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Path to the Playoffs

Kadeezy

Kadeezy

Active member
With more than half the season over and done, I don't think it's unreasonable to start looking at what we must do to make the playoffs. Most FCS fans seem to think we don't have a shot; that's fine with me. We'll let our record speak for itself after years of lofty expectations falling flat.

-With six games done and five to go we only have one road game outside of Cali (EWU). The other road game is at UCD.

-Three of our next four games will be at home.

-We must go at least 3-2 to be considered for a FCS playoff spot

We need to beat inferior teams; that means victories against Weber and UC Dungpile. And, while nothing is a sure thing in the BSC, I just don't see us beating EWU. I don't think we'll lose to both CPU and MSU @ home. We have to win at least one of those to have a shot.

I think that we have a great chance at 7-4.

Kadeezy's Best Case

@NMSU - L
@CU - W
UNC - W
UND - L
@ISU - W
@SUU - W
WSU - W
@EWU - L
CPU - W
MSU - L
@UCD - W

7-4 (5-3 BSC)
 
Kadeezy said:
With more than half the season over and done, I don't think it's unreasonable to start looking at what we must do to make the playoffs. Most FCS fans seem to think we don't have a shot; that's fine with me. We'll let our record speak for itself after years of lofty expectations falling flat.

-With six games done and five to go we only have one road game outside of Cali (EWU). The other road game is at UCD.

-Three of our next four games will be at home.

-We must go at least 3-2 to be considered for a FCS playoff spot

We need to beat inferior teams; that means victories against Weber and UC Dungpile. And, while nothing is a sure thing in the BSC, I just don't see us beating EWU. I don't think we'll lose to both CPU and MSU @ home. We have to win at least one of those to have a shot.

I think that we have a great chance at 7-4.

Kadeezy's Best Case

@NMSU - L
@CU - W
UNC - W
UND - L
@ISU - W
@SUU - W
WSU - W
@EWU - L
CPU - W
MSU - L
@UCD - W

7-4 (5-3 BSC)
Click to expand...

Some of the "favorites" don't want to admit it but there is far more parity in the Sky this year than there has been. I think any team can beat any other team on a given day. Even UNC and Idaho State can be dangerous under the right circumstances. I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both pull a shocker before it's over. My first goal for the Hornets is to secure a winning record, whatever happens after that is a plus.
I think all of our remaining games are winnable. but we will lose if we don't bring our A game. I won't write off any of our remaining games.
 
Kadeezy said:
With more than half the season over and done, I don't think it's unreasonable to start looking at what we must do to make the playoffs. Most FCS fans seem to think we don't have a shot; that's fine with me. We'll let our record speak for itself after years of lofty expectations falling flat.

-With six games done and five to go we only have one road game outside of Cali (EWU). The other road game is at UCD.

-Three of our next four games will be at home.

-We must go at least 3-2 to be considered for a FCS playoff spot

We need to beat inferior teams; that means victories against Weber and UC Dungpile. And, while nothing is a sure thing in the BSC, I just don't see us beating EWU. I don't think we'll lose to both CPU and MSU @ home. We have to win at least one of those to have a shot.

I think that we have a great chance at 7-4.

Kadeezy's Best Case

@NMSU - L
@CU - W
UNC - W
UND - L
@ISU - W
@SUU - W
WSU - W
@EWU - L
CPU - W
MSU - L
@UCD - W

7-4 (5-3 BSC)
Click to expand...

Why not. Had it not been for a last second TD, Sac St would have won on the red rug. Last year's game went into overtime. I confident that the hornets can sting the eags in Cheney.
 
3898353-a-very-stressed-man-blocking-out-noise-with-his-ears.jpg
 
just a sac state fan said:
I thought we need to win 7 games before we talk about the playoffs. So we don't need to follow the rules.
Click to expand...
Discuss them at your own peril. I’ll engage in this discussion if and only if we take care of business against Weber State this weekend.
:hide:
 
Can we talk about this yet!? :lol:

If we play like last week, we've got no shot. But if the CU game team shows up, I like our chances to go at least 2-2 over the final four and receive serious playoff consideration...
 
The polls for this week are out and Eastern is ranked #1. If we pull the upset, that will really get the country (in FCS land that is) talking about us.
 
