Playoff scenarios, not a good weekend for the Big Sky

[Hambone]

Well, with Cal Poly and Montana losing their games this weekend I decided I would take a look at possible playoff scenarios for the remaining Big Sky teams who are still eligible to make it.

1. North Dakota - They've finished their regular season matchups and have earned a share of the conference title. They're also a lock for the playoffs with a 9-2 overall record, 8-0 in Big Sky play. The only thing remaining is whether they will have to share the conference title with EWU. Some will say that they've had an easy path to the Big Sky Championship, but they still had to beat the teams on their schedule. And with wins against Cal Poly, Weber State, and NAU there can be little doubt that they're a very good team. With an opening season loss to a 5 win Stony Brook squad, they probably won't get seeded in the top 5. Their other loss was to FBS Bowling Green, 26-27, but that doesn't look like a "good" loss now. Currently ranked at #10 by the playoff committee, they could still sneak into the top 6-8, depending on what happens with the teams ahead of them in the standings.

2. EWU - Also a lock for the playoffs with 9 total wins and a game left to play at PSU for a share of the Big Sky title on the line. A win would put us at 10-1 overall, and almost a certain lock for a top 4 seed. It will be hard for the playoff selection committee to ignore a win over an 8 win WSU, so a top 2 seed is definitely on the table if we win out. It will all come down to whether this EWU team can mentally prepare to put away an mediocre PSU squad on Friday.

3. Weber State - The surprise team of the conference this year, Weber St. finds themselves with 6 wins and a game to play at Idaho St. in Pocatello to finish out the year. The Wildcats should have no problem beating the hapless Bengals and should finish with a 7-4 record. The main problem I see for Weber is that they don't really have many quality wins. This weekend's win over Cal Poly will help, but it's anyone's guess whether it will be enough in the eyes of the committee.

4. Cal Poly - What happened to the Mustangs? After what looked to be a promising start, they've dropped their past two games and sit at 6-4. A win against UNC at home would put them at 7-4 and on the bubble. They probably have a good shot to make the playoffs in this scenario due to their 38-31 win over S. Dakota St. early in the season, but as Montana found out, beating the Bears next weekend is no longer a given.

5. Northern Colorado - Another surprise team in the Big Sky this season, the Bears find themselves at 6 wins with a game at Cal Poly left to play. Their only bad loss was against UC Davis on the road, but that almost seems inexcusable considering how bad the Aggies are this year. The winner of the CP/UNC game could end up being the 3rd team in from the Big Sky Conference. The loser is most definitely out of the equation.

6. Montana - The last of the bubble teams, Montana (6-4) is actually behind NAU and SUU in the conference standings. A win against Montana St. would give them a 7-4 finish, but with a 4-4 conference record I just don't see the Griz as being a playoff selection this season. Better luck next year.

Probably Out: NAU (5-5), SUU (5-5). The selection committee isn't going to take a 6-5 team that doesn't have any FBS win or other signature victories.

Definitely Out: PSU, Sac State, MSU, ISU, and UC Davis. The best any of these teams could finish is 4-7.

Prediction:

EWU wins out, grabs the autobid and the #2 seed.

UND grabs the #7 seed and enjoys a first round game at home.

Weber State beats ISU and gets selected as the third team from the Big Sky. Then gets to travel someplace like Fargo or Cheney in the second round.

Cal Poly beats UNC, is the fourth team selected, and gets to travel to San Diego. Will get to travel to Cheney or Fargo in the second round.

 

[ewueagfan]

The bubble is weak this year so CP, Weber, and UNC all have a good shot to make the cut if they win on Saturday.

 

[Rjones61]

Good predictions. I think that I agree. The playoff team pool is pretty shallow this year, without many teams pulling solid records. I don't think the Big Sky will only have two teams with so few FCS teams to choose from this year.

 

[EWURanger]

Good analysis. This will definitely be an interesting closing weekend in the Big Sky. I think a 7-4 Cal Poly definitely makes it in. A 7-4 WSU is kind of a weak bubble team, but they do have a shot. UNC could be interesting. At 7-4 and only one "bad" loss, they could be in with a win over a pretty good Cal Poly team.

I think a 7-4 Montana is out, regardless of what happens.

