Phil Steele's FCS Predictions

[wineguy]

There is no better College Football prognosticator than Phil Steele. Get his magazines at the newstands or look him up online. He is also the only that ranks the FCS in it's entirety. The FCS edition is only available in the SEC/ACC/Big East Regional Magazine. I just recieved my copy and I want to share the results. Because of limited space I am going to concentrate on the Big Sky Conference.

This Years Top 40:
#4 - Montana
#9 - Northern Arizona
#16 - Weber State
#20 - Montana State
#27 - Eastern Washington

2010 Preseason AA Teams (inc. all FCS Teams)
1st Team Offense:
QB - Michael Herrick - Northern Arizona
RB - Taiwan Jones - Eastern Washington
1st Team Defense:
LB - J.C. Sherritt - Eastern Washington
CB - Trumaine Johnson - Montana
2nd Team Offense:
C - Alex Verlanic - Montana
2nd Team Defense:
DL - Renard Williams - Eastern Washington
3rd Team Offense:
OL - Mike Person - Montana State
3rd Team Defense:
DL - Dan Ogden - Montana State

I'll have more interesting tidbits later, like avg. attendence. Right now let's get some discussion started on the results.

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

EWU at 27 and Weber at 16!!!? WTF is he on? He must place a lot of weight on returning QBs. Weber has virtually no one returning in the backfield to help out Higgins, and the more pressure you put on Higgins, the more INTs he throws.

INTs/Sacks
2007: 9/7
2008: 13/20
2009: 20/18

Trevyn Smith graduated, and Bo Bolen is on a mission. Tim Toone is gone. Nakamura their big TE is gone. I don't see how he can have them ranked so high and EWU so low.

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Oh, and thanks for posting that wineguy. I came on here to post it, but you beat me to it.

 

[EWURanger]

Yeah, he must put a really heavy influence on returning QB's. NAU at #9? I think NAU is going to be good and all, but are they really a top 10 team at this point? When was the last time they were even in the play-offs?

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Yeah, he must put a really heavy influence on returning QB's. NAU at #9? I think NAU is going to be good and all, but are they really a top 10 team at this point? When was the last time they were even in the play-offs?

Well Herrick is good as advertised, and he put up so gaudy numbers on us in that final game last year, so I'm not too surprised about NAU. But despite losing Henderson to graduation, he's got a solid supporting cast returning, plus a FBS transfer WR (Khalil Paden or something like that) from SJSU. Weber State however doesn't have nearly as much returning. I don't know about top 10, but I'd have no qualms with NAU at 15-20.

 

[wineguy]

NAU has a decent O-Line and D-Line along with strong DB's. They have no WR's or RB's returning. They can be beat, but are probably ranked correctly. Weber State has nothing. They have an ok Linebacking corps and DB's...That's it.

 

[EWURanger]

I still think a #9 ranking for NAU after not even making the play-offs or finishing in the top 25 is a bit over the top. No question about Herrick's abilities, but I think they have too much to prove to be ranked in the top 10. 15-20, ok.....but not top 10, IMO.

 

[wineguy]

Looking closer I would say that Sacramento State could be the most improved team in the league. They will have a great defense, returning 7 starters.
It looks like E. Wash. has been under rated. We could have one of the best QB's in the league, best RB, untested WR's but very talented, a very good o-line, a very good d-line, great linebackers and a decent backfield. The only glaring defenciency is a 50% FG kicker.

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Looking closer I would say that Sacramento State could be the most improved team in the league. They will have a great defense, returning 7 starters.
It looks like E. Wash. has been under rated. We could have one of the best QB's in the league, best RB, untested WR's but very talented, a very good o-line, a very good d-line, great linebackers and a decent backfield. The only glaring defenciency is a 50% FG kicker.

Yeah, I really miss Felipe Macias from 2 years ago. He was clutch, and had a LEG. I think he made a 54 yarder against Colorado. He had two 50+ in the first two weeks (Texas Tech, Colorado).

 

[FreeBird]

Certainly untested at TE, but not completely untested at WR.

Edwards had 26 receptions and Kaufman 23, last season. Not 50+ reception veteran guys, but clearly guys that are comfortable on the field and can make plays.

Those guys are good big targets, it would be great if one of the speed burners could show reliable hands and create some space for these guys.

The slot position could be interesting as EWU trys to get one of those untested speed guys on the field, along with Taiwan (40 receptions), Hart(17), and Beaumonte (5)

I like entering the season without the big target on your back of being highly rated, especially with the front loaded schedule. Win some of those tough early games and the higher rating will quickly follow.

 

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Certainly untested at TE, but not completely untested at WR.

Edwards had 26 receptions and Kaufman 23, last season. Not 50+ reception veteran guys, but clearly guys that are comfortable on the field and can make plays.

Those guys are good big targets, it would be great if one of the speed burners could show reliable hands and create some space for these guys.

The slot position could be interesting as EWU trys to get one of those untested speed guys on the field, along with Taiwan (40 receptions), Hart(17), and Beaumonte (5)

I like entering the season without the big target on your back of being highly rated, especially with the front loaded schedule. Win some of those tough early games and the higher rating will quickly follow.

Yeah I'm definitely not worried about WR this year... Kaufmann proved to be BLM's favorite target this spring, and he started having some big games at the end of the season last year. Edwards much of the same. Tyler Hart is great in traffic as the RB/slot receiver role. Shouldn't be much of a drop off from Having Tony Davis.

Good point about our ranking... we're right under the surface outside the top 25 and can rise quickly with a respectable game against Nevada and start off the season knocking off the #4 team, with #20, #16, and #9 to follow. Toward the end of the season SUU could be up there in the rankings too... they've got a good team.