Ok now that the Hornets are in striking range of getting to the playoffs (there, I said it, I used the “p” word) we may as well take a brief look ahead. Pull up a chair because I’m only doing this once. For the record I equate this thread to talking to a pitcher during a no-no so I am reluctant to participate. However this is an exciting time to be a Hornet fan and this ride has been enjoyable (and vey stressful).

The path to the playoffs won’t be easy for the Hornets. Our defense has been solid for much of the season and has kept us in just about every game, the offense has had some instances where they got on a roll but has been pretty unimpressive as of late, and the special teams looks like it is finally finding its stride and is looking pretty solid.

20 teams get into the playoffs, 10 of which are auto-bids so that leaves 10 at-large berths up for grabs. (The playoffs expand to 24 teams in 2013, too many imo but that’s another topic.) Typically 7 D-1 wins has been enough to get into post season play but with 5 weeks of football left, there is no telling how things will shake out. With the expanded BSC (13 football members) things get even more complicated as not every team plays each other and as of now there are a lot of teams with the chance to get into the playoffs if they take care of business. For the sake of sanity there is no point in discussing those possibilities at this point so I’m going to keep with the theme of this thread and focus only on our schedule.

The Hornets sit at 5-2 (3-1 BSC) and need 2 more wins to get to 7 D-1 wins. This may or may not be enough but that is beyond anyone’s control at this point. The bottom line is the Hornets need to take care of business and it is a very tough task ahead.

Week 8 @ (#1) Eastern Washington
EWU (5-1, 4-0 BSC) has just moved into the #1 spot in some of the polls after their win at MSU. EWU has not been invincible this season but has managed to win (sounds familiar doesn’t it?). I think this team is vulnerable as it was the Eagle defense and special teams that got the job done in Bozeman. However good teams always find a way to win and this EWU team is definitely a good team. IMO EWU touts the best group of receivers in the FCS and they have found some balance in their offense as they have a running game that can keep a defense honest. Defensively they have had some injury issues at linebacker that may have an impact on them as they move forward.

I like our chances for this one. We have played EWU tough the past few years and amazingly all of our wins against EWU have always been in Cheney. They escaped against the Hornets with some last minute heroics in 2010 and the Hornets would have beaten the Eagles in Sac last year if there was a kicker on the roster. The key to a win here is how well the defense plays. EWU has a very mobile QB in (#16) Vernon Adams but he is a redshirt freshman and is still developing. The key on offense is to get the run game going. The Hornets have struggled to move the ball on the ground as of late and the Hornets cannot afford to fall behind a team as good as EWU.

Week 9 vs (#14) Cal Poly
Cal Poly (6-0, 4-0 BSC) is hands down the scariest team on the schedule. The Mustangs run the triple option to perfection and quite frankly I don’t see how the Hornets or any defense will be able to slow it down. And that is not the scary part. The scary part is QB (#3) Andre Broadous has shown that he can step back and throw the ball over top of the defense when need be. This CP offense is going to grind the ball on the ground and control the ball and the clock. It really is a thing of beauty to watch so long as it’s not your team getting run over by the Cal Poly Express. CP also has a great run defense to go along with their offense. If there is one hole on this CP team it is their pass defense. However this CP defense does not give up many points.

I don’t like our chances at all in this one. It’s going to be tough for the Hornet defense to gear up and prepare for the triple option in less than a week. The atmosphere for this game should be electric as I anticipate a large crowd in Hornet Stadium to see this one, but I just don’t see the Hornets coming out on the right end of this one.

Week 10 vs (#5) Montana State
Montana State (6-1, 3-1 BSC) was the favorite in the BSC until their loss at home to EWU. Much like EWU, MSU has not been overly impressive this season as they squeaked by a lot of their opponents. However much like EWU they have always found a way to win and this MSU team has some versatility. MSU has a good stable of running backs but their OL got off to a slow start. MSU has a top ranked passing offense behind the arm of (#9) DeNarius McGhee and the Bobcat defense is one of the best (if not the best) in the BSC.

The Hornets have played the Bobcats well the past few years. There was that crazy scoring game in Hornet Stadium 2 years ago in which the Hornets were edged out in overtime and then last season’s game was a close one for much of it as well. MSU will have the edge in this one as the Hornet offense will not have much success moving the ball if they keep playing like they have been. MSU has been mistake prone at times and rank near the bottom of the BSC in turnover margin.

