The following is my analysis of the playoff picture for Portland State:
Automatic Bids:
Atlantic 10 - #4 Massachusetts
Big Sky - #2 Montana
Gateway - #3 Illinois State
MEAC - #17 Hampton
Ohio Valley - #12 Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - #31 Holy Cross
Southern - #1 Appalachian State
Southland - #38 McNeese State
At Large Bids
#5 James Madison (A-10 2)
#7 Northern Iowa (Gateway 2)
#8 Furman (Southern Conference 2)
#9 Cal Poly
#10 Youngstown State (Gateway 3)
#11 New Hampshire (A-10 3)
#14 Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley 2)
#18 Princeton (Ivy 1)
At Large Not Selected
#13 Richmond (A-10 4)
#15 Maine (A-10 5)
#19 Southern Illinois (Gateway 4)
#20 San Diego
#21 Portland State (Big Sky 2)
The three teams I put as at the top of At Large Not Selected have a higher ranking that PSU, but are the 4th or 5th team from their conference. Youngstown State and New Hampshire are questionable in the At Large bids due to being 3rd in their conference. The question is, would the selection committee pick a 3rd team from a conference before a 2nd team from the Big Sky? I also didn't factor Montana State into this, as they are ranked lower than us. What really makes things tough is that the 8 conferences have automatic bids, so #31 Holy Cross from the Patriot League, and #38 McNeese State from the Southland Conference get bids ahead of PSU. San Diego is a mid-major, but they have been destroying the teams they have played. Their average scores for the games so far have been 46-7.9. They are 7-0, and the only tough game left is against UC Davis.
Of course, this is assuming that the committee ONLY basis their picks on the polls, which probably isn't the case. Either way, I think we need to move ahead of San Diego, Princeton and Maine to really have a shot. That, and we need Montana State to lose to both Weber State and Montana. You might also notice that some teams that are ranked are missing from this list (North Dakota State, UC Davis). Those teams are not playoff eligible yet. So what do you guys think of the playoff picture?
Automatic Bids:
Atlantic 10 - #4 Massachusetts
Big Sky - #2 Montana
Gateway - #3 Illinois State
MEAC - #17 Hampton
Ohio Valley - #12 Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - #31 Holy Cross
Southern - #1 Appalachian State
Southland - #38 McNeese State
At Large Bids
#5 James Madison (A-10 2)
#7 Northern Iowa (Gateway 2)
#8 Furman (Southern Conference 2)
#9 Cal Poly
#10 Youngstown State (Gateway 3)
#11 New Hampshire (A-10 3)
#14 Eastern Illinois (Ohio Valley 2)
#18 Princeton (Ivy 1)
At Large Not Selected
#13 Richmond (A-10 4)
#15 Maine (A-10 5)
#19 Southern Illinois (Gateway 4)
#20 San Diego
#21 Portland State (Big Sky 2)
The three teams I put as at the top of At Large Not Selected have a higher ranking that PSU, but are the 4th or 5th team from their conference. Youngstown State and New Hampshire are questionable in the At Large bids due to being 3rd in their conference. The question is, would the selection committee pick a 3rd team from a conference before a 2nd team from the Big Sky? I also didn't factor Montana State into this, as they are ranked lower than us. What really makes things tough is that the 8 conferences have automatic bids, so #31 Holy Cross from the Patriot League, and #38 McNeese State from the Southland Conference get bids ahead of PSU. San Diego is a mid-major, but they have been destroying the teams they have played. Their average scores for the games so far have been 46-7.9. They are 7-0, and the only tough game left is against UC Davis.
Of course, this is assuming that the committee ONLY basis their picks on the polls, which probably isn't the case. Either way, I think we need to move ahead of San Diego, Princeton and Maine to really have a shot. That, and we need Montana State to lose to both Weber State and Montana. You might also notice that some teams that are ranked are missing from this list (North Dakota State, UC Davis). Those teams are not playoff eligible yet. So what do you guys think of the playoff picture?
