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Playoff Predictions

W

WSUWildcat

Active member
Way too early, Weber still has a tough schedule ahead. However, at this point we still control our own destiny for the Big Sky and likely playoff seeding.

Two sites currently predict Weber as a seed.

http://nobowls.com/
4 Big Sky teams with 3 of them seeded
Weber is a 5 seed meeting a 4 seed Montana in the quarterfinals

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/17888
5 Big Sky teams with 2 seeds
Weber is a 4 seed meeting a 5 seed Montana in the quarterfinals

Interesting, though we really just need to win each game and see what happens.
 
Conference standings after Week 7

UM 2-0 (5-0 vs FCS)
Sac 2-0 (3-0 vs FCS)
WSU 2-0 (4-0 vs FCS)
MSU 2-1 (5-1 vs FCS)
PSU 2-1 (2-1 vs FCS)
ISU 2-1 (2-2 vs FCS)
EWU 2-1 (2-3 vs FCS)
NAU 1-1 (2-2 vs FCS)
UCD 1-2 (3-3 vs FCS)
CP 1-2 (2-3 vs FCS)
UNC 1-2 (1-4 vs FCS)
UI 0-3 (1-3 vs FCS)
SUU 0-3 (1-5 vs FCS)

I think 8 FCS/FBS wins guarantees a playoff bid. The conference has no FBS wins, with one FBS game remaining (ISU @ BYU). I think 7 FCS/FBS wins puts a team on the bubble.

UM - 5 FCS wins. 6 FCS games remaining - @Sac, EWU, @PSU, UI, WSU, @MSU
MSU - 5 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @UND, SUU, @UNC, @UCD, UM
WSU - 4 FCS wins. 6 FCS games remaining - NAU, @UCD, @Sac, UND, @UM, ISU
Sac - 3 FCS wins. 6 FCS games remaining - UM, @CP, WSU, @NAU, @UI, UCD
UCD - 3 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @SUU, WSU, @PSU, MSU, @Sac
PSU - 2 FCS wins. 6 FCS games remaining - @UNC, @NAU, UM, UCD, UNC, @EWU
ISU - 2 FCS wins. 6 FCS/FBS games remaining - @UI, @SUU, UNC, EWU, @BYU, @WSU
EWU - 2 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @UM, NAU, @ISU, @CP, PSU
NAU - 2 FCS wins. 6 FCS games remaining - @WSU, PSU, @EWU, Sac, @SUU, UI
CP - 2 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - UND, Sac, @UI, EWU, @UNC
UNC - 1 FCS win. 5 FCS games remaining - PSU, @ISU, MSU, @PSU, CP
UI - 1 FCS win. 5 FCS games remaining - ISU, CP, @UM, Sac, @NAU
SUU - 1 FCS win. 5 FCS games remaining - UCD, ISU, @MSU, NAU, UND

To get to 8/7 FCS/FBS wins:
UM needs to go 3-3/2-4
MSU needs to go 3-2/2-3
WSU needs to go 4-2/3-3
Sac needs to go 5-1/4-2
UCD needs to go 5-0/4-1
PSU needs to go 6-0/5-1
ISU needs to go 6-0/5-1
NAU needs to go 6-0/5-1

EWU cannot get 8 wins/5-0
CP cannot get 8 wins/5-0

UNC cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UI cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
SUU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
 
I think Weber gets in with 7 wins because two of their losses were close losses to FBS teams and because of their recent history. To get 7 Weber needs to go 3-3. Going 3-0 at home should lock a playoff bid. To get 8 wins and a possible seed, they need to win out at home and steal at least 1 on the road. All three remaining road games will be difficult, @UCD, @Sac, and @UM.
 
SWeberCat02 said:
I think Weber gets in with 7 wins because two of their losses were close losses to FBS teams and because of their recent history. To get 7 Weber needs to go 3-3. Going 3-0 at home should lock a playoff bid. To get 8 wins and a possible seed, they need to win out at home and steal at least 1 on the road. All three remaining road games will be difficult, @UCD, @Sac, and @UM.
Click to expand...

I think we need to be Hornet fans this week. A Montana loss and and a Weber win against Sac St is ideal.

