Playoffs?

[marceagfan5]

After a brutal game, I figured I’d ask the question, can we make the playoffs at 7-4? Right now we are set to finish fourth in the conference, and we really don’t have a quality win yet unless Montana wins out…

7-4 should get a big sky team in every year, but we haven’t beaten anybody worth a crap, so not sure if we get in at 7-4 although I think the odds are in our favor. Thoughts?

As far as the game today, huge disappointment, especially playing at home against a top 20 team coming off a bye week. We tend to get dominated at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, we can’t stop anyone on third down, and when we just need one or 2 yards we never seem to get it, frustrating! We also don’t have that big time receiver, where we can just throw it up and they will go get it, and we really need that this year. We ask Gage to do everything, and sometimes that’s really tough.

Not sure where we go from here this year, I thought we would be much better, we really only lost three receivers on offense, And not a ton on defense, A defense that was dominant to end last year. We need to win our last two games, good thing it’s against two crappy teams, hopefully we can gain some confidence get the ball rolling and sneak into the playoffs…

 

[Obzerver]

A wise man once said; " I think if we really blow out our last two opponents then we might have a good shot at making it in based on late season performance and brand name recognition".

Damn straight we'll make the playoffs. We take the handcuffs off GG and our "D" and play with reckless abandon and we blow out North Dakota and PSU with impressive numbers. I feel we are playing stiff and too scripted and a little scared. Run GG...ain't that hard..coaches trying to hard..nothing to lose so play like it...coaches stay outta the players way as we have the talent. Missing those wr's hurt but GG made plays when he was on the run to them...he's effective when he's not a pocket passer..don't make him something he ain't.

It's there so take it.

 

[kalm]

The bubble might end up being fairly strong with Kennesaw beating MSU yesterday. The Big South has received an at-large before and it would be tough for the committee to pass up a 9-2 Monmouth or Kennesaw for 7-4 team.

Then there's the awful, miserable, undeserving SLC where if things go according to script, you'll have UCA 10-1, SHSU 10-1, McNeese 9-2, and Nichols 9-2. The SLC strength of schedule across the board is roughly the same as the Big South (not good) and if there's a one game difference in record that might be enough but I'd be surprised if it is between a 7-4 anf 9-2.

There's three of your at-large bids.

The CAA has 3 virtual locks between JMU, Elon, and SBU. Delaware is favored in it's last two against Albany and Nova which would make them 8-3. UNH finishes with Elon and Albany. The CAA should get 3 at-larges and perhaps even 4. Root against UNH and UD.

The Valley front runners pretty much all play each other the next two weeks so it's difficult to prognosticate. WIU is almost a lock with remaining games against ISUb and SIU. SDSU is also almost a lock despite finishing against ISUr and USD. They could lose both, be 7-4 but with wins over NDSU and WIU. USD is similar, finishing NDSU and SDSU but with wins over BGU and WIU. UNI is in with assumed wins over ISUb and MSU. ISUr is at SDSU and hosts NDSU so they could finish 6-5 which still might get them in over a 7-4 team due to a quality win over USD and high SoS. The Valley should get 4 at-largest and maybe even 5. Root against ISUr.

In the Socon, 3-loss WCU still has a decent Mercer and UNC remaining. 3-loss Furman has a decent Citadel and Samford left. 3-loss Samford has ETSU and Furman. The Socon SoS isn't great and I see only one at-large for sure and perhaps a 2nd in 7-4 Samford based on wins over two playoff teams in Wofford and Kennesaw.

That's 11 at-larges likely spoken for, leaving 3 for the Big Sky.

Assuming Weber wins out and SUU goes at least 1-1 there's one of those 3. Montana wins out and they're in. Even at 7-4 NAU would still have a case over us with a similar SoS and better quality win against ISUr. The 3rd spot would be up for grabs between us, NAU, and believe it or not, SAC state. It seems like we should be fans of Sac State, fans of the Griz winning out or losing at most one more, and fans of NAU losing out.

