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How realistic are the playoffs?

J

jas

Active member
Even if the guys win out, do the Viks have a realistic chance of being selected... or is it likely that 6 D1 victories keeps them out.

With their only losses to TCU, a 2 point loss to #2 MSU and 6 points to #8 Montana, seems like a playoff team to me, but I keep reading about this unwritten rule of needing 7 D1 wins to be an at-large bid. Winning out, and PSU would have 6 D1 wins.

I know NC and Weber are far from guarantees, but just wondering what you thought about the playoff chances. Either way, fun to be talking playoffs in November!
 
As I suggested in another thread, I don't think we're getting in with two wins against lower division teams. I do think we are one of the 20 best teams in the country, though.
 
I posted this on the other board last week.

At-large selection criteria includes:

-The win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule” and that fewer than seven wins in Division I play “may place a team in jeopardy of being selected.”

-The selection committee “may give more consideration to those teams who have played all Division I opponents.”

-Also, if a conference is guaranteed an automatic bid in the playoffs, and does not receive one, an at-large bid is given.

I would say that we'd be given consideration for playing up (TCU) if we can get to 8-3, but if history repeats itself we won't get in like in 2006 where we were 7-4 and played up three times.
 
VikThunderous said:
Hopefully the AD does smarter scheduling in the future.
Click to expand...

I think that one of the games was scheduled very late due to Colorado backing out of a game with us. Not much you can do when you have a late back out by another program. This does me wonder if we actually had TCU and Colorado scheduled at some point as well for the 2011 season.
 
You are correct Martymoose, Colorado dropped PSU late into the scheduling process. Schools were not available to play PSU on that open date, I understand. The Oregonian carried an article regarding PSU Football team having to pick up a lower level team. I sure hope Colorado agrees to play us next year, that would give us two PAC-12 teams on our schedule. I think the coaches and AD did the best they could do considering the situation this year.
 
If you guys are able to win your last two and finish 8-3, I think you deserve a shot and should be looked at. Of course, having only 6 1-A wins really hurts. Southern Oregon only being an NAIA and Williamette being DIII really, really hurts, and that's what may keep you out. If those two were at least DII, it might be a different story. But you never know -- looking at this past weekend's results, #13 James Madison, #15 Jackson State, #18 Jacksonville State, #19 William & Mary, #20 Tenn Tech, and #21 Indiana State all lost. Also, teams not ranked but still receiving more votes than PSU that lost this weekend were Cal-Poly, Massachusetts, and Albany. All that plays into your favor in hopefully receiving more votes this week in the Sports Network poll.

But again, that's not the only thing the voters look at -- they use your GPI (Gridiron Power Index) as well. Last time I looked, you were at #27, which bodes well for you. You will beat Northern Colorado handily next week (probably won't help your GPI, but another win helps get more points in the TSN poll), and should be able to beat Weber at home to finish the regular season. It will be a stretch to get one of those 20 playoff spots, but it's not impossible. Not that I would care to face that pistol offense again in the playoffs, but I am rooting for you guys.
 
Old Skool Cat said:
If you guys are able to win your last two and finish 8-3, I think you deserve a shot and should be looked at. Of course, having only 6 1-A wins really hurts. Southern Oregon only being an NAIA and Williamette being DIII really, really hurts, and that's what may keep you out. If those two were at least DII, it might be a different story. But you never know -- looking at this past weekend's results, #13 James Madison, #15 Jackson State, #18 Jacksonville State, #19 William & Mary, #20 Tenn Tech, and #21 Indiana State all lost. Also, teams not ranked but still receiving more votes than PSU that lost this weekend were Cal-Poly, Massachusetts, and Albany. All that plays into your favor in hopefully receiving more votes this week in the Sports Network poll.

But again, that's not the only thing the voters look at -- they use your GPI (Gridiron Power Index) as well. Last time I looked, you were at #27, which bodes well for you. You will beat Northern Colorado handily next week (probably won't help your GPI, but another win helps get more points in the TSN poll), and should be able to beat Weber at home to finish the regular season. It will be a stretch to get one of those 20 playoff spots, but it's not impossible. Not that I would care to face that pistol offense again in the playoffs, but I am rooting for you guys.
Click to expand...

Thanks Cat. I agree that it is a possibility to make the playoffs. But really, really unlikely. First we'd have to win out because right now it is pure conjecture.
 
martymoose said:
VikThunderous said:
Hopefully the AD does smarter scheduling in the future.
Click to expand...

