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Playoff Picture

E

Eagle Talon

Active member
We are out of the hunt for a conference championship or a top seed but we're a lock for the playoff invite with a strong finish and a 9-2 record if we beat Portland State next Saturday. Looking at the conference standings the Big Sky has 5 teams that are playoff eligible. Could 5 Big Sky teams make the playoffs? The worst any of the top 5 can finish is 8-3, so in what scenario do only 4 teams get in? Who's the first out?

MSU (9-1) - Lock for the playoffs and at least a share of the conference title. Will get a top 4 seed and the conference auto-bid with a win at Montana.

Sac St (8-2) - They can share a piece of the title with MSU if they beat UC Davis. If they lose that game, do they get left out with a 7-1 conference record? They really have gotten no love from the polls this season.

EWU (8-2) - Lock for the playoffs with a win over PSU. If we lose do we get left out at 8-3 because of the Division II win, or with the win against FBS UNLV be enough to push us over? Losing 3 of the last 4 games is not a good look and I could see that as enough of a reason to get left out in that scenario.

Montana (8-2) - A win against MSU and they're a lock at 9-2. But if they lose and drop to 5-3 in conference they could be in real trouble depending on what happens with other bubble teams around the country. A loss and I think they're the first team out.

Cal Davis (8-2) - Losing yesterday put real pressure on them to beat Sac State. If they lose they're probably a bubble team, but they also have an FBS win against Tulsa.
 
My vote would be to just BEAT Portland State. Beat them like we are antifa and they are the cops! In years past they have brought some serious injuries on some of our players with cheap shots.
 
Big sky will get 5 in IMO….honestly think the big sky has a shot at 4 seeds….I think our best bet for a higher seed is hoping Sac loses…we will get a seed if we beat PSU.
 
EWURanger said:
Best scenario for getting 5 teams in is if Montana, EWU, and Davis all win their games.
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If the Bobcats win, doesn't make our loss to them look better or not as bad.
 
clawman said:
EWURanger said:
Best scenario for getting 5 teams in is if Montana, EWU, and Davis all win their games.
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If the Bobcats win, doesn't make our loss to them look better or not as bad.
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Honestly doesn’t matter much because they are playing the Griz….a team we also beat who will be in the playoffs
 
All 5 are in barring some kind of 60 point loss next week.

Eastern gets a certain bye with a win, and a likely first round game with a loss…. My hunch is Sam Houston State drops to a 3 seed—- their schedule is total patty cake and I don’t think they’ll get a ton of credit for being undefeated. NDSU and Montana State go #1 and #2 with wins. My guess is Eastern gets the 6 with a win, and would be slated to go SHSU in the second round if both teams win.

Again, all of that completely out the window based on what might happen during the last week.
 
LDopaPDX said:
All 5 are in barring some kind of 60 point loss next week.

Eastern gets a certain bye with a win, and a likely first round game with a loss…. My hunch is Sam Houston State drops to a 3 seed—- their schedule is total patty cake and I don’t think they’ll get a ton of credit for being undefeated. NDSU and Montana State go #1 and #2 with wins. My guess is Eastern gets the 6 with a win, and would be slated to go SHSU in the second round if both teams win.

Again, all of that completely out the window based on what might happen during the last week.
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I think Sam Houston is a lock for the #1 and JMU at #2. Committee tends to not break much from the rankings. I think ndsu gets a 3 and MSU 4, if all teams win. Eastern has an outside shot at the 5…dream scenario in that case but most likely a 6…although I’m not sure who they’d seed above us.

Sac st is the weird one…Will be interesting to see what the committee does with them, especially if they beat Davis
 
marceagfan5 said:
LDopaPDX said:
All 5 are in barring some kind of 60 point loss next week.

Eastern gets a certain bye with a win, and a likely first round game with a loss…. My hunch is Sam Houston State drops to a 3 seed—- their schedule is total patty cake and I don’t think they’ll get a ton of credit for being undefeated. NDSU and Montana State go #1 and #2 with wins. My guess is Eastern gets the 6 with a win, and would be slated to go SHSU in the second round if both teams win.

Again, all of that completely out the window based on what might happen during the last week.
Click to expand...

I think Sam Houston is a lock for the #1 and JMU at #2. Committee tends to not break much from the rankings. I think ndsu gets a 3 and MSU 4, if all teams win. Eastern has an outside shot at the 5…dream scenario in that case but most likely a 6…although I’m not sure who they’d seed above us.

Sac st is the weird one…Will be interesting to see what the committee does with them, especially if they beat Davis
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Sorry, I was typing this while watching TV and completely goofed. I meant to say James Madison #1 and Montana State #2. I guess I'm so accustomed to NDSU at #1 it just seemed natural.