 

[Rjones61]

I think a 7-4 Montana is out, regardless of what happens.

The only thing that can get Montana in is their name and $. If Montana gets in, it's pretty much proof of some form of tampering/laziness in the selection committee. The Griz resume is pathetic.

 

[LDopaPDX]

I think a 7-4 Montana is out, regardless of what happens.

The only thing that can get Montana in is their name and $. If Montana gets in, it's pretty much proof of some form of tampering/laziness in the selection committee. The Griz resume is pathetic.

Four FCS losses. That's going to be their problem. If they had an FBS loss on the resume, you could write it off as an "excusable" loss. 7-4 on a light record is only going to get it done if there are no other 7-4 teams to choose from.

 

[Seattle Eagle]

I think a 7-4 Montana would have a better chance than a 7-4 UNC because one of the Bear's wins is a DII. That being said, if Weber and Cal Poly win, I don't see a 5th Big Sky team getting in meaning Montana would be out.

The best chance the Big Sky has to get 4 teams in would be for CP and Weber to win this weekend.

 

[EWURanger]

Good catch on UNC. 7-4 with a Division II win probably isn't going to cut the mustard.

 

[LDopaPDX]

Good catch on UNC. 7-4 with a Division II win probably isn't going to cut the mustard.

It might be true, but I don't think it's a D-II game that kills them. Their overall strength of schedule is on par with Montana, so the head to head win likely trumps a 7-4 Montana. The great D-II 'no counter" has always been just a rumor, but the committee clarified a couple of years ago and said head-to-head matchup are the first determinant and strength of schedule is the second. NoCo had a D-II win, but also a loss to Colorado State.

 

[EWURanger]

Good catch on UNC. 7-4 with a Division II win probably isn't going to cut the mustard.

It might be true, but I don't think it's a D-II game that kills them. Their overall strength of schedule is on par with Montana, so the head to head win likely trumps a 7-4 Montana. The great D-II 'no counter" has always been just a rumor, but the committee clarified a couple of years ago and said head-to-head matchup are the first determinant and strength of schedule is the second. NoCo had a D-II win, but also a loss to Colorado State.

Yeah, I know 7 wins isn't a hard and fast rule, but there's really only been one instance where the committee has taken a 6 win team. I believe it was W. Illinois last year, who had an FBS win. UNC could go either way depending on the rest of the bubble, but I'd be willing to bet there will be a bunch of 7-4 teams with better resumes.

I think Seattle Eagle in right - the best shot the Big Sky has to get four teams in is if CP and Weber St. win their games. UNC and Montana are shaky bubble teams.

 

[Hambone]

I think a 7-4 Montana would have a better chance than a 7-4 UNC because one of the Bear's wins is a DII. That being said, if Weber and Cal Poly win, I don't see a 5th Big Sky team getting in meaning Montana would be out.

The best chance the Big Sky has to get 4 teams in would be for CP and Weber to win this weekend.

Dang, I thought I looked at their schedule more closely. Completely missed their win over Rocky Mountain.

 

[EdubU10]

I know it's the Bobcats but who's to say that's a guaranteed win for the Griz this weekend?

 

[EWURanger]

I know it's the Bobcats but who's to say that's a guaranteed win for the Griz this weekend?

Oh, it definitely isn't. I knew Montana would have a hard time with UNC with how much da Bears have improved.

 

[clawman1]

I know it's the Bobcats but who's to say that's a guaranteed win for the Griz this weekend?

Yes, now that the Cats have won a conference game they may be playing with new found confidence.

 

[EdubU10]

I know it's the Bobcats but who's to say that's a guaranteed win for the Griz this weekend?

Yes, now that the Cats have won a conference game they may be playing with new found confidence.

They're on a heater now :lol: :lol:

 

[LDopaPDX]

I certainly hope and expect we win this Friday. That means we probably get a 2 seed. I'd like to see North Dakota get a 7 seed so we can play them in the quarters.

With that said, most bracket scenarios show regionalized games. The NCAA said they are going to stop regionalization. I'd like to see Cal Poly get in as I've always been a fan of their program. Tim Walsh is a genuine good guy. Howveer, I'm not a fan of their crappy video production. They need to get that sorted out.

