Playoff Predictions

[SWeberCat02]

Add NAU and PSU to the unofficially eliminated list

 

[the dan]

I still think Sac State ends up seeded.

The playoff committee is releasing their Top 100 Wednesday evening. Weber could conceivably be anywhere between 2-4. I think we have a better resume than JMU.

 

[SWWeatherCat]

Anyone know the extent of the injury to Thomson or if/when he's expected back? That could say much about where SAC lands in the playoffs. Looking at the different rankings, I like to see SAC ahead of UM despite this last weekend's results. After all, SAC handed UM a pretty solid L. I guess if Thomson is going to miss game(s) that could definitely calculate into SACs strength/rank.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Anyone know the extent of the injury to Thomson or if/when he's expected back? That could say much about where SAC lands in the playoffs. Looking at the different rankings, I like to see SAC ahead of UM despite this last weekend's results. After all, SAC handed UM a pretty solid L. I guess if Thomson is going to miss game(s) that could definitely calculate into SACs strength/rank.

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/article236735393.html

"Sac State trailed 16-10 late in the half when Thomson was crushed on a blind-side blitz. He sat on the turf for several moments to collect himself as coach Troy Taylor and two trainers comforted him.

The third-year starter was able to walk off the field on his own power, and Thomson slowly walked to the locker room, done in by a sore neck and back.


Thomson was taken to a hospital for observation, though his condition does not appear to be serious."

 

[WSUWildcat]

Anyone know the extent of the injury to Thomson or if/when he's expected back? That could say much about where SAC lands in the playoffs. Looking at the different rankings, I like to see SAC ahead of UM despite this last weekend's results. After all, SAC handed UM a pretty solid L. I guess if Thomson is going to miss game(s) that could definitely calculate into SACs strength/rank.

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/article236735393.html

"Sac State trailed 16-10 late in the half when Thomson was crushed on a blind-side blitz. He sat on the turf for several moments to collect himself as coach Troy Taylor and two trainers comforted him.

The third-year starter was able to walk off the field on his own power, and Thomson slowly walked to the locker room, done in by a sore neck and back.


Thomson was taken to a hospital for observation, though his condition does not appear to be serious."

I believe the score was 23-10 when Thomson was crushed.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Anyone know the extent of the injury to Thomson or if/when he's expected back? That could say much about where SAC lands in the playoffs. Looking at the different rankings, I like to see SAC ahead of UM despite this last weekend's results. After all, SAC handed UM a pretty solid L. I guess if Thomson is going to miss game(s) that could definitely calculate into SACs strength/rank.

https://www.sacbee.com/sports/article236735393.html

"Sac State trailed 16-10 late in the half when Thomson was crushed on a blind-side blitz. He sat on the turf for several moments to collect himself as coach Troy Taylor and two trainers comforted him.

The third-year starter was able to walk off the field on his own power, and Thomson slowly walked to the locker room, done in by a sore neck and back.


Thomson was taken to a hospital for observation, though his condition does not appear to be serious."

I believe the score was 23-10 when Thomson was crushed.

That is true. Kind of hurts the credibility of the article.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Conference standings after Week 11

WSU 6-0 (8-0 vs FCS)
UM 5-1 (8-1 vs FCS)
Sac 5-1 (6-1 vs FCS)
MSU 4-2 (7-2 vs FCS)
EWU 4-2 (4-4 vs FCS)
UCD 3-3 (5-4 vs FCS)
PSU 3-4 (3-4 vs FCS)
UI 2-4 (3-4 vs FCS)
NAU 2-4 (3-5 vs FCS)
UNC 2-4 (2-6 vs FCS)
ISU 2-5 (2-6 vs FCS)
CP 1-5 (2-6 vs FCS)
SUU 1-5 (2-7 vs FCS)

I think 8 FCS/FBS wins guarantees a playoff bid. The conference has no FBS wins, with one FBS game remaining (ISU @ BYU). I think 7 FCS/FBS wins puts a team on the bubble.

