Is Portland State in at 8-3?

[JoinTheEAA]

Will Portland State make the post season if they win at Northern Colorado and beat Weber State at home? See the link below for an update on the playoff picture. The quote below from the linked story says they are out. They are unranked but that should change when the next poll comes out. Losses to Montana and Montana State in league play and a loss to TCU but some good road wins make the quote below even more interesting. As we saw in Cheney, this is a good football team.

"Unlike past seasons when the Big Sky received three bids, this year only two teams will be making plans for the postseason. Montana State (9-1) and Montana (8-2) both have byes this week and will play for the conference's automatic bid on Nov. 19."

http://64.246.64.33/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4448448" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[EWURanger]

No, and I don't know why there has been all this chatter about them getting in, especially from their coach who should know better. Even if they win their last two games, they can't get to 7 Division I wins. Their best bet to make the playoffs was to beat either UM or MSU, and they came close but couldn't pull either of those wins out.

The playoff committe made it pretty clear last year when they left a 7-4 Montana team out that had only 6 Division I wins. PSU's AD did them no favors by scheduling not one, but two NAIA schools. An FBS and two NAIA schools on the schedule is not a good recipe for making the playoffs. They are probably a playoff caliber team, but through no fault of their own, they will be left out. :twocents:

 

[kalm]

No, and I don't know why there has been all this chatter about them getting in, especially from their coach who should know better. Even if they win their last two games, they can't get to 7 Division I wins. Their best bet to make the playoffs was to beat either UM or MSU, and they came close but couldn't pull either of those wins out.

The playoff committe made it pretty clear last year when they left a 7-4 Montana team out that had only 6 Division I wins. PSU's AD did them no favors by scheduling not one, but two NAIA schools. An FBS and two NAIA schools on the schedule is not a good recipe for making the playoffs. They are probably a playoff caliber team, but through no fault of their own, they will be left out. :twocents:

This. I would see the committee granting an at-large to an OVC, Southland, or even weaker conference ahead of PSU. Not that it's fair.

 

[eaglesfootball]

Is Portland State in at 8-3?

nope.

 

[wineguy]

Will the CAA get the same consideration on wins, or will there be east-coast bias. The CAA is a mess and yet they wtill get a number of undeserving teams , high ratings.

 

[EWURanger]

Will the CAA get the same consideration on wins, or will there be east-coast bias. The CAA is a mess and yet they wtill get a number of undeserving teams , high ratings.

They'll hold the CAA, Socon, MVFC teams all to the same standard, although in some cases it is easier for those East Coast schools to get there. They get the benefit of scheduling OOC games with teams from very weak FCS conferences from the NEC, Patriot, etc. Yet those wins will still count towards playoff eligibility..........wish we had the same benefit, but you're not going to get a Lehigh or Albany to come out west. So often times, we get stuck with the Division II or extra FBS team to schedule for additional OOC games. The Division II games, of course, are non-counters for the playoffs.

Although now, I am kind of wishing we had played a Division II at home during week 2 to iron some things out before playing UM and MSU instead of the trip to South Dakota. Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

 

[marceagfan5]

I just don't see them getting in. 7 Div 1 wins is somewhat of an unwritten rule and even 7 doesn't guarantee you will get in. The committee will see that their star RB is out for the season and that they played 2 drop down games. They will also look at who they beat? Did they beat a playoff team or contender, their biggest win right now is against us. I don't think they will get in, if the committee will leave a team like the Griz out last year , I don't see them letting in PSU this year.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I guarantee they'll be in. Hands down, not eve ngoing to be a question. The ONLY sceario that might change this is if a couple of highly ranked teams lose their last two and have better 8-3 resumes.

Remember, the 7 D-I wins is part of the selective criteria, but it is not gospel. With the CAA down this year and not going to get more than 3--- maybe even 2 at this point--- in, the Big Sky getting 3 is extremely likely.

They might have problems if an 8-3 team with more than 7 wins came from the Great West, but that is no longer mathematically possible... South Dakota, Cal Poly and / or North Dakota couldn't get to 7 D-I wins either and the committee is not going to take only two teams from the West. The committee is not going to take 5 MVC teams, which is the only other conceivable way they lose out.

