PLAYOFF Prediction Thread Eastern v UC Davis

[LDopaPDX]

I don't think the first game can be used as much of a barometer other than the fact Eastern should be confident after having beaten this team once already. The giant scoreline in the first game was largely due to UC Davis shutting down after the mid-3rd quarter.

The two keys for me offensively are coming out fired up and continuing to run the football effectively. The one issue Eastern had the first go-round was that the team was really slow to get into the game. This problem manifested again with Nicholls State as well. As the competition gets better, there can't be slow starts. As for running the ball, Eastern was hugely effective late in the game pushing Davis around.


Defensively, it starts with getting the best personnel out on the field. We've taken some lumps recently, but we can't be down a number of players and expect to continue to dominate defensively. Also, the only realy issue I could see from the first game was Eastern not adjusting to some of the motion Davis ran pre-play. That could be seen in their long run right before halftime. Eastern didn't shift to the motion side and got outflanked.

 

[luckyintheorder]

I don't think the first game can be used as much of a barometer other than the fact Eastern should be confident after having beaten this team once already. The giant scoreline in the first game was largely due to UC Davis shutting down after the mid-3rd quarter.

The two keys for me offensively are coming out fired up and continuing to run the football effectively. The one issue Eastern had the first go-round was that the team was really slow to get into the game. This problem manifested again with Nicholls State as well. As the competition gets better, there can't be slow starts. As for running the ball, Eastern was hugely effective late in the game pushing Davis around.


Defensively, it starts with getting the best personnel out on the field. We've taken some lumps recently, but we can't be down a number of players and expect to continue to dominate defensively. Also, the only realy issue I could see from the first game was Eastern not adjusting to some of the motion Davis ran pre-play. That could be seen in their long run right before halftime. Eastern didn't shift to the motion side and got outflanked.

Looking for a fast start this week now that the team has gotten re-acclimated to playoff football. Is Davis somehow an improved team over the one Eastern faced weeks ago? This is a lot like a couple years ago when Eastern beat Montana than beat Montana again. Know everyone on the board was impressed with Davis's turnaround under Hawkins, not sure it's any more miraculous than Eastern's turnaround this season under Best. I, for one, am done selling the team short without any evidence.

My apologies Dopa. Not sure how you would propose to do this.. Sometimes you crack me up

Defensively, it starts with getting the best personnel out on the field.

Of the available talent, who should be on the field who hasn't been? Don't think we can play someone who's been redshirting (rule is still unclear to me) They certainly wouldn't have the sixth sense about what every one else who has been playing does in a game situation. We don't have that "stellar" athlete just sitting, they would have already been playing. The players out there have been getting a lot of playing time, they may not be a plug and play replacement for those who are injured, but they are the best the team has. At that point, it's up to Coaching and on the field leadership from a senior laden group. Eastern will be fine everything else being equal.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I’ve found toradol solves a lot of problems! :thumb:

 

[LDopaPDX]

Also, you can play four games and still redshirt... any four games. Trey Adams from UW is redshirting but played last week and will play in the bowl game.

The thing I’m not sure about is whether that applies to a medical redshirt. I suspect it doesn’t.

 

[Hambone]

Also, you can play four games and still redshirt... any four games. Trey Adams from UW is redshirting but played last week and will play in the bowl game.

The thing I’m not sure about is whether that applies to a medical redshirt. I suspect it doesn’t.

True, but aren’t there some guys that could contribute now that are just regular redshirts? Tre Weed comes to mind. We lost our 2 starting safeties so why wouldn’t the coaches play some of these guys if there’s no effect on eligibility?

 

[flyingnail]

Thinking this game is a 50/50 game, come out hot, games yours to lose, start slow, UCD will smell blood and not look back. Very hard to beat a team twice in the same season let alone the playoffs where win you move on, lose you go home. No one remembers that 96yrd run in the 1st qtr but will remember that missed field goal for the win forever. Put the hurt on them early and leave no doubt !!!! GO EAGS

 

[luckyintheorder]

Also, you can play four games and still redshirt... any four games. Trey Adams from UW is redshirting but played last week and will play in the bowl game.

The thing I’m not sure about is whether that applies to a medical redshirt. I suspect it doesn’t.

True, but aren’t there some guys that could contribute now that are just regular redshirts? Tre Weed comes to mind. We lost our 2 starting safeties so why wouldn’t the coaches play some of these guys if there’s no effect on eligibility?