UM - 8 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - WSU, @MSU
WSU - 8 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - @UM, ISU
MSU - 7 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - @UCD, UM
Sac - 6 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - @UI, UCD
UCD - 5 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - MSU, @Sac
EWU - 4 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - @CP, PSU
NAU - 3 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - @SUU, UI
PSU - 3 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - UNC, @EWU
UI - 3 FCS win. 2 FCS games remaining - Sac, @NAU
ISU - 2 FCS wins. 2 FCS/FBS games remaining - @BYU, @WSU
UNC - 2 FCS win. 2 FCS games remaining - @PSU, CP
CP - 2 FCS wins. 2 FCS games remaining - EWU, @UNC
SUU - 2 FCS win. 2 FCS games remaining - NAU, UND



To get to 8/7 FCS/FBS wins:
UM At 8 Wins/At 7 Wins
WSU At 8 Wins/At 7 Wins

MSU needs to go 1-1/At 7 Wins

Sac needs to go 2-0/1-1

UCD cannot get 8 wins/2-0

NAU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
PSU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
EWU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UI cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
ISU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
CP cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
SUU cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins
UNC cannot get 8 wins/cannot get 7 wins

 

[SWeberCat02]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-playoff-predictions-jmu-ndsu-11-bzbz

2019 FCS Playoff Predictions: Week 11 - Who's In, Who's Out As Selection Sunday Nears?

What does the playoff field look like if the season ended today?

3/3 Weber
4/5 UNI
5/4 Sac St
6/6 UM
Near-seed-2/Near-seed-2 MSU
1st 3 out/1st 3 out UND
1st 3 out/- UC Davis

 

[SWWeatherCat]

Brian's Thoughts:

Seeds: ... Remember that Weber State has beaten UNI and Sacramento State, Sacramento State defeated Montana and UNI knocked off Illinois State. That's the basis of my ordering behind NDSU and JMU, who are rock-solid No. 1 and No. 2 (though that could change in two weeks if Weber State is 10-0 vs. FCS with wins over UNI, Sac. St. and Montana.

How much sweeter would knocking off the Griz in Missoula be if it led to leapfrogging JMU? If this game isn't big enough! Would a Weber loss at UM knock them out of the top 4? Better not chance it and just WIN!

 

[WILDCAT]

Brian's Thoughts:

Seeds: ... Remember that Weber State has beaten UNI and Sacramento State, Sacramento State defeated Montana and UNI knocked off Illinois State. That's the basis of my ordering behind NDSU and JMU, who are rock-solid No. 1 and No. 2 (though that could change in two weeks if Weber State is 10-0 vs. FCS with wins over UNI, Sac. St. and Montana.

How much sweeter would knocking off the Griz in Missoula be if it led to leapfrogging JMU? If this game isn't big enough! Would a Weber loss at UM knock them out of the top 4? Better not chance it and just WIN!

I think it depends on if Weber loses how bad it is. Close and we get at least the 4. Lose big and we are probably 5th or 6th seed

 

[SWeberCat02]

With a win Saturday I think Weber wraps up a Seed. But it's hard to see them moving any higher than the 5th or 6th seed. NDSU, JMU, and SDSU are all big favorites in their games. Even if UM loses at MSU, they still might not drop below Weber due to their recent win over the Wildcats. Although Weber would have a real argument in that scenario as Weber would be conference champions and UM would finish 2nd. Sac would fall below Weber if they lose but I don't see them losing to UCD at home. Looks like Weber is likely locked into the 6th Seed, with a possible 5th Seed if UM loses.

 

[the dan]

I’ll be a little salty if we drop to 6. Our only loss was on the road to the #4 team. I don’t think we should drop below Sac. Weber has home wins vs #9 and #22 plus road wins at #6 and #22.

Here’s how I see it:

1. NDSU
2. James Madison
3. Montana
4. Weber
5. Sac State
6. SDSU
7. Illinois State
8. Take your pick

 

[WSUWildcat]

With a win Saturday I think Weber wraps up a Seed. But it's hard to see them moving any higher than the 5th or 6th seed. NDSU, JMU, and SDSU are all big favorites in their games. Even if UM loses at MSU, they still might not drop below Weber due to their recent win over the Wildcats. Although Weber would have a real argument in that scenario as Weber would be conference champions and UM would finish 2nd. Sac would fall below Weber if they lose but I don't see them losing to UCD at home. Looks like Weber is likely locked into the 6th Seed, with a possible 5th Seed if UM loses.

Montana finishes the conference in fourth with a loss.