 

[LDopaPDX]

No, and I don't know why there has been all this chatter about them getting in, especially from their coach who should know better. Even if they win their last two games, they can't get to 7 Division I wins. Their best bet to make the playoffs was to beat either UM or MSU, and they came close but couldn't pull either of those wins out.

The playoff committe made it pretty clear last year when they left a 7-4 Montana team out that had only 6 Division I wins. PSU's AD did them no favors by scheduling not one, but two NAIA schools. An FBS and two NAIA schools on the schedule is not a good recipe for making the playoffs. They are probably a playoff caliber team, but through no fault of their own, they will be left out. :twocents:

And this misses one major issue... Montana was 7-4 last year, not 8-3. And 7-4 included 4 FCS losses, not 3. Remember, losses are more important than wins. Look at every poll and you see the unbeaten teams much closer to the top regardless of level of competition and multi-loss teams get pushed to mid-pack even if they have "good" losses.

 

[marceagfan5]

Several Reasons I don't think PSU even gets a sniff...

The NCAA made their "guidelines" for a reason...they discourage playing drop downs games for this reason.

The big sky is not a really strong conference this year, or at least as strong as everyone thought it would be to start the year.

PSU is a logistic nightmare for travel in the first round.

There will be more than enough at large teams in decent conferences with 7 or 8 Div 1 wins, look at the conferences.

The big sky nevers gets enough respect. Last year, we finish ranked first in the country and receive the #5 seed in the playoffs. The Griz were the national runners up in 2008 and 2009 and finished 7-4 last year with only 6 FCS wins and didn't get in.

For the sake of the big sky, I hope PSU makes it, but I don't think they will even be in the discussion.

 

[kalm]

I guarantee they'll be in. Hands down, not eve ngoing to be a question. The ONLY sceario that might change this is if a couple of highly ranked teams lose their last two and have better 8-3 resumes.

Remember, the 7 D-I wins is part of the selective criteria, but it is not gospel. With the CAA down this year and not going to get more than 3--- maybe even 2 at this point--- in, the Big Sky getting 3 is extremely likely.

They might have problems if an 8-3 team with more than 7 wins came from the Great West, but that is no longer mathematically possible... South Dakota, Cal Poly and / or North Dakota couldn't get to 7 D-I wins either and the committee is not going to take only two teams from the West. The committee is not going to take 5 MVC teams, which is the only other conceivable way they lose out.

If ever there was a year it would be this one but I still don't see it happening. The CAA may not have a clear cut front runner and some new faces at the top but it is still...well it's still the CAA. Towson, Maine, and New Hampshire, are at 7-2 and and ODU is at 8-3. They are all locks. JMU is 5-4 and favored in their final two against Maine and Rhode Island so they would get in ahead of PSU. And if it came down to it, even a 7-4 Delaware team with a DII win would still get the nod ahead of PSU especially considering conference rankings and a win against a top ten Towson. The SoCon is also almost a lock to get 4 in with the top teams having already played each other. The MVFC is solid with three and possibly could get a 4th if 5-4 Indiana State beats weak MSU and SIU teams. So PSU would be sharing the bubble for the last spot with JMU, Indiana St., Delaware, and Cal Poly all of whom have better schedules.

And that's leaving out the possibility of a mid major conference #2 getting the nod. I haven't looked to see if there are any worthy teams this year, but I think the committee would choose this route as they can stick to tradition and would love to see more competitiveness out of the lower conferences.

 

[kalm]

Central Arkansas, Liberty, Stony Brook, and Georgetown are 4 additional teams that I could see getting a nod over PSU as well.

 

[EWURanger]

@ Dopa - PSU won't be in unless there aren't enough teams that finish the season with 7 Division I wins. In fact, the only reason the NCAA includes the verbage "7 Division I wins MAY be used as criteria" is in the rare event that there aren't enough teams that finish at 7 - in which case they'd have no other option than to start looking at 6 win teams. Most likely isn't going to happen, as there are plenty of teams back East that will fit their criteria.