Week 11 Bye

Week 12 @ the farm extension
The farm extension has been playing good defense this year but have been sporadic on offense. Much like the Hornets, it just seems to depend on which team shows up. The farm extension has no shot at the playoffs and were eliminated after their loss at home to MSU. They are just playing for pride and hoping to send HC Biggs out on a good note.

As in recent years, this game will be a close one and can go either way. However if the Hornets want to even be considered for the playoffs they need to win this one. With this game still a ways away, there is no telling how injuries will factor in. I’m not a fan of the late season bye for the Hornets but it might actually work out as they will have plenty of time to prepare for this one. There is no reason the Hornets shouldn’t bring their “A” game into this one. A win here is a must.

The Bottom Line
The Hornets control their own destiny and that is all anyone can ask for at this point. As previously stated the Hornets need 2 wins just for playoff consideration. If those 2 wins come in the next 3 weeks then I think the Hornets are in as wins over either EWU, CP, or MSU will be huge resume’ boosters. If the Hornets get 7 wins with one being against the farm extension, then the Hornets might need some help with other contenders losing. If by some stroke of luck the Hornets get 8 wins then they are no doubt in the playoffs. On the flip side the Hornets can easily lose out and not even come close to sniffing the post season. The BSC is a power conference but I have a hard time seeing the selection committee taking more than 4 BSC teams into the playoffs.

If the Hornets come out focused every week and take care of business, there is no telling what might happen. The coaches and players need to take this one week at a time; if any of them start looking ahead then things will unravel rather quickly.

On another note, aside from all the playoff talk the Hornets are still in contention for a BSC Championship. CP has the inside track for the BSC title but if the Hornets can knock them off and somehow run the table, the Hornets may get a share of the title. It gets complicated now that the BSC is in this expanded format but it is something to keep in mind nonetheless.

GO HORNETS!!!
 
I went through the conference title scenario last week. It's POSSIBLE, but we pretty much have to run the table unless CP, MSU, and EWU take a major NAU-style late-season crap. Not likely.

I agree with SD. Let's take this talk SLOWLY, one game at a time. I know that sounds cliche-ish, but for right now, it's the right thing to do....
 
Is it just me or does anyone else find it exciting that we still have the ability to talk about potential playoffs this late in the season?

It's a young team that has had some ups and downs this year (dealing witha tragedy in the Hornet Family, inconsitant play at times and having a new offense in a matter of 3 years) the actually can control their own destiny.

I mentioned it before and still feel that this is a very young team and may fall a bit short, but I am excited in the future and direction we are going... :twocents:
 
I agree that it's really exciting to be discussing the playoffs in week 9!! As challenging as it may be to qualify this year, the Hornets control their destiny - win out and they're in. Huge obstacles in the way, but it is realistic.

But I will say I'm not as excited as others when it comes to our chances for the playoffs in future years. This has nothing to do with the team or the coach - it's the decision of the AD to schedule two FBS games per year. This is just maddening to think we'll need to deal with the meat grinder that is the BSC but now they also have to face two FBS teams as well. How realistic is it to expect an 8-3 record under this scheduling strategy? I get the need to pay the bills and schedule one FBS team per year, but it's not realistic to expect an FCS team to beat an FBS EVERY year.

Give the kids, the coaches and the fans a reastic shot to reach the next level. Let's not write off the season before it starts!!
 
Excellent point OG67. As low odds of there are of winning out this team does have the ability to pull it off. Regardless of how it plays out it has been a fun ride. I hope this team can defy the odds.

OH has good points with scheduling as well. However if playing 2 FBS games is what keeps the lights on for the football program then we have no choice. I would like to have an FCS opponent instead of a FBS money game but it is what it is. I’d also rather have a winnable FBS game on the schedule instead of a meaningless D-2/NAIA game on the schedule. So long as one of the FBS opponents is always a winnable one (WAC, MWC) then I think I can tolerate it. Also if Wanless can land a regional opponent that Hornet fans can travel to (ASU and SJSU for 2013 are easy to get to for most Hornet fans) then even better.
 