 

[SWeberCat02]

With a win Saturday I think Weber wraps up a Seed. But it's hard to see them moving any higher than the 5th or 6th seed. NDSU, JMU, and SDSU are all big favorites in their games. Even if UM loses at MSU, they still might not drop below Weber due to their recent win over the Wildcats. Although Weber would have a real argument in that scenario as Weber would be conference champions and UM would finish 2nd. Sac would fall below Weber if they lose but I don't see them losing to UCD at home. Looks like Weber is likely locked into the 6th Seed, with a possible 5th Seed if UM loses.

Montana finishes the conference in fourth with a loss.

Technically tied for 3rd.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Here's the tiebreaker for the Auto Bid:

IF UM, SAC, and WSU are tied at 7-1: UM gets auto bid
IF UM and WSU are tied at 7-1: UM gets the auto bid
IF SAC and WSU are tied at 7-1: WSU gets the auto bid
IF UM and SAC are tied at 7-1: SAC gets auto bid
IF EWU, UM, MSU, SAC, and WSU are tied at 6-2: SAC gets auto bid
IF UM, MSU, SAC, and WSU MSU are 6-2: SAC gets auto bid

 

[SWeberCat02]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-stake-montana-montana-state-bzbz

FCS: What's At Stake For No. 3 Montana At No. 8 Montana State?

MONTANA WINS

The Grizzlies are 5-point road favorites. And for good reason as they looked scary good in a beat-down of then-No. 3 Weber State last week. Really, though, any score simulations or betting odds can be thrown out the window in a game like this.

This one can go either way. But let's say Montana wins...

The Griz are likely going to be a Top 4 playoff seed with a 10-1 record against the FCS.

The team they will be fighting with for the No. 3 seed is Sacramento State, assuming the Hornets beat UC Davis. Sac State did hand Montana its only loss (49-22). Sac State would finish 8-1 against the FCS with the one loss coming to Weber State (36-17), a team Montana beat 35-16. Sac State also owns a win against Montana State.

Head-to-head wins are a big deal for the playoff committee. But so are overall resumes. Montana would have two more Division 1 wins because of Sac State scheduling two FBS opponents and 1 non-counter opponent (Southern Oregon). It's tough to determine how the committee will weigh these two resumes. And there may not be much of a difference between the No. 3 and 4 seeds anyway because road trips to NDSU or JMU in the semifinals will not be easy.

Montana State would likely play in the first round.

The Bobcats are unlikely to be a seed with an 8-3 record against the FCS. They simply don't have a great win on their resume outside of SEMO, who will be another first-round team.

But it's not impossible for MSU to be a seed.

There are scenarios where an 8-3 against the FCS Montana State team could be a seed. The Bobcats would have to hope Illinois State (currently 8-2 against the FCS) loses to YSU. Which could happen. They have to hope Wofford (currently 7-2 against the FCS) loses to The Citadel. That could happen. And a Villanova (currently 8-3 against the FCS) loss to Delaware would help as well. This could happen, but isn't as likely as the other two. There's also the chance of the winner of Thursday's Southland Conference game between Southeastern Louisiana and Nicholls (both 7-2 vs. the FCS) could get the No. 8 seed in this scenario.

It's not impossible for the Bobcats to get a No. 8 seed with a loss. It would just take some upsets around the country for it to happen.

MONTANA STATE WINS

The Bobcats have won the last three Brawl of the Wild games. They are playing their best football all season and are on a three-game winning streak.

So let's say Montana State wins...

The Bobcats are going to be a playoff seed with a 9-2 record against the FCS.

Where would they be seeded? Probably in the 6-7 range. NDSU and JMU are No. 1 and 2, assuming they win Saturday. The Bobcats lost to Sac State, and would be seeded behind the Hornets assuming they beat UC Davis. And they would probably be seeded behind Weber State as well if the Wildcats beat Idaho State to finish 9-1 against the FCS with that one loss coming to Montana. MSU's loss to UND would also probably drop them a seed lower than South Dakota State as the Jacks would finish 9-2 against the FCS with a win Saturday at South Dakota and their two losses coming against NDSU and Illinois State, another seeded team if they defeat Youngstown State.

My guess would be a No. 6 seed for MSU in this scenario.

Montana still has an OK chance to be seeded.

