• Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts, upgrade to remove ads and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your BigSkyFans.com experience today!

Path to the Playoffs

OK. We've taken the first step. But I'm with K here in that it sure looks like we HAVE to beat MSU to get it. I'm also presuming we have to win out. I'm counting the likely 7-4 or better teams, and I get to 22 before I get to us, mostly East of the Mississippi teams. The committee will be hard pressed to grant the Sky 1/4 of the playoff bids, which they will likely have to do to get us in at 7-4, even with a B(C)$ win and a win over #11.

Am I too pessimistic here? I certainly hope so!
 
Kadeezy said:
OldGreen67 said:
Is it just me or does anyone else find it exciting that we still have the ability to talk about potential playoffs this late in the season?

It's a young team that has had some ups and downs this year (dealing witha tragedy in the Hornet Family, inconsitant play at times and having a new offense in a matter of 3 years) the actually can control their own destiny.

I mentioned it before and still feel that this is a very young team and may fall a bit short, but I am excited in the future and direction we are going... :twocents:
Click to expand...

With the upset over CU and all of our "winnable games" early on, it's been very nice to get the hopes up for a couple weeks! Even with the victories over OSU and CU in 2011/12, we're still looking for a signature FCS win. UM was nice last year, but I'm talking about a statement game.

Cal Poly comes in this week undefeated ranked #11, and top 10 ranked MSU follows right after. We need to make a statement and win one of those two games. Also, we need to take care of business against UCD, who isn't a pushover. No matter what, at the very least we need to finish 2-1 for consideration.

Here are the possible scenarios and my expected outcomes in order of most likely to least likely IMO :twocents: ...

1. Lose to CP, MSU, and beat UCD - Record of 6-5, no playoffs, but a winning record.

2. Beat CP, Lose to MSU, and Beat UCD - Record of 7-4, still no playoffs because the committee won't give us the credit we deserve for a CP victory and there are plenty of east coast teams at 7-4 they are in love with.

3. Lose to CP, Beat MSU and UCD - Record of 7-4, possibly ranked in the 15-20 range, PLAYOFFS BABY! PAC-12 win and win over Top 10 MSU, the committee will love us and have their own love fest with us possibly hosting a first round game on the west coast.

4. Lose to CP, MSU, and UCD - 5-6 finish and the fourth most likely scenario. It's not too difficult to see this happening. The team is going through a tough time right now and there's no shame in losses to top teams and a rivalry upset. I pray this doesn't happen, but this scenario is unacceptable and represents the threshhold for "failure" in my opinion.

5. Beat CP, MSU, and UCD - 8-3 finish, definitely hosting a playoff game and ranked top 10-15 in the country.

6. Beat CP, MSU, and lose to UCD - 7-4 finish and the least likely scenario. How would we womp (tribute to SH) on CP and MSU and lose to UCD. Though ironically, I think this scenario still gets us in the playoffs with two big FCS wins and the CU upset.
Click to expand...


We are now left with four possible ways to end the season. I've listed them below in order of probability that the scenario will actually occur.

1. Lose to MSU / Beat UCD (7-4, 5-3 BSC) - The most likely scenario in my opinion. MSU is going to be incredibly difficult to beat (not impossible). And coming off the Bye Week, I think we can take the Causeway back from UC Dungpile at their house. OUTCOME: NO PLAYOFFS, FRINGE TOP 25 TEAM...

Probability: 55%

2. Beat MSU / Beat UCD (8-3, 6-2 BSC) - If we score a big upset, then go on to roll UCD, I will be one happy Hornet. This possibility is not too far-fetched and is my second most likely to occur. The Hornets have momentum and if this were to play out there isn't a team in the country that would want to see SAC STATE game one of the playoffs. OUTCOME: PLAYOFFS, RANKED 15-20 RANGE...

Probability: 25%

3. Lose to MSU / Lose to UCD (6-5, 4-4 BSC) - An emotionally drained Hornet team finally shows signs of wear and fights valiantly, but somehow loses the last two games. OUTCOME: NO PLAYOFFS, MINIMAL LEVEL OF SUCCESS TO NOT CLASSIFY SEASON AS A "FAILURE"...

