Illinois State

[kalm]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

 

[KWCAT]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

You guys must be way more bored than me. Thanks for the reading material.

 

[dudeitsaid]

Regular Season stat comparisons

Scoring offense
EWU 44.6 (1st in FCS)
ISU 38.7 (11th in FCS)

Scoring Defense
ISU 18.9 (13th in FCS)
EWU 30 (84 in FCS) - the only team lower in the playoffs was MSU.

ISU is ranked in the top 20 in both categories, and impressive feat. However, SLU was 7th in D, 4th in O, and lost in the first round to SHSU who was 73rd in D, 15th in O. The games aren't played on the stat sheet, though they are interesting to look at.

Total yards per game
EWU 522.8
ISU 451.5

Yards allowed
ISU 320.1
EWU 441.3

Rushing Offense
ISU 241.4
EWU 190.5

Rushing D
ISU 119.3
EWU 166.3

Passing O
EWU 332.3
ISU 210.2

Passing D
ISU 200.8
EWU 275.1

TOP
EWU 31:46
ISU 31.13

Turnover Margin
EWU .75
ISU .09
If it does come down to turnovers, at least that statistic favors us slightly!

1st Down/game
EWU 26.3
ISU 22.3

3rd Down %
EWU 48.6
ISU 48.6

3rd down D
ISU 34.3
EWU 40.8

4th downs made
EWU 16 (64%)
ISU 4 (66.7) - more conservative than us? More willing to punt? EWU will go for it on 4th more than almost any other team in the FCS.

Sacks
ISU 2.91/game
EWU 2/game

TFL's
ISU 5.7/game
EWU 5.6/game

Red Zone Offense
EWU 96% (truly 100% till this last game, with the INT into the end zone. We had two kneel downs during the season to end the game. In any case, EWU is very good in the red zone.)
ISU 81.4

Red Zone D
ISU 69%
EWU 88.9 (Yikes!!! One of the worst in the FCS in this area. Our huge advantage in Red Zone Offense is somewhat negated by being one of the worst in the FCS in red zone D over the year)

 

[KWCAT]

Don't think Illinois could beat bama! lol

http://myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/default.asp?sport=CFB&winner=Montana&loser=Alabama&year=2014&method=2#.VIjYIcstDIV" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Redbird 4th & short]

To those who wonder why I keep toggling between my thoughts on ISU vs EWU and then digress into MVFC vs Big Sky, is simply because those are all the most direct points of comparison between ISU and EWU. Granted it is one step removed from playing head to head, but it is still somewhat relevant when trying to understand who might be better; and then delving into why. For me, stats are under-rated .. and I fully understand no single game stats mean much of anything. You can always rationalize why someone won after game is over and you comb the stats. On a much broader level, that is what I am doing when trying to understand why MVFC is 8-1 against Big Sky. And then looking at things like what we each do well and don't do well. The chicken or egg debate over Big Sky Passing Stats on Offense vs Defense is certainly thought provoking.

Anyway, I'm just explaining this time, not arguing. You guys have been great to banter with .. apologies for using up so many bytes on you board. Just be thankful you aren't on redbird fan page every week and have to put up with me.

Going to be a fun game .. next time, we'll invite you to our place !!!!

 

[Redbird 4th & short]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

Got it, and I did dig deeper looking at the stats of each game between MVFC and Big Sky. We not only went 8-1, but scores and stats compared very favorably almost every game. I won't repeat those stats, but I've covered much of that earlier.

Just trying to understand Big Sky. So while EWU played no MVFC teams and ISU played no Big Sky teams, we both won our respective conferences .. which means the inter-conference games/scores are all we got and they are only one game removed from each of us.

 

[Redbird 4th & short]

Regular Season stat comparisons

Scoring offense
EWU 44.6 (1st in FCS)
ISU 38.7 (11th in FCS)

Scoring Defense
ISU 18.9 (13th in FCS)
EWU 30 (84 in FCS) - the only team lower in the playoffs was MSU.

ISU is ranked in the top 20 in both categories, and impressive feat. However, SLU was 7th in D, 4th in O, and lost in the first round to SHSU who was 73rd in D, 15th in O. The games aren't played on the stat sheet, though they are interesting to look at.

Total yards per game
EWU 522.8
ISU 451.5

Yards allowed
ISU 320.1
EWU 441.3

Rushing Offense
ISU 241.4
EWU 190.5

Rushing D
ISU 119.3
EWU 166.3

Passing O
EWU 332.3
ISU 210.2

Passing D
ISU 200.8
EWU 275.1

TOP
EWU 31:46
ISU 31.13

Turnover Margin
EWU .75
ISU .09
If it does come down to turnovers, at least that statistic favors us slightly!