San Houston State is a pickle for me. They only play 10 games, which is always a punishable offense. Eastern Kentucky is the only team they played that *might* have a shot at the playoffs. They are undefeated on a short schedule with no high-quality wins.... certainly nothing on par with our wins over Montana, UC Davis, and maybe even UNLV (who is suddenly playing much better). Their biggest wins are playoff bubble teams with 4 losses also on weak schedules. The biggest argument in their favor is that they are defending champions, but how much weight should the committee give to last season's squad?

I am fairly certain Sac State will get a top-8 if they beat UC Davis. If Montana State beats Montana, then you'd probably see MSU as a high seed, and Eastern and Sac State somewhere between 5-8. If Montana and UC Davis win, chaos ensues. UC Davis winning over Sac State certainly benefits Eastern's SOS, but I'm not sure it changes much on the front end rankings.

Obviously, everything here is based on a scenario of Eastern beating Portland State. If that doesn't happen, we wind up likely getting shipped somewhere over Thanksgiving.
 
Collegesportsmadness projects Eastern headed to South Dakota and headed to Sac State with a win. I seriously doubt the credentials of whoever picked this. Even with a win over UC Davis, I don't see a scenario where Sac State gets a 5 seed barring an absolute train wreck in next weekend's results.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
 
LDopaPDX said:
Collegesportsmadness projects Eastern headed to South Dakota and headed to Sac State with a win. I seriously doubt the credentials of whoever picked this. Even with a win over UC Davis, I don't see a scenario where Sac State gets a 5 seed barring an absolute train wreck in next weekend's results.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
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That bracket is a joke. E. Tennessee State?

With a win over PSU and a 9-2 record I think we’re seeded.
 
EWURanger said:
LDopaPDX said:
Collegesportsmadness projects Eastern headed to South Dakota and headed to Sac State with a win. I seriously doubt the credentials of whoever picked this. Even with a win over UC Davis, I don't see a scenario where Sac State gets a 5 seed barring an absolute train wreck in next weekend's results.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
Click to expand...

That bracket is a joke. E. Tennessee State?

With a win over PSU and a 9-2 record I think we’re seeded.
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Tennessee State is currently 9-1 and not to forget one of our wins is a DII school
After this weekend I think we could have 4 teams in the top 10 if Sac ST gets the respect they have earned. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IEJwTCxJ5pJPnnVbiBlH-NuZ26Bvu3iA9ccC_-7Cl-I/edit#gid=199477165
 
clawman said:
EWURanger said:
LDopaPDX said:
Collegesportsmadness projects Eastern headed to South Dakota and headed to Sac State with a win. I seriously doubt the credentials of whoever picked this. Even with a win over UC Davis, I don't see a scenario where Sac State gets a 5 seed barring an absolute train wreck in next weekend's results.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
Click to expand...

That bracket is a joke. E. Tennessee State?

With a win over PSU and a 9-2 record I think we’re seeded.
Click to expand...

Tennessee State is currently 9-1 and not to forget one of our wins is a DII school
After this weekend I think we could have 4 teams in the top 10 if Sac ST gets the respect they have earned. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IEJwTCxJ5pJPnnVbiBlH-NuZ26Bvu3iA9ccC_-7Cl-I/edit#gid=199477165
Click to expand...

I got that, but I am mildly interested in their record when they play in a terrible conference.
 
New rankings out. One thing of interest is that Sac State #11 in one and coacheshas them #18...fairly big dif.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/stats-perform-fcs-top-25

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll
 
Obzerver said:
New rankings out. One thing of interest is that Sac State #11 in one and coacheshas them #18...fairly big dif.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/stats-perform-fcs-top-25

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/fcs/fcs-coaches-poll
Click to expand...

Outside of beating Montana with the Griz backup QB they dont have any impressive wins…they don’t play us, MSU or Weber…they play Davis this weekend and can earn some respect with a win there. I think it’s in our best interest if Davis wins Saturday as I can see the committee seeding sac higher than us if they win…
 
If we take care of PSU, we will get at least one more home game for our seniors! Attendance is notoriously horrendous in December, despite an excellent win record when removing 4 semi-finals :).

Be sure to support our students!
 
tomq04 said:
If we take care of PSU, we will get at least one more home game for our seniors! Attendance is notoriously horrendous in December, despite an excellent win record when removing 4 semi-finals :).

Be sure to support our students!
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tomq04, so if we do dispatch PSU we'll get a home game for sure? When does the bidding for games start?
 
Obzerver said:
tomq04 said:
If we take care of PSU, we will get at least one more home game for our seniors! Attendance is notoriously horrendous in December, despite an excellent win record when removing 4 semi-finals :).

Be sure to support our students!
Click to expand...

tomq04, so if we do dispatch PSU we'll get a home game for sure? When does the bidding for games start?
Click to expand...

If we beat PSU we should be an absolute lock for a seed 5-8…which means a bye week then a home game
 
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