat Ford would have left the first half unscathed instead of down 5-0. (Kat Ford got through the second half only giving up one goal for a team that was demoralized. This year, all ISU. 6-3-4
Portland State – We have gone longer without a win against PSU than any other team in the Big Sky. This year, Portland State returns one conference first team player, three conference second team players, and two honorable mentions: a solid core to build a team around. This a fun field to play in – a professional baseball stadium in downtown Portland. But the field has a fast artificial turf that ISU will be totally unfamiliar with. This game will be ugly, and I don’t think we will walk away with the win. 6-4-4
Sac State – Sac St is always tough, but they lost some real talent this last year. We beat them at home last year and tied them the last time in Sacramento. I think we are headed for a defensive battle and another tie game. 6-4-5
Weber State – Although Weber graduated more talent than any team in the conference, they have had a fantastic recruiting year – including adding a transfer student from Santa Clara that was in the top five nationally as a senior and a transfer from the University of Utah who will add tremendous depth to the defense or mid-field. I think Weber may claim wins this year against the likes of BYU, Oregon and Washington State. We may see between either Weber or NAU, the first time ever that a Big Sky Team cracks the top 15 in the west. We play them at home, but I do not think we can match up. 6-5-5
Note: this scenario would give ISU a 2-3-2 record in the conference, which I think will squeak them into the Big Sky Tournament. This is assuming the team meshes well and keeps a positive attitude. If they make the tournament, it would be a near impossible road to make the NCAAs, but anyone can win two games, so anything is possible.
Thanks, ISU North. This was a fun exercise. It would be good to hear what some of the other fans think. This should be a fun and exciting season, and I am hoping we turn our luck around. However, this is really a building season. If we can make serious improvement, we will be in great shape going into 2010, as we have a huge new class of recruits who will get lots of experience, and we will only loose one player next year who has been a consistent starter over the past three years.
SIX DAYS TO GO!!!!