Of course the committee doesn't base it off of conference affiliation but it's easier to dissect going conference by conference.

 

[LDopaPDX]

First things first, we need to beat UND. Then we need to beat Portland State. If that happens, I'd make us at about 90% chance of getting in. The fact is our strength of schedule will be very high. Even among Big Sky games, our schedule will look tougher than any other 7-4 team. The only bottom feeder we got served in conference play is Portland State... we didn't play Cal Poly, Idaho State, or Northern Colorado. The only team near the top we miss is NAU.

If the NCAA wants to tout strength of schedule as the deciding factor among teams with even records, there won't be more than one other 7-4 team looking better in that category than us. The big negative is we got routed in three of our four losses so far. I think the committee might be able to look the other way on Texas Tech and NDSU, but that beatdown we took from SUU is a glaring pock mark. It would make me feel a lot better if MSU can beat Montana in Bozeman, as we'd obviously get the nod over a 7-4 Montana team given a road win in head-to-head and far greater strength of schedule.

 

[kalm]

First things first, we need to beat UND. Then we need to beat Portland State. If that happens, I'd make us at about 90% chance of getting in. The fact is our strength of schedule will be very high. Even among Big Sky games, our schedule will look tougher than any other 7-4 team. The only bottom feeder we got served in conference play is Portland State... we didn't play Cal Poly, Idaho State, or Northern Colorado. The only team near the top we miss is NAU.

If the NCAA wants to tout strength of schedule as the deciding factor among teams with even records, there won't be more than one other 7-4 team looking better in that category than us. The big negative is we got routed in three of our four losses so far. I think the committee might be able to look the other way on Texas Tech and NDSU, but that beatdown we took from SUU is a glaring pock mark. It would make me feel a lot better if MSU can beat Montana in Bozeman, as we'd obviously get the nod over a 7-4 Montana team given a road win in head-to-head and far greater strength of schedule.

Quality wins are also valued. For example:

7-4 Samford would have wins over Wofford and Kennesaw

7-4 UNI -USD and SDSU

7-4 WIU - ISUr, UNI, NAU

7-4 SDSU - NDSU, WIU

Our SOS will take a hit the next two weeks and be comparable to the Valley teams above. There is still something like 30 teams who can reach 8 wins so we'll also be matching resumes with a few 9 win teams from the Big South and SLC.

 

[marceagfan5]

It would be to our benefit to have the bobcats beat the Griz, SUU to beat NAU, and Nichols to lose their last 2 road games...

I think our strength of schedule will help us, but our lack of quality wins will hurt us, as I know the committee looks for teams that have a chance to win some games in the playoffs for those that large spots

 

[EWURanger]

I don’t know what the GG and Calhoun suspensions were over, but talk about an inopportune time facing two must win games. For those of you wanting to see EB3, now’s your chance. Hopefully he has a good week of preparation. We absolutely must win this upcoming pair of games.

 

[lakesbison]

if NC A & T and Kennesaw St are in the playoffs... a 7-4 EWU team defintely should make it

 

[LDopaPDX]

Therein lies a major issue in the FCS. There are a lot of teams that literally play no one of importance and get a glamourous record. The difference between the top tier of the FCS and the bottom tier is likely greater than going from, say, Alabama to Idaho in the FBS. We went into Fordham- generally a pretty solid Patriot League team- and were miles better than they were. And we turned the ball over 5 times in that one.

The reality could just as easily be 7-4 teams get exempted from the playoffs and a move is made back to 16 or 20 teams. I can't say I'd be opposed to that as five playoffs games is an awful lot. But if 7-4 teams get in each year in this format, then you'd be hard pressed to find a better strength of schedule than ours. There will likely be at least one MVC team at 7-4 with better SOS, but where else would you find one? The MVC is head and shoulders the best conference this year... you could make an argument every other conference is actually in a down year. Take JMU out and the CAA is nothing special.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Therein lies a major issue in the FCS. There are a lot of teams that literally play no one of importance and get a glamourous record. The difference between the top tier of the FCS and the bottom tier is likely greater than going from, say, Alabama to Idaho in the FBS. We went into Fordham- generally a pretty solid Patriot League team- and were miles better than they were. And we turned the ball over 5 times in that one.