I think that one of the games was scheduled very late due to Colorado backing out of a game with us. Not much you can do when you have a late back out by another program. This does me wonder if we actually had TCU and Colorado scheduled at some point as well for the 2011 season.
Click to expand...

I don't remember the Colorado game. Did they buy us out? Moving forward, we have to be very careful about scheduling games. Western Oregon is at least DII. Southern is a level lower.
 
A win today against UNC gives us a win-or-go-home game next week against Weber. Even though we most likely won't get into the playoffs, it's still been a good run this year.
 
We were #19 in the GPI last week and won this week.

It looks like four GPI ranked teams, and six FCS ranked teams ahead of us lost.

Also, I think that the TCU win should help us on the computer rankings that make up the GPI. Not 100% sure.

I have to think that we may just crack the top 25 this week.
 
With all this 7 D1 wins talk, what is the benefit of playing a lower division team? I understand scheduling FBS games even though they're pretty much an automatic loss because you get the payout that helps fund the program. But PSU seems to play down a game every year.

It's not just us. A number of Big Sky schools had both an FBS and a lower division school on their schedules this year. Montana, for example, had Western Oregon and Tennessee this year. Is it economics or really just that hard to get an FCS team to play because of geography?
 
jas said:
With all this 7 D1 wins talk, what is the benefit of playing a lower division team? I understand scheduling FBS games even though they're pretty much an automatic loss because you get the payout that helps fund the program. But PSU seems to play down a game every year.

It's not just us. A number of Big Sky schools had both an FBS and a lower division school on their schedules this year. Montana, for example, had Western Oregon and Tennessee this year. Is it economics or really just that hard to get an FCS team to play because of geography?
Click to expand...

There is a big difference. Montana played Western Oregon. Western is a DII school. We played Southern Oregon, a NAIA school. A level lower. Plus we had to add Willamette. We should never schedule Southern Oregon. If we ever need to schedule down then schedule Western Oregon.
 
It's the location of FCS programs that drives the scheduling of lower level teams.

There are 126 FCS programs and I think there are five that are west of Kansas that are not in the Big Sky. Working home and home deals with east coast schools is difficult since we, and in most cases they, can't offer much of a payout.

Staying on the west coast to keep travel costs low means we either need to schedule up, or schedule down.
 
With so few FCS teams in the West and PSU having to schedule up or down a division, it is almost a lose-lose situation. If we schedule up we risk the chance of losing and not having enough Div. I wins to make the play-offs. On the other hand, if we schedule down we could have the win but once again not have enough Div. I wins to make the play-offs. The answer of course is to travel East to play FCS teams but that isn't likely to happen with the budget cuts to the athletic program. At least by scheduling up we bring in needed cash for PSU programs, which I understand is much needed. It has to be tough on the coach and A.D. trying to schedule with this scenario.
 
We really only started to schedule down regularly in 2008 when we scheduled DII Western Oregon. (Probably because we were losing so much.) In 2009, we scheduled NAIA Southern Oregon. That is the first time we scheduled someone below DII in forever.

I can name 4 FCS teams on the west coast: Cal Davis, Cal Poly, Southern Utah, University of San Diego. We used to regularly schedule Cal Davis. Not sure why we stopped.

Scheduling debates may be a moot since Cal Davis, Cal Poly, Southern Utah and North Dakota are joining the conference next year. Does anyone know what future schedules will look like with those schools in the conference?
 
VikThunderous said:
We really only started to schedule down regularly in 2008 when we scheduled DII Western Oregon. (Probably because we were losing so much.) In 2009, we scheduled NAIA Southern Oregon. That is the first time we scheduled someone below DII in forever.

I can name 4 FCS teams on the west coast: Cal Davis, Cal Poly, Southern Utah, University of San Diego. We used to regularly schedule Cal Davis. Not sure why we stopped.

Scheduling debates may be a moot since Cal Davis, Cal Poly, Southern Utah and North Dakota are joining the conference next year. Does anyone know what future schedules will look like with those schools in the conference?
Click to expand...

Here's a bit on the scheduling for 2012-2015.

Sounds like Fullerton is aware of the scheduling issues in the west for FCS, so there's the option of playing Big Sky schools as non-conference in years that there is not a scheduled conference game. Seems a bit weird, but at least it provides some flexibility.

http://www.kfbb.com/sports/local/Big-Sky-Announces-Conference-Football-Schedules-for-2012-2013-2014-and-2015-120891079.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
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