If Weber can get at least a split in Northern California and hold serve at home, it will come down to the Griz v Weber for the title/seed.

To remain seeded, Weber needs to win 2 of 3 on the road and win out at home.
 
Playoffs? Don’t talk about the playoffs. Playoffs? You kidding me?

Seriously though, if Weber State drops NAU at home, I see them maybe picking up 1 win on what’s left of the schedule. The pass defense is being exposed, and the offense is what it is.
 
Chex said:
Playoffs? Don’t talk about the playoffs. Playoffs? You kidding me?

Seriously though, if Weber State drops NAU at home, I see them maybe picking up 1 win on what’s left of the schedule. The pass defense is being exposed, and the offense is what it is.
Click to expand...


There isnt a team left on our schedule we can't beat. We scored 51 points today all on the ground, I believe the offense deserves a high five. Defense gave up big plays yes but we still held them to 7 points in the 2nd half while outscoring them 37-7.
 
WILDCAT said:
Chex said:
Playoffs? Don’t talk about the playoffs. Playoffs? You kidding me?

Seriously though, if Weber State drops NAU at home, I see them maybe picking up 1 win on what’s left of the schedule. The pass defense is being exposed, and the offense is what it is.
Click to expand...


There isnt a team left on our schedule we can't beat. We scored 51 points today all on the ground, I believe the offense deserves a high five. Defense gave up big plays yes but we still held them to 7 points in the 2nd half while outscoring them 37-7.
Click to expand...

Way too early to be thinking ahead to possible playoffs. I'm more optimistic about our chances with the remaining schedule but @Chex has valid points. The pass D has certainly been exposed, especially with the corners and to a slightly lesser degree the safety's. I'm not sure why NAU didn't get a little more pass happy than they did. Offensively, JD was/is a stud! However, NAU run defense is suspect at best. O-line looked a little better but still struggles with pass rush and play call is still frustrating-- most definitely "is what it is."

NAU 1-2 BSC/3-4 Overall/0-4 Away and being outscored 51-32 in road games. @UCD (2-2/4-4), @SAC (3-0/5-2), @UM (2-1/5-2), and even vsISU (2-2/3-4) represents a challenge in 4 of the last 5. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Weber finishes 4-1 in the last 5, but worry they loose a couple of them. I agree "there isn't a team left on (the) schedule (they) can't beat;" however, I see at least 4 teams left on the schedule very capable of handing Weber a L.

I hope 100% of Weber's focus is squarely on @UCD and ways to improve the secondary defensively, and by some miracle the play call and execution offensively, including all aspects of throwing the ball.
 
The next two games will be very telling. I think the Wildcats can hold serve at home, but the road games look extremely tough. I think the best one the Wildcats match up against is at UC Davis. Sac State and Montana look very formidable.

I agree that the Wildcats are capable of winning every game, but they will need better pass defense and an aggressive offense that goes all out the whole game. Lots of inconsistency with this team. Have to take them as they come. Better bring their best the rest of the year.

Good to see Hill get a win vs NAU. Now he has a win vs every Big Sky team. If the Wildcats would have lost today, it could have been grim. What an amazing game by Josh Davis!
 
Chex said:
The next two games will be very telling. I think the Wildcats can hold serve at home, but the road games look extremely tough. I think the best one the Wildcats match up against is at UC Davis. Sac State and Montana look very formidable.

I agree that the Wildcats are capable of winning every game, but they will need better pass defense and an aggressive offense that goes all out the whole game. Lots of inconsistency with this team. Have to take them as they come. Better bring their best the rest of the year.

Good to see Hill get a win vs NAU. Now he has a win vs every Big Sky team. If the Wildcats would have lost today, it could have been grim. What an amazing game by Josh Davis!
Click to expand...
I watched a lot of both the UM/Sac and UCD/SUU games this evening. Sac could do just about anything they wanted against the UM defense. I think they exposed that Defense quite a bit. SUU seemed to be able to run the ball against UCD and made a big comeback by doing just that. We already saw what SUU could do against us and it was mostly in the pass game, until we started putting pressure on their QB. UCD stopped their pass game but seemed unable to stop the run.