Assuming PSU wins out, they will be 6-3 in the eyes of the committee, not 8-3. Just like last year when we were 8-2 in the eyes of the committee, even though we were actually 9-2 overall at the end of the season, which included a win over DII CWU.

@ Marc - You may be right about the Big Sky not getting enough respect, however, I don't think that fits this scenario. The playoff committee has taken 3 Big Sky teams on several occasions, the most recent of which was 2009 when Montana, Eastern, and Weber State went. Note, all three had at least 7 Division I wins.

 

[marceagfan5]

Central Arkansas, Liberty, Stony Brook, and Georgetown are 4 additional teams that I could see getting a nod over PSU as well.

Liberty went 8-3 last year with an FBS win and didn't make it in, if anyone deserves to get in, they do.

 

[marceagfan5]

@ Marc - You may be right about the Big Sky not getting enough respect, however, I don't think that fits this scenario. The playoff committee has taken 3 Big Sky teams on several occasions, the most recent of which was 2009 when Montana, Eastern, and Weber State went. Note, all three had at least 7 Division I wins.

Agreed Ranger, I guess I was just trying to say if the committee is going to take a 6 win team, I just don't see them taking a big sky team, not enough respect from the east coast, even though the big sky has had a team in the nat. champ game the last 3 years.

 

[EWURanger]

Central Arkansas, Liberty, Stony Brook, and Georgetown are 4 additional teams that I could see getting a nod over PSU as well.

Scratch Georgetown off of that list unless they win the auto-bid. If history is any indication, there will not be two teams in from the Patriot League. The PL's past performance in the playoffs just doesn't justify them getting two in. Also, I wouldn't count Stony Brook getting in, either. They won't win the Big South auto-bid and that's another conference that routinely gets snubbed due to weak strength of schedule and past playoff performances (see 8-3 Liberty 2010). Liberty will win the Big South auto-bid and go to the playoffs, and Stony Brook most likely gets left out.

Central Arkansas is in a tough position. They need to beat transitional Texas State (WAC in 2012) to have a shot, as again, one of their wins was against a Division II team. If they do win out, they will definitely be in as the second team from the Southland Conference, as their only losses will have been to Sam Houston and FBS teams La Tech and Arkansas State.

Unfortunately, the Big Sky is definitely the weakest of the "Big Four" (CAA, Socon, Big Sky, Missouri Valley) FCS Conferences this year. Just like in 2010 with Eastern and MSU, the Big Sky is too top-heavy this season with MSU and UM. We can yell East-Coast bias all we want, but this year the Big Sky does not have a leg to stand on in that regard. UM and MSU are clearly in, but PSU scheduled themselves out of the playoffs and Eastern, Weber State, Sac State all had disappointing seasons after starting off with a lot of potential. I can guarantee everyone that if we had found a way to win our three remaining games, we would have been the third team in from the Big Sky. That didn't happen, so the Big Sky is now going to be relegated to the likes of the Southland with only two teams getting in. Of course, if the Big Sky gets a team in the NC game again, none of that will matter.

As far as how many teams get in, this is what the Sports Network gurus see happening, and I tend to agree.

Big Sky: Montana, Montana State (Portland State will get snubbed even if they win out at 8-3)
Big South: Liberty (Stony Brook will get snubbed, weak conference)
CAA: Towson, Maine, Old Dominion, New Hampshire
MEAC: Norfolk State
NEC: Albany or Duquesne (The other gets snubbed, weak conference)
MVC: North Dakota State, Northern Iowa, Illinois State
OVC: Eastern Kentucky (Jacksonville State has a shot as a second from the OVC if they win out. Won't happen, and even if they do they could still get snubbed)
Patriot: Lehigh (Georgetown will get snubbed, weak conference)
SoCon: Wofford, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Furman
Southland: Sam Houston State, Central Arkansas (Assuming Central Arkansas wins out)

The only way PSU has any shot whatsoever at making the field of 20 is if SEVERAL of those bubble teams lose.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Central Ark is in if, and only if, they win out. Liberty and Stony Brook each have 3 losses and still play each other... plus are coming out of the BIG SOUTH conference; no way two make it from there. Georgetown won't get in, period.