OldGreen67 said:
Is it just me or does anyone else find it exciting that we still have the ability to talk about potential playoffs this late in the season?

It's a young team that has had some ups and downs this year (dealing witha tragedy in the Hornet Family, inconsitant play at times and having a new offense in a matter of 3 years) the actually can control their own destiny.

I mentioned it before and still feel that this is a very young team and may fall a bit short, but I am excited in the future and direction we are going... :twocents:
Click to expand...

With the upset over CU and all of our "winnable games" early on, it's been very nice to get the hopes up for a couple weeks! Even with the victories over OSU and CU in 2011/12, we're still looking for a signature FCS win. UM was nice last year, but I'm talking about a statement game.

Cal Poly comes in this week undefeated ranked #11, and top 10 ranked MSU follows right after. We need to make a statement and win one of those two games. Also, we need to take care of business against UCD, who isn't a pushover. No matter what, at the very least we need to finish 2-1 for consideration.

Here are the possible scenarios and my expected outcomes in order of most likely to least likely IMO :twocents: ...

1. Lose to CP, MSU, and beat UCD - Record of 6-5, no playoffs, but a winning record.

2. Beat CP, Lose to MSU, and Beat UCD - Record of 7-4, still no playoffs because the committee won't give us the credit we deserve for a CP victory and there are plenty of east coast teams at 7-4 they are in love with.

3. Lose to CP, Beat MSU and UCD - Record of 7-4, possibly ranked in the 15-20 range, PLAYOFFS BABY! PAC-12 win and win over Top 10 MSU, the committee will love us and have their own love fest with us possibly hosting a first round game on the west coast.

4. Lose to CP, MSU, and UCD - 5-6 finish and the fourth most likely scenario. It's not too difficult to see this happening. The team is going through a tough time right now and there's no shame in losses to top teams and a rivalry upset. I pray this doesn't happen, but this scenario is unacceptable and represents the threshhold for "failure" in my opinion.

5. Beat CP, MSU, and UCD - 8-3 finish, definitely hosting a playoff game and ranked top 10-15 in the country.

6. Beat CP, MSU, and lose to UCD - 7-4 finish and the least likely scenario. How would we womp (tribute to SH) on CP and MSU and lose to UCD. Though ironically, I think this scenario still gets us in the playoffs with two big FCS wins and the CU upset.
 
Kadeezy said:
With the upset over CU and all of our "winnable games" early on, it's been very nice to get the hopes up for a couple weeks! Even with the victories over OSU and CU in 2011/12, we're still looking for a signature FCS win. UM was nice last year, but I'm talking about a statement game.

Cal Poly comes in this week undefeated ranked #11, and top 10 ranked MSU follows right after. We need to make a statement and win one of those two games. Also, we need to take care of business against UCD, who isn't a pushover. No matter what, at the very least we need to finish 2-1 for consideration.

Here are the possible scenarios and my expected outcomes in order of most likely to least likely IMO :twocents: ...

1. Lose to CP, MSU, and beat UCD - Record of 6-5, no playoffs, but a winning record.

2. Beat CP, Lose to MSU, and Beat UCD - Record of 7-4, still no playoffs because the committee won't give us the credit we deserve for a CP victory and there are plenty of east coast teams at 7-4 they are in love with.

3. Lose to CP, Beat MSU and UCD - Record of 7-4, possibly ranked in the 15-20 range, PLAYOFFS BABY! PAC-12 win and win over Top 10 MSU, the committee will love us and have their own love fest with us possibly hosting a first round game on the west coast.

4. Lose to CP, MSU, and UCD - 5-6 finish and the fourth most likely scenario. It's not too difficult to see this happening. The team is going through a tough time right now and there's no shame in losses to top teams and a rivalry upset. I pray this doesn't happen, but this scenario is unacceptable and represents the threshhold for "failure" in my opinion.

5. Beat CP, MSU, and UCD - 8-3 finish, definitely hosting a playoff game and ranked top 10-15 in the country.

6. Beat CP, MSU, and lose to UCD - 7-4 finish and the least likely scenario. How would we womp (tribute to SH) on CP and MSU and lose to UCD. Though ironically, I think this scenario still gets us in the playoffs with two big FCS wins and the CU upset.
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:+1:
 
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