Probability: 15%

4. Beat MSU / Lose to UCD (7-4, 5-3 BSC) - The least likely to occur, is the most interesting scenario IMO. A victory over MSU would get us the respect we need from the committee. However, following up that victory by laying an egg at UCD could have hornet fans on edge waiting for the playoff selections on Sunday, Nov. 18th. OUTCOME: PLAYOFFS... BARELY... PAC12 WIN + CP WIN + MSU WIN + CLOSE LOSS ON THE ROAD = FRINGE CITY BABY.

Probability: 5%
 
Good assessments K. I agree with the likely outcomes as well. Here it is week 10 and we are talking about playoff possibilities. Regardless of what happens the next 3 weeks, it has been one hell of a ride. :nod:

3,000th post, what better way to spend it then on a playoff thread. :rockon:
 
My bracket thread at CS was based on the assumption we win out. I'm of the opinion that we HAVE to due to ECB. Heck, with ECB floating around, we stand a distinct chance of being left out even if we DO win out. We REALLY ought to be in the Top 25 RIGHT NOW with a B(C)$ win AND a defeat of an undefeated #11 team, but we don't have that kind of respect. I really think the UND loss and the lackadaisical UNC win have killed our season.

I hope to heck I'm wrong, though.
 
Super Hornet said:
My bracket thread at CS was based on the assumption we win out. I'm of the opinion that we HAVE to due to ECB. Heck, with ECB floating around, we stand a distinct chance of being left out even if we DO win out. We REALLY ought to be in the Top 25 RIGHT NOW with a B(C)$ win AND a defeat of an undefeated #11 team, but we don't have that kind of respect. I really think the UND loss and the lackadaisical UNC win have killed our season.

I hope to heck I'm wrong, though.
Click to expand...

Craig Haley pretty much said that he felt the Sky was weak, and only 4 teams will go. He outright said teams like Sacramento State will find themselves on the outside looking in. Sad, becuase I watched the ODU-Delaware game on NBC last weekend, and i was not impressed with either team, especially the one who had former Hornet David Born starting on O line(ODU).
 
This was posted on CS.com:

Autos locked (I think)
Bethune-Cookman 8-2
Eastern Illinois 7-3
Central Arkansas 8-2
Colgate 7-3

Autos (most likely)
Old Dominion 9-1
Eastern Washington 8-2
North Dakota State 9-1
Coastal Carolina 6-4
Wagner 7-3
Georgia Southern 8-2

Here's 13 teams for 10 more spots. Anyone who thinks a 7-4 team has a chance this year is smoking something...

Sam Houston State 8-2
Montana State 9-1
Wofford 8-2
Appalachian State 8-3
New Hampshire 8-2
Illinois State 8-2
Northern Arizona 8-2
Cal Poly 8-2
Richmond 7-3 (W&M)
Villanova 7-3 (Delaware)
South Dakota State 7-3 (South Dakota)
Indiana State 7-3 (YSU)
Lehigh 9-1
Click to expand...

There are ton of 8 and 7 win teams out there. Assuming we win this week, I think our best bet is hoping CP knocks off NAU and then some how we take their spot. Even then I still don't think we get in with 7 wins. It was only a couple years ago when a 6 D1 win Montana or CP were being considered for the playoffs due to the lack of options.
 
That's about how I see it, SD. For potential 7-4 teams, we have about the best shot of anyone. But it will take some doing to convince the committee that our 7-4 beats some 8-3 teams. Actually, though, if we get in, I don't think it will be because we beat out an 8-3 team. I truly think it will be because we beat out a 10-1 and/or a 9-2 that failed to get their autobid with a badly-timed in-conference loss paired with horribly weak schedule strength. I don't think the committee will buy that, but IF we get in, that's probably about how it will go. The 8-3s we would otherwise be competing with (UNH, JMU, etc.) are just too strong.
 
How many of those on the list have a D-2 win? I singled out NAU because if they lose to CP, they will only have 7 D1 wins. Maybe some others are in that category as well.
 