Out of our remaining schedule Sac scares me the most. UCD and UM are good and could beat us, but I am more comfortable playing them than Sac. Sac is for real and we are going to have to play really solid D to beat them on their field.
 
Conference standings after Week 8

WSU 3-0 (5-0 vs FCS)
Sac 3-0 (4-0 vs FCS)
PSU 3-1 (3-1 vs FCS)
UM 2-1 (5-1 vs FCS)
MSU 2-1 (5-1 vs FCS)
EWU 2-1 (2-3 vs FCS)
UCD 2-2 (4-3 vs FCS)
ISU 2-2 (2-3 vs FCS)
NAU 1-2 (2-3 vs FCS)
UI 1-3 (2-3 vs FCS)
CP 1-3 (2-4 vs FCS)
UNC 1-3 (1-5 vs FCS)
SUU 0-4 (1-6 vs FCS)

I think 8 FCS/FBS wins guarantees a playoff bid. The conference has no FBS wins, with one FBS game remaining (ISU @ BYU). I think 7 FCS/FBS wins puts a team on the bubble.

UM - 5 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - EWU, @PSU, UI, WSU, @MSU
MSU - 5 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @UND, SUU, @UNC, @UCD, UM
WSU - 5 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @UCD, @Sac, UND, @UM, ISU
Sac - 4 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @CP, WSU, @NAU, @UI, UCD
UCD - 4 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - WSU, @PSU, MSU, @Sac
PSU - 3 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @NAU, UM, UCD, UNC, @EWU
EWU - 2 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - @UM, NAU, @ISU, @CP, PSU
ISU - 2 FCS wins. 5 FCS/FBS games remaining - @SUU, UNC, EWU, @BYU, @WSU
NAU - 2 FCS wins. 5 FCS games remaining - PSU, @EWU, Sac, @SUU, UI
CP - 2 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - Sac, @UI, EWU, @UNC
UI - 2 FCS win. 4 FCS games remaining - CP, @UM, Sac, @NAU
UNC - 1 FCS win. 4 FCS games remaining - @ISU, MSU, @PSU, CP
SUU - 1 FCS win. 4 FCS games remaining - ISU, @MSU, NAU, UND

To get to 8/7 FCS/FBS wins:
UM needs to go 3-2/2-3
MSU needs to go 3-2/2-3
WSU needs to go 3-2/2-3
Sac needs to go 4-1/3-2
UCD needs to go 4-0/3-1
PSU needs to go 5-0/4-1

ISU cannot get 8 wins/5-0
NAU cannot get 8 wins/5-0
EWU cannot get 8 wins/5-0

CP cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UNC cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UI cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
SUU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
 
WILDCAT said:
Chex said:
Playoffs? Don’t talk about the playoffs. Playoffs? You kidding me?

Seriously though, if Weber State drops NAU at home, I see them maybe picking up 1 win on what’s left of the schedule. The pass defense is being exposed, and the offense is what it is.
Click to expand...


There isnt a team left on our schedule we can't beat. We scored 51 points today all on the ground, I believe the offense deserves a high five. Defense gave up big plays yes but we still held them to 7 points in the 2nd half while outscoring them 37-7.
Click to expand...

This...

I agree with Wildcat. I think the Cats can beat anyone left on our schedule. However, Weber definitely cant overlook anyone either, because they could lose every game left on our schedule too. Starts this weekend in Davis. Gotta bring the O and limit the passing game. Make them one dimensional and force them to stop our running attack. Davis, from what I can tell, is very similar to NAU. Great offense that can move the ball, but the defense isn't the strongest. Better than NAU though in both regards. Can't give Davis hope going into halftime.
 
Conference standings after Week 9

WSU 4-0 (6-0 vs FCS)
Sac 4-0 (5-0 vs FCS)
UM 3-1 (6-1 vs FCS)
PSU 3-2 (3-2 vs FCS)
MSU 2-2 (5-2 vs FCS)
NAU 2-2 (3-3 vs FCS)
EWU 2-2 (2-4 vs FCS)
UCD 2-3 (4-4 vs FCS)
ISU 2-3 (2-4 vs FCS)
UI 1-3 (2-3 vs FCS)
UNC 1-3 (1-5 vs FCS)
CP 1-4 (2-5 vs FCS)
SUU 1-4 (2-6 vs FCS)

I think 8 FCS/FBS wins guarantees a playoff bid. The conference has no FBS wins, with one FBS game remaining (ISU @ BYU). I think 7 FCS/FBS wins puts a team on the bubble.

