Well, with Cal Poly and Montana losing their games this weekend I decided I would take a look at possible playoff scenarios for the remaining Big Sky teams who are still eligible to make it.
1. North Dakota - They've finished their regular season matchups and have earned a share of the conference title. They're also a lock for the playoffs with a 9-2 overall record, 8-0 in Big Sky play. The only thing remaining is whether they will have to share the conference title with EWU. Some will say that they've had an easy path to the Big Sky Championship, but they still had to beat the teams on their schedule. And with wins against Cal Poly, Weber State, and NAU there can be little doubt that they're a very good team. With an opening season loss to a 5 win Stony Brook squad, they probably won't get seeded in the top 5. Their other loss was to FBS Bowling Green, 26-27, but that doesn't look like a "good" loss now. Currently ranked at #10 by the playoff committee, they could still sneak into the top 6-8, depending on what happens with the teams ahead of them in the standings.
2. EWU - Also a lock for the playoffs with 9 total wins and a game left to play at PSU for a share of the Big Sky title on the line. A win would put us at 10-1 overall, and almost a certain lock for a top 4 seed. It will be hard for the playoff selection committee to ignore a win over an 8 win WSU, so a top 2 seed is definitely on the table if we win out. It will all come down to whether this EWU team can mentally prepare to put away an mediocre PSU squad on Friday.
3. Weber State - The surprise team of the conference this year, Weber St. finds themselves with 6 wins and a game to play at Idaho St. in Pocatello to finish out the year. The Wildcats should have no problem beating the hapless Bengals and should finish with a 7-4 record. The main problem I see for Weber is that they don't really have many quality wins. This weekend's win over Cal Poly will help, but it's anyone's guess whether it will be enough in the eyes of the committee.
4. Cal Poly - What happened to the Mustangs? After what looked to be a promising start, they've dropped their past two games and sit at 6-4. A win against UNC at home would put them at 7-4 and on the bubble. They probably have a good shot to make the playoffs in this scenario due to their 38-31 win over S. Dakota St. early in the season, but as Montana found out, beating the Bears next weekend is no longer a given.
5. Northern Colorado - Another surprise team in the Big Sky this season, the Bears find themselves at 6 wins with a game at Cal Poly left to play. Their only bad loss was against UC Davis on the road, but that almost seems inexcusable considering how bad the Aggies are this year. The winner of the CP/UNC game could end up being the 3rd team in from the Big Sky Conference. The loser is most definitely out of the equation.
6. Montana - The last of the bubble teams, Montana (6-4) is actually behind NAU and SUU in the conference standings. A win against Montana St. would give them a 7-4 finish, but with a 4-4 conference record I just don't see the Griz as being a playoff selection this season. Better luck next year.
Probably Out: NAU (5-5), SUU (5-5). The selection committee isn't going to take a 6-5 team that doesn't have any FBS win or other signature victories.
Definitely Out: PSU, Sac State, MSU, ISU, and UC Davis. The best any of these teams could finish is 4-7.
Prediction:
EWU wins out, grabs the autobid and the #2 seed.
UND grabs the #7 seed and enjoys a first round game at home.
Weber State beats ISU and gets selected as the third team from the Big Sky. Then gets to travel someplace like Fargo or Cheney in the second round.
Cal Poly beats UNC, is the fourth team selected, and gets to travel to San Diego. Will get to travel to Cheney or Fargo in the second round.