It'd be really hard not to seed the Griz with a 9-2 record against the FCS, including a win against Weber State, who should be a seed as well. But one would imagine the Griz will be seeded behind MSU in this scenario.

So the question is would the playoff committee actually seed four teams from one conference? Nothing in their criteria says they can't. They can seed as many teams from one conference as they want. The committee, made up of ADs from each conference that participates in the playoffs, actually giving one conference that much love is questionable, though.

So who gets the bump?

You have to seed Montana State if it wins Saturday. Assuming Sac State and Weber State win, they both would finish with just one FCS loss. It'd be very hard to not to seed those two. Sac State beat Montana and Montana State. But Weber State beat Sac State. BUT ... Montana beat Weber State.

Illinois State, who saw their starting QB suffer a season-ending knee injury last week, losing at YSU on Saturday would drop the Redbirds from being a seed and would certainly help the Big Sky's chances at four seeds. No teams outside the Big Sky, CAA and MVFC have a great argument for a seed, although we could see Wofford, SE Louisiana or Nicholls (who I mentioned their scenarios above) in the Top 8. And there isn't a great No. 2 CAA team with a strong case for a seed. It could maybe be Villanova.

If MSU beats Montana, and Sac State and Weber handle business, along with Illinois State losing in a tough road trip to YSU, something tells me we're going to see four Big Sky seeds. Not only because those four would deserve it, but because there aren't going to be a whole lot of seed-able resumes out there.

If MSU beats Montana, Illinois State wins to secure a seed and the committee doesn't want to seed four Big Sky teams, good luck trying to figure out who gets the short end of the stick between MSU, Montana, Weber State and Sac State.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Here is the Committee's first top 10 rankings from Nov 6, what each team has done since, and what each team has left


1.North Dakota State (9-0) - beat 1-8 W Illinois at home 57-21; beat 4-6 South Dakota at home 49-14; @ 7-4 S Illinois.
2.James Madison (8-1) - beat 5-3 New Hampshire at home 54-16; beat 5-5 Richmond at home 48-6; @ 2-9 Rhode Island.
3.Weber State (7-2) - beat 5-3 North Dakota 30-27; lost @ 8-2 Montana 16-35; 3-8 Idaho St.
4.South Dakota State (7-2) - lost to 6-3 Illinois St 18-27; beat 7-3 N Iowa 38-7; @ 4-7 S Dakota.
5.Sacramento State (6-3) - won @ 4-5 N Arizona 38-34; won @ 4-6 Idaho 31-7; 5-6 UC Davis.
6.UNI (6-3) - beat 3-6 Indiana St 17-9; lost @ 7-3 S Dakota St 7-38; 1-10 W Illinois.
7.Central Arkansas (7-2) - lost to 5-3 SE Louisiana 0-34; beat 2-8 SF Austin 30-7; @ 5-6 Incarnate Word.
8.Montana (7-2) - beat 4-5 Idaho 42-17; beat 8-2 Weber St 35-16; @ 8-3 Montana St.
9.Furman (6-3) - beat 4-5 VMI 60-21; lost @ 6-2 Wofford 7-24; @ 6-5 The Citadel.
10.New Hampshire (5-3) - lost @ 8-1 JMU 16-54; lost @ 6-4 Albany 17-24; 6-5 Maine.

 

[SWeberCat02]

Here is the Committee's first top 10 rankings from Nov 6, what each team has done since, and what each team has left


1.North Dakota State (9-0) - beat 1-8 W Illinois at home 57-21; beat 4-6 South Dakota at home 49-14; @ 7-4 S Illinois.
2.James Madison (8-1) - beat 5-3 New Hampshire at home 54-16; beat 5-5 Richmond at home 48-6; @ 2-9 Rhode Island.
3.Weber State (7-2) - beat 5-3 North Dakota 30-27; lost @ 8-2 Montana 16-35; 3-8 Idaho St.
4.South Dakota State (7-2) - lost to 6-3 Illinois St 18-27; beat 7-3 N Iowa 38-7; @ 4-7 S Dakota.
5.Sacramento State (6-3) - won @ 4-5 N Arizona 38-34; won @ 4-6 Idaho 31-7; 5-6 UC Davis.
6.UNI (6-3) - beat 3-6 Indiana St 17-9; lost @ 7-3 S Dakota St 7-38; 1-10 W Illinois.
7.Central Arkansas (7-2) - lost to 5-3 SE Louisiana 0-34; beat 2-8 SF Austin 30-7; @ 5-6 Incarnate Word.
8.Montana (7-2) - beat 4-5 Idaho 42-17; beat 8-2 Weber St 35-16; @ 8-3 Montana St.
9.Furman (6-3) - beat 4-5 VMI 60-21; lost @ 6-2 Wofford 7-24; @ 6-5 The Citadel.
10.New Hampshire (5-3) - lost @ 8-1 JMU 16-54; lost @ 6-4 Albany 17-24; 6-5 Maine.