UM - 6 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - @PSU, UI, WSU, @MSU
WSU - 6 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - @Sac, UND, @UM, ISU
MSU - 5 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - SUU, @UNC, @UCD, UM
Sac - 5 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - WSU, @NAU, @UI, UCD
UCD - 4 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - @PSU, MSU, @Sac
NAU - 3 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - @EWU, Sac, @SUU, UI
PSU - 3 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - UM, UCD, UNC, @EWU
EWU - 2 FCS wins. 4 FCS games remaining - NAU, @ISU, @CP, PSU
UI - 2 FCS win. 4 FCS games remaining - CP, @UM, Sac, @NAU
ISU - 2 FCS wins. 4 FCS/FBS games remaining - UNC, EWU, @BYU, @WSU
CP - 2 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - @UI, EWU, @UNC
SUU - 2 FCS win. 3 FCS games remaining - @MSU, NAU, UND
UNC - 1 FCS win. 4 FCS games remaining - @ISU, MSU, @PSU, CP


To get to 8/7 FCS/FBS wins:
UM needs to go 2-2/1-3
WSU needs to go 2-2/1-3
MSU needs to go 3-1/2-2
Sac needs to go 3-1/2-2

UCD cannot get 8 wins/3-0
NAU cannot get 8 wins/4-0
PSU cannot get 8 wins/4-0

EWU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UI cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
ISU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
CP cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
SUU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UNC cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
 
Six teams, EWU, UI, ISU, CP, SUU, and UNC, unofficially eliminated. Very unlikely any of the three teams on the bubble, UCD, NAU, and PSU, go undefeated to get consideration. Looking at the remaining schedules of the other four teams, UM, WSU, MSU, and Sac St, and all four look to be in pretty good positions to make the playoffs. So, unless all hell breaks loose in the final four weeks, I think we have our playoff teams.
 
SWeberCat02 said:
Six teams, EWU, UI, ISU, CP, SUU, and UNC, unofficially eliminated. Very unlikely any of the three teams on the bubble, UCD, NAU, and PSU, go undefeated to get consideration. Looking at the remaining schedules of the other four teams, UM, WSU, MSU, and Sac St, and all four look to be in pretty good positions to make the playoffs. So, unless all hell breaks loose in the final four weeks, I think we have our playoff teams.
Click to expand...

Does UND get hot and steal a playoff spot from MSU?
 
WSUWildcat said:
SWeberCat02 said:
Six teams, EWU, UI, ISU, CP, SUU, and UNC, unofficially eliminated. Very unlikely any of the three teams on the bubble, UCD, NAU, and PSU, go undefeated to get consideration. Looking at the remaining schedules of the other four teams, UM, WSU, MSU, and Sac St, and all four look to be in pretty good positions to make the playoffs. So, unless all hell breaks loose in the final four weeks, I think we have our playoff teams.
Click to expand...

Does UND get hot and steal a playoff spot from MSU?
Click to expand...

UND has 5 FCS wins. Games @WSU, UNC, and SUU left. They should get to 7 wins. With how the FCS has gone this seaon, I don't think it's unrealistic that they get an invite in addition to 4 Big Sky teams. But what hurts them is they only play 11 games.
 
SWeberCat02 said:
WSUWildcat said:
SWeberCat02 said:
Six teams, EWU, UI, ISU, CP, SUU, and UNC, unofficially eliminated. Very unlikely any of the three teams on the bubble, UCD, NAU, and PSU, go undefeated to get consideration. Looking at the remaining schedules of the other four teams, UM, WSU, MSU, and Sac St, and all four look to be in pretty good positions to make the playoffs. So, unless all hell breaks loose in the final four weeks, I think we have our playoff teams.
Click to expand...

Does UND get hot and steal a playoff spot from MSU?
Click to expand...