 

[ewueagle2010]

I'm not sure I'd wish to play UND in the 2nd round quarterfinals. Yes, I think EWU is better, but UND has THE best recipe for bad weather playoff games. A stud running back and a great D. My biggest fear is the weather ends up bouncing EWU from the playoffs earlier than Frisco.

 

[marceagfan5]

My take is if we win, we should lock down the 2 seed. I still think NDSU should be the 1 seed, but the committee loves JSU. Hopefully they don't jump us with NDSU in the final week and move us to the 3.

As far as other Big Sky schools, UND is obviously a lock. I think they have a shot at the 7 or 8 seed. SDSU has a tough game this weekend and either Sam Houston or Cent Ark are going to lose so UND is going to move up. If we are the 2 seed, I can see the committee putting UND as the 7 because thats what they do.

If Cal Poly wins, they should be in. They have a win over Montana and won AT SDSU. They'd have 7 D1 wins and one of their losses was FBS. They should be in.

Weber would be an interesting pick to make it as well. They should win Sat and would finish at 7-4. If they wouldn't have $hit the bed against South Dakota, they'd be a lock...they also have an FBS loss and would have 7 D1 wins. No real quality wins though...

Montana is the interesting one. They should win Sat and get to 7 wins, but they won't have a quality win on the schedule. I do think they are in at 7-4 based on name recognition and $ alone. But they could literally finish 8th in the conference and still make the playoffs, which is crazy....

My thoughts are EWU 2 seed, UND 7 seed, Cal Poly will make it and get Youngstown or SDSU in the first round, Griz will make it and get a layup with San Diego...

 

[LDopaPDX]

My take is if we win, we should lock down the 2 seed. I still think NDSU should be the 1 seed, but the committee loves JSU. Hopefully they don't jump us with NDSU in the final week and move us to the 3.

As far as other Big Sky schools, UND is obviously a lock. I think they have a shot at the 7 or 8 seed. SDSU has a tough game this weekend and either Sam Houston or Cent Ark are going to lose so UND is going to move up. If we are the 2 seed, I can see the committee putting UND as the 7 because thats what they do.

If Cal Poly wins, they should be in. They have a win over Montana and won AT SDSU. They'd have 7 D1 wins and one of their losses was FBS. They should be in.

Weber would be an interesting pick to make it as well. They should win Sat and would finish at 7-4. If they wouldn't have $hit the bed against South Dakota, they'd be a lock...they also have an FBS loss and would have 7 D1 wins. No real quality wins though...

Montana is the interesting one. They should win Sat and get to 7 wins, but they won't have a quality win on the schedule. I do think they are in at 7-4 based on name recognition and $ alone. But they could literally finish 8th in the conference and still make the playoffs, which is crazy....

My thoughts are EWU 2 seed, UND 7 seed, Cal Poly will make it and get Youngstown or SDSU in the first round, Griz will make it and get a layup with San Diego...

Interesting thoughts. I think Cal Poly is a virtual lock at 7-4 based on beating Montana and South Dakota State and having a competitive FBS loss. They also beat probable playoff participant San Diego-- not a win of any substance, but if they are a conference champion, it'll mean something.

If Weber wins, and they absolutely will, they'd be 7-4 and would be the fourth- and likely last- Big Sky team in. I don't see the committee taking more than four BSC teams.

If Northern Colorado beats Cal Poly, I think they'd be the next team in. This is another team without much of a resume, but they have a chance to make it based on a head to head win against the Griz and a somewhat decent win against Cal Poly (again, assuming they can win that game on the road--- unlikely IMO).

Montana would need an absolute train-wreck to make it in. They have four FCS losses, and their biggest wins would be UNI and Southern Utah. I don't think the Griz money machine can by them in. They'd help their cause by spanking Montana State, but with just two wins out of their last 5 games, it'll take a lot of craziness in front of them to clear a path.

IF the craziness transpires, I don't see any shot of Montana getting a gimme game against San Diego. I could see Weber potentially getting that game, but more than likely they'd get served up to a Midwest or Southland team. You couldn't possibly give the Griz what would appear to be the easiest path to the second round.

 

[eaglesfootball]

I don't think montana makes it in nor should they. if they do make it in, they will embarrass the big sky by going on the road and getting beat down by some mvfc team. no thanks.