The reality could just as easily be 7-4 teams get exempted from the playoffs and a move is made back to 16 or 20 teams. I can't say I'd be opposed to that as five playoffs games is an awful lot. But if 7-4 teams get in each year in this format, then you'd be hard pressed to find a better strength of schedule than ours. There will likely be at least one MVC team at 7-4 with better SOS, but where else would you find one? The MVC is head and shoulders the best conference this year... you could make an argument every other conference is actually in a down year. Take JMU out and the CAA is nothing special.

Got to agree, only the MVC has reasonable depth as a conference this season, but we are 0 for Utah this year and haven't won a game against any of the better teams. Even at 7-4, the win's just don't stack up to well against a weaker conference 9-2; there is something to be said for showing up and winning the games you're supposed to with all the vagaries college teams face season in and out. Let the chips fall how they may at this point.

 

[Fify]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2J4hluXF3s

 

[clawman1]

The beginning of that clip seems very applicable to the Eagles. I chuckle every time I see this.
https://youtu.be/Qwq7BYOnDrM

 

[LDopaPDX]

So what helps us now? In our own conference, Southern Utah beating NAU and Montana State beating Montana would help us a lot. Southern Illinois beating Western Illinois helps. Elon and South Dakota each losing their last game would help. It's still on the bubble for us, although you'd have to suspect we're first choice among the four loss teams.

 

[marceagfan5]

Stole some of this from EGRIZ but here is how the top conferences shake out, every other conference should just get 1 bid unless the committee decides to also take the loser of Kennesaw State and Monmouth, who would be 9-2. Also, if NC A&T decides not to play in the celebration bowl (I doubt it). So for the sake of this argument, lets say the loser of Monmouth/K State is out and NC A&T is out. That leaves these teams trying to get in. 1 from each conference will get an auto bid, so that leaves 14 spots up for grabs...Teams with a "*" are certain to get in, 7 of those would be at large, basically leaving 7 sports up for grabs. Best case scenario for us is SUU beating NAU, MSU beating UM, NDSU beating ISU, and one of the 8-2 Southland teams losing. Furman and Samford play each other, so do New Hampshire and Delaware so that helps our case and W. Carolina should lose its 5th game to North Carolina...

I didn't list the 5 one bid conferences...

It will be an interesting Saturday next weekend...

1.) Southland

* Sam Houston St 9-1 (vs. Houston Baptist)
* Central Ark 9-1 (vs. Abilene Cristian)
Nicholls St 8-2 (at SE Louisiana)
McNeese St 8-2 (at Lamar)

2.) Southern

* Wofford 9-1 (at (FBS) S. Carolina)
Furman 7-3 ( at Samford)
Samford 7-3 (vs. Furman)
W. Carolina 7-4 (at (FBS) North Carolina)

3.) CAA

* James Madison 9-1 (at Elon)
* Elon 8-2 (vs James Madison)
* Stony Brook 8-2 (at Maine)
Delaware 7-3 (at Villanova)
New Hampshire 7-3 (at Albany)

4.) Missouri Valley

* ND State 9-1 (at Illinois St)
* SD State 8-2 (at S. Dakota)
* S. Dakota 7-3 (vs. SD State)
* W. Illinois 7-3 (vs. S. Illinois)
Illinois St. 6-4 (vs. ND State)
N. Iowa 6-4 (vs. Indiana St)

5.) Big Sky

* S. Utah 8-2 (vs. NAU)
* Weber 8-2 (vs. ISU)
Montana 7-3 (at msu)
NAU 7-3 (at S. Utah)
EWU 6-4 (vs. PSU)

 

[ewueagle2010]

All I know is if a 7-4 EWU team doesn't make the playoffs, then there is absolutely no point to scheduling a tough OOC slate anymore. A 6-2 conference record with losses to only the top 2 teams, plus losses to Texas Tech and NDSU is deserving of a spot, IMO.