Correct me if I'm worng Dopa, I think this was part of your thoughts too. Looking at the roster, Eags have quite a few upperclassman available despite the injuries to Fettig and Prunty (might have him back this week). Those upperclassmen have gotten some playing time. Aside from Weed, who has already played (punt returns mostly) in his four games per the roster games stats, not sure there are any other redshirts at Hayes or Criner's level. There is also team gestalt to consider. The coaches are positioning "next man up" and that is a sign of confidence. Moving a freshman in over the current depth chart sends a poor signal IMO. Gurley is the only redshirt this season who played a lot last season. Don't have the whole story on him, know he impressed with his aggressiveness. Other than that not sure who could step in and make plays right away. Anyway, here is the roster link for your perusal.

https://goeags.com/roster.aspx?path=football&roster=185&

Two Deep UC Davis:
https://goeags.com/documents/2018/8/27/18fbTWODEEP.pdf

 

[luckyintheorder]

Also, you can play four games and still redshirt... any four games. Trey Adams from UW is redshirting but played last week and will play in the bowl game.

The thing I’m not sure about is whether that applies to a medical redshirt. I suspect it doesn’t.

True, but aren’t there some guys that could contribute now that are just regular redshirts? Tre Weed comes to mind. We lost our 2 starting safeties so why wouldn’t the coaches play some of these guys if there’s no effect on eligibility?

Correct me if I'm worng Dopa, I think this was part of your thoughts too. Looking at the roster, Eags have quite a few upperclassman available despite the injuries to Fettig and Prunty (might have him back this week). Those upperclassmen have gotten some playing time. Aside from Weed, who has already played (punt returns mostly) in his four games per the roster games stats, not sure there are any other redshirts at Hayes or Criner's level. There is also team gestalt to consider. The coaches are positioning "next man up" and that is a sign of confidence. Moving a freshman in over the current depth chart sends a poor signal IMO. Gurley is the only redshirt this season who played a lot last season. Don't have the whole story on him, know he impressed with his aggressiveness. Other than that not sure who could step in and make plays right away. Anyway, here is the roster link for your perusal.

https://goeags.com/roster.aspx?path=football&roster=185&

Two Deep UC Davis:
https://goeags.com/documents/2018/8/27/18fbTWODEEP.pdf

**Just came back from my fortress of solitude aka, the shower and I had this vision (this is the predictions thread afterall) of making the Natty against those whose name shall not be spoken. Anyway, after the semi's and early signing period are over, the coaches have a couple extra days to prepare... they take a Gurley, Weed, Sise and others and create a scheme 2 DL 1 LB and 8 DB (big DB's) for third and long to create confusion, possible blitzes from all angles with speed, all sorts of zone looks etc.. just to see if they can get a critical timeout, a pick or a big sack... Anyway, it was cooler in my head. Chaos in action.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Thought this was interesting so wanted to share.

Have seen a lot of posts about "it's harder to win the rematch". No one has posted any data to support that contention. I have probably bought into that supposition in the past as well. It's like an old wives tale, we just accept it.

I would contend the best team wins more frequently both contests, again, unsupported. After an exhaustive search of the internet only found 1 article that addresses the rematch phenomenon in the NFL. Probably as close as we can come to college football and it for a number of years in the modern era, so better than any single season statistical analysis.

Key takeaways in all cases:
Home team wins more often
Best team wins even more often
Team that wins first game wins more often

Winning
The home team has won 55.6 percent of divisional games from 2002-2013. Maybe the familiarity with each other has an impact there, because home teams have won 58.6 percent of non-divisional games and 59.9 percent of non-conference games (the least familiar opponents a team will play). When teams know each other so well, something like home field should become less important because even the experience of playing in that environment is already known to the opponent.

Something we often hear about in rematches is that the losing team had more to learn from the first game. That makes sense in theory. Schwartz notes that "it's also easier to game plan wrinkles in a rematch if you lost. The scheme advantage would go to them because the winning team isn't changing much. They will use what got them there."

Schwartz played in two very high-profile rematches in recent years. In 2012, Schwartz and the Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay 37-34 in Week 17, then matched up again just six days later in the NFC wild card game. Schwartz says the Vikings ran the exact same game plan, but the quarterback was different. Minnesota had to play Joe Webb instead of an injured Christian Ponder and lost 24-10. Last year with Kansas City, Schwartz and the Chiefs lost 23-7 in Week 16 to Indianapolis. Just 13 days later the Chiefs raced out to a 38-10 lead in the AFC wild card game, even after losing Jamaal Charles to injury, before falling victim to a monster Colts comeback. "We played badly in the Week 16 game, but I knew we could score," Schwartz said. "We ran way more sub/nickel runs in the playoff game so they couldn't pack the box. Especially way more read option than usual. That was a wrinkle we could add."
In theory it should be easier for you to correct your own mistakes than for the opponent to repeat their performance or tinker with a new way of finding success. However, what we often see is that one team is simply better than the other, and that gap is too much to make up regardless of what the first game taught the teams.
The first 576 divisional series in the eight-division era have featured 328 sweeps (56.9 percent). So more often than not, the team which wins the first game wins the second game as well. Here's a further breakdown.