UND has 5 FCS wins. Games @WSU, UNC, and SUU left. They should get to 7 wins. With how the FCS has gone this seaon, I don't think it's unrealistic that they get an invite in addition to 4 Big Sky teams. But what hurts them is they only play 11 games.
Click to expand...

It was definitely a bit of a gamble by our AD, Chaves, to play only 11 games. We could have bought an easy W, I'm sure, and we definitely could have used the FBS money. He was thinking that the schedule this year would be difficult enough that 7 wins with our SOS would get us in to the playoffs. I think it's still more likely that it does than doesn't, but it is a risk with EWU and UCD having unexpectedly down years, though UCD's schedule has been crazy difficult. On the bright side, he got us an extra bye week in return, and our guys will finally have a chance to heal up before our game next week. Really hoping you guys can pull off the win vs Sac, because we don't play them this year and it would look a hell of a lot better to win or lose to a #3 Weber team than tenish ranked Weber, with Montana still left to play (who we don't). UND has to be one of your biggest fans to warp up this season.
 
If, as it looks, the 4 BSC teams to distinguish themselves as play off teams have been established, then all that remains is who might get a seeding and home field advantage. There is still a lot to play for and all of the games count. As a fan it just gets more exciting. It gives me an interest in what the other three teams are doing as well. :coffee:
 
Seems pretty likely Montana State will be funneled to Weber if we end up with a seed.

And I think a 2-1 finish gets Weber a seed.
 
The Dan said:
Seems pretty likely Montana State will be funneled to Weber if we end up with a seed.

And I think a 2-1 finish gets Weber a seed.
Click to expand...

Assuming Montana and Weber get seeds and Sacramento, Montana St, and UND are also in. I would anticipate a bracket that looks like this with the winner of the Montana/Weber game being the higher seed and potentially meeting in the Quarterfinals.

Sacramento St hosting North Dakota -> Montana
Montana St hosting San Diego-> Weber St

Obviously there is still a lot of football to play.
UND and Montana St will need to finish at least 2-1.
Sacramento St is likely in with at least one more win.
Weber and Montana are virtual locks unless they totally melt down and lose three straight.
 
Conference standings after Week 10

WSU 5-0 (7-0 vs FCS)
UM 4-1 (7-1 vs FCS)
Sac 4-1 (5-1 vs FCS)
MSU 3-2 (6-2 vs FCS)
EWU 3-2 (3-4 vs FCS)
PSU 3-3 (3-3 vs FCS)
UCD 2-3 (4-4 vs FCS)
NAU 2-3 (3-4 vs FCS)
UI 2-3 (3-3 vs FCS)
UNC 2-3 (2-5 vs FCS)
ISU 2-4 (2-5 vs FCS)
CP 1-5 (2-6 vs FCS)
SUU 1-5 (2-7 vs FCS)

I think 8 FCS/FBS wins guarantees a playoff bid. The conference has no FBS wins, with one FBS game remaining (ISU @ BYU). I think 7 FCS/FBS wins puts a team on the bubble.

UM - 7 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - UI, WSU, @MSU
WSU - 7 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - UND, @UM, ISU
MSU - 6 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - @UNC, @UCD, UM
Sac - 5 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - @NAU, @UI, UCD
UCD - 4 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - @PSU, MSU, @Sac
NAU - 3 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - Sac, @SUU, UI
PSU - 3 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - UCD, UNC, @EWU
EWU - 3 FCS wins. 3 FCS games remaining - @ISU, @CP, PSU
UI - 3 FCS win. 3 FCS games remaining - @UM, Sac, @NAU
ISU - 2 FCS wins. 3 FCS/FBS games remaining - EWU, @BYU, @WSU
UNC - 2 FCS win. 3 FCS games remaining - MSU, @PSU, CP
CP - 2 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - EWU, @UNC
SUU - 2 FCS win. 2 FCS games remaining - NAU, UND



To get to 8/7 FCS/FBS wins:
UM needs to go 1-2/At 7 Wins
WSU needs to go 1-2/At 7 Wins

MSU needs to go 2-1/1-2
Sac needs to go 3-1/2-1

UCD cannot get 8 wins/3-0

NAU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
PSU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
EWU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UI cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
ISU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
CP cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
SUU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UNC cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
 
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