Even more irritating, EWU beats Montana in Missoula, and if Montana beats Montana State, will have the same conference record as EWU. In that scenario, UM is likely a lock, while we're on the bubble because they played Valpo and Savannah St. Dumb, stupid dumb.

 

[LDopaPDX]

All I know is if a 7-4 EWU team doesn't make the playoffs, then there is absolutely no point to scheduling a tough OOC slate anymore. A 6-2 conference record with losses to only the top 2 teams, plus losses to Texas Tech and NDSU is deserving of a spot, IMO.

Even more irritating, EWU beats Montana in Missoula, and if Montana beats Montana State, will have the same conference record as EWU. In that scenario, UM is likely a lock, while we're on the bubble because they played Valpo and Savannah St. Dumb, stupid dumb.

I've been saying this forever. Playing extremely tough out of conference schedules is a detriment to the team. The playoff committee really only uses strength of schedule to measure teams with the same record. Ultimately, 8-3 is more attractive than 7-4. If we get snubbed at 7-4, it would be an indictment of our scheduling philosophy.

 

[marceagfan5]

All I know is if a 7-4 EWU team doesn't make the playoffs, then there is absolutely no point to scheduling a tough OOC slate anymore. A 6-2 conference record with losses to only the top 2 teams, plus losses to Texas Tech and NDSU is deserving of a spot, IMO.

Even more irritating, EWU beats Montana in Missoula, and if Montana beats Montana State, will have the same conference record as EWU. In that scenario, UM is likely a lock, while we're on the bubble because they played Valpo and Savannah St. Dumb, stupid dumb.

I've been saying this forever. Playing extremely tough out of conference schedules is a detriment to the team. The playoff committee really only uses strength of schedule to measure teams with the same record. Ultimately, 8-3 is more attractive than 7-4. If we get snubbed at 7-4, it would be an indictment of our scheduling philosophy.

Yep, we have been saying this for a few years now. We beat Montana, in Missoula, but if they finish 8-3 and us 7-4 (both 6-2 in conf) they are in and we may not be....all because they scheduled two cupcakes and we didn’t in non-conf...

 

[MLEagle]

All I know is if a 7-4 EWU team doesn't make the playoffs, then there is absolutely no point to scheduling a tough OOC slate anymore. A 6-2 conference record with losses to only the top 2 teams, plus losses to Texas Tech and NDSU is deserving of a spot, IMO.

Even more irritating, EWU beats Montana in Missoula, and if Montana beats Montana State, will have the same conference record as EWU. In that scenario, UM is likely a lock, while we're on the bubble because they played Valpo and Savannah St. Dumb, stupid dumb.

I've been saying this forever. Playing extremely tough out of conference schedules is a detriment to the team. The playoff committee really only uses strength of schedule to measure teams with the same record. Ultimately, 8-3 is more attractive than 7-4. If we get snubbed at 7-4, it would be an indictment of our scheduling philosophy.

I would argue going 1-4 against quality opponents is what would keep us out of the playoffs. And if we can’t beat quality opponents during the season, why do you think we would win in the playoffs after beating one more cupcake?

 

[kalm]

Stole some of this from EGRIZ but here is how the top conferences shake out, every other conference should just get 1 bid unless the committee decides to also take the loser of Kennesaw State and Monmouth, who would be 9-2. Also, if NC A&T decides not to play in the celebration bowl (I doubt it). So for the sake of this argument, lets say the loser of Monmouth/K State is out and NC A&T is out. That leaves these teams trying to get in. 1 from each conference will get an auto bid, so that leaves 14 spots up for grabs...Teams with a "*" are certain to get in, 7 of those would be at large, basically leaving 7 sports up for grabs. Best case scenario for us is SUU beating NAU, MSU beating UM, NDSU beating ISU, and one of the 8-2 Southland teams losing. Furman and Samford play each other, so do New Hampshire and Delaware so that helps our case and W. Carolina should lose its 5th game to North Carolina...