Home Team in Divisional Games, 2002-2013
Split
Record
Pct.
Home (all)
639-511-2
0.556
Home (2002-2007)
314-262
0.545
Home (2008-2013)
325-249-2
0.566
Record in Divisional Rematch, 2002-2013
Split
Record
Pct.
Won first game (all)
328-246-1
0.571
Won first game (home)
162-155
0.511
Won first game (road)
166-91-1
0.645
Something interesting here is that when the home team wins the first meeting, that team is only seven games above .500 in the road rematch. However, when the road team is able to win the first game, they win 64.5 percent of the time in the rematch, which is considerably higher than the normal home-field advantage demonstrated in the upper half of the table. A good sign of a superior team is to come out and win the first meeting regardless of being on the road, which is what we saw happen on Thanksgiving with Philadelphia and Seattle winning in Dallas and San Francisco.

Full article link:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-divisional-rematches-study

 

[rontheoldwiseeagle2]

Also, you can play four games and still redshirt... any four games. Trey Adams from UW is redshirting but played last week and will play in the bowl game.

The thing I’m not sure about is whether that applies to a medical redshirt. I suspect it doesn’t.

True, but aren’t there some guys that could contribute now that are just regular redshirts? Tre Weed comes to mind. We lost our 2 starting safeties so why wouldn’t the coaches play some of these guys if there’s no effect on eligibility?

Correct me if I'm worng Dopa, I think this was part of your thoughts too. Looking at the roster, Eags have quite a few upperclassman available despite the injuries to Fettig and Prunty (might have him back this week). Those upperclassmen have gotten some playing time. Aside from Weed, who has already played (punt returns mostly) in his four games per the roster games stats, not sure there are any other redshirts at Hayes or Criner's level. There is also team gestalt to consider. The coaches are positioning "next man up" and that is a sign of confidence. Moving a freshman in over the current depth chart sends a poor signal IMO. Gurley is the only redshirt this season who played a lot last season. Don't have the whole story on him, know he impressed with his aggressiveness. Other than that not sure who could step in and make plays right away. Anyway, here is the roster link for your perusal.

https://goeags.com/roster.aspx?path...oeags.com/documents/2018/8/27/18fbTWODEEP.pdf

**Just came back from my fortress of solitude aka, the shower and I had this vision (this is the predictions thread afterall) of making the Natty against those whose name shall not be spoken. Anyway, after the semi's and early signing period are over, the coaches have a couple extra days to prepare... they take a Gurley, Weed, Sise and others and create a scheme 2 DL 1 LB and 8 DB (big DB's) for third and long to create confusion, possible blitzes from all angles with speed, all sorts of zone looks etc.. just to see if they can get a critical timeout, a pick or a big sack... Anyway, it was cooler in my head. Chaos in action.

What the hell was in that shower?????????????????

 

[Obzerver]

 

[luckyintheorder]

Also, you can play four games and still redshirt... any four games. Trey Adams from UW is redshirting but played last week and will play in the bowl game.

The thing I’m not sure about is whether that applies to a medical redshirt. I suspect it doesn’t.

True, but aren’t there some guys that could contribute now that are just regular redshirts? Tre Weed comes to mind. We lost our 2 starting safeties so why wouldn’t the coaches play some of these guys if there’s no effect on eligibility?

Correct me if I'm worng Dopa, I think this was part of your thoughts too. Looking at the roster, Eags have quite a few upperclassman available despite the injuries to Fettig and Prunty (might have him back this week). Those upperclassmen have gotten some playing time. Aside from Weed, who has already played (punt returns mostly) in his four games per the roster games stats, not sure there are any other redshirts at Hayes or Criner's level. There is also team gestalt to consider. The coaches are positioning "next man up" and that is a sign of confidence. Moving a freshman in over the current depth chart sends a poor signal IMO. Gurley is the only redshirt this season who played a lot last season. Don't have the whole story on him, know he impressed with his aggressiveness. Other than that not sure who could step in and make plays right away. Anyway, here is the roster link for your perusal.

https://goeags.com/roster.aspx?path...oeags.com/documents/2018/8/27/18fbTWODEEP.pdf

**Just came back from my fortress of solitude aka, the shower and I had this vision (this is the predictions thread afterall) of making the Natty against those whose name shall not be spoken. Anyway, after the semi's and early signing period are over, the coaches have a couple extra days to prepare... they take a Gurley, Weed, Sise and others and create a scheme 2 DL 1 LB and 8 DB (big DB's) for third and long to create confusion, possible blitzes from all angles with speed, all sorts of zone looks etc.. just to see if they can get a critical timeout, a pick or a big sack... Anyway, it was cooler in my head. Chaos in action.

What the hell was in that shower?????????????????

:lol: :lol:

 

[FormerEag]

Shout out to the 7 grizzz lurkers who voted in this poll

 

[marceagfan5]

Not going to be close...we won’t win by 39 but we will win big...I think it’s a bit kicking from the start

EWU 49
Davis 24