1st Down/game
EWU 26.3
ISU 22.3

3rd Down %
EWU 48.6
ISU 48.6

3rd down D
ISU 34.3
EWU 40.8

4th downs made
EWU 16 (64%)
ISU 4 (66.7) - more conservative than us? More willing to punt? EWU will go for it on 4th more than almost any other team in the FCS.

Sacks
ISU 2.91/game
EWU 2/game

TFL's
ISU 5.7/game
EWU 5.6/game

Red Zone Offense
EWU 96% (truly 100% till this last game, with the INT into the end zone. We had two kneel downs during the season to end the game. In any case, EWU is very good in the red zone.)
ISU 81.4

Red Zone D
ISU 69%
EWU 88.9 (Yikes!!! One of the worst in the FCS in this area. Our huge advantage in Red Zone Offense is somewhat negated by being one of the worst in the FCS in red zone D over the year)

Nice to have you stoop to my level :shock: :shock:

SELA schedule was pretty weak, ranked about 50 by Massey and Sagarin. But they also got a tough draw given how SHSU improved over the season. SELA had 4 patsie games with teams ranked well over 280, that they ran up scored on.

I will partly acknowledge your point about SELA stats. We wound up with 2 patsies this year after Ball St bought us out of our game. So we had 2 games padding our stats. But once we got thru MVFC, our SOS was up to 10th in FCS.

 

[luckyintheorder]

To those who wonder why I keep toggling between my thoughts on ISU vs EWU and then digress into MVFC vs Big Sky, is simply because those are all the most direct points of comparison between ISU and EWU. Granted it is one step removed from playing head to head, but it is still somewhat relevant when trying to understand who might be better; and then delving into why. For me, stats are under-rated .. and I fully understand no single game stats mean much of anything. You can always rationalize why someone won after game is over and you comb the stats. On a much broader level, that is what I am doing when trying to understand why MVFC is 8-1 against Big Sky. And then looking at things like what we each do well and don't do well. The chicken or egg debate over Big Sky Passing Stats on Offense vs Defense is certainly thought provoking.

Anyway, I'm just explaining this time, not arguing. You guys have been great to banter with .. apologies for using up so many bytes on you board. Just be thankful you aren't on redbird fan page every week and have to put up with me.

Going to be a fun game .. next time, we'll invite you to our place !!!!

just had a thought about your dalliance about the conference head to head. The ACC was 4 - 1 against the SEC this year, MVC 8 -1 over BSC; does the conference head to head means anything if FSU was playing Bama this week or when the Redbirds face Eastern? Another thought, don't spend a lot of time on the big fan site Championship Subdivision Football, but this type of thread (conf head to head) would do pretty well out there as well. Have to say, it's been a joy. Must be Christmas.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSyx6DaUwxA[/youtube]

 

[kalm]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

Got it, and I did dig deeper looking at the stats of each game between MVFC and Big Sky. We not only went 8-1, but scores and stats compared very favorably almost every game. I won't repeat those stats, but I've covered much of that earlier.

Just trying to understand Big Sky. So while EWU played no MVFC teams and ISU played no Big Sky teams, we both won our respective conferences .. which means the inter-conference games/scores are all we got and they are only one game removed from each of us.

And your conference basically matched Eastern's record against the Big Sky. SDSU with a healthy Sumner kicked the crap out of a 2-10 SUU early in the season before the QB change, a Cal Poly who just had 5 players (2 key ones) kicked off the team in August, and a depleted MSU in the playoffs by one score. 5-7 MSU dominated 5-7 UND, meh. NDSU beat Montana and a 2-10 Weber (not all that convincingly). USD kept it respectable against Montana and beat NAU.

Also keep in mind that only 2 of those 9 games were played at Big Sky teams with winning records.

Considering the matchups, time of they season they were played, injuries, and where they were played, the only results that really surprise much are the margins of victory in the Missouri State - UND and Poly-SDSU games, and USD over NAU.

Now, going back to Massey, one of its flaws really shows up in ranking YSU 12, WIU 14, and SIU 16. Collectively they were .500 with only one win against a playoff team (YSU over a Sumner-less SDSU) and their combined OOC schedules were really weak.

Cripes, Cal Poly had more quality wins than those three combined.