I didn't list the 5 one bid conferences...

It will be an interesting Saturday next weekend...

1.) Southland

* Sam Houston St 9-1 (vs. Houston Baptist)
* Central Ark 9-1 (vs. Abilene Cristian)
Nicholls St 8-2 (at SE Louisiana)
McNeese St 8-2 (at Lamar)

2.) Southern

* Wofford 9-1 (at (FBS) S. Carolina)
Furman 7-3 ( at Samford)
Samford 7-3 (vs. Furman)
W. Carolina 7-4 (at (FBS) North Carolina)

3.) CAA

* James Madison 9-1 (at Elon)
* Elon 8-2 (vs James Madison)
* Stony Brook 8-2 (at Maine)
Delaware 7-3 (at Villanova)
New Hampshire 7-3 (at Albany)

4.) Missouri Valley

* ND State 9-1 (at Illinois St)
* SD State 8-2 (at S. Dakota)
* S. Dakota 7-3 (vs. SD State)
* W. Illinois 7-3 (vs. S. Illinois)
Illinois St. 6-4 (vs. ND State)
N. Iowa 6-4 (vs. Indiana St)

5.) Big Sky

* S. Utah 8-2 (vs. NAU)
* Weber 8-2 (vs. ISU)
Montana 7-3 (at msu)
NAU 7-3 (at S. Utah)
EWU 6-4 (vs. PSU)

UNH finishes at 3-7 Albany and Delaware is at 4-7 Villanova (the list has it right but you had them playing each other in the last paragraph). Elon and SBU are locks ahead of us even with losses next week to finish at 8-3. The CAA could very well get 4 at-larges.

With the exception of UNI, I like our resume compared to the other potential 7-4's, even ISUr and USD. ISUr's best win would be USD and USD's would be WIU. Maybe a little better than our win against Montana, but SoS even after PSU will be comparable to theirs and they both would be finishing on 3 game losing streaks which the committee does not like. If games follow script, the Valley gets 3 in ahead of us.

The winner of Furman Samford is a lock ahead of us. I like our chances compared to the loser with the same record.

Weber is a lock ahead of us.

SHSU is a lock ahead of us.

That leaves four spots to divvy up between the rest. I'm not sure SoS is enough to overcome the 9-2 records of the Big South runner up and McNeese and Nichols in the eyes of the committee. In the past, 9-2 Patriot teams have stayed home. Take away our TTU loss and we are just one game behind Monmouth, Kennesaw, and McNeese as they didn't play an FBS. It will come down to how much the committee uses it's SRS(which may or may not help and no one knows as they don't publish it) and considers other computer rankings which have us light years ahead of these teams.

In a perfect world, 7-4 should be enough along with the head to head to overcome an 8-3 Montana. But...the committee last year chose a 7-4 UNH over Albany who had the same record and won the H2H by two scores at UNH just two weeks prior. If it comes down to us and Montana for the last spot, a Montana loss helps but if Montana is in ahead of the Big South #2 and SLC #3 and 4 then a Griz win raises our profile in comparison to other teams.

Hell, Sac State still has a case to be in the discussion with a high profile win over SUU, top 20 SoS, and strong finish. I don't think they'd get in but they deserve to be mentioned. Beating Davis will help us as well.

 

[luckyintheorder]

Would the committee really take 4 teams from the BSC this season? Should Montana win their overall record with their patsy wins is better. NAU and SUU play each other and are the class of the conference and Weber with a win is a lock. I am not a playoff prediction guy, but it isn't looking good for the Eags this season. Something to be said for ending with a 7-4 record though and am all for that.