SDHornet said:
How many of those on the list have a D-2 win? I singled out NAU because if they lose to CP, they will only have 7 D1 wins. Maybe some others are in that category as well.
Click to expand...

Good point, SD.

Likely 8-3 teams with D-II or lower games

IN St shut out Quincy (D-II Great Lakes Valley) (3-8, 3-5) 44-0, balanced by a close Big Ten loss. Signature win is #1 NDSU (by only a FG). No bad losses. Last game at YSU. OUT with loss. May have problems with even with win. Probably OUT (6 D-I wins).

Butler blew out Franklin (D-III Heartland) (7-2, 7-0). PFL, no AQ, OUT.

Drake beat Grand View (NAIA Mid-States Football Assn.) (8-3, 5-2). PFL, no AQ, OUT.

San Diego beat W New Mexico (D-II RMAC) (4-6, 3-5). PFL, no AQ, OUT.

Jacksonville U beat Webber International (NAIA Independent (4-6). PFL, no AQ, OUT.

Wofford destroyed Lincoln (PA) (D-II CIAA) (1-9, 1-6). Last game at South Car. COULD have problems, but conference sched probably get them IN.

UCA destroyed Bacone College (NAIA Central States Football League) (6-3, 3-1). Bacone called UCA a non-counting "exhibition." UCA clinched SLC AQ.

SHSU beat transitioning Incarnate Word (D-II Lone Star) (2-8, 1-6). Last game at TX A&M. Probably IN.

AL A&M beat Tuskegee (D-II Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Conference) (9-1, 7-0) 7-6. Last game at Auburn. SWAC, so probably OUT.

AR-PB beat Langston (NAIA CSFL) (6-4, 3-0) by FG. Last game at Prairie View A&M. SWAC, so probably OUT.
 
In the past, a 9-team BSC has landed three teams in post season play, why not four with 13 competitive (mostly) team? The only way WE have a snowball's chance to get in IMO is if Cal Poly rolls NAU and we destroy UCD.

Assume CP wins big and so do we, let's compare the resumes...

NAU
-7 DI wins (one Mountain West win)
-Home losses to SUU and CP
-Thrashing at the hands of a mediocre Pac 12 team (Lost at ASU 63-6)
-Narrow home victory against UCD
-2 game losing streak to end year
-0 wins against currently ranked teams

SAC
-7 DI wins (one PAC-12 BCS win)
-Road victory at SUU and home win against #11 CP
-Road pasting of UCD
-Five wins, two losses in last seven games to #1 and #3 ranked teams by a COMBINED 6 points
-1 loss all year against unranked FCS school or non-FBS school
-Full DI schedule

To be fair the committee may look at both of options and say, no thanks. BUT, should CP and SAC win, you can bet that for the first time, the Hornets can honestly say they are worthy candidates for postseason play.
 
Good points K. Still a long shot we get a serious look. Regardless of what we think, it means nothing unless the Hornets can take care of business this week at the dungpile.
 
You make a very good argument, K. IMO, however, that very same resume (incidentally, you stated it MUCH better than I have) seems competitive even against teams back east with higher win totals, mainly in non-power conferences, but even including a couple in the MVC. Logic would dictate that we get in over THOSE guys (not "just" NAU), but you know how the committee operates: the MVC/CAA are the be-all and end-all of the FCS, and ANYONE in those conferences can take out the top ranked team in the Big Sky. In all likelihood, it will probably work out as you and SD have so ably stated, but I would at least HOPE that SOMEONE on the committee would see that we at least TRIED to play someone of decent caliber (within the scheduling limitations we have out here) and didn't try to rely on mediocre D-IIs as some back east who think they're the cat's meow did....
 
According to his tweet, Craig Haley thinks 3 or 4 teams from BSC will make post-season. Sac St can use some help this weekend. Hornets currently stand at 5th in BSC. NAU must lose (Let's root for the mustangs). I think Sac St has a better case over NAU in selection process. One of Jacks' W came over DII opponent.

Craig Haley ‏@CraigHaley
@BigSkyConf @FCS_Football @timmcd_TSN All for it. 3 or 4 teams for the Big Sky!
 