 

[luckyintheorder]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

Got it, and I did dig deeper looking at the stats of each game between MVFC and Big Sky. We not only went 8-1, but scores and stats compared very favorably almost every game. I won't repeat those stats, but I've covered much of that earlier.

Just trying to understand Big Sky. So while EWU played no MVFC teams and ISU played no Big Sky teams, we both won our respective conferences .. which means the inter-conference games/scores are all we got and they are only one game removed from each of us.

And your conference basically matched Eastern's record against the Big Sky. SDSU with a healthy Sumner kicked the crap out of a 2-10 SUU early in the season before the QB change, a Cal Poly who just had 5 players (2 key ones) kicked off the team in August, and a depleted MSU in the playoffs by one score. 5-7 MSU dominated 5-7 UND, meh. NDSU beat Montana and a 2-10 Weber (not all that convincingly). USD kept it respectable against Montana and beat NAU.

Also keep in mind that only 2 of those 9 games were played at Big Sky teams with winning records.

Considering the matchups, time of they season they were played, injuries, and where they were played, the only results that really surprise much are the margins of victory in the Missouri State - UND and Poly-SDSU games, and USD over NAU.

Now, going back to Massey, one of its flaws really shows up in ranking YSU 12, WIU 14, and SIU 16. Collectively they were .500 with only one win against a playoff team (YSU over a Sumner-less SDSU) and their combined OOC schedules were really weak.

Cripes, Cal Poly had more quality wins than those three combined.

In summation, this stuff adds up to.... nothing. Thanks for tracking that down kalm. Nice to separate the wheat from the chaff.

 

[kalm]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

Got it, and I did dig deeper looking at the stats of each game between MVFC and Big Sky. We not only went 8-1, but scores and stats compared very favorably almost every game. I won't repeat those stats, but I've covered much of that earlier.

Just trying to understand Big Sky. So while EWU played no MVFC teams and ISU played no Big Sky teams, we both won our respective conferences .. which means the inter-conference games/scores are all we got and they are only one game removed from each of us.

And your conference basically matched Eastern's record against the Big Sky. SDSU with a healthy Sumner kicked the crap out of a 2-10 SUU early in the season before the QB change, a Cal Poly who just had 5 players (2 key ones) kicked off the team in August, and a depleted MSU in the playoffs by one score. 5-7 MSU dominated 5-7 UND, meh. NDSU beat Montana and a 2-10 Weber (not all that convincingly). USD kept it respectable against Montana and beat NAU.

Also keep in mind that only 2 of those 9 games were played at Big Sky teams with winning records.

Considering the matchups, time of they season they were played, injuries, and where they were played, the only results that really surprise much are the margins of victory in the Missouri State - UND and Poly-SDSU games, and USD over NAU.

Now, going back to Massey, one of its flaws really shows up in ranking YSU 12, WIU 14, and SIU 16. Collectively they were .500 with only one win against a playoff team (YSU over a Sumner-less SDSU) and their combined OOC schedules were really weak.

Cripes, Cal Poly had more quality wins than those three combined.

In summation, this stuff adds up too.... nothing. Thanks for tracking that down kalm. Nice to separate the wheat from the chaff.

:thumb:

 

[EWURanger]

Massey is a bit of a joke when it comes to FCS teams...

 

[stlredbird]

Yep, another post from a Redbird fan. This must be getting tiresome, but I'll try to be entertaining.

First, the props. The Eagles have achieved success on that hideous red turf that the 'birds aspire to. ISUr has traditionally been a basketball school (though you would be hard pressed for evidence of that the past 15 yrs or so). Recently, resources have been going into football. So we're coming into your house again and hope to achieve a better result this time. In any case, EWU is among the FCS elite, and we recognize that. Our intention is to join you there.

Second, my biggest concern... You guys are gonna keep this just between us, right? I'm trusting you. You guys take care of the football. When we've struggled, we've had some problems in that area.

Finally, I'm looking forward to this game more so than any since our semi-final game against Georgia Southern in 1999. I live in St. Louis, and saw the Greatest Show on Turf. This is gonna be alot like that...

Finally - I mean it this time... I work for that little aerospace operation outta Seattle. Any colleagues on the forum?

 

[Redbird 4th & short]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

Got it, and I did dig deeper looking at the stats of each game between MVFC and Big Sky. We not only went 8-1, but scores and stats compared very favorably almost every game. I won't repeat those stats, but I've covered much of that earlier.

Just trying to understand Big Sky. So while EWU played no MVFC teams and ISU played no Big Sky teams, we both won our respective conferences .. which means the inter-conference games/scores are all we got and they are only one game removed from each of us.