The worst case for Portland State is the 3 and 4 loss MVC teams (Youngstown, Indy State, Illinois State) all continue winning. The committee will need to look for Western teams, and they may consider teams from that conference Western *enough*. If Portland State was 7-4 with 6 D1 wins, it would be almost impossible for them to be in... but they would be 8-3, and that is different. Even the ridiculous East Coast voters know beating Campbell might count as a D1 win, but it's no more impressive than beating Southern Oregon.

 

[EWURanger]

If Portland State was 7-4 with 6 D1 wins, it would be almost impossible for them to be in... but they would be 8-3, and that is different.

Meh, agree to disagree. The committee won't see it that way. They will look at PSU as being 6-3, not 8-3. :nod:

And anyway, that argument might have some validity if we are talking about a bubble team that had a win over a Division II that had some clout........perhaps a Central Washington or Humboldt State type team. But unfortunately for PSU, they have wins over a Division III (non-scholarship) and an NAIA (non-scholarship)........absolutely no way the selection committee overlooks those facts.

Nigel Burton needs to put the crack pipe down if he thinks they're getting in with that resume.

I saw PSU's schedule before the season started and asked PSU fans what was up with it......I understand that one of those drop-down games was a filler after someone backed out of a game - but I will offer this: Eastern was basically in the same position in that we needed a 5th home game. Chaves decided to go on the road against an FCS opponent. It didn't work out, but at least had we won that game it would have counted towards playoff eligibility.

I understand that they wanted another home game in their shiny new stadium - but hypothetically if PSU had scheduled a Division I game, either FCS or FBS, instead of one of those drop-down games, and then lost that game, would we even be having this conversation right now? Assuming both PSU and EWU win out, they will both have the same number of Division I wins - six. So, as the defending National Champion, do we now deserve to be part of this conversation? No, and this is the reason that PSU gets left out.

It's not that I dislike PSU or something, or think that they aren't a playoff caliber team. I think they probably are one of the top 20 teams in the country. But the bottom line is that schools shouldn't be rewarded for playing a weak OOC schedule. And in fact, I will be pissed off if they are somehow selected, because according to the AD, the very reason we scheduled an all Division I slate this season is because drop-down games are non-counters!! Who's to say we couldn't have done the same thing by beating up on Western Oregon or whoever? If this is the case, then let's just schedule the one BCS team game every year and then two additional home games against CWU and Humboldt State.

If PSU's AD is serious about getting them into playoff consideration, he'll do a better job of scheduling next year. PSU has only played two, count 'em 2, non-Big Sky FCS OOC games in the past several years. See a trend there?

 

[LDopaPDX]

I don't think anyone advocates 2 sub-D1 games, but I guarantee the committed is going to be friendlier to an 8-3 team with 7 D1 wins than a 7-4 team with 7 D1 wins. Had we played South Dakota last year and lost and finished 8-3 instead of 9-2, we go on the road for the first round and probably don't win the national championship. Of course, that's all in the past now...

What's troubling is that it will probably be harder for the Big Sky to play out of conference FCS teams now that the conference has essentially incorporated the Great West. The NCAA hasn't banned out-of-conference games against conference opponents, but they are teetering on that concept. They actively discourage it already. If Eastern hasn't started building bridges Eastward, it's high time to start doing it.

 

[EWURanger]

I don't think anyone advocates 2 sub-D1 games, but I guarantee the committee is going to be friendlier to an 8-3 team with 7 D1 wins than a 7-4 team with 7 D1 wins.

And therein lies the problem. Division I wins (and potential wins) underlined. PSU's playoff chances ended when they lost to Montana.

Sat, Sept 3 vs Southern Oregon W 52-0
Sat, Sept 17 vs Northern Arizona W 31-29
Sat, Sept 24 @ #20 TCU L 55-13
Sat, Oct 1 @ Idaho State W 42-35
Sat, Oct 8 vs Montana State L 38-36
Sat, Oct 15 @ Montana L 30-24
Sat, Oct 22 vs Willamette W 36-10
Sat, Oct 29 @ Eastern Washington W 43-26
Sat, Nov 5 vs Sacramento State W 29-20
Sat, Nov 12 @ Northern Colorado
Sat, Nov 19 vs Weber State