Super Hornet said:
Who the heck is Craig Haley?
Click to expand...

His intro on his tweeter profile.

Craig Haley
@CraigHaley The Sports Network Senior Editor/FCS Executive Director Craig Haley digs into the huddles across the Football Championship Subdivision.
New Jersey/Pennsylvania ·
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/indexpic.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
I don't know why everyone seems to put so much stock in Chris Haley and Sportsnetwork.com. Their preseason prediction had us finishing 12th in the BSC, they are clueless! Even with a win over the dungpilers I don't know if the playoffs are in the cards for us this year. It's hard to say if our chances would be improved by a Cal Poly victory at NAU . If Poly losses it would be their 3rd loss in the last 4 games with the only win coming against a non existent ISU. Hardly a good case for consideration over a team that has beaten them and although has another loss has finished strong.
 
IMO, we lost our chance we when lost to MSU. Plain and simple. I say, beat the Ags, and enjoy a great 7-4 season with a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball for next year's push.
 
SactoHornetAlum said:
IMO, we lost our chance we when lost to MSU. Plain and simple. I say, beat the Ags, and enjoy a great 7-4 season with a lot of talent returning on both sides of the ball for next year's push.
Click to expand...


I'm with you on that, great opportunity, great effort just too many mistakes vs MSU. Young and unexperienced team this year, grew and matured throughout the season. I've enjoyed watching them progress, let's beat the dungpilers and hope for the best. I look forward to next season, I'm sure that we have earned more respect in the early season polls than we were shown this year!
 
Green Laser said:
I don't know why everyone seems to put so much stock in Chris Haley and Sportsnetwork.com. Their preseason prediction had us finishing 12th in the BSC, they are clueless! Even with a win over the dungpilers I don't know if the playoffs are in the cards for us this year. It's hard to say if our chances would be improved by a Cal Poly victory at NAU . If Poly losses it would be their 3rd loss in the last 4 games with the only win coming against a non existent ISU. Hardly a good case for consideration over a team that has beaten them and although has another loss has finished strong.
Click to expand...


Not much stock is being put into Haley's comment. My posting is for the scenario where four BSC teams are invited to the playoffs. IF NAU loses, that keeps them in fourth place. If the committe doesn't automatically take the top four in the conf, Sac St has a better resumé. In other words, I shared the tweet to give some optimism. Geesh, you grinch.

Not only Haley and TSN.com had the hornets in last place in BSC standing. Every pre-seson forecast had the hornets below 9th place in the standings.
 
L.A.HornetsFan said:
Green Laser said:
I don't know why everyone seems to put so much stock in Chris Haley and Sportsnetwork.com. Their preseason prediction had us finishing 12th in the BSC, they are clueless! Even with a win over the dungpilers I don't know if the playoffs are in the cards for us this year. It's hard to say if our chances would be improved by a Cal Poly victory at NAU . If Poly losses it would be their 3rd loss in the last 4 games with the only win coming against a non existent ISU. Hardly a good case for consideration over a team that has beaten them and although has another loss has finished strong.
Click to expand...


Not much stock is being put into Haley's comment. My posting is for the scenario where four BSC teams are invited to the playoffs. IF NAU loses, that keeps them in fourth place. If the committe doesn't automatically take the top four in the conf, Sac St has a better resumé. In other words, I shared the tweet to give some optimism. Geesh, you grinch.

Not only Haley and TSN.com had the hornets in last place in BSC standing. Every pre-seson forecast had the hornets below 9th place in the standings.
Click to expand...

I wasn't talking about you personally "taking stock" in his opinion. I was just expressing that many posters on these boards put way too much stock in predictions, polls etc. If as you said every preseason forecast had us below 9th place in the standings it shows that they haven't done their homework. We knew that we graduated a lot of talent last year and that this year's team would be young and a question mark. I doubt that many familiar with the BSC or Sac State would seriously think we would finish below 9th. The point is that we all are just fans, we all have our opinions right or wrong, we are not experts, we have day jobs. If you run a national poll, or set yourself up as a FCS "expert" that is your day job and you need to do your homework if you expect to have any creditability.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Back
Top