And your conference basically matched Eastern's record against the Big Sky. SDSU with a healthy Sumner kicked the crap out of a 2-10 SUU early in the season before the QB change, a Cal Poly who just had 5 players (2 key ones) kicked off the team in August, and a depleted MSU in the playoffs by one score. 5-7 MSU dominated 5-7 UND, meh. NDSU beat Montana and a 2-10 Weber (not all that convincingly). USD kept it respectable against Montana and beat NAU.

Also keep in mind that only 2 of those 9 games were played at Big Sky teams with winning records.

Considering the matchups, time of they season they were played, injuries, and where they were played, the only results that really surprise much are the margins of victory in the Missouri State - UND and Poly-SDSU games, and USD over NAU.

Now, going back to Massey, one of its flaws really shows up in ranking YSU 12, WIU 14, and SIU 16. Collectively they were .500 with only one win against a playoff team (YSU over a Sumner-less SDSU) and their combined OOC schedules were really weak.

Cripes, Cal Poly had more quality wins than those three combined.

In summation, this stuff adds up too.... nothing. Thanks for tracking that down kalm. Nice to separate the wheat from the chaff.

:thumb:

lot of holes in that post, but I'm not going to re-post information already provided.

Forget Massey and Sagarin .. just look at the average of all 40 polls/systems that rank the FCS. Are they all wrong ?

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[kalm]

I posted this on our fan board in response to "Clawman", who said EWU can run and pass:

I don't doubt with EWU's pass attack, that it could open up their run game. But here is what I struggle with. There are 121 FCS teams. Big Sky has 13 teams. 10 of them are ranked in bottom 40 on Defense in Total Yards per Game

How would you answer to question of whether people play defense in Big Sky. Your 5 best defensive teams are all teams we beat easily:

36. North Dakota … 354 yards/game; Missouri St (1-7) beat them by 36 and got 384 total yards
40. Montana .. 359 yards/game; NDSU beat them by 12, but ran all over them and settled for FGs, got 447 yards; South Dakota (0-8) played them tough, even in total yards
67. No AZ .. 390 yards/game; South Dakota (0-8) beat them by 7 and got 389 total yards
81. Cal Poly .. 414 yards/game; SDSU beat them by 26, and got 502 total yards
85. No. CO .. 419 total yards/game; UNI destroyed them completely 46-7, and got 473 total yards

Here are the other 8 teams:

93. EWU .. 434 yards/game and 6.05 yards/play
98. Port St
100. Weber St
107. Sac St ..
110. Idaho St .. 1st in country in pass yards and 11th from bottom in defense; still finished 2nd in Big Sky, and didn't make playoffs
113. Cal Davis .. 482 yards/game
114. Mont St .. finished 4th in conference
120. So. UT .. 525 yards/game

I get that Big Sky focuses on offense and passing, and some leagues get like that as they try to compete .. but this is hard to understand.

Since the Idaho State game we have averaged 22 ppg on defense. Our stats were skewed a bit by facing the UW, two top ten FCS offenses in Idaho State and Montana State, and a top 24 offense in SHSU.

5 of the top 12 scoring offenses and total offenses are from the BSC as are 2 of the top 8 rushing offenses, 4 of the top 10 passing offenses and 5 out of the top 20 passing offenses. And these are against some very good OOC schedules.

SUU for example was still starting Aaron Cantu at QB when they played SELU and SDSU. They also faced Nevada and Colorado State OOC. They had a new OC in Gary Crowton (former BYU head coach) and were learning a new system. Once they switched to Ammon Olsen at QB and became more familiar with the offense, they went off and finished the season the #5 rated passing offense in the country.

There are 5 BSC passing offenses alone better than any you have faced this season.

Not denying the Valley plays more D but you need to drill deeper than total D rankings to get the whole story.

Got it, and I did dig deeper looking at the stats of each game between MVFC and Big Sky. We not only went 8-1, but scores and stats compared very favorably almost every game. I won't repeat those stats, but I've covered much of that earlier.

Just trying to understand Big Sky. So while EWU played no MVFC teams and ISU played no Big Sky teams, we both won our respective conferences .. which means the inter-conference games/scores are all we got and they are only one game removed from each of us.

And your conference basically matched Eastern's record against the Big Sky. SDSU with a healthy Sumner kicked the crap out of a 2-10 SUU early in the season before the QB change, a Cal Poly who just had 5 players (2 key ones) kicked off the team in August, and a depleted MSU in the playoffs by one score. 5-7 MSU dominated 5-7 UND, meh. NDSU beat Montana and a 2-10 Weber (not all that convincingly). USD kept it respectable against Montana and beat NAU.