Unless there are upsets this Saturday, I think we have 7 of the 8 seeds already. NDSU, JMU, WSU, SDSU, Sac St, UNI, and UM. NDSU and JMU will be 1 and 2. The order of the next 5 likely to be partially determined by the UM/MSU game. Best chance at an upset looks like MSU over UM. In that scenario I think UM still gets a seed AND it's very possible MSU gets the last seed as well. But would the committee give 4 of the 8 seeds to one conference?

 

[Kadeezy]

Here is the Committee's first top 10 rankings from Nov 6, what each team has done since, and what each team has left


1.North Dakota State (9-0) - beat 1-8 W Illinois at home 57-21; beat 4-6 South Dakota at home 49-14; @ 7-4 S Illinois.
2.James Madison (8-1) - beat 5-3 New Hampshire at home 54-16; beat 5-5 Richmond at home 48-6; @ 2-9 Rhode Island.
3.Weber State (7-2) - beat 5-3 North Dakota 30-27; lost @ 8-2 Montana 16-35; 3-8 Idaho St.
4.South Dakota State (7-2) - lost to 6-3 Illinois St 18-27; beat 7-3 N Iowa 38-7; @ 4-7 S Dakota.
5.Sacramento State (6-3) - won @ 4-5 N Arizona 38-34; won @ 4-6 Idaho 31-7; 5-6 UC Davis.
6.UNI (6-3) - beat 3-6 Indiana St 17-9; lost @ 7-3 S Dakota St 7-38; 1-10 W Illinois.
7.Central Arkansas (7-2) - lost to 5-3 SE Louisiana 0-34; beat 2-8 SF Austin 30-7; @ 5-6 Incarnate Word.
8.Montana (7-2) - beat 4-5 Idaho 42-17; beat 8-2 Weber St 35-16; @ 8-3 Montana St.
9.Furman (6-3) - beat 4-5 VMI 60-21; lost @ 6-2 Wofford 7-24; @ 6-5 The Citadel.
10.New Hampshire (5-3) - lost @ 8-1 JMU 16-54; lost @ 6-4 Albany 17-24; 6-5 Maine.

Unless there are upsets this Saturday, I think we have 7 of the 8 seeds already. NDSU, JMU, WSU, SDSU, Sac St, UNI, and UM. NDSU and JMU will be 1 and 2. The order of the next 5 likely to be partially determined by the UM/MSU game. Best chance at an upset looks like MSU over UM. In that scenario I think UM still gets a seed AND it's very possible MSU gets the last seed as well. But would the committee give 4 of the 8 seeds to one conference?

I'll take MSU to upset UM - here's my biased 8 seeded teams:

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Sac State
4. Montana
5. Weber
6. SDSU
7. UNI
8. MSU

I don't think the committee will actually seed four BSC teams, but they'll have to consider it if MSU beats UM.

Flip flop UM and SAC if UM wins the Brawl. Drop Sac to 8 if they lose to UC Davis, and move Weber to #4.

How hilarious would it be if UM, Weber, and Sac lost, and EWU won to create 4-way champs -then EWU doesn't even make the playoff field... LOL

 

[Kadeezy]

Just saw this on FCS twitter regarding the BSC AQ - My goodness...

AQ tiebreakers from Big Sky:
If UM, SAC, and WSU are tied at 7-1: UM gets auto bid
If UM and WSU are tied at 7-1: UM
If SAC and WSU are tied at 7-1: WSU
If UM and SAC are tied at 7-1: SAC
If EWU, UM, MSU, SAC & WSU are tied at 6-2: SAC
If UM, MSU, SAC & WSU are tied at 6-2: SAC