Also keep in mind that only 2 of those 9 games were played at Big Sky teams with winning records.

Considering the matchups, time of they season they were played, injuries, and where they were played, the only results that really surprise much are the margins of victory in the Missouri State - UND and Poly-SDSU games, and USD over NAU.

Now, going back to Massey, one of its flaws really shows up in ranking YSU 12, WIU 14, and SIU 16. Collectively they were .500 with only one win against a playoff team (YSU over a Sumner-less SDSU) and their combined OOC schedules were really weak.

Cripes, Cal Poly had more quality wins than those three combined.

In summation, this stuff adds up too.... nothing. Thanks for tracking that down kalm. Nice to separate the wheat from the chaff.

:thumb:

lot of holes in that post, but I'm not going to re-post information already provided.

Forget Massey and Sagarin .. just look at the average of all 40 polls/systems that rank the FCS. Are they all wrong ?

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Feel free to poke them... :thumb:

If you've spent enough time around FCS then you've learned to take both human and computer polls with a grain of salt. All of them...

 

[LDopaPDX]

I don't care about polls, I just know Illinois State looks really good. They are the best team we've played this year outside of UW. We'll need to be at our best to win. The thing that scares me is that they can run the zone read very well, and that has been our Achilles heel for some time.

I think we can score points against just about anyone. Our success will likely hinge on our defense being able to get off the field.

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I don't care about polls, I just know Illinois State looks really good. They are the best team we've played this year outside of UW. We'll need to be at our best to win. The thing that scares me is that they can run the zone read very well, and that has been our Achilles heel for some time.

I think we can score points against just about anyone. Our success will likely hinge on our defense being able to get off the field.

They're gonna get their yard and points for sure, but they're also turnover prone. With the way our playmakers on D have been getting after it lately, I like our chances to get a couple extra opportunities for Vernon and company, and win by 1-2 scores. Should be an entertaining, high-scoring affair.

 

[luckyintheorder]

I don't care about polls, I just know Illinois State looks really good. They are the best team we've played this year outside of UW. We'll need to be at our best to win. The thing that scares me is that they can run the zone read very well, and that has been our Achilles heel for some time.

I think we can score points against just about anyone. Our success will likely hinge on our defense being able to get off the field.

They're gonna get their yard and points for sure, but they're also turnover prone. With the way our playmakers on D have been getting after it lately, I like our chances to get a couple extra opportunities for Vernon and company, and win by 1-2 scores. Should be an entertaining, high-scoring affair.

Yep. Looking for 3 TO's. Their QB slung it around pretty well last week, but it was the second time he'd seen UNI. Am sure they will come in with a plan to take advantage of our D's proclivity to run themselves out of position and get set late as the ball is snapped. We can stop the run a couple of times, score on offense and put some pressure on their passing game and it should unravel enough to make TO's happen. Eags will surprise Redbirds with physical and fast play.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Cripes, Cal Poly had more quality wins than those three combined.

In summation, this stuff adds up too.... nothing. Thanks for tracking that down kalm. Nice to separate the wheat from the chaff.

:thumb:

lot of holes in that post, but I'm not going to re-post information already provided.

Forget Massey and Sagarin .. just look at the average of all 40 polls/systems that rank the FCS. Are they all wrong ?

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Feel free to poke them... :thumb:

If you've spent enough time around FCS then you've learned to take both human and computer polls with a grain of salt. All of them...

Neat chart. Is it taking the field 4th and Short? (couldn't resist) :lol:

Anyone in the top ten can beat anyone else in the top ten. Cannot wait to watch the game this evening or see our Eagles victorious tomorrow! Go Eags!

 

[Redbird 4th & short]

Agree with lucky on this upcoming game.

But we all rely on our own "data" and form our own "opinions" from that data. Whether that data is from a bunch of objective 3rd party we sites who do exactly this for a living, and have tweaked ad refined it many times over the years to improve it based on past results Or a fan who just says, we're better .. we all rely on "data" to form our opinions.

But the game is certainly played on the field. My data (with credit to all of my data sources) says we should win the game on the field, but it willl likely be a barn burner with scored well into 40's depending on run/pass balance.

My data (again credit to my data sources) also says the MVFC is much stronger than the Big Sky this year .. the record, scores, and stats also say same thing .. even if as EWU fans, you say, "is not !!"